1 An International Comparative Study on Housing Price and Property Tax Liabilities Sun-Tien Wu,...
-
Upload
andra-james -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
1
Transcript of 1 An International Comparative Study on Housing Price and Property Tax Liabilities Sun-Tien Wu,...
-
An International Comparative Study on HousingPrice and Property Tax LiabilitiesSun-Tien Wu, Chun-Hao Yueh
The 17th ERES Annual Conference, June 23-26, 2010, Milano, Italy
-
Contents of presentationPurpose of this studyThe conceptual framework of the studyEmpirical resultsDiscussionsConcluding Remarks
-
MotivationThe increasing house price trend in U.S., U.K., Taiwan and H.K. is concomitant with decreasing interest rates and financial deregulation since 1990s up to the eruption of financial catastrophe two years ago. Does growing financial integration contribute to a common trend among the housing markets?
-
The house price index of selected countries
Chart2
100100100100100100
99.4678881634101.7976303963105.492899.703264095100.678913738112.9032258065
98.1025838189102.3559852921107.80799.9670293439104.3530351438132.0564516129
94.9172019989101.6614462754108.714299.6373227827101.9568690096147.5806451613
91.8791426589101.1848018521110.475599.3076162216101.7172523962160.4838709677
90.7848924838102.7917744791116.510599.7692054072102.4361022364175
90.1256830859102.6828271824116.9105100.0329706561107.4680511182178.8306451613
86.1741374105101.7840119842116.7642100.1318826245108.0670926518172.7822580645
86.6646758164101.4026964456116.9194100.3626772173108.8658146965171.5725806452
88.3574147917102.7917744791114.2857101.2528849324109.5846645367183.5349462366
87.8156034161103.5816423805120.9268101.4836795252111.0623003195197.3790322581
86.3283259222103.3773661991118.9256101.3517969008110.1038338658197.6478494624
86.6742157154104.1263788642121.7056101.2528849324110.7028753994227.6209677419
85.2330695756106.3053247991122.2412101.2858555885111.5015974441235.4166666667
85.7863464381106.5368378047117.5099101.3517969008113.2188498403233.7365591398
85.8859972189106.0738117935116.5358101.1210023079114.1773162939229.9059139785
83.4438132474105.8695356121116.0174100.8242664029115.6150159744225.6048387097
82.817295463107.9667710745112.2988100.3626772173116.9728434505222.4462365591
82.1179975505108.770257388109.974499.9670293439119.0095846645210.3494623656
81.3631700405108.2799945526106.37799.1757335971119.1693290735206.9220430108
81.6262489877108.4161786736106.089998.6811737554119.9680511182219.4220430108
83.2241807873110.4589404875105.591697.9887899769121.8849840256228.8978494624
84.5897577868111.2896636252104.692597.9228486647124.4808306709235.3494623656
85.903185384110.5542693722104.645198.1206726014125.7587859425259.1397849462
86.3825557096111.4258477462101.413598.582261787127.8354632588308.6021505376
89.2579873253113.7818330383104.359298.8789976921129.6725239617336.8951612903
91.9524265492114.8985428299102.870899.0108803165130.5910543131341.8010752688
92.8387335597115.4841345499100.875899.2746455654130.2715654952328.2258064516
94.1560132708116.7234100504102.5699.6373227827129.6325878594281.5860215054
95.8497289391120.250578782599.9499.8021760633123.6022364217251.6129032258
97.2146776434122.701892959390.1899.9670293439108.8658146965209.0053763441
96.7036236226123.668800217990.71100.0329706561105.7108626198201.9489247312
98.8228025847125.398338553788.4100.1648532806104.9121405751206.6532258065
101.4573960784129.034454582690.23100.3956478734109.8242811502206.4516129032
104.7818790337132.139452539890.64100.857237059114.8562300319201.0752688172
107.2777687816133.855372463689.99101.5496208375118.9297124601192.0698924731
111.2315885366136.184120931588.25102.0771513353122.6437699681195.0940860215
114.1355220336141.318262290688.86102.6706231454127.4760383387181.5860215054
113.5615987096144.804575786585.53103.2311242994132.268370607176.0752688172
113.8009647444146.942666485183.09103.9564787339134.5047923323169.6908602151
117.2109855586148.808388941881.63104.6488625124137.4201277955163.3064516129
120.8444868725153.465885877781.38105.4731289153139.6166134185163.7096774194
125.4757599809157.292659675981.91106.2314540059146.1261980831158.5349462366
127.6679096566158.286803758782.95106.7919551599153.3945686901148.8575268817
131.4871524211160.697262699282.83107.9788987801158.3067092652148.7231182796
141.0154686803166.471469426785.68109.7263435542166.2539936102145.564516129
150.4878754989171.769031730983.71110.6824925816172.803514377138.373655914
156.0128869875175.105542693784.87112.1332014507175.5191693291131.25
160.4920665011177.693040991488.87113.353115727175.8785942492126.4784946237
165.8333562558182.759090290192.47114.6060006594175.8785942492120.6317204301
171.1530153801188.492441781394.9116.0237388724176.7172523962119.5564516129
175.5539415351193.776385673490.68117.7382129904174.9874268971129.7715053763
181.3791295668199.182895274495.5119.0570392351173.9478973773148.3870967742
191.0899404296208.252757728496.9121.299043851171.8195955704155.6451612903
196.3913922006215.892686912794.82122.8816353445171.7168486671156.8548387097
193.2334552439222.061827590996.42124.0685789647167.9687019841168.0779569892
193.1359248786230.40991420497.95125.1566106166164.8883388178181.25
196.7994593878240.637341686102.15127.0359380152163.2877995001190.5913978495
196.2500163663249.3258886014102.45128.684470821164.6870090452188.6424731183
194.8384091213254.6234509056109.53130.9924167491165.7770801111181.7204301075
197.9568004703256.9249625494108.74133.9597757995168.2633832821184.4758064516
200.273658051258.6545008852118.13138.5426969997170.0936508384187.9704301075
202.6861630319256.1759498842120.46143.6201780415172.6255558576186.9623655914
204.8645570773253.9016750647123.95145.6313880646173.7735349298188.1048387097
207.37179443251.7091107177125.76147.0820969337178.2189052401194.6908602151
211.3267180291249.4484543102126.45150.2472799209180.8686771321202.1505376344
213.197158205245.1450360888123.99153.3465215958182.2643363434209.7446236559
210.2568800959232.5343864905123.63154.5994065282182.8218579254228.2930107527
203.7416026305217.3498570067143.03156.3138806462183.9055442311252.0833333333
194.3669132118212.6923600708135.82156.7095285196185.0975527891253.8306451613
182.2027902746205.2022334196132.62156.9073524563187.6957141615248.4543010753
174.5058732272190.0994144083129.87155.9841740851189.1211459868217.7419354839
170.2184366859176.0724499523127.25153.7421694692188.7987543252217.8091397849
173.7714950874181.4244859049139.52151.7969007583186.8678083961236.0215053763
179.1267947347187.430205638145.05152.2255192878188.5523138804256.3172043011
179.2261947093185.3329701757151.7153.7091988131189.469433533267.8091397849
UK
US
TW
CAN
KOR
HK
original
UKHPUSHPTAIHPCANHPKORHPHKHPUKYUSYTAIYCANYKORYHKYUKIUSITAIICANIKORIHKIUKTUSTTAITCANTHKTTAIDPCANDPUSDPUKDPKORDPHKDPHKHPFTAIHPFKORHPFUSHPFUKHPFCANHPFOSTA
1991Q1100100100.001001001002569.500580517323460.153345268457855.462575736424411.36379703591221771.339991933620.267638286513.16679.1910.511.5833109.5000.76377853042.32485999270.17377867971.52195340810.35846929631632.2541000.3668935165.751887578690.72528633194.2042785031105.107770884784.525934747696.6802930308
1991Q299.4678881634101.7976303963105.4999.703264095100.678913738112.90322580652551.101464031223582.889373630859513.60612384524227.25811936821244179.1238970634083.111402782611.66678.6666710.4710.08331010.5000.75558189852.5041622560.16434309771.53590684350.3319361331491632.25-3700871.210.36196754156.151930585680.364888736385.655533809107.805924515988.161065051199.4188562975.1394268918
