Assessing the WMD Terrorist Threat. Historical Examples Examples of use by Non-State Actors Sri...

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Assessing the WMD Terrorist Threat

Transcript of Assessing the WMD Terrorist Threat. Historical Examples Examples of use by Non-State Actors Sri...

Assessing the WMD Terrorist Threat

Historical Examples

Examples of use by Non-State Actors

Sri Lanka: Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) used chlorine gas in its June 1990 assault on a Sri Lankan Armed Forces camp at East Kiran

Japan: Aum Shinrikyo used Sarin gas in several attacks - Matsumoto (March, 1994): 7 dead, 34 injured - Tokyo (April, 1995): 12 dead, 5,000 injured - also responsible for several attacks against individuals using syringes loaded with crude form of VX

High

Low

Low

High Capabilities & Opportunities

Intentions

Low Probability of Success

Very Complex

Basic Explosives(TNT, C-4)

High Probability of Success

The more complicated the weapon, the lower the chances of a successful operation

Small Arms & Light Weapons

High-yield Explosives(RDX, TATP)

CBRN Weapons

NonviolentProtests

Apocalyptic Terrorism

Threshold of catastrophic violence

A Spectrum of Ideologies

Groups that want to change the world, but reject the need for violent means

Groups that want to destroy the world, for various reasons,possibly with WMD

Groups that want to change the world, and see a need for violent means

Apocalyptic Vision

LowLethality

BiologicalNuclear

RadiologicalChemical

High-YieldExplosives

Total Destruction

Non-LethalWeapons Spectrum of Violent Ideologies

Ideology may indicate likely preference for certain type of WMD

Al-Qaida’s leadership has long expressed a direct interest in WMD. “It is our religious duty to acquire nuclear and chemical

weapons to terrorize the enemies of Allah” – Osama bin Laden, 1998

The 11th volume of Al-Qaeda’s 5000-page “Encyclopedia of Jihad” is devoted to explaining how to construct Chemical and Biological Weapons

Revelations post-9/11 provide evidence al-Qaida has sought to Establish links with Pakistani nuclear scientists Obtain nuclear suitcase bombs from Russia Procure Bio-Chem agents from Czech Republic, Iraq,

DPRK Develop means for spreading disease and poison

On a strategic level, Al Qaida’s leaders want:

To damage the U.S. and West economically a mushroom cloud (visual impact) more than

massive numbers of bio or chem deaths; to change the course of history; to “prove” that

even if we can win in Iraq, Afghanistan, we can’t win this war

to undermine Westphalian notion of nation-state supremacy in international order and power brokering Man-made systems are inferior to Holy Quran

to fuel aligned ideological movements by showing strength of weak against strong

Al Qaida’s leaders also believe:

Supporters of the global salafi-jihadist movement want and expect a “spectacular” event even bigger than 9/11

They are in competition with other “voices” in the Muslim world, and a catastrophic terror attack will allow them to claim center stage

America and the West have it coming; a WMD attack is necessary to “even the score”

A “Nuclear 9/11” would cause economic depression

Saudi Cleric Shaykh Nasir Bin Hamd Al-Fahd attempted to religiously legitimize the use of WMDs by stating that:

• Laws and treaties established by infidels against the use of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons have no standing in Islamic law.

• Pronouncements of historical Islamic jurists legitimate WMD and provide exceptions to the prohibition against killing women and children.

• Damage American bombs have done to Muslim lands over many years justifies revenge

(October 21, 2002): Abu Musab al-Suri, a Syrian who spent the 1990s working with al-Qaeda leaders to train fighters in the use of "poisons and chemicals" at two camps near Jalalabad and Kabul, praised the 9/11 attacks, but said a better plan would have been to load the hijacked airplanes with weapons of mass destruction:"Let the American people - those who voted for killing, destruction, the looting of other nations' wealth, megalomania and the desire to control others - be contaminated with radiation."

(September 28, 2006): Abu Ayyub al-Masri—the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq—encouraged his fellow terrorists to consider testing these weapons in Iraq:“The field of jihad (holy war) can satisfy your scientific ambitions, and the large American bases (in Iraq) are good places to test your unconventional weapons, whether biological or dirty, as they call them.”

Al-Qaida shows ongoing interest in radiological attacks (cf. Jose Padilla case)

Myriad sources could be used for this purpose▪ Medical/educational facilities, atomic waste storage

facilities, commercial sites

Most lack concerted security▪ Especially medical facilities

Disruptive socio-economic effects could be enormous▪ Especially if attack occurred in a congested urban area▪ Or at a major port city (Boston, Los Angeles, New York)

About 440 commercial N-power reactors in 31 countries. A 9/11-style suicide attack on a nuclear installation could be conducted by land, air, water or cyber attacks

Diagrams of American power plants found in Afghanistan. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Ramzi Binalshibh, two organizers of the 9/11 attacks, acknowledged in 2002:

“We first thought of striking a couple of nuclear facilities but it was eventually decided to leave out the nuclear targets – for now.”

Arrests made in Canada (2003), Britain (2004), Australia (2005), India (2006) to foil planned attacks on nuclear plants

• WMD terrorist attacks require intentions and capabilities; Few groups have intentions, even fewer have capabilities

• Al Qaida is considered by most analysts as one of the few groups in the “high intentions” and “potential high capability” category

• Concerted links between state CBRN proliferation and al-Qaida are yet to be established

• WMD challenges faced by terrorists include:- Response (massive retaliation) fears - Insufficient capability - Philosophical or moral issues