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Climate Prediction CenterEmbracing the Future

CPC Management Team, 32nd CDPW, Tallahassee, FL, 22 October, 2007

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Message

• NOAA/NCEP provide critical operational support for delivery of climate products and services:

– Observations– Models and Assimilation Systems – Computing Support– Products and Forecast Services

• CPC focus: deliver climate forecast products (weeks, months, seasons, years) to serve a diverse customer base.

• Collaboration is a key element of future success in addressing climate challenges:– CPO, NASA, NCAR, GFDL, ESRL, NCDC, IRI, COLA, Univ., RISAs, others

• New initiatives, such as the CTB, are opportunities to accelerate Research Operations Operations Research.

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Research, Development and Technology Infusion

Respond & Feedback

Respond & Feedback

The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services…

IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD

FeedbackFeedback

DistributeDistribute

LocalOfficesLocal

OfficesCentral

GuidanceCentral

Guidance

- Process- Assimilate- Predict

- Process- Assimilate- Predict

ObserveObserve

Products & Forecast Services

To Serve Diverse Customer Base

e.g., Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies…

To develop an appreciation for the full delivery of service, the path must be viewed in a larger context as an end-to-end forecast process

NCEPCPC

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Climate Mission

• Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years

• Official products for the U.S.

• Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labs

• Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of Products

“CPC serves the public by assessing and forecasting the impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather-related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains.”

2007/082007/08

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Climate/WeatherLinkage

Week 2 Hazards Assessment

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

CPC

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Lea

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Fo

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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Benefits

TPCOPCHPC

SWPCAWCSPC

Service Center Perspective

Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3Tropical Storms to Day 5Severe Weather to Day 3

• •

NDFD, Days 4 -7

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The NCEP Centers span Seamless Suite

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Climate/WeatherLinkage

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Climate Forecast System

Fo

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Fo

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Lea

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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Benefits

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model

Hurricane Models

Global Forecast System

North American ForecastRapid Update Cycle for Aviation

Dispersion Models for DHS-GFDL -WRF

NCEP Model Perspective

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NCEPs model production suite provides guidance for climate prediction

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Performance Goals • Exceeded official GPRA goal for US Seasonal Temperature Forecast skill• Unprecedented & sustained increases in skill during weak ENSO

Transition Activities• CTB Grants Program: FY07 AO ($580K– 4 projects); FY08 AO ($1.1M)

New & Improved Climate Products • Monitoring – stormtracks, monsoons, oceans, drought; GIS-conversion• Assessments – Climate Diagnostics Bulletin; Hazards (U.S., Africa, Tropics)• Outlooks – NAEFS week-2 for T; consolidation tool; objective verification tool

Outreach

• NOAA - 4 press conferences & 8 web articles (outlooks)

– El Niño 2006 - 07 – some impacts (e.g. fewer Atl Hurricanes in 2006);

• Lead role in NAME (e.g. May Issue of J. Clim. on NAME - 22 articles)

• Host/train international visitors—African Desk (6); Asia bi-laterals(3)

FY07 Highlights - CPC

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CPC has improved the skill of its official seasonal outlooks, in part, by using more objective techniques (e.g. consolidation tool). [O’Lenic et al. 2007].

U.S. Seasonal Temperature Forecast Skill

(0.5 Month Lead – 4 yr running avg vs. GPRA Goal) (0.5 Month Lead)

There is a regime dependence of skill depending on the influence of the major climate factors, including ENSO and trend. Note decrease in variability last 1-2 years.

Storm Track Monitoring ProductsStorm Track Monitoring Products

Global coverage (NH, SH, Alaska)

WX-CX linkage: Overlays of stormtracks, precipitation, low-level wind anomalies, wave heights, and sea ice

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/stormtracks/mstrack.shtml

Monitoring products (10, 30, 90 days)

Forecast products (operational and ensemble mean GFS; week 1 & 2)

Collaboration with EMC & OPC

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Monsoon Monitoring ProductsMonsoon Monitoring Products

Global and Regional Monsoons (Asian, American, African..)

Overlays of many fields (SST, soil moisture, winds, temperature, precip)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Global-Monsoon.shtml

Monitoring products (7, 30, 90 days)

Weekly updates to US and Global Hazards forecasters and monthly updates for Monthly Climate Review

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Ocean Monitoring Products

Climatology, monthly, pentad plots and animations

SST, Sea level, heat content, depth 20C, surface wind stress animations &30 day averages

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Monitoring (GIS Format)

GIS: Geographical Information System

A popular format that allows meteorological fields to be superposed over topography, rivers, roads, and cities.

GIS format is preferred by many users.