1991Q398.1025838189102.3559852921107.8199.9670293439104.3530351438132.05645161292560.027944113923616.99929535260014.566547310323973.28583294521278283.1466189435025.747203546610.83338.410.229.66667109.0000.76651843392.82063577130.17674185451.54930995890.2896779891-271632.25-6400-515.211.96344420160.697735463385.27078008189.7035649988108.344069135988.886088931699.9650605876.1644815439
1991Q494.9172019989101.6614462754108.7199.6373227827101.9568690096147.58064516132585.678997343823605.182902017960871.934728299723643.1672222641319046.2603002235524.006669109510.57.596679.548.41667108.5000.78857875562.64779892580.18324530551.56218353020.2698468333-61632.255100-1268.12-1.28235769167.076076131292.154367722395.3834660632108.487841898789.0797890682100.11098660186.4383390421
1992Q191.8791426589101.1848018521110.4899.3076162216101.7172523962160.48387096772593.603811171823753.925945723761967.245908888423570.32707952851327521.5659323535644.279074023710.56.59.147.75108.5000.81056553942.46504680880.17612758911.58107528530.2373710159373345000-1448.51-0.13417414170.054698667495.368935639898.0359241545108.104534030588.56337145999.72193801865.7082165083
1992Q290.7848924838102.7917744791116.5199.7692054072102.43610223641752572.826928673723894.363409091762332.265275087523560.36662442941344053.3646822835987.788396793410.16676.59.077.41667107.0000.80333065492.34442964340.17578359821.59967350090.2202395309163343800476.410.38307849173.372010643398.9490215757100.9899845918107.498212228187.746494787599.10653547214.5532983672
1992Q390.1256830859102.6828271824116.91100.0329706561107.4680511182178.83064516132566.607990679523998.865989219263485.207677349423613.20986741121352703.0465904636608.86159159539.666676.006679.26.5106.5000.80988723342.27773977450.18167674451.61798289550.217464057-73342700-419.982.69122740178.6426903505104.6372072105.6835155331107.282164933887.455421641398.88725248654.1417727739
1992Q486.1741374105101.7840119842116.76100.1318826245108.0670926518172.78225806452583.6005506624152.141786072564384.133699396323583.3543141581379631.7028027936705.70526647047.3333369.278.25106.5000.84348705592.2314641630.17822818221.63600856680.2255233618233341600-2074.970.32-41671181.7525851529107.993445843108.4528713449107.133685106987.255379837998.73654891093.8589492881
1993Q186.6646758164101.4026964456116.92100.3626772173108.8658146965171.57258064522598.510497449224073.507893098666091.777808893923639.31420642511401697.2937667137285.9981696808669.316.416678.833336.5000.86053233542.32991418430.1881652631.64717149610.2338400965-24760.75-4200-39.700.43-29006180.800863992106.9663360721107.6053653372106.586211352886.517787133498.18087576652.8161245571
1993Q288.3574147917102.7917744791114.29101.2528849324109.5846645367183.53494623662569.18693404924111.531959673166457.523343485123803.98686565291433626.8097178537498.7491807657669.3168.56.5000.84668025872.41937897830.18578301471.65805822110.209697504516760.75-23001789.760.38469200180.8442117183107.0131174983107.6439664107106.355277520686.206657862897.94648329072.3762431755
1993Q387.8156034161103.5816423805120.93101.4836795252111.0623003195197.37903225812605.682545714324191.245528610167783.367692165923776.10720214331461298.8299967338159.4185364808669.295.758.56.5000.86535782122.53773221330.19203078011.66867495350.207115228-12760.75-3000-171.880.79139719182.9184594389109.2516724326109.4910803309106.669793158986.630394048398.26570935842.9753306813
1993Q486.3283259222103.3773661991118.93101.3517969008110.1038338658197.64784946242632.784775923124411.84820449767641.16819933323900.93321714251477327.0104094637932.02043025985.6666769.125.583338.56.5000.89324412772.48747793160.1947964581.67902774660.202627288-2760.752100-696.39-0.51178203188.4471553211115.2183124459114.414374219106.882046192386.916355316398.48114125733.3796289893
1994Q186.6742157154104.1263788642121.71101.2528849324110.7028753994227.62096774192648.901259784924561.543603483668672.217952911224203.59635865451523204.1800826538978.73162737125.333336.029.125.758.56.7500.89671274082.29957073470.18186109681.6730546270.1768652373481253.257900276.830.32691454187.8383371197114.5612679785113.8722226893106.800554124386.806563834298.39842870113.2244033857
1994Q285.2330695756106.3053247991122.24101.2858555885111.5015974441235.41666666672659.950123989724797.641700959669825.37407636824510.03793190011555781.0452608538648.50469454725.256.896678.937.166678.57.2500.90437891282.59680172780.18084927581.6671147130.179981490671253.25-800035.200.4316788195.2354481337122.5443257373120.4593369419106.843134983786.863931572998.44164728443.3055111519
1994Q385.7863464381106.5368378047117.51101.3517969008113.2188498403233.73655913982684.585472140224826.272218834569176.099937299924997.75486075211587022.5759189538283.32289027295.416677.503338.877.258.57.7500.90614631062.55257150030.19314880031.66120813720.1823663575-401253.251400369.180.9232683197.7240351099125.2300409484122.6754192352106.910172885586.954249450198.50968919763.4332045461
1994Q485.8859972189106.0738117935116.54101.1210023079114.1773162939229.90591397852730.230934585925052.802644009571298.300619160825246.57025657091645422.5564540337914.53452413915.916678.133339.017.333338.58.5000.90765764512.48050341520.1892001741.65533501590.1950244689171253.252100382.440.51-223954196.7837446323124.2152673188121.8380922308107.032550569287.119124726798.63389970413.6663088257
1995Q183.4438132474105.8695356121116.02100.8242664029115.6150159744225.60483870972700.482752612624993.333151957570839.225810072125419.74608948411692655.9958113937438.22295666366.583338.8333399.599.0000.93799194162.29708066440.19418710031.68506630110.2030523014-9-1796.55000-1029.480.77-99450196.0045094599123.3743066549121.1441846903107.030225964987.115992866798.63154028473.6618809333
1995Q282.817295463107.9667710745112.30100.3626772173116.9728434505222.44623655912704.617867283624879.2485150671876.976682500925418.44180434851750028.1750261936960.77165281366.7598.959.2599.0000.93993367412.23796949030.19792435071.71542624010.2094057931-3-1796.52100548.970.73-59033195.44613682122.7717036891120.6469548437106.712631851286.688109156498.3091896363.056929566
1995Q382.1179975505108.770257388109.9799.9670293439119.0095846645210.34946236562726.943079048625037.928759344773148.918512447825369.28949795231797641.2848988336548.15735072076.758.766678.848.0833399.0000.95739095952.33674013930.215229461.7464379380.2265410173-41-1796.5-2700-298.921.09-263968194.1933318123121.4196603416119.531334204106.591683807886.525159985298.18643018122.8265484566
1995Q481.3631700405108.2799945526106.3899.1757335971119.1693290735206.92204301082746.251532664425160.72129231674517.822879542125355.39929143311793959.7545962236647.6480767026.666678.716678.747.7598.7500.97706697672.41154649880.22159246721.77812509930.2281211179-12-1796.5-2000-404.130.0937761191.656304221118.681667393117.2721156287106.463963862186.353087261398.05679740282.5832682683
1996Q181.6262489877108.4161786736106.0998.6811737554119.9680511182219.42204301082762.742140656625191.888030698174544.06488810125225.45767618231844275.5941875937135.41729199186.166678.333338.7798.5000.98384443012.27964987560.22294769291.77253430470.2156142751641.55400437.290.43283730189.8267702434116.7072106912115.642918863106.152964298785.934088163597.74114006951.9908781609
1996Q283.2241807873110.4589404875105.5997.9887899769121.8849840256228.89784946242807.525860811425415.242343190775915.094972446625345.22369386981863559.2623580137189.81151632585.916678.258.646.58.766678.5000.96758982682.32868458770.22147196811.7669798340.21225312631441.5-13001664.291.02111860192.6274353135119.7297246126118.136906146105.952469777485.663968737597.53764278731.6089773965
1996Q384.5897577868111.2896636252104.6997.9228486647124.4808306709235.34946236562845.747647101825522.692972975276471.761965627225574.74747762831881133.1876550537584.33891394665.758.258.55.9166711.08338.5000.9644616572.25340761210.23120277861.76146133330.208719813-1541.53500975.971.39118193195.376470625122.6965190315120.5849172205106.081161405385.837350575897.66826180051.8541084393
