1 Alternative Energy Sources Delivered on Behalf of: Bill Pyke Hilbre Consulting Limited October...
-
Upload
lawrence-manning -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
0
Transcript of 1 Alternative Energy Sources Delivered on Behalf of: Bill Pyke Hilbre Consulting Limited October...
1
Alternative Energy Sources Alternative Energy Sources
Delivered on Behalf of:
Bill PykeHilbre Consulting Limited
October 2012
Copyright and all intellectual property rights retained by presenter
Limitations of Fossil Fuels
2
OutlineOutline
• Definitions
• Relative Energy Values
• Global Statistics Remaining Reserves
• Costs
• Environmental Impact
3
What are Fossil Fuels?What are Fossil Fuels?
Energy sources created by the decomposition of animal and plant life over millions of years and their transformation into hydrocarbon energy sources
4
TypesTypes
Solid, Liquids and Gases
• Solids-coals and lignite, bitumen
• Liquids- crude oil, condensates
• Gases- natural gas and gas liquids
5
The Global Primary Energy Mix in 2011The Global Primary Energy Mix in 2011
Oil33%
Gas24%
Coal30%
Nuclear5%
Hydro6%
Renewable2%
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2012
6
The Global Primary Energy Mix by 2035New Policies ScenarioThe Global Primary Energy Mix by 2035New Policies Scenario
Oil29%
Gas22%
Coal25%
Nuclear8%
Hydro3%
Renewable13%
Source: IEA, WEO November 2011
7
OutlineOutline
• Current status, supply, demand, petroleum commodity prices
• Distribution of global oil and gas reserves
• Oil production streams, major trade movements OPEC share and influence
• Future trends: supply, demand, volumes and prices
• The Peak Oil issue
8
The IssuesThe Issues
• Fossil Fuels are depleting, limited and
unsustainable in the longer-term
• Limits of Fossil Fuel Reserves and Resources
• Limitations of Production Capabilities
• Cost Implications
• Global Distribution of Remaining Reserves
Energy Security
• Environmental Issues Fossil Fuels Emissions
9
LimitationsLimitations
Non-renewable Resource
Crude oil is a non-renewable resource
Fossil fuels take millions of years to develop under extreme conditions
Once they are gone, they can no longer be part of the energy mix
10
Limitations of Fossil Fuel TechnologiesLimitations of Fossil Fuel Technologies
• In many areas technologies are becoming more costly
• Fossil fuels-oil, gas, coal used as the key source (>70%) in global electrical power generation
• Emission of pollutants/ greenhouse gases
• Cost of Carbon Sequestration increases costs and prices
11
Fossil Fuel Supply; Present & FutureFossil Fuel Supply; Present & Future
• OilIncreasing taxes to host countries-government takeDeepwater resources costsNon-Conventional resourcesRemote Locations
• Natural GasRemote locationsInvestments required for new infrastructure Transportation and tariff costs
• CoalMore imports from remote sourcesSpecification for environmental compliance favours high btu clean coals with
low sulphur, chlorides
12
Remaining Proven Global
Fossil Fuel Reserves, 2011
Remaining Proven Global
Fossil Fuel Reserves, 2011
Fossil Fuel % of
Global energy consumption
in 2009
Proven Reserves
109 tonnes
Solid
Coal, Anthracite, Lignite 26% 847
Liquid
Crude Oil, Condensate
Natural Gas Liquids 34% 205
Natural Gas
20% 188
Sources: BP Statistical Review 2012 & IEA, 2011
13
Remaining Time
at Current Rates of Consumption
Remaining Time
at Current Rates of Consumption
Fossil Fuel Years
Solid
Coal, Anthracite, Lignite
332
Liquid (Conventional)
Crude Oil, Condensate
Natural Gas Liquids
37
Natural Gas (Conventional) 62
14
The Uneven Distribution Of Oil And Gas ReservesThe Uneven Distribution Of Oil And Gas Reserves
North America
Crude oil 73
Natural gas
323
Central & South America
Crude oil 199
Natural gas
285Africa
Crude oil 128
Natural gas 521
Asia
Crude oil 42
Natural gas
574
Distribution of proven reserves of crude oil (billion barrels) and natural gas (trillion cubic feet), 2009
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010
Middle East
Crude oil 754
Natural gas 2,690
W. Europe
Crude oil 12
Natural gas
132
E. Europe and Central Asia
Crude oil 125
Natural gas
2,096
= % of crude oil reserves
= % of natural gas reserves
Key
15
International Coal TransportationInternational Coal Transportation
16
Current and Future Costs of Fossil Fuel SupplyCurrent and Future Costs of Fossil Fuel Supply
• The easy resources have been developed!
