1 Dr. Bill W. S. Hung 2 Neoclassical Trade Theory: The Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem Basic Assumptions: 1....
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Transcript of 1 Dr. Bill W. S. Hung 2 Neoclassical Trade Theory: The Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem Basic Assumptions: 1....
1
Dr. Bill W. S. Hung
2
Neoclassical Trade Theory:
The Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem
Basic Assumptions:
1. Two countries, two goods, two factors -- 2x2x2 mode
2. Identical technological in two countries
Production functions are same in two countries
3. Constant returns to scale
The sharp of PPC is unchanged
4. Two different factor abundance countries:
Labor-abundant and capital-abundant
And Two factor intensities commodities:
Labor-intensive and Capital-intensive
3
5. Identical preference and tastes
Two countries are facing the same utility functions
6. Perfect competition
Goods market and factors market
7. Factors are perfectly mobile only within a country
Factors are restricted to move across countries
10. Increasing opportunity costs:
The PPF curve is concave but not a straight line.
8. No transportation costs
9. No restriction on trade
4
Factor abundance:
Definition:
21 )L
K()
L
K(
Suppose: Country 1 is relative abundance of capital Country 2 is relative abundance of labor
Factor Price definition: w: labor wager: rental rate of capital
2)(
1)(
w
r
w
r
2)(
1)(
rw
rw OR
The greater the relative abundance of a factor, the lower its relative price.Since Country 1 has relative abundance of capital, thus its rental rate of capital is relatively lower than its wage.
21 )K
L()
K
L( or
5
Relative Factor Intensity:
CS )LK
()LK
(
Definition:
OR
CS )K
L()
K
L(
Commodity S (steel) is a capital-intensive goods.
Commodity C( clothes) is a
labor-intensive goods.
Similarly in terms of factor prices:
r r(w
)c
> (w
)S
ORw w
(r
)c
< (r
)S
6
The Edgeworth Box:
K
0c L
C1
C2 C3
C4 C5
L
0sK
S1S2S3S4
S5
Contract curve: production efficiency locus
(Increasing opportunity cost)
7
Country I: Capital abundant country
K2
L2
Steel
Clothes
S3
S2
S1
S0
C3
C2
C1
C0
steel
clotheso
PPFI
8
KI
LI
Clothes
Steel
S3
S2
S1
S0
C3
C2
C1
C0
Country II: Labor-abundant country
steel
clotheso
PPF1I
9
0X -Clothes
Y-Steel
PPF
PX
PY
E
(autarky price)
XYY
X
Y
X
Y
XXY MRS
MU
MU
P
P
MC
MCMRT
Marginal rate
of transformation
(MRT)
Marginal rate
Of substitution
(MRS)
CI0
The shape or pattern of CICsrepresent the aggregate consumers’ taste
or preference
10
K
L
PPFII
S
0 C
PPFI
PII
CI0
II
IILK IIor
KLI*
PI
ILK Ior
KL
Combining two countries input space, output space and consumer preference:
11
Increasing opportunity cost incomplete specialization
Different demand condition different autarky price ratio
Classical analysis:
Two countries with identical PPF or production condition are the same, there is no incentive for trade and of course no gains from trade.
Neoclassical analysis
Even two countries have the same production condition, but when the demand conditions are different the increasing opportunity costs would drive the two countries to trade.
The different prices in autarky indicates that there is a basis for gainful trade between two countries.
12
Trade direction, incomplete specialization, and consumption
PI
CI0
A
S
0 C
CI1
PPW
C
Only when PW > PI, Country-I has incentive to reallocate the production from point A to point P and to trade with other country (world), and through exchange (import) to consume at point C.
13
The Heckscher-Ohlin TheoremThe Heckscher-Ohlin TheoremA country will have comparative advantage in, and therefore, will export, that good whose production is relatively intensive in the factor with which that country is relatively well endowed.