1996Q485.903185384110.5542693722104.6598.1206726014125.7587859425259.13978494622854.228743433225699.824044634876775.381312863325813.18021136561899676.7237001138330.045182594968.258.344.8333311.04678.5000.95820442072.32106473360.22858947461.75597845340.18003690471641.5-13001161.900.68792434197.6205951513125.1184072089122.5833061353106.35061374186.200374511697.94174966272.3673596359
1997Q186.3825557096111.4258477462101.4198.582261787127.8354632588308.60215053762887.899893373725828.848012023578793.337779033726000.95395622991881792.6305194838703.052186617268.266678.254.7511.388.7500.9628563532.17517567710.2362542681.75011314170.1481030105-179306400640.941.111235518203.2851331965131.2316498392127.6275672288106.593838738886.528063250398.18861738612.8306531564
1997Q289.2579873253113.7818330383104.3698.8789976921129.6725239617336.89516129032931.997847154626106.287403442979666.321977465826069.02338453271947227.0485602839450.88165659566.258.58.24.7511.418.7500.93507927592.17107840330.23582081391.7442866980.133892773539307002592.320.98771248213.9910104014142.7855708124137.1611319123106.917726956986.964426792798.51735640463.4475934961
1997Q391.9524265492114.8985428299102.8799.0108803165130.5910543131341.80107526882985.979231919926358.710042119580504.93503702526279.8046093051958043.8514232239155.90412539316.916678.58.234.7511.60338.7500.91327681282.22360940630.232565021.73849874040.14178976910930-13002350.980.49-362610222.107957148151.5454845923144.3892586095107.633490652187.928750791399.24383993034.8109758998
1997Q492.8387335597115.4841345499100.8899.2746455654130.2715654952328.22580645163023.760573090726491.33073762884617.197782190126379.89012737471994894.4862181138032.23466067957.166678.58.335.5833313.11339.5000.91151602282.26766447640.24872870621.73274889210.1378451158-37930-10001075.96-0.17258103223.479473069153.0256422908145.6105911072108.401368251988.9632860751100.02321785896.2736245572
1998Q194.1560132708116.7234100504102.5699.6373227827129.6325878594281.58602150543056.792151603326654.060397786383666.955046642526512.58837476761822834.3469020536365.76345020767.258.58.476.3333317.276710.0000.9159907612.3124406670.2580567271.75017066360.1666651124-14-560.25-19001073.87-0.34-1232160219.9537496038149.2206359835142.4709406079108.984440929889.7488399946100.6150230847.384257905
1998Q295.8497289391120.250578782599.9499.8021760633123.6022364217251.61290322583091.533607837926752.966956393184427.718774026326498.65132571361755960.8641118435517.60259218947.333338.58.526.516.926710.0000.90276348992.28468496070.24047866841.76765082150.198745340247-560.2512002317.74-3.22-956335210.0596147547138.5427578465133.6602310541109.587933034290.5619043106101.22755355278.5337860543
1998Q397.2146776434122.701892959390.1899.9670293439108.8658146965209.00537634413147.730410374927042.74754363285496.028973696826465.79615241721748734.0144591234681.52267968517.58.496678.526.7514.846710.0000.90617545822.15702694830.24873842541.7851903260.2338342908-13-560.2560001145.25-7.87-749148200.1206000485127.8164447879124.8095560671110.40778010691.6664562903102.059679288210.0954258509
1998Q496.7036236226123.668800217990.71100.0329706561105.7108626198201.94892473123198.329687401527435.948299402384661.919620797826785.13482873941769884.9628287434588.84215533076.757.928.416.8333312.06679.0000.9259139762.22512262420.25068810671.80279062650.25383184493-560.25-1900-53.62-1.69-323170182.1154977304108.3851057845108.7760443522111.213179589492.7515435273102.87714105711.6295459677
1999Q198.8228025847125.398338553788.4100.1648532806104.9121405751206.65322580653223.921267372427634.791011277187304.430397566327203.26854460561815558.677100634364.27786624175.666677.758.216.7510.70338.7500.92549281232.09965667530.2716663141.804637410.2279858123-43144560001164.71-0.43127769178.6688095148104.6653953395105.7067746026111.673442693.3716401733103.344297322312.5062521961
1999Q2101.4573960784129.034454582690.23100.3956478734109.8242811502206.45161290323250.180501457827617.832789583888546.57529189727656.87378597711873358.0738365135242.20587103275.166677.758.076.333339.383338.2500.90701479752.21041562870.25133291221.80632595720.2103585979471445-42002532.322.622975178.5354877225104.5215127391105.5880517828112.302012878894.2184914579103.982281555713.7035491021
1999Q3104.7818790337132.139452539890.64100.857237059114.8562300319201.07526881723300.744531053327837.178403088487631.863127400128178.69180010131946298.5056001735837.93113472385.083338.103337.976.258.873338.5000.8920405752.41270802140.26279826641.80786186680.2052720802-231445-68002352.302.69-242108180.8820172201107.0539176842107.677632143113.251820705595.4981351273104.946314438815.512737367
1999Q4107.2777687816133.855372463689.99101.5496208375118.9297124601192.06989247313328.829312441728199.146877427487713.00227245828548.74586265431984092.8779669236505.21343311685.416678.373337.866.416678.623338.5000.87891354442.48551307410.26807309871.80925051680.1889671355-81445-9002275.422.18-17142181.8839960734108.1352662058108.5698925367114.430267838397.0858167307106.14241090717.7574364139
2000Q1111.2315885366136.184120931588.25102.0771513353122.6437699681195.09408602153361.247253718627975.995824693289225.682975512829061.67873255522018203.7314237638026.4289584845.916678.686677.736.758.673339.0000.85749016622.46465025660.26909639071.80059647720.193826369561461.7515003060.081.98-24310181.3751046931107.5860640546108.1167256642115.558187284898.6054241068107.287222947219.9058906264
2000Q2114.1355220336141.318262290688.86102.6706231454127.4760383387181.58602150543370.26237947828124.255145033190632.22130323329569.50437575352024126.9838898737672.024284476969.246677.647.333338.573339.5000.83311090982.26254252240.29423990241.79204757180.209411001991461.7584003503.992.58-226780182.91056858109.2431565158109.4840535351116.8374746845100.3289643603108.585669944222.3426696104
2000Q3113.5615987096144.804575786585.53103.2311242994132.268370607176.07526881723390.934300420227856.705758350592003.877313847229901.11855958652032895.6930571138080.673685292469.57.577.58.459.5000.84851589972.39685789810.34850309241.78360132010.2220334468-411461.75-4500-266.242.56-149685182.1172723622108.3870209901108.7776246587118.3401612094102.3534826309110.110861864425.2049779114
2000Q4113.8009647444146.942666485183.09103.9564787339134.5047923323169.69086021513402.996879252327783.251765395691402.370017660229936.00667070672029972.5265656237873.19236554269.57.487.58.483339.5000.85387296742.29734979010.38442981251.77525547840.2308720584-71461.754600692.641.19-78427181.7700993019108.0123473387108.4684676635119.4522928118103.8518195835111.239649609627.3233595329
2001Q1117.2109855586148.808388941881.63104.6488625124137.4201277955163.30645161293504.527720405927544.105265895888992.482099798330005.54853390142066039.654636138142.80927064385.833338.623337.367.083338.358.0000.84309527942.35826171260.36285455371.75033613720.2299868778-111937.75-22002348.211.56-141893180.5405996778106.6854554624107.3736004266120.3544391589105.0672505682112.15530719829.0417624968
2001Q2120.8444868725153.465885877781.38105.4731289153139.6166134185163.70967741943511.157825162827553.556972706187175.168710545729775.25367707222081468.1755272437675.72560627985.333337.347.166.333337.993337.0000.82042208672.33812896540.34374823661.72602120120.21119849-161937.7517003661.541.17135462179.8074175884105.8941958805106.7207030749121.4459414087106.537794298113.263156629431.120849451
2001Q3125.4757599809157.292659675981.91106.2314540059146.1261980831158.53494623663533.037254332727456.921469339986655.705300739429131.75701023532085727.2041896937389.096732812556.566676.935.666677.516676.0000.80176788072.44364922690.30581511941.70228952860.2237405105121937.75-22003410.983.48-346885180.6219767794106.7732786816107.4460665914122.9212440141108.5254191485114.760554507433.930997026
