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  • :

    20 , 2012

  • 2

    ................................................................................................................................ 3

    ............................................................................ 6

    2004-2012 o ..................... 9

    .......................................................... 13

    ................................................................................. 19

    .............................................................................................................. 24

    ......................................................................................... 26

    ............................................................................................ 29

    .............................................................................................................................. 30

  • 3

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  • 9

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    25.5% 31.2%

    41.1% 45.0%

    36.7% 33.4%

    -0.6% 3.7% 2.2% 3.4% 0.8%

    -1.9% -6.7% -4.5%

    -1.3% -1.9%

    11.1% 5.9%

    9.6% 9.4% 12.3%

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    1: ,

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  • 11

    2: 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

    21 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5

    20% 20% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%

    12-20%

    12% 12% 12% +

    25 % +

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  • 12

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  • 13

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    ( 3).

    - 2013 18%- 2014 15%-.

    -

    , 2025 - 22,4 %-

    .

    3: -,

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025

    24.6% 23.9% 22.9% 22.8% 22.8% 22.5% 22.4%

    6.4% 5.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2%

    3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7%

    11.2% 11.2% 11.3% 11.3% 11.4% 11.5% 11.5%

    2.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.0%

    0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%

    0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%

    0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

    ( ) 6,625 7,232 7,833 8,824 9,806 14,184 19,720

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  • 14

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  • 16

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  • 17

    ( 4),

    -

    , ,

    , 2025 , 3 .

    :

    TR(t) = IT(t-1)*(1+gt)*(1+it)*(1+at) + PT(t-1)*(1+g(t-1))*(1+i(t-1))*(1+at)+

    +VAT(t-1)*(1+0,84gt)*(1+it)*(1+at) + ATD(t-1)*(1+gt/2) + ATI(t-1)*(1+0,7mt)

    + CT(t-1)*(1+mt)*(1+et) + RT(t-1)*(1+gt/2)*(1+at) + AT(t-1)*(1+0,02)

    TR -

    IT -

    PT -

    VAT -

    ATD

    ADI -

    CT -

    RT -

    AT -

    t -

    t-1 -

    g -

    i -

    a -

    m -

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  • 18

    4: -,

    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025

    24.6% 23.9% 22.9% 22.7% 22.6% 22.1% 21.7%

    6.4% 5.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2%

    3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7%

    11.2% 11.1% 11.1% 11.0% 10.9% 10.6% 10.3%

    2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6%

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    0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%

    0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

    ( ) 6625 7226 7815 8787 9744 13942 19075

  • 19

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  • 20

    5 parametrebi 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 zRvari vali/mSp 32.4% 29.4% 27.3% 26.4% 25.8% 24.6% 26.4% 50 vali/eqsporti 77.0% 65.4% 58.1% 55.6% 53.7% 49.2% 50.2% 200 vali/Semosavlebi 113.0% 111.4% 108.3% 105.8% 104.2% 102.0% 110.7% 300 valis momsaxureba/eqsporti 4.7% 6.1% 5.5% 3.8% 3.7% 4.3% 5.1% 25 valis momsaxureba/Semosavlebi 6.8% 10.4% 10.2% 7.2% 7.2% 8.9% 11.2% 35 / 28.6% 26.4% 25.2% 25.0% 24.7% 24.1% 23.8%

    / 29.6% 29.4% 28.2% 28.0% 27.7% 27.1% 26.8%

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  • 21

    -

    2013 2%-, 2014 1 %,

    2015 3 %, 2016 6 %-. - 3 %.

    :

    6

    parametrebi 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 zRvari

    vali/mSp 32.4% 31.6% 30.5% 30.1% 29.0% 26.4% 27.4% 50

    vali/eqsporti 77.0% 70.2% 65.0% 63.4% 60.4% 52.9% 52.3% 200

    vali/Semosavlebi 113.0% 116.8% 117.7% 117.2% 114.9% 109.0% 116.4% 300

    valis momsaxureba/eqsporti 4.7% 6.6% 6.2% 4.5% 4.2% 4.6% 5.3% 25

    valis momsaxureba/Semosavlebi 6.8% 11.0% 11.3% 8.2% 8.0% 9.5% 11.8% 35 / 28.6% 27.1% 26.0% 25.7% 25.2% 24.2% 23.6%

    / 29.6% 30.1% 29.0% 28.7% 28.2% 27.2% 26.6%

    2013 - 7 %-, 2014 5,5 %, 2015

    4,5 %, 2016 3 %-.

