Cng ng Kinh t ASEAN ( AEC)

v tin trnh hi nhp: C hi v thch thc

TS. L ng Doanh

CC HIP NH FTA ANG M PHN (1)

TPP, RCEP ang m phn, AEC s c hiu lc cui 2015.

FTA EU-Vit Nam c th k vo cui 2014 vi nhiu c hi v thch thc. 90% hng ha xut khu sang EU s hng thu sut 0%, thng mi song phng tng 30-40%, hng li nhiu nht l nng sn, thy sn, dt may, giy dp. ang tip tc m phn v dch v, mua sm chnh ph, dch v ti chnh, u t v.v. EU c 28 thnh vin.

FTA Vit Nam-EFTA bao gm cc nc Thy S, Lichtenstein, Na Uy, Iceland.

FTA Vit Nam Lin minh thu quan Nga-Kazachstan-Belarus.

Nu kt thc m phn, Vit Nam c FTA vi 55 nn kinh t v c quan h kinh t a phng, cn bng.

CC HIP NH FTA ANG M PHN (2)

SingaporeBrunei

Vietnam

Malaysia

Australia

New Zealand

Peru

Chile

United States

Canada

Mexico

Indonesia

Philippines

Thailand

CambodiaLaosMyanmar

India

Hong Kong China

Chinese Taipei

Russia

Papua New Guinea

China

Japan

Korea

ASEAN

APEC (FTAAP?)

TPPREGIONAL CEP

Cc lin kt Chu TBD

?

44

TPP

5

RCEP

6

CC VN TPPWWW.USTR.GOV

Cnh tranh:bnh ng Hp tc v Xy dng nng

lc Dch v xuyn bin gii:minh

bch Hi quan: minh bch, hp tc Thng mi in t: s ha Mi trng: nh c, Dch v ti chnh:Bnh ng Mua sm chnh ph:cng

bng S hu tr tu: TRIPS u t:Bnh ng Doanh nghip nh nc: bnh

ng

Lao ng v cng on: quyn lao ng

Cc vn php l:tranh chp Tip cn th trng i vi hng ha Quy tc Xut x Tiu chun kim dch ng thc vt

(SPS)

Ro cn k thut i vi Thng mi (TBT)

Vin thng Nhp cnh tm thi Qun o dt may Ch ti thng mi Dch v: m ca tt c dch v theo

phng thc chn b.

TNG TRNG GDP THEO CC HIP NH THNG MI

www.amchamvietnam.com 8

9

C HI I VI DOANH NGHIP

M rng th trng xut khu vi thu sut thp, nhp khu thun li.

a dng ha th trng, khng ph thuc vo mt i tc.

Lin kt, tham gia chui gi tr vi cc doanh nghip ca cc nc trong TPP.

Mi trng kinh doanh minh bch, bnh ng hn.

Doanh nhn c th tr thnh doanh nhn ton cu, d dng tip cn cc i tc.

Doanh nghip cn nghin cu tn dng c li th (thng qua nghin cu, hip hi v.v.)

THCH THC

Quy tc xut x t TPP i vi dt may v cc sn phm khc, c th v hiu ha u i v thu quan.

Ro cn k thut TBT (Technical Barrier to Trade): nhn, mc, bao b ng gi, d lng ti a ha cht, tnh hp php ca nguyn liu s dng.

SPS (Sanitaryand Phytosanitary Standards): rt quan trng i vi nng, lm, thy sn. Tiu chun qu kht khe, th tc kim tra tn km v thi gian v tin bc, nguy c hng c th b tr v

Dch v thay v chn cho nh trong WTO, TPP s p dng nguyn tc chn b, tc l tr mt s lnh vc nht nh cn li m ca hay m c iu kin.

TRIPS:S hu tr tu, c th phc tp cho dc, thuc th y.

NHNG NHN T NG GP VO TNG TRNG QUA HI NHP

Tng xut khu, to thm vic lm, thu nhp;

Tng FDI, to thm vic lm, gi tr gia tng;

Tip cn nhanh hn vi cng ngh cao, tng gi tr gia tng, m rng th phn;

Cnh tranh bnh ng, doanh nghip ci tin qun tr;

Doanh nghip ra nhp chui gi tr ton cu;

Chnh ph ci cch hnh chnh, gim th tc, cng khai, minh bch theo tiu chun quc t;

Hng ha r hn v phong ph hn, ngi tiu dng chng li.