2001Q4127.6679096566158.286803758782.95106.7919551599153.3945686901148.85752688173593.531132185627644.567955521988789.598449452228770.54378898652080035.991533537330.287829944.166675.156676.494.166676.973335.1250.80079653012.32465700350.2673374761.67912137520.2211302679171937.7560001484.073.88-110585182.1884368725108.4638226489108.840996529124.6170256195110.8100878309116.481733449237.1611116807
2002Q1131.4871524211160.697262699282.83107.9788987801158.3067092652148.72311827963661.868630952927810.25838962790448.824499058129066.84628049172181579.1776651637292.63924860344.755.973.756.823335.1250.79360428982.30308886660.26342117081.6474209190.208119542344105.2524002823.222.62-93670183.2659366683109.6266743471109.8005081881125.8996024777112.5380598597117.783519170239.6041564057
2002Q2141.0154686803166.471469426785.68109.7263435542166.2539936102145.5645161293683.32393088527712.68701245591967.850879359529523.94319666292210878.4741722837879.121739159644.755.724.083336.85.1250.74636917812.1508415430.25028963991.61711611340.1844721498234105.2591008144.974.2566895185.1267702092111.6349099418111.4575771595127.3560365283114.5002637502119.261765903342.3783632704
2002Q3150.4878754989171.769031730983.71110.6824925816172.803514377138.3736559143720.56599355527785.776041829892405.677099871129660.06765460532210279.9703236338212.539093245544.755.44.56.745.1250.71122414521.99951825430.25471592151.58811381650.1778989792-144105.2598007328.983.50-202697188.3892181644115.155785918114.3627812836129.8713083315117.8890036082121.814708361847.1694379503
2002Q4156.0128869875175.105542693784.87112.1332014507175.5191693291131.253751.307077454927798.755372195992640.902427902729960.71506223472241191.3001173337993.46536308344.455.024.56.713335.0000.69346040292.07618219470.25826030241.56032940630.1614260752-124105.25-32005110.251.45-49498188.9435412275115.7540185282114.8564049892132.7662529898121.7892637464124.753009949752.683711213
2003Q1160.4920665011177.693040991488.87113.353115727175.8785942492126.47849462373784.329348492627764.525009108892738.89839067730309.2286520472223917.4967924737222.11973753293.833334.254.54.583336.465.0000.69202438032.29245772020.24903163871.52857938650.1768712328214562.5-63003997.680.19-113390188.8169796862115.6174316779114.7437021609135.3591821406125.2826286986127.384772812357.622707144
2003Q2165.8333562558182.759090290192.47114.6060006594175.8785942492120.63172043013849.22466547427901.405321748691405.152608832429757.3146668872226441.8423346435783.50960803893.754.244.2256.315.0000.68271421782.08456025880.2615681031.49826080930.1983633142-254562.5121005443.920.00-175752189.077207478115.8982728723114.9754345484137.5859839134128.2827227297129.644924890261.8643058362
2003Q3171.1530153801188.492441781394.9116.0237388724176.7172523962119.55645161293896.694143918828322.58561046395574.785869487129975.36874305422248143.7063041338182.71336903793.543.954.666676.066675.0000.67971214272.15310846320.24895094211.46927712620.1968414336284562.5-25004378.920.45129342188.875199699115.6802634677114.7955469791139.9308925322131.4419380837132.024952673766.330873742
2003Q4175.5539415351193.776385673490.68117.7382129904174.9874268971129.77150537633939.288356249228654.089541259597028.228689287730010.40988259562304871.6429235138036.42337019283.6666743.744.56.115.0000.67810420182.13705585710.24139944881.44154019790.182765006184562.524004141.91-0.92316908189.6527295376116.5193837133115.4879359229142.4186195352134.7935677725134.549937799771.0694812513
2004Q1181.3791295668199.182895274495.5119.0570392351173.9478973773148.38709677423960.166448698828781.200199481697764.56620976730360.95339287872304226.2032103938727.40868697693.9166743.794.166676.153335.0000.66372184312.06996331970.22841887161.42492788640.1476314964364791.7558005123.89-0.56799708190.0021120663116.8964418515115.7990604457144.8935013504138.1278915783137.061885358675.783621324
2004Q2191.0899404296208.252757728496.9121.299043851171.8195955704155.64516129033998.337596911828752.54165166899109.001560618530915.42745680762322455.1255290738882.97985567784.2543.693.756.016675.0000.63147399962.13098114380.23515523991.40893192090.1513808-144791.75-20009435.56-1.147820194.9829344701122.2718097297120.2344739718147.4572414452141.5819311114139.664022007380.6670181156
2004Q3196.3913922006215.892686912794.82122.8816353445171.7168486671156.85483870974011.31980870129003.881806043699001.945560247531181.05912010012328342.9709861238901.30559073074.666674.423.613.833335.836675.1250.62043147682.36879671630.23006571331.39351364170.14770238164791.75-111005019.73-0.05194423196.3707093702123.7695143285121.4702850616150.9301877638146.2609131602143.188981855487.2822654823
2004Q4193.2334552439222.061827590996.42124.0685789647167.9687019841168.07795698924051.575170285629233.990219349896947.021554036731278.79806304352355741.9982429239404.87764186054.754.943.564.255.615.0000.63424623742.23616048770.22362126881.37863731460.1376389276194791.758200-1017.45-2.00394853196.0612843631123.4355788638121.194742641154.1937353756150.6577794776146.501406879593.4986514449
2005Q1193.1359248786230.40991420497.95125.1566106166164.8883388178181.254069.624173483329543.985110469698031.709545505431353.10637240672295008.1800638939956.69855057654.755.443333.614.255.585.2500.63976613642.244317190.22162695941.35940449850.129513904185669700325.76-1.65331132197.4747142947124.9609707041122.453399491156.2856388857153.4761296834148.624640354197.4832967336
2005Q2196.7994593878240.637341686102.15127.0359380152163.2877995001190.59139784954095.360923725829409.498547983297927.186879804631567.08099507212314689.4409353941100.71161868454.755.916673.674.255.535.7500.62732550652.06673014090.21944919631.34098820440.128049878985669121004703.79-0.86112937199.6237594495127.2802479954124.3671203939158.2568945749156.1319351975150.6254190927101.2381327749
2005Q3196.2500163663249.3258886014102.45128.684470821164.6870090452188.64247311834052.299011448829509.893661965897900.526915844932164.9633738642351099.4372604341628.01962754134.583336.426673.74.333335.536677.0000.63345674071.86797638010.21493924541.32333240050.131408829715566916100133.190.75-64515202.3213791678130.1915540421126.7693459737160.8404642989159.6126905134153.2476823546106.1593009259
2005Q4194.8384091213254.6234509056109.53130.9924167491165.7770801111181.72043010754102.180272299229693.1320787392101139.94045241132633.05686376192420762.7989129441759.37800443274.56.973.694.833335.726677.7500.64109421.89972880140.20600598371.30638605390.1392267904295669-700-240.010.58-210743202.6576009338130.5544089151127.0687508606163.1382994822162.7084854343155.5799316943110.5362036334
2006Q1197.9568004703256.9249625494108.74133.9597757995168.2633832821184.47580645164178.125566263230074.8138129191100429.12450523832703.77741130462564144.1085842342461.98684297114.57.433333.635.333335.813338.0000.63666534811.80227092640.20491691631.28360963490.133368443656937.7595002931.751.33205813203.6441180536131.6190709342127.947242608165.0086251304165.2283113488157.4782687855114.0987887365
2006Q2200.273658051258.6545008852118.13138.5426969997170.0936508384187.97043010754145.962196430129871.7469089225100831.21946505432661.97218671152540637.6495066942479.40211811154.57.896673.525.916675.98.0000.62555845111.74347967150.18526978631.2619487570.128427378756937.7576004716.020.98189493205.0013470149133.0838099613129.1558525935166.9685391745167.8688366516159.4675360178117.8320212801