• Future resources will take additional costs to ensure sustainable supply and satisfy supply growth against energy demand
Environmental considerations add to cost burden
Costly technologies for more difficult primary energy sources
Increasing unit labour costs as living standards rise in developing countries
17
Fossil Fuel Supply Costs:Present & FutureFossil Fuel Supply Costs:Present & Future• Oil
Increasing taxes to host countries-government takeDeepwater resources costsNon-Conventional resourcesRemote Locations
• Natural GasRemote locationsInvestments required for new infrastructure Transportation and tariff costs
• CoalMore imports from remote sourcesSpecification for environmental compliance favours high btu clean coals
with low sulphur, chlorides
18
Cash Needs To Find, Develop And Produce New Oil and Refined
Products
Cash Needs To Find, Develop And Produce New Oil and Refined
Products
• The ‘easy’ oil has been found or depleted
• New reserves will be more capital intensive
• Higher proportion of CAPEX will be required to sustain existing (and declining) production
• New oil likely to be lower viscosity, higher gravity and higher sulphur content
• Upstream Costs for Finding and Developing New Oil (2008-2030) have been estimated at $17.6trillion*
• Downstream Costs (2008-2030) have been estimated at $6 trillion*
* Platts Capital Expenditure Forecast for Global Hydrocarbon Demands through 2030 L.G,Chom, October, 2007
19
Oil Industry Estimated Annual Capital Spend to 2030
Sources: IEA, Platts, 2007 (Nominal Costs)
Oil Industry Estimated Annual Capital Spend to 2030
Sources: IEA, Platts, 2007 (Nominal Costs)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
An
nu
al C
AP
EX
$b
illio
n
Downstream
Upstream
20
Global Supply
Run-out without new investment
Global Supply
Run-out without new investment
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Years
mil
lio
n b
arr
els
/da
y
Existing Non-OPEC
Existing OPEC
21
Global Supply
Where Will New Oil Production Come From?
Global Supply
Where Will New Oil Production Come From?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Years
mil
lio
n b
arre
ls/d
ay
New
Existing Non-OPEC
Existing OPEC
Where is the ‘new’ oil coming from?
22
Future Global Crude Oil Supply To Meet Demand
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook, November, 2011
Oil production rises to 99mb/d by 2035
23
World Unconventional Liquids Production, 2005-2030 (million barrels per day oil equivalent)World Unconventional Liquids Production, 2005-2030 (million barrels per day oil equivalent)
Source: EIA , International Energy Outlook, 2007
24
New Sources of Crude Oil Supply in this DecadeNew Sources of Crude Oil Supply in this Decade
Country Additional production
Mmb/d
Comments
Iraq +5.4 Field refurbishments, new developments
Saudi Arabia +4.0 Empty quarter, new developments and discoveries
Brazil +3.2 Santos basin
Kazakhstan +1.8 Kashagan
Ghana + 2.0 Deepwater developments
Uganda +1.0 New discoveries, developments
U.S Light, tight oil +1.4 Bakken, Niobrara
TOTAL +18.8
Source: IEA WEO, November 2011 and personal communications
25
25
• 27 billion tonnes carbon released each year
• Emissions have increased at 2% per year
• In 2011 95% emissions due to fossil fuels
• Oil produces 40% more emissions per unit of energy than gas, and coal 80%
Global Emissions
26170
220
270
320
370
420
200000400000600000Time (YBP)
CO
2 (p
pm
)
Vostok Ice CoreDome Concordia
Carbon Dioxide LevelsCarbon Dioxide Levels
0
Muana Loa ReadingsCO2 Levels Since 1958
310330350370
10203040
CO
2 (
pp
m)
0
27
Worldwide Carbon EmissionsWorldwide Carbon EmissionsC
arb
on
(10
9 m
etri
c to
ns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Year
OilOilTotalTotal
Natural GasNatural GasCoalCoal
28
28
Global Carbon Emissions by SectorGlobal Carbon Emissions by Sector
Deforestation18%
Fugitive Emissions
1%
Power Generation
24%
Transportation18%
Industry15%
Agriculture14%
other Fuel Combustion
10%
World Resources Institute, 2006 et al
29
29
Transport Carbon Emissions by Sector
note: 18% of all Global Emissions
Transport Carbon Emissions by Sector
note: 18% of all Global Emissions
Aviation9%
Shipping22%
Rail2%
Heavy Road Vehicles
27%
Light Road Vehicles
40%
World Resources Institute, 2006 et al
30
31
Conclusions (1)Conclusions (1)
• The era of cheap oil is over
• 75% of major oilfields are now in decline
• Global consumption of 30bn barrels/year are not being replaced at the same rate. Unsustainable!
• Future global oil supply is under pressure from increasing global demand