Labor abundant country Exports(i.e., China) Labor-intensive products
ImportsCapital-intensive products
Capital abundant country Exports(i.e., U.S.A.) Capital-intensive goods
ImportsLabor-intensive goods
14
(A) Trade between two countries withIdentical Demand & Different Production Structures:
Country I: capital abundantCountry II: labor abundantGood X-clothes: labor-intensiveGood Y-steel: capital-intensive
The H -O Model
0
PPFI PPFII
Good X-Clothes
Good Y-Steel
e1
EII
C0(PX/PY)1
(PX/PY)2
(PX/PY)3
C1
CII’, cI’
I’s imports (X)
I’s exports (Y) e’y3
x3 II’s exports (X)
II’s imports (Y)
E’y1
x1x2,x4
y4,y2
15
Country I: capital abundantCountry II: labor abundantGood X: labor-intensiveGood Y: capital-intensive
The H-O Model: alternative case:(different consumption level)Good Y-Steel
Good X-Clothes0
PPFIPPFII
(PX/PY)1
e
E
(PX/PY)II
(PX/PY)3
I
C’I
e’
I’s exports
I’s imports
C’II
E’
II
II’s imports
II’s exports
C1
C2
C3
C4
16
(B) Trade between two countries withIdentical PPFsIdentical PPFs & Different Demand ConditionsDifferent Demand Conditions:
e
(PX/PY)2
W1
x4
y4
(PX/PY)3
EI’, eI’
c’W2
S2
C’
II’s imports (X)
y3
x3 x5
y5
II’s exports (Y)
y2
I’s imports (Y)
I’s exports (X)
x2
Good Y-Steel
Good X-Cloth0
PPFII
E1 S1
(PX/PY)1
y1
x1
PPFI
17
0X -Clothes
Y-Steel
PPFI,II
(C) No Trade between two countries withIdentical PPFs & identical Demand Conditions:
CI2
CI0
A
B
(autarky price)
PX
PY
CI1
Community Indifferent utility curves
E
No Incentive to trade
Why?
18
Gains From Trade
PW
C
I1
P
PW
I1*
C*
P*
3 important assumptions3 important assumptions:
1. No costs of factor mobility
2. Full employment of factors
3. No redistribution of income once trade
open (the different curves can show
welfare changes)
AI0
Good Y
Good X0
I0*
A*
Good X
Good Y
0
19
Gains from trade and specializationGains from trade and specialization
Good Y
Good X0
ECI1
Autarky pricePX
PY
C
CI2
( )’PX
PY
( )’PX
PY
E C: consumption gains consumption gains (or gains from exchangegains from exchange)
E’
C’
CI3
Worldtrade price
( )’PX
PY
E E’ and C C’: production gainsproduction gains (or gains from gains from specializationspecialization)
20
Concept CheckConcept Check:
Can you show that the production at less than complete specialization leads to a lower level of welfare than at complete specialization.
21
The Leontief Paradox
Leontief statistic is defined as (K/L)M
(K/L)X
Leontief’s result were startling. He found that the hypothesized reduction of US export would release $2.25 Million worth of capitalAnd 182.3 year of labor-time, for a (K/X)x of approximately $14,000Per labor-year. On the import side, to produce the foregone import would require $3.09 million worth of capital and 170,0 years ofLabor-time, yielding a (K/L)M of approximately $18,200 per labor-year.Thus, the Leontief statistic for the US was 1.3 (= $18,200/$14,000), Unexpected for a relatively capital-abundant country.
What are the implications of the Leontief Paradox?
22
Invalid assumptions to Heckscher-Ohlin Model
1. Demand reversal
2. Factor-intensity reversal
3. Transportation costs
4. Imperfect competition
5. Immobile or commodity-specific factors
6. US tariff structure
7. Different skill levels of labor
8. The role of natural resourcesothers
9. Income inequality
23
1. The Factor Price Equalization Theorem:
Given all the assumptions of the H-O model, free trade will lead to the international equalization of individual factor prices.(The impact of trade on factor prices)
2. The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem:
Free trade benefits the abundant factor and harms the scarce factor.(The impact of trade on income distribution)
3. The Rybczynski Theorem:
At constant world prices, if a country experiences an increase in the supply of one factor, it will produce more of the product intensive in that factor and loss of the other.(The effect of economic growth on trade)
24
Factor price equalization theorem
When home and foreign country trade with each other, the relative prices of goods converge. This convergence, in turn, causes convergence of the relative prices of factors.
Before trade: (w/r)II > (w/r)world > (w/r)I (Country-I wage is lower)
After trade: (w/r)I = world factor price = (w/r)II because the goods prices are equalized in two countries
Example: When trade open between China and Hong Kong, Wages increase in China, Wage decline in Hong Kong
25
(w/r)0 (w/r)1
When r, wIn Country II :(labor-abundant)
Increase produce clothes
i.e., Ic0 Ic
1
Decrease produce steel
i.e., Is0 Is
1
( K/L)c0
(w/r)0
K
LClothes
IC0
Steel
K
(w/r)0
L
(K/L)S0
IS0
(w/r)1
IC1
(K/L)c1
(w/r)1
IS1
(K/L)s1
After trade adjustment in Country II (labor-abundant) case: Producer adjusts output due to relative factor prices changes.