2006Q3202.6861630319256.1759498842120.46143.6201780415172.6255558576186.96236559144200.34876853829868.3887701217102957.66919152132701.78785830192568878.5413044542629.71354001644.666678.253.4266.138.0000.61978253441.69485827880.18944683881.24131817930.1325234536-156937.7573003424.961.35-142545209.2080525878137.6237409558132.9019164532169.0964258836170.7356657932161.6272916035121.8852071509
2006Q4204.8645570773253.9016750647123.95145.6313880646173.7735349298188.10483870974273.157522867230408.30235756103715.41238696432675.55020924552579153.5796554343553.41746237264.916678.253.3866.106677.7500.61359528341.73523135330.17785863291.22164112220.1337008298506937.75-14003604.660.61-33462210.8340972601139.3785893707134.3499063531171.0351792897173.3476820906163.5950812797125.5781330379
2007Q1207.37179443251.7091107177125.76147.0820969337178.2189052401194.69086021514308.256551377730435.0881655899103152.08508214433210.47603859742646801.2047231244498.84840288025.258.253.2966.343337.7500.60787120321.64575962210.18157207961.19612607940.1276745463-97453.5122003489.492.38316030212.597808471141.2820092923135.9204880616172.3877225237175.1699174295164.9678812469128.1544492967
2007Q2211.3267180291249.4484543102126.45150.2472799209180.8686771321202.15053763444298.256404008930226.2709152394104557.26933687433617.6932426932646843.9223498245137.96793937695.416678.253.2866.416677.7500.59320308871.53202416180.17542388641.17185981720.1246613674357453.5163006256.371.42216665216.3041660576145.2819582769139.220992926173.3883123766176.5179779897165.9834567071130.0603668611
2007Q3213.197158205245.1450360888123.99153.3465215958182.2643363434209.74462365594306.987906574130463.2116058952108111.86672082233502.29871263052667555.498447946156.70096123375.758.176673.46.256.556677.5000.59189826751.67014579570.17367993751.14874961520.1198585244157453.5-149002320.470.75308238219.287744814148.5018750112141.8778645226174.6184800753178.1753409464167.2320483485132.4035829327
2007Q4210.2568800959232.5343864905123.63154.5994065282182.8218579254228.29301075274277.237195771730512.1202260067105005.12891929133690.55040968512715632.5680319546821.69588876835.666677.523333.486.166676.896.7500.5986282551.75416164090.18377412111.12671168990.1030569757-407453.5-7800-171.970.301018130220.8821737687150.2226033353143.2977006819175.5658214443179.4516616416168.1935778343134.2080731038
2008Q1203.7416026305217.3498570067143.03156.3138806462183.9055442311252.08333333334274.150906190130173.3939995872103617.38704028133771.10727140812724791.5781594346557.67372187825.333336.213333.495.583337.016675.2500.62017637391.62705497280.15722861561.1411547850.0880386503135-55714200-4595.820.58359352225.0310278883154.7001002941146.992247925174.8608910629178.5019329969167.4780898704132.8653259313
2008Q2194.3669132118212.6923600708135.82156.7095285196185.0975527891253.83064516134111.453880341829709.612249965103456.25714713834297.40878917442717652.3857032745255.498813369655.083.514.756.963335.2500.64378895161.67913054090.15433743981.15554814220.083033766617-557-5400-4848.600.64-385078236.299964093166.8616818133157.0272156503172.7770312807175.6944198313165.3630205929128.8960022875
2008Q3182.2027902746205.2022334196132.62156.9073524563187.6957141615248.45430107534033.995969174929397.789682549796912.446709937634278.84055302462663695.8805054345279.6725795757553.534.757.295.2500.6868776111.83966903890.17202057251.16989275610.0762167653-98-557-15800-9326.041.39-284495235.614067387166.121453228156.4164258487170.3841891244172.4706252581162.9343413823124.3381308663
2008Q4174.5058732272190.0994144083129.87155.9841740851189.1211459868217.74193548394084.373328137129768.844381947395062.933499348532670.81879643452575715.0502689744088.45163895483.166674.056673.353.833337.403335.0000.73059852581.9567013580.1832180041.1841896080.0747487361-52-557-9700-8360.870.76-759078234.5026244902164.9219696967155.4266879183167.2665098652168.2702823938159.7699693479118.3995940688
2009Q1170.2184366859176.0724499523127.25153.7421694692188.7987543252217.80913978493966.732941191529547.155523358997025.039130429231458.24057144612568016.9555517442082.098816139313.252.412.833335.665.0000.77022855181.91537598360.17208547821.27438752890.0683861145220585100-7118.45-0.17130843227.6421709899157.518079659149.3174662308163.3983998819163.058909826155.8439275586111.0316413183
2009Q2173.7714950874181.4244859049139.52151.7969007583186.8678083961236.02150537633887.341087176229164.600152642497449.294972197831103.6634166662649530.9585068943712.15857855720.53.251.992.255.435.0000.75319973031.97868189590.14576821431.37798053990.05681818051542058-48004356.91-1.03690143226.442146985156.2229982515148.2488469806159.3779134782157.6422457073151.7632272419103.3734428741
2009Q3179.1267947347187.430205638145.05152.2255192878188.5523138804256.31720430113885.563334379329136.685610369498691.215294251931304.86416338692718028.687091644349.72460317140.53.251.962.255.653335.0000.72911912072.09268017660.15468261861.27169714640.0489413258-592058-72006092.630.90490223233.0599677446163.3650359012154.1420046422157.810619422155.5306839148150.1724601781100.3880705342
2009Q4179.2261947093185.3329701757151.7153.7091988131189.469433533267.80913978493881.362768834729508.8404602004101855.59254200631910.27485652262639910.3470985944467.54802989650.53.251.952.255.853335.0000.72483236952.27172215930.14284848851.181602580.0435382484792058-116001957.430.49255623239.9508609548170.8017768672160.2783328375158.1349032099155.9675803949150.5016006907101.0057643529
first-order difference
UKHPUSHPTAIHPCANHPUKYUSYTAIYCANYUK expHPUS expHPTAI expHPCAN expHPUKIUSITAIICANIUKTUSTTAITCANT
1994Q10.00400667790.00724542220.0233759594-0.00097592710.00612145890.00613207970.01524293240.01266323530000-0.333340.0200.166670.0034686131-0.187907197-0.0129353611-0.0059731197
1994Q2-0.0166271610.02092597440.00440078350.00032562680.00417111210.00961251060.01679217820.01266099340000-0.083330.87667-0.191.416670.0076661720.2972309931-0.0010118211-0.005939914
1994Q30.00649134030.0021778119-0.03870462660.00065104170.00926158270.0011545662-0.00929854150.019898660700000.166670.60666-0.060.083330.0017673978-0.04423022750.0122995245-0.0059065757
1994Q40.0011616159-0.0043461588-0.0082895143-0.00227716330.01700279720.0091246250.03067823550.009953509700000.50.630.140.083330.0015113345-0.0720680852-0.0039486263-0.0058731213
1995Q1-0.0284351821-0.0019257928-0.0044484184-0.0029344636-0.0108958483-0.002373766-0.00643879030.006859380500000.666660.7-0.012.166670.0303342964-0.18342275070.00498692630.0297312851
1995Q2-0.00750825930.0198096218-0.0320520887-0.00457815570.0015312502-0.00456460270.0146493819-0.000051309900000.166670.16667-0.05-0.250.0019417325-0.05911117420.00373725040.0303599391
1995Q3-0.00844386320.0074419778-0.0206983512-0.00394218130.00825447910.0063780160.0176960953-0.001933726200000-0.23333-0.11-1.166670.01745728540.0987706490.01730510930.0310116979
1995Q4-0.0091919863-0.0045073244-0.0327112492-0.00791556730.00708062220.00490426080.0187139386-0.00054752050000-0.08333-0.05-0.1-0.333330.01967601720.07480635950.00636300720.0316871613
1996Q10.00323339110.0012577034-0.0026988917-0.00498670210.00600476970.00123870610.0003521575-0.00512481040000-0.5-0.38334-0.04-0.750.0067774534-0.13189662320.0013552257-0.0055907947
1996Q20.01957620030.018841854-0.0046969598-0.00701637150.01620988060.00886612040.01839220980.00474782340000-0.25-0.08333-0.06-0.5-0.01625460320.0490347121-0.0014757248-0.0055544707
1996Q30.01640841620.007520651-0.0085148819-0.00067294750.0136140460.00422780270.00733275760.00905589890000-0.166670-0.14-0.58333-0.0031281699-0.07527697560.0097308105-0.0055185006
1996Q40.0155270287-0.0066079295-0.00045275450.0020202020.002980270.00694014040.00397034590.009322975100000.250-0.16-1.08334-0.00625723630.0676571215-0.002613304-0.00548288
1997Q10.00558035560.0078837152-0.03088152240.00470430110.01179693460.00502042220.02628390030.007274336000000.01667-0.09-0.083330.0046519323-0.14588905650.0076647933-0.0058653116
