© Copyright 2013, First Solar, Inc. · First Solar Cost Competitive with Conventional Energy...
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© Copyright 2013, First Solar, Inc. © Copyright 2013, First Solar, Inc.
Transcript of © Copyright 2013, First Solar, Inc. · First Solar Cost Competitive with Conventional Energy...
© Copyright 2013, First Solar, Inc. © Copyright 2013, First Solar, Inc.
© Copyright 2013, First Solar, Inc.
TAKING ENERGY FORWARD enabling a world powered by reliable and affordable solar electricity.
First Solar Overview
PV – a Solution to Contemporary Energy Problems
The Role of Utility-Scale PV
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First Solar at a Glance
Driving innovation across entire value chain and plant solution
Cost competitive with conventional energy sources today
Partner of choice for leading utilities and global power buyers
Over 8 GW installed worldwide and over 3GW contracted pipeline
Founded in 1999 and publicly traded on Nasdaq (FSLR)
Strongest financial stability & bankability in the industry
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World record 18.7% cell
History of Leadership Across Entire Solar Value Chain
Financed ~9B solar plants
Acquired EPC & project DEV
1999 … 2005 … 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
State-of-the-art Operations Center
Proprietary plant controller
Industry leading tracker technology
World’s largest PV plants
Integrating into the global energy mix
1st global module recycling program
1st to break $1/watt cost barrier
1st to produce 1GW in single year
1999 2012 2013
World record 16.1% module
Acquired disruptive x-Si technology
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Global Offices & Manufacturing Additional colored pins for you to mark custom locations such as projects or your home office.
Site Agua Caliente, AZ, USA
System Size 290MW
Owners NRG Energy & MidAmerican Solar
Site Greenough River, WA, Australia
System Size 10MW
Owners
Verve Energy & GE Energy Financial Services
Site Templin, Brandenburg
System Size 128MW
Owner Commerzreal
Developer Belectric
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Project Development & Execution • Sustainable Markets • Southern Europe, Turkey • Self Consumption solutions
Partnership & Acquisition • Markets with reliable RE regulation • Joint Project Development • Pipeline Acquisition
Modules, AC Power Blocks, Services • Technology Sales • Project Business only
First Solar in Europe
© Copyright 2013, First Solar, Inc.
First Solar Overview
PV - a Solution to Contemporary Energy Problems
The Role of Utility-Scale PV
TAKING ENERGY FORWARD
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Europe & Germany: Energy Policy Goals
./. 40% (2020)
./. 85% (2050) vs. 1990
./. 20% (2020)
./. 50% (2050)
35-40% (2020) 80% (2050)
18% (2020) 60% (2050)
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Share of RE on Gross Power Consumption in GE and GE Government Targets
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Germany: „Energiewende“
• Elimination (Phasing-Out) of Nuclear power production in 2022
• Municipalities contribute to reach CO2 reduction targets and renewable energy 2020 targets
As a result:
• Renewable Energy will form the backbone of energy generation in Germany
• As most Renewable Energy Sources are fluctuating, grid integration, storage and backup solutions are necessary
• Grid expansion program (for Off-Shore-Wind) and local transmission necessary, but distributed local energy production can reduce expansion needs
• Energy Research Funds should promote Storage, Grid Technologies and Integration of RE in market and grid
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Germany: „Energiewende“
How can PV power plants benefit the Energiewende?
• By enabling decentralization of power generation close to existing clients whereby maintaining zero CO2 emissions
• By empowering municipal utilities to „green“ and broaden their power generation portfolio
• By providing competitive power generation on a fixed price for 25 years
• By fitting perfectly into power generating portfolios, in particular with wind and gas
• By being suitable for integration in local grids and provide grid stabilization mechanisms
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• PV has high upfront capital costs with low ongoing operating costs
• Cost of Capital significantly impacts total cost of ownership
• De-risking the project cash flow, lowers the cost of capital available to a project
Impact of Project Finance on PV Electricity Cost
Cost of Financing is a Key Driver of LCOE
Module
25%
OpEx
8%
Financing
36%
BoS
26%
Development
5%
© Copyright 2013, First Solar, Inc.
First Solar Overview
PV - a Solution to Contemporary Energy Problems
The Role of Utility-Scale PV
TAKING ENERGY FORWARD
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Market Segments
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$0,00
$0,10
$0,20
$0,30
$0,40
$0,50
$0,60
Coal NuclearU.S. (NG) Japan (LNG) U.S. (NG)
Gas PeakingEU (NG) Japan (LNG) India
DieselAustralia EU
First Solar
Cost Competitive with Conventional Energy Sources Today
Sources: Coal and Nuclear: Bloomberg New Energy Finance LCOE Update: Q2 2013; Gas Combined Cycle, Gas Peaking, and Diesel: Lazard LCOE Sensitivity Analysis June 2013; First Solar: Internal data. (a) Does not include cost of carbon capture. (b) NG = natural gas. LNG = liquefied natural gas. Data assumes natural gas prices of $10 in Northern Europe and $18 in Japan (all in US$ per MMBTU). (c) Assumes diesel prices of $3.00 for India, $4.30 for Australia, and $7.00 for Northern Europe (all in US$ per gallon). Diesel assumes a high end capacity factor of 30% representing intermittent utilization and low end capacity factor of 95% representing base load utilization, O&M cost of $15 per KW/year, heat rate of 10,000 BTU/KWh and total capital costs of $500-$800 per KW of capacity.