Both industries now employ more capital
26
0w/r
Pc/Ps
(Pc/Ps) I
<(w/r)I
Capital
abundant
country(w/r)I
(Pc/Ps)I(Pc/Ps)II
(w/r)II <
Labor
abundant
country(w/r)II
(Pc/Ps)II
< <
Trade Condition
(Pc/Ps)
(w/r)
world trade price
w/r
Pc/Ps
One important assumption is market perfect competitionBut in real world it seems FPE theorem does not work well.
27
The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem
With full employment both before and after trade, the increase in the price of the abundant factor and the fall in the price of the scare factor because of trade imply that the owners of abundant factor will find their real incomes rising and the owners of scarce factor will find their real incomes falling.
In labor-abundant country: if price of labor-intensive goods ---> wage ---> producer of labor-intensive goods and labor income
In capital-abundant country: if price of capital-intensive goods ---> capital rent ---> producer of capital-intensive goods and capital owner income
28
Steel
0 Clothes
Example: Tariffs can increase the trade prices. (From red to green line) i.e., production point shifts from P point to T point
Policy implication:Policy implication:Producer of steel and the capital owner will gain from the tariff. (Pro-tariff or welcome any protection).Producer of clothes and the labor will loss from the tariff.(Against tariff or reject any protection)
PC
PS( ) II
A
Country II’s PPF
PC
PS( ) II
PC W
PS r A to P :
T
[Pc/(Ps+ tariff )]w
PC W
(PS+ t) r
P to T :
PC
PS( ) < World price
P
PC
PS( ) World price
29
Rybczynski Theorem: The effect of factor endowment change
Autos
a0
t0Textiles
0
(PT/PA)
Example: The Growth Effects of Labor-Market Adjustment and MigrationMigration ---Labor Endowment moves out, PPF shifts in.
(PT/PA)
a1
t1
30
Autos(PT/PA)
a0
t0
Textiles0
Rybczynski Theorem:
a1
t1
(PT/PA)
Labor endowment increases, PPF shifts out
31
Exercise:Exercise:
One of the important changes in the world economy over the past three decades has been the rapid increase in capital investment in the countries of the Pacific Basin (notably Japan, Korea).
What are the implications of this investment for the commodity patterns of trade of these two countries, say, with respect to the United States? Explain.
(Hint: Think about Rybczynski theorem)
32
Invalid assumptions to Heckscher-Ohlin ModelCase of Demand ReversalCase of Demand Reversal
Demand Reversal outcome:Country 2: now exports S and imports CCountry 1: now exports C and imports S
P2
Country 2’s imports of C
Country 2’s exports of S
P1
Country 1’s imports of S
Country 1’s exports of C
Prediction of trade pattern from H-O model Country 2: exports C and imports SCountry 1: exports S and imports C
(Pc/Ps) world price
C1
CI11
C2
CI21
A1 CI10
A2
CI20
Now Country-1 prefers more steelBut Countyr-2 prefers more clothes
Steel
ClothPPF2PPF1
Steel: capital-intensiveClothes: labor-intensive
Country-1: capital abundantCountry-2: labor abundant
33
K
0LaborW
r( ) 1
A
B
Cloth
Steel
Case of Factor-intensity: No matter factor prices change, factor relative requirement ratio is always unchanged. If steel is capital-intensive, cloth is labor-intensive,then at any factorprices ratio, the factor input ratio is always (K/L)s > (K/L)c
KL( ) S1
KL( ) C1
At (w/r)1 :K K
(L
)S1
> (L
)C1
KL( ) S2
KL( ) C2
W r( ) 2
F
G
At (w/r)2 :K K
(L
)S2
> (L
)C2
Steel: capital-intensiveClothes: labor-intensive
34
Invalid assumptions to Heckscher-Ohlin Model
Case of Factor intensity Reversal
K
0L
Steel
At (w/r) 1 :K K
(L
)C1
< (L
)S1
(k/L) S1
(k/L) C1
Clothes
(w/r) 1
BA
(k/L) C2
(k/L) S2
(w/r) 2
F
G
At (w/r) 2 :K K
(L
)C2
> (L
)S2
35
Question:
Can you give any example of tradable goods that may have such factor-intensity-reversal problem?
Exercise:Show in a graph to illustrate that factor-intensity reversal can also occur of the two industry isoquants do not cross each other but are tangent to one another.