Mt vic lm, ph sn nhng doanh nghip khng thcnh tranh.

NNG NGHIP: 5 N 5 THUA?

Trng trt, lng thc, thy sn c c hi.

Thi Lan, n cha vo TPP, c hi cho go Vit;

M vi VN: thu xut khu go t 7% xung 0%

Ro cn k thut: c tra vo th trng M 2015, th thch v c hi;

C hi hp tc Vit Nam-Nht Bn trong sn xut nng nghip, thy sn.

Chn nui nguy cp c 3 i tng chnh l heo, g v b. Chn nui g quy m nh, khng c kh nng cnh tranh, k c g tht v g trng nn rt d b thua thit.i vi chn nui heo, VN c u th SX ni a v ngi dn c thi quen s dng tht ti. Tuy nhin xu hng tiu dng ny s nhanh chng thay i v ngi dn chuyn dn sang vic s dng tht ng lnh... Chnh v vy c ngnh chn nui heo v g c th ng trc nguy c b thua thit. B tht v b sa chu sc p nng n. Cn c gii php cp bch.

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Cng ng An ninhASEAN (ASC)

Cng ng Kinh t ASEAN (AEC)

Cng ng Vn ha X hi

ASEAN (ASCC)

ASEAN

Ha bnh, thnh vng, ly con ngi lm trung tm

Nn tng sn xut khu vc

Th trng khu vc ring bit

Ref. Think ASEAN, by P. Kotler, H.

Kartajaya, H.D. Huan

15

MTTH TRNG RING BIT

& NN TNG SN XUT

AEC s chuyn i thnh

Vi DCH CHUYN T DO caoHng ha

oDch vo Nhn cng c k nng &o Ngun vn t do

v

- Khu vc Kinh t Cnh tranh cao;

- Khu vc ca Pht trin Kinh t Cn bng- Khu vc Hi nhp hon ton vo Kinh t Ton cu.

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Cc cp ca hi nhp quc tHip nh th-ng mi -u i

Khu vc th-ng mi t do

Lin minh thu quan

Th tr-ng chung

Lin minh kinh t

Gim thu quan trong

nhm

Loi b

thu quan

trong

nhm

Thu quan

chung i

vi ngoi

nhm

Dch chuyn

t do lao

ng v vn

trong nhm

Chnh sch

kinh t

chung v

ng tin

chung

AEC: NC THANG HI NHP C GII HNV HIN THC

-AEC mi ch vt qua c mc Lin minh thu quan v cmt s yu t ca Th trng chung theo s trn y, chac chnh sch kinh t chung v cng cha c cc c quan linquc gia nh Lin Minh Chu u (EU).

-T nm 1993, Khu vc thng mi t do ASEAN (AFTA) c thnh lp, cc nc ASEAN-6 (Singapore, Malaysia, ThiLan, Philipin, Indonesia v Brunei) hu nh hon tt l trnhct gim thu quan v cc ro cn phi thu quan ca h nnkhng cn khng gian ng k no thm cho t do ha thngmi na gia cc nn kinh t ASEAN-6.

CC BN LIN QUAN LI CH

Ngi tiu dng Nhiu la chn hn v hng ha v dch v vi

gi thp hn , mu m v cht lng cao hn

Nh sn xut Khuyn khch nng cao hiu qu sn xut

Nng cao nng lc cnh tranh

Nhiu la chn hn vi cc yu t u vo vi

mc gi thp hn

Nh xut khu Th trng xut khu rng hn

y mnh quan h kinh doanh

Tng nng lc m phn

Nh cung cp dch v

Tip cn th trng ln hn

Nng cao nng lc cnh tranh

Nhiu la chn hn v chuyn gia

Nng dn C th trng xut khu ln hn i vi hng

ha nng nghip trong/ngoi ASEAN nht l

vi nhng mt hng c chi ph sn xut tt

hn

Nng cao nng lc m phn

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Cnh tranh gia tng

Hng ha r hn t cc nc ASEAN khc Nhng i th mi c php m rng hot ng trong ASEAN

Tnh lu ng ca lao ng

S dch chuyn ca lao ng c k nng ca Vit Nam sang cc nc lng ging ASEAN vi mc lng cao hn tr nn trm trng do s ngi c trnh tham gia vo khu vc cng nghip v khu vc dch v ang pht trin t hn

