საქართველოს ფისკალური რისკები
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Transcript of საქართველოს ფისკალური რისკები
:
20 , 2012
2
................................................................................................................................ 3
............................................................................ 6
2004-2012 o ..................... 9
.......................................................... 13
................................................................................. 19
.............................................................................................................. 24
......................................................................................... 26
............................................................................................ 29
.............................................................................................................................. 30
3
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- .
,
84 % .
2013
- 3 , - 30 %-,
- 60 %-. , ,
. ,
, ,
,
,
.
2011-2012 ,
. , - 2010 45 %,
2012 33 %- . 2009
- 6.7 %, 2012 1.5 %-.
4
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2003-2011 .
. ,
(),
,
.
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,
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. , 2025
, 3 .
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: 2012 24. 6 %-, 2020 20.5 %-
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2016 -
. 2012-2016
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(. , 3).
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, 2015 6 %- , (2016-2025)
2 %- (. , 3).
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. ,
( 1).
1.
(%) (%)
100 30 200 15 25
150 40 250 20 30
200 50 300 25 35
:
9
2004-2012 o
2004 ,
.
,
2004-2007 .
()
. -
: 1. 2005- 2007 ,
, ;
2. 2008 2009 ,
, 2008 2,3%, 2009
-3,8 %- ,
2008 -
; 3. 2010-2011 , 2010
- 6,3% 7,0 % 2011 .
.
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.
10
:
1- , 3
: 1. 2004-2007 , - 63.2 %- 25.5 %-
. - ,
, 85 %- ,
. , 2001
,
(. , 1); 2. 2008-2010 ,
,
; 3. 2011-2012 , -
2012 - 33,4 %- .
2004 ,
. 21 7-
. , ( 2).
63.2%
50.5%
40.0%
32.0%
25.5% 31.2%
41.1% 45.0%
36.7% 33.4%
-0.6% 3.7% 2.2% 3.4% 0.8%
-1.9% -6.7% -4.5%
-1.3% -1.9%
11.1% 5.9%
9.6% 9.4% 12.3%
2.3% -3.8%
6.3% 7.0% 6.0%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1: ,
2003-2012
% % -
11
2: 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
21 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5
20% 20% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%
12-20%
12% 12% 12% +
25 % +
25 %
20% 20% 20%
33% 20% 20% 20% _ _ _ _ _
20% 20% 20% 20% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
0-30 % 0%, 5%, 12%.
,
. , 2003 2008
5,5- (. , 1).
(. , 2). 2004
,
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.
2005-2008 .
, 2008
1,7 %- , 2011 4%- .
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2008 -
. 2009 -
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12
2
. , - 6.7 %- .
.
2010
. 2011 -
1,3 %- ,
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.
,
. ,
,
, .
13
-
1996- 2011 .
( 3).
- 2013 18%- 2014 15%-.
-
, 2025 - 22,4 %-
.
3: -,
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025
24.6% 23.9% 22.9% 22.8% 22.8% 22.5% 22.4%
6.4% 5.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2%
3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7%
11.2% 11.2% 11.3% 11.3% 11.4% 11.5% 11.5%
2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.0%
0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%
0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
( ) 6,625 7,232 7,833 8,824 9,806 14,184 19,720
,
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(. , 2-5, 4-5).
14
2:
:
2005 2007 -
, ; 2008-
2009 - ,
- . 2- ,
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46
,
.
,
0,84 1,0 ,
(. , 4).
, - 1
0,84 .
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
% - -
15
3:
:
- ;
2010 ,
.
70 %- .
,
.
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0,7
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(. , 3-4). , 1 0,7
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-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
% -
16
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
% -
1,0.
, ,
, .
4:
:
5:
:
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
% -
17
( 4),
-
, ,
, 2025 , 3 .
:
TR(t) = IT(t-1)*(1+gt)*(1+it)*(1+at) + PT(t-1)*(1+g(t-1))*(1+i(t-1))*(1+at)+
+VAT(t-1)*(1+0,84gt)*(1+it)*(1+at) + ATD(t-1)*(1+gt/2) + ATI(t-1)*(1+0,7mt)
+ CT(t-1)*(1+mt)*(1+et) + RT(t-1)*(1+gt/2)*(1+at) + AT(t-1)*(1+0,02)
TR -
IT -
PT -
VAT -
ATD
ADI -
CT -
RT -
AT -
t -
t-1 -
g -
i -
a -
m -
e -
18
4: -,
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025
24.6% 23.9% 22.9% 22.7% 22.6% 22.1% 21.7%
6.4% 5.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2%
3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7%
11.2% 11.1% 11.1% 11.0% 10.9% 10.6% 10.3%
2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6%
0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%
0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
( ) 6625 7226 7815 8787 9744 13942 19075
19
, .
2012
, (-
33%).
78 % (. , 6,
6). 2-
3 .
, :
, 2013- 2025
( 2001
) - 3 %-,
, ;
/ - 78%/22%;
2016 0,25
;
.
:
20
5 parametrebi 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 zRvari vali/mSp 32.4% 29.4% 27.3% 26.4% 25.8% 24.6% 26.4% 50 vali/eqsporti 77.0% 65.4% 58.1% 55.6% 53.7% 49.2% 50.2% 200 vali/Semosavlebi 113.0% 111.4% 108.3% 105.8% 104.2% 102.0% 110.7% 300 valis momsaxureba/eqsporti 4.7% 6.1% 5.5% 3.8% 3.7% 4.3% 5.1% 25 valis momsaxureba/Semosavlebi 6.8% 10.4% 10.2% 7.2% 7.2% 8.9% 11.2% 35 / 28.6% 26.4% 25.2% 25.0% 24.7% 24.1% 23.8%
/ 29.6% 29.4% 28.2% 28.0% 27.7% 27.1% 26.8%
,
. :
3 , 2013-2015
. ,
-, . ,
,
. , 2009
,
. .
21
-
2013 2%-, 2014 1 %,
2015 3 %, 2016 6 %-. - 3 %.
:
6
parametrebi 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 zRvari
vali/mSp 32.4% 31.6% 30.5% 30.1% 29.0% 26.4% 27.4% 50
vali/eqsporti 77.0