a b b c Gas Combined Cycle
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Applications for the German Market
Self-Consumption Solutions
Contracting
Adding solar PV to local/regional power generation protfolios
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PPAs Seek to Balance Utility and Investor Interests
Utility Off-Taker Interests
Successful procurement of reliable, predictable power
Protect ratepayers
Keep rates low
Diversify generation portfolio
Meet load growth
Meet renewable energy targets
Investor Interests
Financeable project with predictable, long-term revenues
Terms acceptable to lenders and investors
Secure revenue stream to service debt
Avoid risks best controlled by utility
Limit lender downside
Creditworthy off-taker
Sufficient revenue to service debt
Stable revenue stream
Term of PPA covers term of loan
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Securing the PV Project Cash Flow
Feed-in-Tariff
Power Regulator
Land Lease
Debt Service
Dividends
O & M
Sovereign Risk Regulatory Risk
Feed-in-Tariff
Power Utility/IPP
Land Lease
Debt Service
Dividends
O & M
Energy Market Risk Corporate Risk
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Goal of Research and Methodical Approach
Role of utility solar power plants in Germany
Cost Analysis Integration to the Energy System
Comparison of fossile and renewable power production considering the 40-year-lifecycle
Regional consideration of LCOE
Competitiveness of solar power plants in an European comparison
Possible allocation of technological system services (grid stability)
Analysis of the energy generation profile of solar power plants
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RES LCOE in Germany (excluding grid costs) on 20-year-timeframe
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Region 1
Region 2
Region 3
Region 4
Source: Prognos AG
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Average LCOE of the Single Energy Generation Sources According to Regions* – 40 Year Life-Cycle
Region 1
Region 2
Region 3
Region 4
Source: Prognos AG
* excluding grid costs
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Solar Power Production is Predictable
Planned and Realized Power Production 2012
Source: Fraunhofer ISE
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Utility-Scale PV Grid Integration and Plant Control Systems
• Actively stabilize the electricity grid and enhance its reliability
• Manage variability with existing infrastructure
• Offer significant value to plant owners and grid operators ADVANCED PLANT FEATURES
Regulate voltage and power
factor
Control active and reactive
power
Control ramp rates
Regulate frequency
Fault ride through
Curtailment impact mitigation
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Utility-Sale PV is a Competitive Renewable Energy Source in Germany
Utility-sale PV is a competitive RES in Germany
A higher share of utility-scale PV in energy generation portfolio contributes to cost reduction of RES production and of the overall energy-system-transition
Utility-scale PV power plants offer long-term fixed power production cost; the hedging value of PV power generation has been calculated between 0.015 and 0.031 €/kWh (Source: LBBW, EPIA, 2009)
Utility-scale PV should be seen as independent RES and have their own capacity expansion target
Systemic aspects/advantages of RES need to be considered
However:
Starting end of 2013, building and operating solar power plants is uneconomic under current political framework conditions
The feed-in-tariff cap at 10 MW per plant and the restricted site selection limit the exploitation of the cost reducing potential.
The 52GW PV cap should be reviewed to consider the advantages of utility-scale PV
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Europe Team – [email protected]
Sales & Business Development
Order Management & Customer Service
Project Finance
Marketing Communications
Office Management & Sales Support
Stefan Degener [email protected] Andreas Wade [email protected] Jörg Veldmann [email protected]
Luca Rigoni [email protected]
Sonja Altesellmeier [email protected]
Sarah Junior [email protected]
Carina Würzberger [email protected]
© Copyright 2013, First Solar, Inc.
BACKUP
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Feed-in-tariffs for utility solar power plants show significant decrease
Threshold of 10cents /kwh was undercut in October 2013
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8,68,1
7,67,1
6,66,2
5,85,4
5,14,7
4,4 4,2
11,8
11,010,4
9,9
8,88,5
8,2 8,07,8
7,57,3
7,1 6,9 6,7
9,7 9,6 9,4 9,3 9,2 9,0 8,9 8,8 8,6 8,5 8,4 8,2 8,2
Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Okt 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Okt 14 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Okt 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Okt 16
Bei Zubau zwischen 5,5 und 6,5 GW Bei Zubau zwischen 4,5 und 5,5 GW
Bei Zubau zwischen 3,5 und 4,5 GW Bei Zubau zwichen 2,5 und 3,5 GW
Bei Zubau zwichen 2,0 und 2,5 GW Bei Zubau zwichen 1,5 und 2,0 GW
Entwicklung der nominalen EEG-Vergütungssätze für Freiflächen-Solarkraftwerke in Abhängigkeit vom gesamten PV-Marktvolumen in Cent/kWh
Development of nominal Feed-in-tariffs for solar power plants dependent on total PV market capacity (in cents/kwh)
Source: Prognos AG