1997Q20.03328717920.02114397460.02904642870.00301003340.01526990390.01074145430.01107941640.002617958900000.250.23333-0.050-0.0277770771-0.0040972738-0.000433454-0.0058264438
1997Q30.03018709370.0098144823-0.01426227870.00133377790.0184111270.00966903620.01052656930.008085505200000.6666700.030-0.02180246310.052531003-0.0032557939-0.0057879576
1997Q40.00963875610.0050965983-0.01939325830.00266400270.01265291490.00503138030.05108087780.003808457500000.2500.10.83333-0.00176079010.04405507010.0161636862-0.0057498483
1998Q10.01418890220.01073113210.01669577840.00365327130.0109240060.0061427514-0.01122990080.005030280500000.0833300.140.750.00447473830.04477619060.00932802080.0174217715
1998Q20.01798839620.0302181776-0.02554602180.00165453340.01136533150.00371075010.0090927622-0.000525676700000.0833300.050.16667-0.0132272712-0.0277557063-0.01757805850.0174801579
1998Q30.01424050670.020385051-0.09765859520.00165180050.01817764570.01083171780.0126535481-0.00123988100000.16667-0.0033300.250.0034119683-0.12765801240.0082597570.0175395045
1998Q4-0.00525696360.00788013320.00587713460.00065963060.01607484450.0145399707-0.00975611810.01206608990000-0.75-0.57667-0.110.083330.01973851780.06809567590.00194968130.0176003005
1999Q10.02191416290.0139852439-0.025465770.00131839160.00800154530.00724752470.03121250720.01561066310000-1.08333-0.17-0.2-0.08333-0.0004211637-0.1254659490.02097820730.0018467835
1999Q20.02665977310.02899652480.02070135750.00230414750.0081451226-0.00061365480.01422774180.01667465950000-0.50-0.14-0.41667-0.01847801480.1107589534-0.02033340190.0016885472
1999Q30.03276728050.02406332450.00454394330.00459770110.01555729890.0079421733-0.01033029410.01886757040000-0.083340.35333-0.1-0.08333-0.01497422250.20229239270.01146535430.0015359096
1999Q40.02381986060.0129856745-0.00717122680.00686498860.00850862010.0130030590.00092590920.013132407500000.333340.27-0.110.16667-0.01312703070.07280505270.00527483230.00138865
2000Q10.03685590970.0173974972-0.01933548170.00519480520.0097385412-0.00791339730.01724579780.017966914300000.50.31334-0.130.33333-0.0214233781-0.02086281740.0010232919-0.0086540396
2000Q20.02610709360.03770.00691218130.00581395350.00268207750.0052995190.01576382810.017474064300000.083330.56-0.090.58333-0.0243792565-0.20210773430.0251435117-0.0085489054
2000Q3-0.00502843740.0246699431-0.03747467930.00545921640.0061336236-0.0095131190.01513430860.011214736000000.25333-0.070.166670.01540498990.13431537570.05426319-0.0084462517
2000Q40.00210780790.0147653531-0.02852800190.00702650910.0035573024-0.0026368514-0.00653784720.0011667828000000-0.0900.0053570677-0.0995081080.0359267201-0.0083458416
2001Q10.02996477950.0126969416-0.01757130820.00666032350.0298357139-0.0086075777-0.02636570490.00232301740000-0.16667-0.87667-0.12-0.41667-0.0107776880.0609119225-0.0215752587-0.0249193412
2001Q20.03099966520.0312986181-0.00306259950.00787649650.00189186830.0003431481-0.0204209765-0.00767507570000-0.5-1.28333-0.2-0.75-0.0226731927-0.0201327472-0.0191063171-0.024314936
2001Q30.03832423990.02493566420.00651265670.00718974680.0062314001-0.003507188-0.0059588461-0.02161179460000-0.33333-0.77333-0.23-0.66666-0.0186542060.1055202615-0.0379331173-0.0237316725
2001Q40.01747070250.00632034630.01269686240.00527622590.01712234360.00683421430.0246249585-0.0123992940000-0.83333-1.41-0.44-1.5-0.0009713506-0.1189922234-0.0384776434-0.0231681534
2002Q10.02991544840.0152284264-0.00144665460.01111454150.019016810.00599359820.01868716690.01029881440000-0.16667-0.40667-0.52-0.41667-0.0071922403-0.0215681369-0.0039163052-0.0317004561
2002Q20.07246575870.03593220340.03440782330.01618320610.0058591124-0.00350846710.01679431870.0157257142000000-0.250.33333-0.0472351117-0.1522473237-0.0131315309-0.0303048056
2002Q30.06717282090.031822644-0.02299253030.00871394230.01011099310.00263738520.00476064430.0046106462000000-0.320.41667-0.0351450329-0.15132328860.0044262816-0.0290022969
2002Q40.03671399750.01942440340.01385736470.01310694070.00826247510.00046712140.00254557230.01013643700000-0.3-0.380-0.01776374230.07666394030.0035443809-0.0277844102
2003Q10.02871031750.01477679270.04713090610.01087915320.0088028707-0.00123136320.00105780450.01163235220000-0.16667-0.2-0.520.08333-0.00143602260.2162755255-0.0092286636-0.0317500198
2003Q20.0332807090.02851011650.04050860810.01105293780.01714843270.0049300434-0.0143817298-0.01820943690000-0.08333-0.01-0.280.41667-0.0093101625-0.20789746130.0125364643-0.0303185772
2003Q30.0320783420.03137108790.02627879310.01237054090.01233221820.01509530730.04561704830.00732774710000-0.25-0.24-0.27-0.33333-0.00300207510.0685482044-0.0126171609-0.0289836831
2003Q40.02571340120.0280326566-0.04446786090.01477692530.01093085850.01170457860.01520738770.001168997800000.166670-0.21-0.16667-0.0016079408-0.0160526061-0.0075514933-0.0277369283
2004Q10.03318175590.0279007660.05315394790.01120134420.00529996550.0044360390.00758890.011680730500000.2500.05-0.33333-0.0143823587-0.0670925374-0.0129805772-0.0166123115
2004Q20.05353874440.0455353480.01465968590.01883134870.0096387737-0.00099573850.01375176510.018262735600000.333330-0.1-0.41667-0.03224784350.06101782410.0067363683-0.0159959655
2004Q30.02774322790.0366858488-0.02146542830.01304702360.00324690240.0087414934-0.00108018440.008592204100000.416670.42-0.080.08333-0.01104252280.2378155725-0.0050895267-0.0154182792
2004Q4-0.01607981350.02857503310.01687407720.00965924340.01003544060.0079337109-0.02075640020.003134561400000.083330.52-0.050.416670.0138147606-0.1326362286-0.0064444444-0.0148763272
2005Q1-0.00050472820.03759352390.01586807720.00876959870.00445481140.01060391990.01118846120.0023756766000000.503330.0500.0055198990.0081567023-0.0019943095-0.019232816
2005Q20.01896868490.04438796620.04287901990.01501580610.0063241098-0.0045520793-0.00106621280.0068246706000000.473340.060-0.01244063-0.1775870491-0.002177763-0.0184162942
2005Q3-0.00279189290.0361063950.00293685760.0129769011-0.01051480270.0034136969-0.00027224270.01894005910000-0.166670.510.030.083330.0061312343-0.1987537608-0.0045099509-0.0176558039
2005Q4-0.00719290260.02124754210.06910688140.01793492190.01230937320.00620938930.03308882640.01455289980000-0.083330.54333-0.010.50.00763745920.0317524213-0.0089332617-0.0169463466
2006Q10.01600501340.0090388832-0.00721263580.02265290710.01851339750.0128542093-0.0070280440.0021671444000000.46333-0.060.5-0.0044288518-0.097457875-0.0010890674-0.022776419
2006Q20.01170385450.00673168660.08635276810.034211174-0.0076980381-0.00675205860.0040037684-0.0012782996000000.46334-0.110.58334-0.011106897-0.0587912549-0.01964713-0.0216608779
2006Q30.0120460424-0.00958247780.01972403280.03664921470.0131179614-0.00011241860.02108919970.001219022300000.166670.35333-0.10.08333-0.0057759167-0.04862139270.0041770525-0.0206305777
2006Q40.0107476209-0.00887778430.0289722730.01400367310.01733397830.01807642160.0073597548-0.000802330700000.250-0.040-0.0061872510.0403730745-0.0115882059-0.0196770571
2007Q10.0122385121-0.00863548590.01460266240.00996151230.00821383910.0008808715-0.00543147150.016370828500000.333330-0.090-0.0057240802-0.08947173120.0037134467-0.0255150428
2007Q20.0190716563-0.0089812260.00548664120.0215198386-0.0023211587-0.00686106930.01362245130.012261709300000.166670-0.010-0.0146681145-0.1137354603-0.0061481932-0.0242662622
2007Q30.0088509404-0.0172517334-0.01945432980.02062760590.00203140570.00783889920.0339966547-0.003432553500000.33333-0.073330.120.25-0.00130482120.1381216339-0.0017439489-0.023110202
2007Q4-0.0137913569-0.0514415866-0.002903460.008170286-0.00690754450.0016054978-0.02873632560.00561906810000-0.08333-0.653340.08-0.083330.00672998750.08401584520.0100941836-0.0220379254
