© Copyright 2014, First Solar, Inc. · 2014-07-23 · Based on First Solar estimates of LCOE...
Transcript of © Copyright 2014, First Solar, Inc. · 2014-07-23 · Based on First Solar estimates of LCOE...
© Copyright 2014, First Solar, Inc.
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Solar PV in 1954: “the technology of the future”
Yuma County, Arizona
Customer: NRG Energy & MidAmerican
Size: 290MW (AC)
Construction Time: 2010—2014
Acres: ~2,400
Modules: ~5 million
“Solar Project of the Year” — Renewable Energy World
2.0 Miles
3.0
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San Luis Obispo County, California
Customer: MidAmerican
Size: 550MW (AC)
Construction Time: 2011—2015
Acres: ~7,800 site
Modules: ~9 million
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U.S. Utility Scale Installations (MW)
53 73 176
798
1,342
2,842 2,772 2,765 2,828
2,304
4,193
53 125 301 1,099 2,441
5,283
8,056
10,821
13,649
15,953
20,145
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5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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An
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Utility-Scale (Annual)
Utility-Scale (Cumulative)
Source: IHS Global, Projects 5MW and higher are considered Utility Scale
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The Audacious Goal of 6c/kWh by 2020
From: Feb. 2014 DOE Progress Report: Advancing Solar Energy Across America Data courtesy of National Renewable Energy Lab. Chart by Daniel Wood.
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The Audacious Goal of 6c/kWh by 2020
From: Feb. 2014 DOE Progress Report: Advancing Solar Energy Across America Data courtesy of National Renewable Energy Lab. Chart by Daniel Wood.
-19%/Yr
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An Audacious Goal of 6c/kWh by 2020
From: Feb. 2014 DOE Progress Report: Advancing Solar Energy Across America Data courtesy of National Renewable Energy Lab. Chart by Daniel Wood.
-19%/Yr
2016
Total: 6 c/kWh
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Where are the Gains Coming From?
From: Feb. 2014 DOE Progress Report: Advancing Solar Energy Across America Data courtesy of National Renewable Energy Lab. Chart by Daniel Wood.
2016
Total: 6 c/kWh
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-30%/Yr
-10%/Yr
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Module Price Curve
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Module Price Curve
18 Yrs
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Module Price Curve
18 Yrs
9 Yrs
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Module Price Curve
18 Yrs Massive capacity
expansion (poly to module) 9 Yrs
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Where are the Gains Coming From?
From: Feb. 2014 DOE Progress Report: Advancing Solar Energy Across America Data courtesy of National Renewable Energy Lab. Chart by Daniel Wood.
2016
Total: 6 c/kWh
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-30%/Yr
-10%/Yr
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Variable Components of LCOE
Based on First Solar estimates of LCOE components over time
2016
BoS–Variable 15%
Module 17% Financing
33%
Dev 8%
OpEx 15%
BoS–Fixed 12%
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Which Opportunities Should we get EXCITED About?
Based on First Solar estimates of LCOE components over time
• Energy Density (Efficiency and Yield)
• Installed Cost Financing
33%
Dev 8%
OpEx 15%
• Installed Cost • Losses
• Technical Risk (Prediction and Reliability)
• Policy
• Availability • Operations
BoS–Variable 15%
Module 17%
BoS–Fixed 12%
18 NREL
Funded Research
Established Technology Platform
19 NREL
Funded Research
Established Technology Platform
Pure Corporate R&D
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Power Grid
Opportunities for Innovation Abound
Real-time Controllers Satellite Imagery
Transformer
Inverters
PV Module Arrays
Combiner Boxes
Power Conversion Station (PCS) Photovoltaic Combining
Switchgear (PVCS) Substation
Plant SCADA system
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What Works - from an Industry perspective?
• Basic science at Universities and National Labs
— The seeds of technology innovation take patience to nurture (not what we’re good at)
• Support for radical and disruptive concepts (high risk, high reward)
— Cost share and infrastructure support to entrepreneurs and innovators
— Goals must be fundamentally disruptive, not incremental
• Independent validation to reduce perceived risk (and resulting FINANCE COSTS)
— Testing and evaluations
— Well designed technical standards
• Demonstrations addressing constraints to adoption
— Projects showing that perceived integration risks can be addressed
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What Doesn’t Work - from an Industry perspective?
• Incremental goals and innovation should be left to the private sector
— Let the market work
• Localization of manufacturing is driven by state and national industrial policy, not technology
— Competition for jobs is global
— Technology can kick-start, but not sustainable
• The “Red Light, Green Light” game
— Business and science both need predictability
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53 73 176 798 1,342
2,842 2,772 2,765 2,828 2,304
4,193
53 125 301 1,099 2,441
5,283 8,056
10,821 13,649
15,953 20,145
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Cu
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Vo
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W)
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Utility-Scale (Annual)
Source: IHS Global, Projects 5MW and higher are considered Utility Scale
10% of Total Generation Capacity
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