    :

    7

    parametrebi 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 zRvari

    vali/mSp 32.4% 33.4% 33.3% 33.3% 31.5% 28.0% 28.4% 50

    vali/eqsporti 77.0% 74.3% 70.9% 70.0% 65.7% 56.0% 54.2% 200

    vali/Semosavlebi 113.0% 126.6% 132.5% 133.7% 128.2% 118.1% 123.2% 300

    valis momsaxureba/eqsporti 4.7% 6.1% 5.5% 3.8% 4.5% 4.9% 5.5% 25

    valis momsaxureba/Semosavlebi 6.8% 10.4% 10.2% 7.2% 8.9% 10.3% 12.4% 35 / 28.6% 26.4% 25.2% 24.9% 24.6% 23.7% 23.1%

    / 29.6% 33.4% 30.7% 29.4% 27.6% 26.7% 26.1%

  • 22

    2013 50 %- (1

    2,48 ) 2025 .

    :

    8

    parametrebi 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 zRvari

    vali/mSp 32.4% 40.5% 37.1% 35.2% 33.5% 29.0% 28.9% 50

    vali/eqsporti 77.0% 90.0% 78.9% 74.0% 69.7% 58.0% 55.1% 200

    vali/Semosavlebi 113.0% 152.2% 146.2% 140.3% 135.0% 121.2% 124.1% 300

    valis momsaxureba/eqsporti 4.7% 9.2% 8.2% 5.6% 4.8% 5.1% 5.6% 25

    valis momsaxureba/Semosavlebi 6.8% 15.5% 15.2% 10.7% 9.3% 10.6% 12.5% 35 / 28.6% 26.6% 25.4% 25.1% 24.8% 23.9% 23.3%

    / 29.6% 29.6% 28.4% 28.1% 27.8% 26.9% 26.3%

    2013-2015 :

    , ,

    2016 :

    9 parametrebi 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025 zRvari

    vali/mSp 32.4% 47.6% 47.9% 47.7% 44.2% 35.3% 32.6% 50

    vali/eqsporti 77.0% 105.7% 102.0% 100.4% 92.1% 70.5% 62.2% 200

    vali/Semosavlebi 113.0% 174.5% 183.3% 184.4% 173.8% 144.3% 137.3% 300

    valis momsaxureba/eqsporti 4.7% 9.9% 9.3% 6.7% 6.4% 6.1% 6.3% 25

    valis momsaxureba/Semosavlebi 6.8% 16.4% 16.8% 12.3% 12.0% 12.6% 13.9% 35 / 28.6% 27.3% 26.1% 25.9% 25.4% 24.4% 23.8%

    / 29.6% 34.3% 31.6% 30.4% 28.4% 27.4% 26.8%

  • 23

    , (, ,

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    - :

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    2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2025

    24.6% 23.6% 22.4% 22.0% 21.7% 20.5% 19.4%

    6.4% 5.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2%

    3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7%

    11.2% 10.9% 10.6% 10.3% 10.0% 9.1% 8.1%

    2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6%

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    0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%

    0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

    ( ) 6625 7152 7646 8503 9342 12913 17110

  • 24

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  • 25

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  • 26

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  • 29

    1. Georgia: Request for a Stand-By Arrangement and an Arrangement Under the Standby

    Credit Facility International Monetary Fund, IMF Country Report No. 12/98, April

    2012

    2. The Joint World BankIMF Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries

    IMF, April 2012

    3. Aghion, P., and S. Durlauf, 2005, Handbook of Economic Growth, Vols. 1A and 1B

    (Amsterdam: North-Holland)

    4. Becker, S., Deuber G., Stankiewicz, S. (2010). Public Debt in 2020: A sustainability

    analysis for DM and EM Economies., International Topics, Current Issues. Deutsche

    Bank Research.