CPC is working with NCO to convert its monitoring and outlook products

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Climate Diagnostics Bulletin

• Electronic (PDF): b&w, color

• Improved graphics

• Expanded suite of products

ocean products based on GODAS;

intraseasonal monitoring based on CDAS & GDAS

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Climate Climate Test BedTest Bed

Climate Climate Test BedTest Bed

NCEP and CPO Climate Support: Climate Test Bed

Climate Community

Climate Community

Research &Development

Research &Development

NOAA ClimateForecast

Operations

NOAA ClimateForecast

Operations

Mission:Mission: To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.

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NCEP and CPO Climate Support: Climate Test Bed

• The CTB is a resource to accelerate scientific advances to operations – Bridging the “Valley of Death” between research & operational service applications

– Embracing the R2O and O2R paradigms

• The CTB emphasizes high profile science activities– CFS/GFS Improvements (CFSRR)

– Multi-model ensembles (IMME, NMME)

– Objective climate forecast products and applications (drought / NIDIS)

• Competitive Grants Program

• CTB-COLA Seminar Series

• CPC-RISA Program

• Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program (FY09)

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Future Challenges

• Climate– Warming trend

– Abrupt changes and regime shifts

– Natural variability (annual cycle, El Niño, monsoons, MJO, AO)

– Extremes (heat waves, storms, droughts)

Goal: Align infrastructure & establish partnerships to achieve mission goals focused

on these challenges!

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CPC Strategy (0-2 yr)

Strategic Challenges

• Improve products

• Improve models

• Meet National / International commitments

Address Challenges

• Product alignment (quality, consistency, reliability)

– Inventory

– ENSO composites

– Verification of official forecasts & tools

– Precipitation analyses & related products

– Coordination of drought, monsoon briefings with operations

• Next generation CFS (with EMC)

– CFS Reanalysis and Reforecasting

• Multi Model Ensemble Prediction System (w EMC)

– SI Forecast skill

• Agency support (e.g. USDA; USAID)

• Project support (e.g. AMMA, NAME)

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CPC Strategy (2-5 yr)

Strategic Challenges

• Improve products

• Improve models

• Meet National / International commitments

Address Challenges

• New Probabilistic Forecasts for weeks 2-4 (risks of heat or cold waves; heavy rain events)

• Objective seasonal drought prediction; NIDIS

• Objective seasonal TC forecasts (freq; intensity)

• Diagnostic and modeling studies

– Reduce tropical biases

– Understand climate processes

– Influences of MJO on ENSO & vice-versa

• Global Climate Training Program

• Provide leadership in NOAA’s CIS Program

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CPC Strategy (>5 yr)

Strategic Challenges

• Improve products

• Improve models

• Improve Climate Services

Address Challenges

• Collaborative product suites (air quality, ecosystems, human health, H2O mgmt)

• Earth System models (The “E” in NCEP)

• Seamless prediction (Wx-Cx link; SI & beyond)

• Physical understanding of trends

• National Climate Information Service (International?)

• Economic benefits of climate forecast products

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Message

• NOAA/NCEP provide critical operational support for delivery of climate products and services:

– Observations– Models and Assimilation Systems – Computing Support– Products and Forecast Services

• CPC focus: deliver climate forecast products (weeks, months, seasons, years) to serve a diverse customer base.

• Collaboration is a key element of future success in addressing climate challenges:– CPO, NASA, NCAR, GFDL, ESRL, NCDC, IRI, COLA, Univ., RISAs, others

• New initiatives, such as the CTB, are opportunities to accelerate Research Operations Operations Research.

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Back-up Slides

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Outline

• Message• The Climate Mission• NWS and NCEP Climate Support• FY07 Highlights - CPC• Future Challenges• CPC Strategy• Message

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NWS Support for Climate Services

• All NCEP products linked directly to:– 122 Weather Forecast Offices– 13 River Forecast Centers– 22 Central Weather Service Units

• Regional climate models for “downscaling” purposes

• NWS Regions assigned climate focal points for each station with training – outreach materials

• Coop modernization Climate Reference Network

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•Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations Daily•Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec•Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)•Backup in Fairmont, WV

NCEP Climate Support: Computing

Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)

$20M/Year $20M/Year InvestmentInvestment

Of which Of which $5M is for $5M is for ClimateClimate

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Collaborate Across NCEP, NOAA & Beyond

Enhance collaboration with NCEP centers • NCO: transition to compute farm; GIS-conversion; GrADS

• EMC: CFS reanalysis and re-forecast to support model calibration

• HPC: coordinate the International Desks

• OPC: probabilistic storm track products and ocean monitoring products

• TPC: need for and science behind seasonal TC forecasts

• SPC: bridge SPC day 4-8 and CPC day 8-14 outlooks

• AWC: backup site for CPC forecast products

• SEC: evaluate representation of stratosphere in SEC model

Enhance collaboration with Climate Program• Transition activities (CTB competitive grants programs)

• International Activities (Global Climate Training Program – FY 10-14)

• National Climate Information Service

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NCEP’s Future Location

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

UMD Research Park, College Park