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Transcript of 05
CEAL, Sao PauloOctober 15, 2010
ENERGY PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVESFOR THE 21ST CENTURY
Thomas B JohanssonProfessor, International Insitute for Industrial Environmental Economics,
Lund University, Lund, Sweden,
Co-Chair, Global Energy Assessement, IIASA, Austria
From: Steffen et al. 2004
IGBP
Climate Change
Ocean acidification
Ozone depletion
Global Freshwater Use
Rate of Biodiversity
Loss
Biogeochemical loading: Global N & P Cycles
Atmospheric Aerosol Loading
Land System Change
Chemical Pollution
Planetary Boundaries
Challenges requiring actions on Energy
a. Energy services for growing populations and economies
b. access to modern forms of energy (the 2 billion w/o access)
c. affordable energy services (@$100/bbl??)
d. secure supplies, from households to nations
e. local and regional health and environment challenges
f. climate change mitigation
g. ancillary risks
=> Major Energy System Changes Needed!
adequately
timely
simultaneously
These challenges must be addressed
Assessement
Process leading to a Report and much more
25 Knowledge Modules, ~200 authors, geographically and gender diversified
Stakeholder consultations
External peer review
Extensive dissemination
Informing Rio +20 and other international, regional, naitonal and corporate on energy and/or linked to energy issues
Supporting the GEA:Supporting the GEA:
International OrganizationsInternational OrganizationsUNDESAUNDESAUNDP UNDP UNEPUNEPUNIDOUNIDOWorld BankWorld BankIIASAIIASA
Country Governments/AgenciesCountry Governments/AgenciesAustriaAustriaBrazilBrazilEuropean UnionEuropean UnionGermanyGermanyItalyItalySwedenSwedenUSAUSA
CorporationsCorporationsPetrobrasPetrobrasTEPCOTEPCOFirst SolarFirst Solar Industry groupsIndustry groupsWECWECWBCSDWBCSD
FoundationsFoundationsUN FoundationUN FoundationClimate WorksClimate Works
Four Clusters of Knowledge modules:
1.The Challenges, nature and magnitude of change required
2.Resources and technology options
3.Pathways to sustainability, urbanisation, rural energy, and land use
4.Policies, energy end use and supply sectors, access, innovation, capacity developoment
Electricity
●ElectricityElectricity for All in the Medium Term for All in the Medium Term
(may be achievable(may be achievable))– Use of both grid-extensionUse of both grid-extension
and decentralized systems +and decentralized systems +
conventional and renewableconventional and renewable
energy technologiesenergy technologies– Strong national (and local) + Strong national (and local) +
public (and private) public (and private)
delivery modelsdelivery models– Smart use of subsidies and Smart use of subsidies and
other innovative financing mechanisms other innovative financing mechanisms
(global effort would be required)(global effort would be required)
Clean Cooking Fuels
● Biogas, LPG, alcohols, kerosene, electricity
● Benefits– Health– Time spent– Reduced emissions of
● Products of incomplete combustion● Black carbon
World crude oil production model
Nashawi et al., Energy Fuels 2010, 24, 1788–1800
Global emission pathways in compliance with a 2 ºC guardrail, with 67% probability
(WBGU 2009)
this translates into a need for a major energy systems transformation
Main elements:● Energy end-use efficiency● Renewable energies● Carbon Capture and Storage (for CC only)
● Efficiency and Renewables are INSTRUMENTS for addressing all the challenges at the same time!
“PassivHaus”
Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz
0
50
100
150
200
250
Stávající zástavba Pasivní dům
celk
ová
ener
gie
[kW
h/m
2 a] - 90%
- 75%
Example of savings by reconstruction Reconstruction according to the passive house
principle
-90%15 kWh/(m²a)over 150 kWh/(m²a)
Before reconstruction
Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz, EEBW2006
21
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
TWh
Space heating and cooling final energy consumptionSummation, 1.4% Retrofit, exemplary buildings
OECD90
Asia
REF
MAF
LAC
Work
in p
rogre
ss – do n
ot cite
or q
uote
-77%
Final thermal energy consumption in the world’s buildings by region, 2005-2050
3%/yr retrofit rate
How far can buildings take us?How far can buildings take us?