    5. Glenday, Graham, Estimation of VAT Revenues based on Import and Domestic VAT

    Returns and Collection Data, Duke Center for International Development, Duke

    University, 2003

    6. Disclosing Fiscal Risks in the Post-Crisis World - Greetje Everaert, Manal Fouad, Edouard

    Martin, and Ricardo Velloso, IMF, 2009

    7. Fiscal Risks: Sources, Disclosure, and Management - Aliona Cebotari, Jeffrey Davis,

    Lusine Lusinyan, Amine Mati, Paolo Mauro, Murray Petrie, and Ricardo Velloso, IMF,

    2010

    8. Managing Fiscal Risks, Teresa Ter-Minassian Annual Meeting of the Spanish Economic

    Association, Zaragoza, December 12, 2008

    9. A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability and Cyclical Adjustment

    of Budgetary Aggregates, Julio Escolano, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF, 2010

    10. . 2010.

    : .

    6, 4: 1-20

    11. , , 2011

    12.

    13. 2012

  • 30

    1:

    :

    1: ( ) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

    1175 1937 2821 3910 5139 6552 5476 6086 7200 7450

    608 910 1397 1801 2454 2639 2531 2834 3499 3788

    % 51.7% 47.0% 49.5% 46.1% 47.8% 40.3% 46.2% 46.6% 48.6% 50.8%

    420 621 585 846 1215 2113 1858 2033 2591 2833

    % 36% 32% 21% 22% 24% 32% 34% 33% 36% 38%

    48 125 105 168 102 617 389 472 307 239

    % 4.1% 6.5% 3.7% 4.3% 2.0% 9.4% 7.1% 7.8% 4.3% 3.2%

    69 210 294 378 479 484 487 526 563 450

    % 5.9% 10.8% 10.4% 9.7% 9.3% 7.4% 8.9% 8.6% 7.8% 6.0%

    30 73 439 719 888 698 212 220 240 140

    % 2.6% 3.8% 15.6% 18.4% 17.3% 10.7% 3.9% 3.6% 3.3% 1.9%

    :

    -48 363

    252 459

    128

    -381

    -1223 -951

    -305 -514

    -2000

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    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

    ()

  • 31

    2: ( )

    2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

    1446 1977 2993 3947 5719 6920 6685 7023 7505 7964

    289 415 550 565 676 1008 1048 1120 1165 1218

    % 20.0% 21.0% 18.4% 14.3% 11.8% 14.6% 15.7% 15.9% 15.5% 15.3%

    . 312 328 564 767 1581 1614 1105 1139 1179 1188

    % 21.6% 16.6% 18.8% 19.4% 27.6% 23.3% 16.5% 16.2% 15.7% 14.9%

    169 141 120 104 97 121 171 206 290 341

    % 11.7% 7.1% 4.0% 2.6% 1.7% 1.7% 2.6% 2.9% 3.9% 4.3%

    105 217 441 343 413 524 435 393 426 447

    % 7.3% 11.0% 14.7% 8.7% 7.2% 7.6% 6.5% 5.6% 5.7% 5.6%

    383 434 558 762 851 1379 1506 1624 1660 1821

    % 26.5% 22.0% 18.6% 19.3% 14.9% 19.9% 22.5% 23.1% 22.1% 22.9%

    0 16 100 527 636 750 944 1001 833 954

    % 0.0% 0.8% 3.3% 13.4% 11.1% 10.8% 14.1% 14.3% 11.1% 12.0%

    189 426 660 879 1465 1524 1476 1540 1952 1995

    % 13.1% 21.5% 22.1% 22.3% 25.6% 22.0% 22.1% 21.9% 26.0% 25.1%

    :

    3:

    2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

    % 29.4 27.3 26.4 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.6 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.5 25.9 26.4

    ( ) 7373 7700 8330 9100 9916 10811 11788 12852 13995 15216 16503 17862 19286

    ( ) 1954 2074 2217 2385 2578 2798 3046 3321 3624 3954 4310 4694 5104

    (

    ) 8910 9335 10202 11101 12029 13078 14234 15498 16861 18321 19865 21499 23218

    6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0%

    6.5% 7.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.5% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.0%