2008Q1-0.030987226-0.06530014640.15691984150.0110897846-0.0007215615-0.0111013664-0.01321594380.00239108180000-0.33334-1.310.01-0.583340.0215481189-0.1271066681-0.02654550550.0144430952
2008Q2-0.046012642-0.0214285714-0.05040900510.0025311116-0.0380653443-0.0153705529-0.00155504690.01558437260000-0.33333-1.133330.02-0.833330.02361257770.052075568-0.00289117580.0143933572
2008Q3-0.0625833005-0.0352157767-0.02356059490.0012623606-0.0188395428-0.0104956795-0.0632519542-0.000541388900000-0.080.0200.04308865940.1605384980.01768313270.0143446139
2008Q4-0.0422436837-0.0735996814-0.0207359373-0.0058835890.01248820260.0126218571-0.0190843723-0.04691003930000-1.83333-0.94333-0.18-0.916670.04372091480.11703231910.01119743150.0142968519
2009Q1-0.02456901-0.0737875206-0.0201740202-0.0143732826-0.0288025549-0.00744700920.0206400703-0.0371150240000-2.16667-0.80667-0.94-10.039630026-0.0413253744-0.01113252570.0901979209
2009Q20.02087352270.03039678240.0964243615-0.0126527986-0.0200144187-0.01294728250.0043726428-0.011271360000-0.50-0.42-0.58333-0.01702882150.0633059123-0.0263172640.103593011
2009Q30.03081805590.03310313770.03963589450.0028236316-0.0004573184-0.00095713780.0127442720.0064687154000000-0.030-0.02408060960.11399828070.0089144043-0.1062833935
figure
UKUSTWCANKORHK
1991Q1100100100.00100100100
1991Q299.4678881634101.7976303963105.4999.703264095100.678913738112.9032258065
1991Q398.1025838189102.3559852921107.8199.9670293439104.3530351438132.0564516129
1991Q494.9172019989101.6614462754108.7199.6373227827101.9568690096147.5806451613
1992Q191.8791426589101.1848018521110.4899.3076162216101.7172523962160.4838709677
1992Q290.7848924838102.7917744791116.5199.7692054072102.4361022364175
1992Q390.1256830859102.6828271824116.91100.0329706561107.4680511182178.8306451613
1992Q486.1741374105101.7840119842116.76100.1318826245108.0670926518172.7822580645
1993Q186.6646758164101.4026964456116.92100.3626772173108.8658146965171.5725806452
1993Q288.3574147917102.7917744791114.29101.2528849324109.5846645367183.5349462366
1993Q387.8156034161103.5816423805120.93101.4836795252111.0623003195197.3790322581
1993Q486.3283259222103.3773661991118.93101.3517969008110.1038338658197.6478494624
1994Q186.6742157154104.1263788642121.71101.2528849324110.7028753994227.6209677419
1994Q285.2330695756106.3053247991122.24101.2858555885111.5015974441235.4166666667
1994Q385.7863464381106.5368378047117.51101.3517969008113.2188498403233.7365591398
1994Q485.8859972189106.0738117935116.54101.1210023079114.1773162939229.9059139785
1995Q183.4438132474105.8695356121116.02100.8242664029115.6150159744225.6048387097
1995Q282.817295463107.9667710745112.30100.3626772173116.9728434505222.4462365591
1995Q382.1179975505108.770257388109.9799.9670293439119.0095846645210.3494623656
1995Q481.3631700405108.2799945526106.3899.1757335971119.1693290735206.9220430108
1996Q181.6262489877108.4161786736106.0998.6811737554119.9680511182219.4220430108
1996Q283.2241807873110.4589404875105.5997.9887899769121.8849840256228.8978494624
1996Q384.5897577868111.2896636252104.6997.9228486647124.4808306709235.3494623656
1996Q485.903185384110.5542693722104.6598.1206726014125.7587859425259.1397849462
1997Q186.3825557096111.4258477462101.4198.582261787127.8354632588308.6021505376
1997Q289.2579873253113.7818330383104.3698.8789976921129.6725239617336.8951612903
1997Q391.9524265492114.8985428299102.8799.0108803165130.5910543131341.8010752688
1997Q492.8387335597115.4841345499100.8899.2746455654130.2715654952328.2258064516
1998Q194.1560132708116.7234100504102.5699.6373227827129.6325878594281.5860215054
1998Q295.8497289391120.250578782599.9499.8021760633123.6022364217251.6129032258
1998Q397.2146776434122.701892959390.1899.9670293439108.8658146965209.0053763441
1998Q496.7036236226123.668800217990.71100.0329706561105.7108626198201.9489247312
1999Q198.8228025847125.398338553788.4100.1648532806104.9121405751206.6532258065
1999Q2101.4573960784129.034454582690.23100.3956478734109.8242811502206.4516129032
1999Q3104.7818790337132.139452539890.64100.857237059114.8562300319201.0752688172
1999Q4107.2777687816133.855372463689.99101.5496208375118.9297124601192.0698924731
2000Q1111.2315885366136.184120931588.25102.0771513353122.6437699681195.0940860215
2000Q2114.1355220336141.318262290688.86102.6706231454127.4760383387181.5860215054
2000Q3113.5615987096144.804575786585.53103.2311242994132.268370607176.0752688172
2000Q4113.8009647444146.942666485183.09103.9564787339134.5047923323169.6908602151
2001Q1117.2109855586148.808388941881.63104.6488625124137.4201277955163.3064516129
2001Q2120.8444868725153.465885877781.38105.4731289153139.6166134185163.7096774194
2001Q3125.4757599809157.292659675981.91106.2314540059146.1261980831158.5349462366
2001Q4127.6679096566158.286803758782.95106.7919551599153.3945686901148.8575268817
2002Q1131.4871524211160.697262699282.83107.9788987801158.3067092652148.7231182796
2002Q2141.0154686803166.471469426785.68109.7263435542166.2539936102145.564516129
2002Q3150.4878754989171.769031730983.71110.6824925816172.803514377138.373655914
2002Q4156.0128869875175.105542693784.87112.1332014507175.5191693291131.25
2003Q1160.4920665011177.693040991488.87113.353115727175.8785942492126.4784946237
2003Q2165.8333562558182.759090290192.47114.6060006594175.8785942492120.6317204301
2003Q3171.1530153801188.492441781394.9116.0237388724176.7172523962119.5564516129
2003Q4175.5539415351193.776385673490.68117.7382129904174.9874268971129.7715053763
2004Q1181.3791295668199.182895274495.5119.0570392351173.9478973773148.3870967742
2004Q2191.0899404296208.252757728496.9121.299043851171.8195955704155.6451612903
2004Q3196.3913922006215.892686912794.82122.8816353445171.7168486671156.8548387097
2004Q4193.2334552439222.061827590996.42124.0685789647167.9687019841168.0779569892
2005Q1193.1359248786230.40991420497.95125.1566106166164.8883388178181.25
2005Q2196.7994593878240.637341686102.15127.0359380152163.2877995001190.5913978495
2005Q3196.2500163663249.3258886014102.45128.684470821164.6870090452188.6424731183
2005Q4194.8384091213254.6234509056109.53130.9924167491165.7770801111181.7204301075
2006Q1197.9568004703256.9249625494108.74133.9597757995168.2633832821184.4758064516
2006Q2200.273658051258.6545008852118.13138.5426969997170.0936508384187.9704301075
2006Q3202.6861630319256.1759498842120.46143.6201780415172.6255558576186.9623655914
2006Q4204.8645570773253.9016750647123.95145.6313880646173.7735349298188.1048387097
2007Q1207.37179443251.7091107177125.76147.0820969337178.2189052401194.6908602151
2007Q2211.3267180291249.4484543102126.45150.2472799209180.8686771321202.1505376344
2007Q3213.197158205245.1450360888123.99153.3465215958182.2643363434209.7446236559
2007Q4210.2568800959232.5343864905123.63154.5994065282182.8218579254228.2930107527
2008Q1203.7416026305217.3498570067143.03156.3138806462183.9055442311252.0833333333
2008Q2194.3669132118212.6923600708135.82156.7095285196185.0975527891253.8306451613
2008Q3182.2027902746205.2022334196132.62156.9073524563187.6957141615248.4543010753
2008Q4174.5058732272190.0994144083129.87155.9841740851189.1211459868217.7419354839
2009Q1170.2184366859176.0724499523127.25153.7421694692188.7987543252217.8091397849
2009Q2173.7714950874181.4244859049139.52151.7969007583186.8678083961236.0215053763
2009Q3179.1267947347187.430205638145.05152.2255192878188.5523138804256.3172043011
2009Q4179.2261947093185.3329701757151.7153.7091988131189.469433533267.8091397849
figure
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
UK
US
TW
CAN
KOR
HK
-
The figures above indicate that, the selected countries share a common upward trend of the housing price since 1999. However, each country has respective high or low upward trend and variation itself. Question: what factors other than the above common trend might influence the housing price?
