080930 Deutsche Bank

25
Deutsche Bank São Paulo, October 1, 2008

Transcript of 080930 Deutsche Bank

Page 1: 080930   Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank

São Paulo, October 1, 2008

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2

Information and ProjectionThis notice may contain estimates for future events. These estimates merely reflect the expectations

of the Company’s management, and involve risks and uncertainties. The Company is not responsible

for investment operations or decisions taken based on information contained in this communication.

These estimates are subject to changes without prior notice.

This material has been prepared by TAM S.A. (“TAM“ or the “Company”) includes certain forward-

looking statements that are based principally on TAM’s current expectations and on projections of

future events and financial trends that currently affect or might affect TAM’s business, and are not

guarantees of future performance. They are based on management’s expectations that involve a

number of business risks and uncertainties, any of each could cause actual financial condition and

results of operations to differ materially from those set out in TAM’s forward-looking statements. TAM

undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forwardlooking statements.

This material is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation

or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Likewise it does not give and

should not be treated as giving investment advice. It has no regard to the specific investment

objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. No representation or warranty, either

express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information

contained herein. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own

judgment.

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PreviousPeriod

CurrentPeriod

J F MAM J J A SOND J F MAM J J A SOND J F MAM J J A SOND J F MAM J J A80

8590

95100

105110

115120

125130

Domestic Market - Variation(vs previous period)

The domestic market grew 11% from January to August 2008

Source: ANAC

Accum. market growth 2006

12%

Accum. market growth 2005

19%

Accum. market growth 2007

12%

Accum. market growth 2008

11%

20072005 2006 2008

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PreviousPeriod

Market

TAM

J F MAM J J ASOND J FMAM J J ASOND J F MAM J J ASOND J F MAM J J A40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

International Market - Variation(vs previous period)

The international market (among Brazilian carriers) is recovering and grew 37% …

Source: ANAC

Accum. Marketgrowth 2008

37%

Acum TAM 200641%

Acum TAM 2007 71%

Acum TAM 200540%

Acum TAM 2008 44%

Accum. market growth 2005

7%

Accum. market decrease 2006

30%

Accum. market decrease 2007

5%

20072005 2006 2008

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…with higher growth anticipated for Brazilian carriers due to the unbalance in the bilateral agreements…

Source: ANAC annual report

* estimates

58.2%

41.8%

57.7%

42.3%

66.9%

33.1%

71.2%

28.8%

69.2%

30.8%

2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan - Aug2008*

0

20

40

60

80

100%

% international passenger

BrazilianCarriers

IntlCarriers

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…observed in many countries, as the example between Brazil and USA

77

107

147

2821

357

10542

Italy

England

Germany

France

Spain

USA

1414

1414

2121

3030

5151

126*126*

150 100 50 0 50 100 150

Weekly Frequencies

* 21 frequencies limited to the cities in the north, northeast and central west regions of Brazil and/or Belo Horizonte

Brazilian Carriers Foreign Carriers

Available space on bilateral Operated by Brazilian Carriers Operated by Foreign Carriers

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We are both domestic and international market leaders

TAM’s Domestic Market Share*

Source: ANAC

* RPK – Revenue passenger kilometer

TAM’s International Market Share* – Among Brazilian carriers

33,0%35,8%

48,0% 48,9% 49,30% 48,2%

54,2%

43,5%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan - Jul 2008 2Q08 Aug/08

12,0% 14,3%

37,5%

67,5%70,9% 74,0% 73,9%

18,8%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jan - Jul 2008 2Q08 Aug/08

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Our mix of international revenue reduced due to the appreciation of Real and increase of domestic yield

34%

66%

31%

69%

2Q07 2Q080

20

40

60

80

100%

Revenue(Passenger + Cargo)

Dollarexchangerate

DomesticInternational

1.926

63%37%

1.592

62%38%

Approximately 50% of our costs

(including fuel) are exposed to foreign

currencies

-17%

ASK proportion

International(Dollar denominated)

Domestic(Real denominated)

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156196

531

1,170

226

256

603

1,530

2Q07 2Q08

2,054

2,615

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Gross Revenue (R$ M) Domestic passenger revenue grew 31%

RPK increased 8%

ASK increased 14%

International passenger revenue grew 13%

RPK increased 29%

ASK increased 22%

Cargo revenue grew 31%

Other revenue grew 45%

Our gross revenue increased 27%...