    ( ) 30256 34189 38634 43077 47815 52836 57855 63062 68107 73215 77974 83042 88025

    1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65

    % 26.4% 25.2% 25.0% 24.7% 24.5% 24.3% 24.2% 24.1% 24.0% 23.9% 23.9% 23.9% 23.8%

    % 29.4% 28.2% 28.0% 27.7% 27.5% 27.3% 27.2% 27.1% 27.0% 26.9% 26.9% 26.9% 26.8%

    ( ) 8002 8623 9644 10656 11719 12864 14001 15194 16353 17529 18648 19809 20970

    ( ) 8910 9648 10803 11949 13154 14449 15737 17086 18397 19725 20987 22300 23611

    7932 8553 9574 10606 11669 12814 13951 15144 16303 17479 18598 19759 20920

    978 1096 1229 1342 1484 1635 1786 1942 2093 2246 2389 2541 2691

    908 1026 1159 1292 1434 1585 1736 1892 2043 2196 2339 2491 2641

  • 32

    4.

    RYI - + , INF - , ADM -

    Dependent Variable: LOG(VAT)

    Method: Least Squares

    Sample (adjusted): 1996Q2 2011Q4

    Included observations: 63 after adjustments

    Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

    C -4.704441 1.527700 -3.079428 0.0031

    LOG(RYI(-1)) 0.845993 0.231202 3.659116 0.0005

    INF(-1) 1.835530 0.221837 8.274227 0.0000

    ADM 0.336177 0.096577 3.480912 0.0009

    R-squared 0.971970 Mean dependent var 5.152089

    Adjusted R-squared 0.970545 S.D. dependent var 1.037276

    S.E. of regression 0.178022 Akaike info criterion -0.552432

    Sum squared resid 1.869819 Schwarz criterion -0.416360

    Log likelihood 21.40160 F-statistic 681.9684

    Durbin-Watson stat 1.187378 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

    2.

    -.8

    -.4

    .0

    .4

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    Residual Actual Fitted

  • 33

    3.

    )

    - -

    4.

    -

    -.4

    -.2

    .0

    .2

    .4

    10.4

    10.8

    11.2

    11.6

    12.0

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    Residual Actual Fitted

    -.6

    -.4

    -.2

    .0

    .2

    .4

    9.2

    9.6

    10.0

    10.4

    10.8

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

    Residual Actual Fitted

  • 34

    5.

    NY , ADM -

    Dependent Variable: LOG(PITSA)

    Method: Least Squares

    Sample: 1996Q1 2011Q4

    Included observations: 64

    Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

    C -4.774058 0.429644 -11.11165 0.0000

    LOG(NYSA) 1.206037 0.058965 20.45352 0.0000

    ADM 0.324934 0.068079 4.772905 0.0000

    R-squared 0.978719 Mean dependent var 4.779460

    Adjusted R-squared 0.978022 S.D. dependent var 0.859115

    S.E. of regression 0.127365 Akaike info criterion -1.237783

    Sum squared resid 0.989528 Schwarz criterion -1.136586

    Log likelihood 42.60906 F-statistic 1402.726

    Durbin-Watson stat 0.730652 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

    5.

    -.4

    -.2

    .0

    .2

    .4

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    Residual Actual Fitted

  • 35

    6. 6.

    :

    7.

    :

    230 161

    120 103

    101 86

    82 72

    68 55

    46 41

    39 39 38 37 35 34

    26 23

    10 10

    6

    0 50 100 150 200 250

    Japan

    Greece

    Italy

    United States

    Singapore

    France

    United Kingdom

    Austria

    Spain

    Poland

    Croatia

    Czech Republic

    Turkey

    Lithuania

    Latvia

    Ukraine

    Armenia

    Georgia

    China

    Moldova

    Azerbaijan

    Russia

    Estonia -

    , 2011

    $ GEL

    5,392,068 8,939,070

    4,215,704 6,998,070

    2,457,193 4,078,941

    634,811 1,053,786

    () 564,750 937,485

    558,950 927,858

    1,176,364 1,941,000

  • 36

    7. , 2012 31

    ,

    3 805

    783

    2 086

    2 107

    2 616

    11 397 :


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