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Interconnecting the Cyberinfrastructure

Robert Feuerstein, Ph.D.

Robert.Feuerstein@Level3.com

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Intercity and Transoceanic Networks

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• 40 10G DWDM Channels per fiber pair• NZ-DSF, Corning E-LEAF fiber• Dispersion compensation at amplifiers• BER < 10-13

Gateway/Regen

1 2 3 4 5

2.5G, 10G, 10GigE Waves

100kmErbium Amplifiers

Gateway/Regen

600 km Maximum

Amplifier Site

Long Distance Transport

ADM or Optical Switch for Protected Private Line Services

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Level 3 Built a Physically Diverse Network “Greenfield” Network built by Level 3 buried 42” to top of conduits Network ring topology built for reliability Uniform equipment and capacity availability makes ring

management possible

No NetworkSpurs

No Non-Diverse City Laterals

All diverse Gateway entrance facilities

95%+ diverse GatewayBuilding risers

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Network ReliabilityExample Network: A 20,000 mile Long Haul network, 50 metro markets with 12 mile metro rings

≈1 fiber cut per week:≈1 fiber cut per week:

20 card failuresper week:20 card failuresper week:

Long haul: 2-3 cuts per 1000 miles per yearMetro: 13 cuts per 1000 miles per year 45-50% of all FCC reportable outages in USA attributable to fiber cuts (1992-1999)

Typical electronics/optics card failure time is around 25 years, 20,000 mile 200Gb network will have around 25,000 cards. (Not all will cause a service outage)

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Diverse Un-Protected Wavelengths: 2 x 10G capacity

Wavelength Services

Diversely Routed Wavelengths can be used for Customer Provided Protection

Washington D.C.

New Orleans

WT Cards WT Cards

PRIMARY WAVELENGTH PATH

SECONDARY WAVELENGTH PATH

RING 5 RING 3

Nashville

Atlanta

WT Cards WT Cards

WT CardsWT Cards

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All previous comments as Level 3 representative

Disclaimer:All the following comments do not express the viewsof Level 3.

The following comments express the views of Robert Feuerstein.They apply to the next 5 years.

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Dark Fiber

Metro Networks• “short” distances

single channel multiple channels

• “long” distances single channel multiple channels

To WDM or not?

Long Haul NetworksDo you need 100G?

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Protected Wavelength Service

• Diverse Waves provide transparent SONET overhead bytes for protection switching by customer router or ADM• Diverse Waves provide full access to all bandwidth; e.g. two x 10G

• Protected Waves basically switch on loss of light or lots of bit errors• Protected Waves built end-to-end with 1+1 protection• Protected Waves provide access to one x 10G• Protected Waves will cost more than two x 10G waves

So, does anybody really want Protected Waves?

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Wavelengths on Demand: Layer 1

It’s NOT gonna happen, here’s why:

• Carrier must purchase multiple wavelength switching boxes: Big $$• Carrier must install Wavelengths throughout network: Big $$• Carrier must develop support systems to enable this product: Big $$• Carrier must train sales and operations staff to support new product• Carrier must price it low enough to generate customer interest

Carrier has to over-subscribe Wavelengths to enable dynamic provisioningand reasonable economics

So no guarantee that BW will be there exactly when customer wants it

For commercial customers, when they want bandwidth, THEY WANT BANDWIDTH!

So, is there demand for this product?

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“Wavelengths” on Demand: Layer 2/3

Maybe: here’s why:

• Ethernet/IP switches can support bursting of traffic

• Ethernet with MPLS, and IP switches, can provide protection

• Ethernet/IP switches perform stat muxing that can lower costs

• Carriers only need to add a few extra wavelengths to existing ones

• Carriers already have Ethernet and IP switches: minimal new training/support or systems development needed

• Carriers can provision oversubscription in a sensible way to provide economical usage based pricing

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1876: Alexander Graham Bell invents “electrical speech machine”

Early 1900’s: Lots of overhead wires and operators on roller skates

Early 1900’s: Development of “Ma Bell”, where “Ma” is short for Monopoly

1982: Judge Green and Breakup of Ma Bell

1996: Telecommunications Act

1997 - 2001: 100’s of Billions of $$ invested in telecom

2000 - 2001: Telecom crash

2000 – 2005: Major price cuts in telecom services, 100’s of bankruptcies

So what’s next?

A Short History of Telecom

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Optical Transport Services Pricing TrendsPrices in 2005 are about 10% of what they were in 2000

Prices in 2010 will be ±10% compared to today

Because 10x the bandwidth on the network means:– More real estate (large inflation)– More electricity (large inflation)– More equipment (modest price cuts per box)– Higher Right of Way fees– More equipment maintenance/service fees (modest cuts, per box)– More people for more work (modest increase, per person)

All of these force Service Provider costs to rise with increased bandwidth demand, even with smaller, less expensive, lower power consumption equipment and more efficient systems

If prices continue to fall dramatically in the short term, then bankruptcies will ensue, followed by consolidation and price increases

The era of collapsing bandwidth prices is coming to an end

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Summary

• Level 3 is a high reliability partner for Dark fiber and Wavelengths

• Dark Fiber is a reasonable choice in many cases

• Protected wavelengths make no sense

• Wavelengths on demand Layer 1: No prospects commercially

• Wavelengths on demand Layer 2/3: Possible

• Wavelength price cuts are coming to an end