Letter Horse Hay Agriculture Sunlight
Telegraph Steam Locomotive
Coal Coal mine Coal fields
Interntet, Mobile Phone
ICE Automobile
Gasoline Oil refinery Crude oil
Convergence Energy, Mobility
InformationHydrogen
Natural gas / fossils
SMR, decarbonization
Electrolysis
Sunlight
Wind
Uranium
1770s
1870s
1970s
2070s
Mobility and Communication Through Time
Biomass
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Source: David Sanborn Scott, 200423
Source: REN21
Nuclear PWR Investment CostsNuclear PWR Investment CostsUS overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interestsUS overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interests
mean/best guess and min/max of costsmean/best guess and min/max of costs
US: Koomey&Hultman, 2007, France: Grubler, 2009 Source: GEA KM24 forthcoming
1000
10000
1 10 100
cum GW installed
20
08
$/k
W
US average
France best guess
Nuclear PWR Investment Costs(US overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interests)
1980
1977
1985
1971
1975
1980
1983
1996
1995
5000
2000
3000
4000
1000
Figure 16 Fission power reactor start-ups and shutdowns (IAEA, 2010)
10%
16% 15%
21%
31%
36%
6%
10%12%
14%
28%
32%
4.0% 4.5% 4.9% 5.5% 6.2% 7.0%
3.1% 3.4% 3.7% 4.2% 4.8%5.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Renewable power capacity addition as a % of global power capacity addition
Renewable power generation increase as a % of global power generation increase
Renewable power as a % of global power capacity
Renewable power as a % of global power generation
Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2010
Excl. large hydro
Global energy transitions
0
100
200
300
400
500
1850 1900 1950 2000
Pri
ma
ry E
ne
rgy
(E
J)
Biomass
Oil
Gas
Renewable
NuclearMicrochip
Steammotor
Gasolinetube
Commercial Nuclear
Television
engine
engineElectric
Vacuum
energy
Coal
aviation
World Primary Energy
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
EJ
Geothermal
Solar
Hydro
Wind
Biomass_wCCS
Biomass_woCCS
Nuclear
Gas_wCCS
Gas_woCCS
Oil
Coal_wCCS
Coal_woCCS
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
EJ
Geothermal
Solar
Hydro
Wind
Biomass_wCCS
Biomass_woCCSNuclear
Gas_wCCS
Gas_woCCS
Oil
Coal_wCCS
Coal_woCCS
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
EJ
Geothermal
Solar
Hydro
Wind
Biomass_wCCS
Biomass_woCCS
Nuclear
Gas_wCCS
Gas_woCCS
Oil
Coal_wCCS
Coal_woCCS
GEA-L
GEA-M
GEA-H
Pathways to sustainability,
All pathways meeting the same ”sustainability” criteria in addressing multiple challenges
Work in progress!
Wind Power in EU-27 and FITsWind Power in EU-27 and FITs
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Elec
tric
ity
Gen
erati
on (T
Wh)
Countries with wind FIT Countries with alternative support
Public Energy R&D in OECD
Source: IEA, 2008
not just energy technology
● Urban planning
● Transportation systems
● Material use
● Land use
● Consumption patterns
● …..
Economic development and poverty alleviationEconomic development and poverty alleviation while mitigating climate change while mitigating climate change
● Multiple benefits conceptMultiple benefits concept
● Value Value all all benefits (jobs, growth, security, health, benefits (jobs, growth, security, health, local environment, ...)local environment, ...)
● Costs in terms of € per tC misleadingCosts in terms of € per tC misleading
● Energy efficiencyEnergy efficiency
● Renewable energiesRenewable energies
Major findings and conclusionsMajor findings and conclusions
● Rapidly changing worldRapidly changing world● Transformative changes needed on energyTransformative changes needed on energy● Window of opportunity existsWindow of opportunity exists● Resources and technologies existResources and technologies exist● Rapidly growing role for renewable energiesRapidly growing role for renewable energies● Electricity growing importanceElectricity growing importance● Policies and institutions criticalPolicies and institutions critical● Energy subsidies and R&D misallocatedEnergy subsidies and R&D misallocated● Capacity development worldwideCapacity development worldwide
Thank you!Thank you!
www.globalenergyassessment.orgwww.globalenergyassessment.org
Reasons for Concern – “The Red Embers”Reasons for Concern – “The Red Embers”
2 oC
Source: Smith et al. PNAS, 2009