-
Purpose of the StudyTo investigate whether there is a common trend of housing price index among the selected countries.To find out other factors such as property tax and interest rate which might have influences on the housing price index.
-
The Conceptual Framework of the StudyWe follow Otrok and Terrones (2005) to construct a dynamic factor model (DFM) comprising one common state variable world common trend, and other independent country-specific factors to capture the house price trend of selected countries.
-
The independent country-specific factors include per-capita output, mortgage interest rate and effective tax rate which was measured as the property tax burden of each housing unit for our selected countries.
-
The reason for including property tax burdenAs well documented in housing research literature, property values are negatively affected by their related tax liabilities, a phenomenon that is often termed as capitalization in the literature. (e.g. Palm and smith, 1998; Krantz et al., 1982; and Lea, 1982)
-
The model is defined as follows:
where represents a idiosyncratic component, which is distributed as i.i.d
-
The common factor evolves as an independent AR(p) process:
Following Otrok and Terrones2005, we fix the variance of this innovation to unity as a normalization of the model:
-
Figure 1: The original series for selected OECD countries
-
The Figure shows that the trend for house prices in U.S., U.K. and Canada are pretty resembling to each other.The movements of per capita GDP and mortgage interest rate also look similar.This indicates that there must be a common trend among these selected OECD countries.
-
The effective property tax rate, on the contrary, are quite different for those countries, with U.S. and U.K. having the highest and lowest value, while Canadas was in between.
However, during our observation period, the movement of this variable, by and large exhibits a huntchbacked pattern except for the last two years.
-
Estimation Result(I):
Model results for selected OECD countries
U.S.
U.K.
Canada
restricted model
full
model
restricted model
full
model
restricted model
full
model
Common Factor
0.525***
(0.006)
0.680***
(0.011)
0.707***
(0.010)
0.809***
(0.014)
0.533***
(0.007)
0.635***
(0.014)
GDP per capita
110.360***
(1.385)
-1.086
(1.219)
-7.730***
(1.286)
Interest Rate
-1.514***
(0.039)
-1.596***
(0.063)
-0.605***
(0.039)
Dewelling Tax
-2.381***
(0.176)
-34.261***
(1.567)
-25.692***
(1.099)
without country-specific factors
with country-specific factors
State space model
Note 1: Dependent variables are the house price index of selected countries.
Note 2: Constant terms are not reported.
Note 3:*, **, ***represents 10%, 5%, and 1% significance level, respectively.
_1307262199.unknown
_1307262248.unknown
_1335171511.unknown
_1337517772.unknown
_1307262206.unknown
_1307262099.unknown
-
Estimation begins with the restricted model where the model is simplified that only unobservable common trend is considered:
The results show that the common trend is highly persistent and significant. Besides, the estimated for each selected OECD countries is also significantly positive.
-
This result mimics the finding of Chirinko et al. (2004) and that of Otrok and Terrones (2005) and may be interpreted as the fact that the U.S., U.K. and Canada have relative high level of financial openness so that there exists an evident common trend even though real estates are quintessential non-tradable goods.
-
Then, we add the country- specific factors to the selected countries that might have affected each countrys house price index besides their common trend.The result shows that house prices in selected OECD countries moved significant negatively with mortgage interest rate and property tax liabilities, implying that the capitalization effect works.
-
The actual and fitted house price for selected OECD countries
-
The figure shows the common trends of the house price in U.S., U.K. and Canada do not make significant difference whether the country-specific factors are included in the estimation or not.This implies that country-specific factors in those countries might have been affected by their international counterparts, as Otrok and Terrones (2005) asserted.
-
Figure 2: The original series for selected East Asia countries
-
Observation points-case of East Asia country House price moved quite differently for East Asia Countries.The discernible common trend for house prices is Less obvious than the case of the selected OECD countries.
-
Unlike the OECD case, the different movement patterns here implies that house price in these countries had been affected mainly by domestic factors.Income and interest rate series, however, exhibit somewhat similar trend as OECD countries, although different in patterns.
-
Estimation Result(II):
Model results for selected East-asia countries
H.K.
Taiwan
Korea
restricted model
full
model
restricted model
full
model
restricted model
full
model
Common Factor
1.977***
(0.021)
0.733***
(0.004)
1.899***
(0.018)
0.732***
(0.004)
1.682***
(0.017)
-0.869***
(0.003)
GDP per capita
-3.663***
(0.420)
1.382***
(1.463)
17.773***
(0.309)
Interest Rate
-0.372***
(0.011)
-0.692***
(0.064)
-0.488***
(0.017)
Dewelling Tax
-1.688***
(0.546)
-0.995*
(0.586)
without country-specific factors
with country-specific factors
State space model
Note 1: Dependent variables are the house price index of selected countries.
Note 2: Constant terms are not reported.
Note 3:*, **, ***represents 10%, 5%, and 1% significance level, respectively.
_1307262199.unknown
_1307262248.unknown
_1337587032.unknown
_1337587170.unknown
_1307262206.unknown
_1307262099.unknown
-
Points to note:Coefficients for the common factor are all positive and significant, implying that house price in each country had been affected by their common trend.2.The extent of influence of the trend here is much lower than the OECD case.Like the OECF Case, the influences of interest rate and tax burden are obvious and consistent with our expectation.
-
Points to note:The influence of per capita GDP on house price is undecided--positive in Taiwan and Korea but negative in H.K.Result looks better when country-specific factors are included in the estimation.
-
The actual and fitted house price for selected East Asia countries
-
Three points to makeFitted values deviate more from the actual values than the OECD case.Fitted value failed to resemble the actual value in Korea.Inclusion of country specific factors improves the predictions in these Asian countries.
-
Concluding Remarks The common trend do affect house price movements in both cases.The empirical result of this study attests more or less that of Chirinko et al.(2004)and Otrok and Terrones(2005) and succeeds only limited in attaining its object due to the ambiguous performance of the income variable.Wish the problem of the income variable can be solved in future.
-
Thank You