27%

Domestic Pax International Pax Cargo Other

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... total RASK increased 9.5%...

RASK total ¹ ²

RASK scheduled domestic²

Domestic load factor - %

Yield scheduled domestic³

RASK scheduled international²

International load factor - %

Yield scheduled international³

Yield scheduled international³ (USD cents)

2Q07 1Q08 2Q08 vs 2Q07

2Q08 vs 1Q08

R$ Cents

1 Includes charter. cargo and Other revenues. net of taxes2 Net of taxes3 Gross of taxes

16.80

15.26

71.9

22.25

12.30

69.1

17.83

9.26

16.38

15.37

69.9

23.09

11.39

76.9

14.82

8.47

18.40

17.66

68.1

27.23

11.48

73.4

15.64

9.82

9.5

15.7

-3.9 p.p.

22.4

-6.7

4.3 p.p.

-12.3

6.1

12.3

14.9

-1.8 p.p.

17.9

0.8

-3.5 p.p.

5.5

16.0

6.39 6.51 7.21 12.9 10.7 RASK scheduled

international² (USD cents)

2Q08

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...and the total CASK increased 8.4%...

CASK

CASK excl-fuel

2Q07 2Q08

16.5217.91

0

5

10

15

20

Total CASKBR GAAP - R$ cents

2Q08 vs 2Q07

-3.4%

8.4%

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2Q07 2Q08

69

92

0

20

40

60

80

100EBIT - R$ M

...improving our margins and earnings

Margin over net revenue

2Q07 2Q08

33

67

0

20

40

60

80EBIT - R$ M

2Q07 2Q08

-29

50

-40

-20

0

20

40

60Net Income - R$ M

BR GAAP

US GAAP

2Q07 2Q08

69

214

0

50

100

150

200

250Net Income - R$ M

2Q07 2Q08

0.46

1.42Earnings per share - R$

2Q07 2Q08

-0.19

0.33Earnings per share - R$

103%

2%3%

-1%

2%

34%

3% 4%

4%

9%

209% 209%

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BR GAAP Leasing IncomeTaxes

Others US GAAP

50

261

-84 -13214

0

100

200

300

400

Net Profit Reconciliation to US GAAP

46 aircrafts are reclassified as capital

leases as per SFAS nº 13

The main difference between BR and US GAAP is the accounting treatment of aircraft leasing

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Our balance sheet remains solid

R$ million - BRGAAP 2008* 2007 2006 2005 2004

Cash (1) 2.009 2.607 2.453 995 297

Short-Term Debt (2) 837 1.005 363 216 204

Long-Term Debt (3) 1.301 1.345 895 425 399

Total Debt (A) = (2) + (3) 2.138 2.350 1.258 641 603

Shareholder's Equity (4) 1.539 1.527 1.449 760 191

Capitalization (B) = (3 + 4) 2.839 2.872 2.344 1.185 590

Aircraft and flight equipment leases** (5) 6.193 5.976 5.032 4.389 4.557

Total Debt Adjusted (C) = (A + 5) 8.331 8.326 6.290 5.030 5.160

Total Capitalization Adjusted (D) = (3 + 4 + 5) 9.032 8.848 7.376 5.574 5.147

Debt / Capitalization (A / B) 75% 82% 54% 54% 102%

Adjusted Debt / Adjusted Capitalization (C / D) 92% 94% 85% 90% 100%

Adjusted Net Debt / Adjusted Capitalization (C - 1) / (D) 70% 65% 52% 72% 94%

* LTM

** Aircraft and flight equipment leases of the last twelve months x 7

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Debt deals

Debentures – R$ 500 million (September 2006) Subscription of 50,000 nominative, registered, non convertible debentures

with a nominal unit value of R$ 10 thousand

6 years term with the first payment in 2010

Bonds – US$ 300 million (April 2007) 7.375% Senior Notes due 2017

Loan agreements to finance pre-delivery payment Calyon and other banks to finance up to US$ 331 million for 4 B777-300ERs

