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A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board

Usha Varanasi, Ph.D. Science Director Philip Roni, Ph.D. Research Fishery Biologist

Northwest Fisheries Science Center NOAA Fisheries Service

August 2005

Salmon Recovery from Summit to Sea -- Lessons from Puget Sound

A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board

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Outline

• Purpose• Issue• Presentation of Briefing• Desired Outcomes

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Purpose

• Present an informational briefing on science and management for recovery of west coast salmon populations

• Discuss successes and opportunities for next steps in Puget Sound

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Issue

• Difficulty translating ESA requirements into practical recovery goals for use by state, tribal and local entities

• Creating science and policy frameworks and products to support effective stakeholder decision-making

• Adopting sound recovery strategies through stakeholder-driven processes

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Presentation

1. Brief history of salmon recovery on the West Coast

2. Science-policy interactions in designing recovery strategies

3. Major advances in the science of salmon recovery

4. Emerging issues

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Presentation

1. Brief history of salmon recovery in the region

2. Science-policy interactions in designing recovery strategies

3. Major advances in the science of salmon recovery

4. Emerging issues

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Status of Pacific Salmon

• Considerable extinction of ESUs has occurred throughout range

• ESUs are the ESA-listing unit. They are:– Groups of populations– Distinct genetically and

ecologically

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• 58 identified ESUs, 26 listed under Endangered Species Act

• 6 geographically oriented recovery teams convened to identify delisting criteria

Status of Salmon Recovery

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Technical Recovery Teams

Broad Scientific Tasks:

• What are population boundaries?

• What are recovery goals (viability targets for populations and ESUs)?

• What actions are consistent with achieving goals?

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Presentation

1. Brief history of salmon recovery in the region

2. Science-policy interactions in designing recovery strategies

3. Major advances in the science of salmon recovery

4. Emerging issues

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Puget SoundTechnical Recovery

Team

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Puget SoundTechnical Recovery

Team

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Puget Sound ESU

• Independent populations of Puget Sound Chinook with geographic regions

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Status – Puget Sound

• Watershed plans completed by local recovery planning groups and submitted to NOAA Fisheries.

• Watershed groups worked through regional coordinating group (Shared Strategy)

• NOAA Fisheries will turn the plans into the recovery plan for the Puget Sound ESU.

• Coordinating group is designing governance structure for plan implementation.

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Science-policy interface between TRT and Shared Strategy

Science product Policy product

(Shared Strategy)• Identify population boundaries • Watershed planning groups

know specific populations on which to focus efforts

• Population and ESU viability criteria

• Population and ESU recovery goals

• Guidance document for developing watershed recovery plans; technical liaison consulting

• Draft watershed recovery plans

• Population and landscape modeling of restoration alternatives

• Estimates of results for salmon from recovery plans

• Technical reviews of certainty of plan outcomes

• Final watershed and regional recovery plans

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Developing conservation strategies and scenarios within watersheds

Technical Committee

Shared StrategyPolicy Development

Committee Forum

Conservation strategy(s)

Develop conservation

scenarios

Evaluate conservation scenarios using biological criteria

Socioeconomicanalysis

Goals

Selection of conservation scenario for inclusion

in plan

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Presentation

1. Brief history of salmon recovery in the region

2. Science-policy interactions in designing recovery strategies

3. Major advances in the science of salmon recovery

4. Emerging issues

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Major advances in the science of salmon recovery

SUMMARY:

• Defining common attributes of Viable Salmonid Populations (VSP) and ESUs

• Including a large-scale, ecosystem perspective to identify recovery needs

• Estimating the integrative effects of hatchery, harvest, hydropower and habitat management on salmon

• Scenario planning for restoration strategies under uncertain future conditions

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Viable Salmonid Populations

Population and ESU viability include 4 components:

1) abundance2) productivity 3) diversity4) spatial structure

(McElhany et al. 2000)

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HarvestHarvest HabitatHabitat

HatcheryHatchery HydroHydro

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Conceptual foundation for designing & evaluating salmon recovery strategies

• Life-cycle model is at the core

• Changes to the “H’s” alter habitats, ecological interactions, and population dynamics

Life-cycle model

Hatchery effects

Habitat effects

Harvest effects

Land use

Landscape processes

Hydropowereffects

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Monitoring

• Management actions as experiments to assess effectiveness

• Need to evaluate restoration approaches

• Provide technical guidance and assistance to “recovery practitioners”

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S

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S: SupplementationR: ReintroductionC: Control

S

SS

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Hood Canal Chum Supplementation Program

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Watershed processes & human impacts: understanding causes of habitat threats

• Focus on landscape processes and land use impacts affecting streams

Landscapeprocesses

Land use

Habitat conditions

Biologicalresponse

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Restoration Effectiveness

Assessments

Prioritization

Monitoring & Evaluation

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Key Restoration Questions

Reach Scale• What is effect of project x on local conditions? • What is effect of projects like x on local conditions?

Watershed Scale

• What is effect of project x on conditions in watershed or basin?

• What is effect of a suite of projects on conditions in a watershed or basin?

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• Physical habitat (LWD, boulder structures, ELJs)

• Reconnection/creation of floodplain habitats

• Dam removal

• Levee removal

Habitat restoration actions

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Watershed Scale Restoration - Elwha River

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Watershed Scale Evaluation

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Presentation

1. Brief history of salmon recovery in the region

2. Science-policy interactions in designing recovery strategies

3. Major advances in the science of salmon recovery

4. Emerging issues

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Chemical Habitat QualityCoho Pre-spawn Mortality

Longfellow Creek, Fall 2002

Dead females (spawned out)

n = 80

5

10

0

Daily rainfall in the Longfellow watershed (inches)

0.51.01.5

0

5

10 Flow in Longfellow Creek (cfs)

Dead and symptomatic females (pre-spawn)

n = 640

5

10 *

*

*= no sampling (high flows)

10/1/02 11/1/02 12/1/02

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Role of Climate and Ecosystems

• Impacts of climatic and oceanographic variation on salmonid survival and population status

• Determine impacts to food web structure due to introduced species and human activities

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Climate Model

Hydrology Model

Air Temp., Meteorology

Salmon Pop. Model(SHIRAZ)

Stream flow, Temp.

Salmon Population Forecast

Land Cover & Land Form

Maps

PredictedAtmospheric

CO2

How Robust are Recovery Actions to Alternative Future Scenarios

(land use and climate)?

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Emerging Issues: Developing an Ecosystem-based Recovery Strategy for Puget Sound

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Desired Outcomes

• SAB endorsement of the approach to recovery planning used in Puget Sound

• SAB support for developing an ecosystem approach to management in Puget Sound

• SAB ideas on opportunities for ecosystem-based science in Puget Sound