THCH THC

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C hi Thch thc

Th trng c m rng mt cchmnh m ln ti 600 triu ngi

H tng ti chnh

Chi ph u vo thp hn thng qua cci x u i v nn tng sn xut ringbit

Ci cch chnh sch ti chnh

To ra nhiu c hi u t Ci cch ngn hngGip Vit Nam t pht trin thnh: Tng cng chu trnh qun l u t cng

Nc nng nghip, ngh c v xut khuthc phm trong khu vc

Cnh tranh gia tng: cho FDI v h tng yu km

u mi sn xut vi chi ph lao ngthp trong khu vc

Vi lao ng c k nng do mc lng cao hn cc nc lng ging

Ngun nguyn liu t nhin trong khuvc

i vi cc cng ty a quc gia khi u t

im n du lch trong khu vc Ci cch doanh nghip nh nc v nhu cu thu hpSOEs v tng cng t nhn ha

Ngun nhn lc tr c o to trongkhu vc

i th mi c php m rng hot ng trongASEAN

im n cho ti tr v gio dc trongkhu vc

Tnh lu ng ca lao ng

Quc gia c la chn cho cng nghMSME, dch v v i mi

S dch chuyn ca lao ng c k nng ca VitNam sang cc nc lng ging c mc lng caohn nh Thi Lan, Singapore

Thu ht FDI cho pht trin h tng Nhu cu pht trin h thng o to cp hai v cp

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Thnh phn Nguy c gp phi

Ngi tiu dng S dng sn phm km cht lng tr phi c s bo h

dnh cho ngi tiu dng.

Nh sn xut Doanh nghip Vit Nam nu thiu tnh cnh tranh/ gi

thnh cao s b chim lnh th trng bi cc doanh

nghip trong khu vc ASEAN

Nh xut khu S cnh tranh quyt lit n t cc th trng ln hn.

Nguy c cao b y khi th trng tr khi c nhng s

ci thin ng k v cht lng v ci tin t ph trong

sn xut

Nh cung cp dch

v

Nhiu i th cnh tranh

Ngun nhn lc di do c th b thu ht bi nhng i

th trong khu vc vi mc lng hp dn hn

Nh nng Phi cnh tranh vi nhng sn phm cht lng hn vi

gi thnh cnh tranh hn tr khi c s nng cao gi tr

sn xut

Thu hp th phn.

AEC V BN NC CLMV

iu mi trong AEC l bn nc thnh vin mi CLMV (Campuchia, Lo, Myanmar v Vit Nam) c nn kinh t kmpht trin hn, hi nhp chm hn, s phi ct gim thu quanv cc ro cn phi thu quan cho hng ha v dch v t ccnc ASEAN khc m ch yu v thc cht l t cc nn kinht pht trin hn ca ASEAN-6.Cc nc ASEAN-6 ang ho hc ch i c hi ny v h cth m rng th trng, tn dng lao ng v ti nguyn gi r bn nc CLMV v trn cc c quan bo ch cc nc gn y ln ting by t s lo ngi v "s chun b chmchp" cng nh "biu hin thiu quyt tm" thc hin y cc cam kt AEC bn nc CLMV ny.

C HI V THCH THC V LAO NG T AEC (1)

AEC mi ch cho php mt s ngnh ngh nh k s, k ton, kin trc s, bc s, nha s, y t, h l,trc a vin, cc ngnh ngh lin quan n du lch c dch chuyn t do nh t c tha thun cng nhn bng cp tng ng nhau.

Cc doanh nghip phi b sung cc ch , chnh sch tuyn dng nhn s t nc ngoi trong AEC.

C HI V THCH THC V LAO NG T AEC (1)

C hi v thch thc ln cho o to: k nng, k lut lao ng, ngoi ng. K s sn xut ca Vit Nam c th p ng yu cu nhng k s v cng ngh cao, cng ngh thng tin th cha p ng.