BNP Paribas to finance up to US$ 117 million for 30 Airbus aircraft until 2010

Guaranties to support the financing of aircraft Ex-Im Bank for the Boeing fleet

ECAs for the Airbus fleet

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We are beginning to evaluate new potential business units in the company

TAM Linhas Aéreas

MRO(São Carlos)

Loyalty Program

HandlingCargo

Already structured as a business unit with focus in maximizing assets

None or little focus on selling services to third-parties

Not structured as business units

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Maintain leadership in both domestic and international markets

ASK growth of

Domestic 14%

International 40%

Average load factor at approximately 70% overall

Reduction of 7% in total CASK ex-fuel in BR GAAP yoy

Three additional international destinations or frequencies in 2008

Domestic market demand growth from 8% to 12% (in RPK terms)

2008 Guidance

We have a positive outlook for 2008

TAM

Market

Jan – Aug 2008

10.9%

49.9% dom71.3% intl

13.8%

33.1%

72.3%

-4.5%*

* Accumulated from January to June, 2008** In final approval phase by ANAC

Brasília – Buenos Aires Rio de Janeiro – Miami São Paulo – Lima Rio de Janeiro – NY** São Paulo – Orlando**

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Our growth plan is supported by a flexible fleet plan

3

14

88

10

44

16

101

44

18

104

44

20

110

44

22

113

84

22

115

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

115125

130138

143149

0

50

100

150

Total fleet

B777 MD11 Airbus wide-body Airbus narrow-body F100

Since dec/07 we

are monofleet in

domestic operations

B767

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Brazilian domestic market has high growth potential

Boardings per capita

Boardings per capita, adjusted by GDP per capita at PPP

Source: World Bank Data, Credit Suisse Research as of 2006

Annual Trips / Person

1.70

1.85

2.32

0.62

0.60

0.55

0.50

0.82

Japan

US

Argentina

Chile

Mexico

Russia

Brazil

Germany

100107.3

111.4117.4100

140.6

157.6

100

121.2

175.4

228.2

256.8

104.9

176.4

112.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Market’s RPK

GDP

TAM’s RPK

Growth of Brazilian Domestic Market

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High concentration of passengers in 11 airports

Source: ANAC

Important barrier to entry for newcomers

Limited ability for other competitors to grow

11 main airports in Brazil carry 72% of all passenger traffic

TAM has in aggregate ~40% of all slots available in these airports

% TAM slots

43%

34%

39%

32%

44%

42%

27%

26%

40%

32%

46% Fortaleza

Rio de Janeiro4

Recife

Curitiba

Porto Alegre

Belo Horizonte

Salvador

Rio de Janeiro³

Brasília

São Paulo²

São Paulo¹

% Total Domestic Passengers Boarded

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

20062007

1 Congonhas2 Guarulhos3 Galeão4 Santos Dumont

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As Brazil becomes “stable”, the leisure segment will become increasingly more important

Leis

ure

Busi

nes

s

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

17.9

26.6 27.025.2

28.2

35.4

39.7

44.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Domestic Market Passenger Mix (RPK M)

CAGR

11%

22%

Traveling is one of the top “desire” items for consumption

* TAM Estimates

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We will be expanding our fare bundle strategy for the domestic market in 2008...

Addition of extra features in the segmented bundles

Ability to “sell up” categories

Potential for further revenue increase

Harmonization of the fare bundle strategy to TAM Fidelidade growth

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...increasing capillarity of sales through our new methods of payments... Launched new methods of payment in May 2007

Payment at lottery stores Approximately 9,000 stores in Brazil

Already functioning as bank correspondent Billing slipsAutomatic debit Financing for passengers via direct consumer credit with the

main retail banks

Focus on leisure/lower income segments

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...optimizing the utilization of our aircraft on off peak hours

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2355

60

65

70

75

80%

Load Factor per hour

2Q08Oct 2007

Off Peak Peak Off Peak Peak Off Peak