Cnh tranh s gia tng trong cc dch v cn thiu v yu nh chm sc sc khe, cng ngh thng tin v.v.

NHNG RO CN QUC GIA

Mi nc c quyn p t nhng quy nh ca nc sti i vi s dch chuyn lao ng vo nc h.

Th d nh lao ng n hnh ngh Thi Lan s phitri qua k thi vit v ting Thi chng t trnh ngn ng. Qua c k thi ny, bc s c th c lmvic cng ng nghip Thi trong bnh vin, song, nu mun m phng mch t hay vn phng ring s phitri qua thm mt k thi st hch v lut php Thi vitbng ting Thi. Kim ton vin cng phi tri qua k thibng ting Thi v lut php v h thng thu khngn gin ca Thi Lan.

TH CH XP HNG THP THEO WEF

Ch tiu Xp hng trn

144 nc

im s

(1-7 l cao nht)

Th ch 92 3,5

Th ch cng 85 3,5

Lut v s hu 104 3,4

Chi ph ngoi php lut v t lt 109 3,2

Chi ph ngoi php lut v t lt cho xut, nhp

khu

121 2,6

Chi ph ngoi php lut v t lt cho np thu hng

nm

104 3,5

Chi ph ngoi php lut v t lt nhn c kt

qu t php thun li

117 2,9

Hiu qu ca Chnh ph 91 3,2

Gnh nng ca quy nh ca chnh ph 101 3,1

Tnh minh bch ca qu trnh son tho chnh sch

ca chnh ph

116 3,5

NNG SUT LAO NG CA VIT NAM SO VI KHU VC

Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2010)

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P p

er

pe

rso

n e

mp

loye

d,

PP

P a

dju

ste

d i

n 1

99

0 U

S$

Vietnam

China

South Korea

Thailand

Indonesia

Bng 1. Vit Nam trong So Snh vi cc nc: NSL, Mt vn (TFP) (2012)

(Vietnam = 1)

NSL Mt Vn TFP

(A) (B)

United States 20.3 17.2 4.3

Singapore 14.1 17.3 3.9

Hong Kong 14.0 20.4 4.6

Japan 13.7 20 3.5

Taiwan 13.7 10.8 3.7

Korea 9.6 9.8 4.2

Malaysia 6.8 6.2 3.1

Sri Lanka 2.7 2.1 2.0

Thailand 2.7 2.8 1.8

China 2.6 2.7 1.7

Philippines 1.8 1.4 1.5

Indonesia 1.7 1.0 1.4

India 1.6 1.2 1.4

Pakistan 1.5 0.7 1.7

Vietnam 1.0 1.0 1.0

Bangladesh 0.9 0.8 1.0

Cambodia 0.8 0.5 0.9

Nepal 0.5 0.3 0.729

TD: +T l TD/100 dn: 151%

(T6/2013)

+ T l 3G/100 dn: 37% (T9/2013)

Internet: T l DS dngInternet: 35.58% (T11/2012)+ Xp th 18/20 quc gia trn ton

cu+ Tng 15 ln so vi nm 2000

Th thanh ton: 63 triu th(Q3/2013)

TIM NNG TH TRNG VIT NAM

CNH TRANH GAY GT TRN SN NH (1)

Li th cnh tranh ca Vit Nam ch yu l lao ngng o, gi r, hc nhanh, kho tay nhng k nngthp.

Dt-may, da giy, in t (in thoi Samsung) c lith cnh tranh nhng gi tr gia tng thp, u l giacng, lp rp.

t, thp, c kh, ma ng, cc sn phm chnnui nh heo, b, g, dch v ti chnh- ngn hng, phn mm chu cnh tranh gay gt hn vi i thmnh hn.

Cc hng phn phi ASEAN chun b chim lnh th trng v thc s e da sn xut cng nghip v nng nghip ca Vit Nam.

Ci cch kinh t, ci cch th ch, ti c cu kinh t cp quc gia, ngnh, doanh nghip l mnh lnh ca cuc sng vn ln trong AEC.

CNH TRANH GAY GT TRN SN NH (1)

CM N

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