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Acirc iacuteagraventildeograveicircyumlugravearingaring acircetharingigraveyuml iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteagraveyuml ntildearingograveuuml AcircIgraveIcirc atildeaumlaring egraveccediligravearingethyumlaringograventildeyuml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave iacuteagrave iumlicircacircaringethotildeiacuteicircntildeograveegrave Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave ntildeicircntildeograveicircegraveograve egraveccedil 10 951 ntildeograveagraveiacuteoumlegraveegrave ETHagraventildeiumlicirceumlicircaeligaringiacuteegravearing yacuteograveegraveotilde ntildeograveagraveiacute-oumlegraveeacute (acircaringntildeuumligraveagrave iacutearingethagraveacirciacuteicircigravearingethiacuteicircaring) egraveeumleumlthornntildeograveethegraveethoacutearingograve ethegraventilde 1 Aringntildeeumlegrave iacuteagrave ogravearingethethegraveograveicircethegraveegrave ethagraveccediligravearingethicircigrave 5deg oslashegraveethicircograveucirc iacuteagrave 10deg aumlicirceumlatildeicircograveucirc egraveigravearingaringograventildeyuml otildeicircograveyuml aacuteucirc icircaumliacuteagrave ntildeograveagraveiacuteoumlegraveyuml (ethagraveccediligravearingeth ogravearingethethegraveograveicircethegraveegrave iumlethegraveigravearingethiacuteicirc ntildeicircicircograveacircaringograventildeograveacircoacutearingograve ntildeegraveiacuteicirciumlograveegravedividearingntildeecircicircigraveoacute igraveagraventildeoslashograveagraveaacuteoacute) ograveicirc igraveucirc aacuteoacuteaumlaringigrave ntildedivideegraveograveagraveograveuuml yacuteograveoacute ogravearingethethegraveograveicircethegravethorn icircotildeacircagravedividearingiacuteiacuteicirceacute iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave egrave ethagraventildeecircethagraveoslashegraveacircagraveograveuuml iacuteagrave ethegraventilde 1 ntildearingethucircigrave oumlacircaringograveicircigrave Acirc iumlethicircograveegraveacirciacuteicircigrave ntildeeumloacutedivideagravearing ogravearingethethegraveograveicirc-ethegraveyuml icircecircethagraveoslasharingiacuteagrave ogravearingigraveiacuteucircigrave oumlacircaringograveicircigrave Iumleumlicircugraveagraveaumluuml icircotildeacircagravedividearingiacute-iacuteagraveyuml iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave (acirc ntildeicircicircograveacircaringograventildeograveacircegraveegrave ntilde icirciumlegraventildeagraveiacuteiacuteucircigrave acircucircoslasharing icircdividearingiacuteuuml eumlegraveaacutearingethagraveeumluumliacuteucircigrave ecircethegraveogravearingethegravearingigrave) iacuteagrave ntildearingatildeicircaumliacuteyuml ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve 47 iumlicircacircaringethotildeiacuteicircntildeograveegrave Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave Yacuteograveicircograve iumlicircecircagraveccedilagrave-ogravearingeumluuml aumlagraveeumlaringaring aacuteoacuteaumlaringigrave iacuteagraveccedilucircacircagraveograveuuml icircaacutearingntildeiumlaringdividearingiacuteiacuteicircntildeograveuumlthorn iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthorn-aumlaringiacuteegraveeacute Icircoumlaringiacuteegraveigrave ogravearingiumlaringethuuml ntilde ecircagraveecircicirceacute ograveicircdivideiacuteicircntildeograveuumlthorn igraveicircaeligiacuteicirc

acirc ograveagraveecircegraveotilde oacutentildeeumlicircacircegraveyumlotilde icirciumletharingaumlaringeumlegraveograveuuml ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicircaumlicircacircoacutethorn atildeeumlicirc-aacuteagraveeumluumliacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute

Iumlicircaumldividearingethecirciacutearingigrave divideograveicirc etharingdivideuuml egraveaumlaringograve iacutearing icirc ethagraventildedividearingogravearing agrave egraveigravearingiacute-iacuteicirc icircaacute icircoumlaringiacuteecircaring iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave ntildeiacuteegraveccediloacute Aacuteoacuteaumlaringigrave ntildedivideegraveograveagraveograveuuml divideograveicirc acircntildearing egraveigravearingthornugraveegravearingntildeyuml ntildeograveagraveiacuteoumlegraveegrave egraveccediligravearingethyumlthornograve ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute agraveaacutentildeicirceumlthornograveiacuteicirc ograveicircdivideiacuteicirc egraveeumlegrave iumlicirc ecircethagraveeacuteiacutearingeacute igravearingetharing icircaacutearingntildeiumlaringdividearingiacuteicirc agraveaacutentildeicirceumlthornograveiacuteicircaring aringaumlegraveiacutentildeograveacircicirc egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveeacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc iacuteagrave acircntildearingeacute iumlicircacircaringethotildeiacuteicircntildeograveegrave Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave iacuteagrave iumlethicircograveyumlaeligaringiacuteegraveegrave iumlicircntildeeumlaringaumliacuteegraveotilde iumlicirceumloacuteograveicircethagrave acircaringecircicircacirc Ograveicircatildeaumlagrave aringaumlegraveiacutentildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteucircigrave egraventildeograveicircdivideiacuteegraveecircicircigrave iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave acirc icirciumletharingaumlaringeumlaringiacuteegraveegrave ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicircaumlicircacircicirceacute atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluuml-iacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc ntildeograveagraveiacutearingograve icircoslashegraveaacuteecircagrave acirc acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteegraveegrave acircucirc-aacuteicircethicircdivideiacuteicircatildeicirc ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicirc δ ecircicircograveicircethagraveyuml icirciumletharingaumlaringeumlyumlaringograventildeyuml iumlicirc ocircicircethigraveoacuteeumlaring [2]

nδ = σ (1)

atildeaumlaring σ ndash ntildeetharingaumliacutearingecircacircagraveaumlethagraveograveegravedividearingntildeecircicircaring icircograveecirceumlicirciacutearingiacuteegravearing (NtildeEcircIcirc) ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc n ndash icircaacuteuacutearingigrave acircucircaacuteicircethecircegrave

Iacuteagrave ethegraventilde 2 iumlethegraveacircaringaumlaringiacuteucirc ntildeetharingaumliacutearingecircacircagraveaumlethagraveograveegravedividearingntildeecircegravearing icircograveecirceumlicirciacutearingiacuteegraveyuml atildeicircaumlicircacircicircatildeicirc otildeicircaumlagrave ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc iumlicirc ethagraventildeiumlethicirc-ntildeograveethagraveiacutearingiacuteiacuteicirceacute yacuteigraveiumlegraveethegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute igraveicircaumlaringeumlegrave CIRA-86 aumleumlyuml ethagraveccedil-eumlegravedivideiacuteucircotilde oslashegraveethicircograveiacuteucircotilde iumlicircyumlntildeicircacirc egrave iumlethicircoumlaringiacuteograve icircotildeacircagraveograveagrave yacuteograveegraveotilde iumlicircyumlntildeicircacirc iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave (icircaacutearingntildeiumlaringdividearingiacuteiacuteicircntildeograveuuml p)

Icircograveigravearingograveegraveigrave divideograveicirc iumlethegraveacircaringaumlaringiacuteiacuteucircaring aumlagraveiacuteiacuteucircaring iumlicirc NtildeEcircIcirc ndash yacuteograveicirc NtildeEcircIcirc ntildeetharingaumliacutearingigravearingntildeyumldivideiacuteucircotilde ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveeacute igraveicircaumlaringeumlegrave atildeicircaumlicircacircicirc-atildeicirc otildeicircaumlagrave ETHaringagraveeumluumliacuteucircaring NtildeEcircIcirc acirc ogravearingdividearingiacuteegravearing ecircicirciacuteecircetharingograveiacuteicircatildeicirc atildeicircaumlagrave iumlicirc igravearingiacuteuumloslasharingeacute igravearingetharing iacuteagrave 15ndash25 acircucircoslasharing icircaumliacuteagraveecircicirc igraveucirc aacuteoacute-aumlaringigrave egraveatildeiacuteicircethegraveethicircacircagraveograveuuml yacuteograveicirc icircaacutentildeograveicircyumlogravearingeumluumlntildeograveacircicirc Iumlicirceumlagraveatildeagraveyuml aumleumlyuml ecircagraveaeligaumlicircatildeicirc oslashegraveethicircograveiacuteicircatildeicirc iumlicircyumlntildeagrave ntilde oumlaringiacuteograveethicircigrave iacuteagrave oslashegraveethicircogravearing ϕ divideograveicirc ntildeetharingaumliacutearingigravearingntildeyumldivideiacuteagraveyuml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave aumleumlyuml icircaacutearingntildeiumlaringdividearingiacuteiacuteicirceacute iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave divideagraventildeograveegrave iumlicircyumlntildeagrave acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlyumlaringograventildeyuml agraveaacutentildeicirceumlthornograveiacuteicirc ograveicircdivideiacuteicirc agrave aumlegraventildeiumlaringethntildeegraveyuml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc aumleumlyuml iacutearingicircaacutearingntildeiumlaringdividearingiacute-iacuteicirceacute divideagraventildeograveegrave ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve σ2(ϕ)[1 ndash p(ϕ)] egraveigravearingaringigrave

1 ( )

( ) ( ) 12pminus ϕ

δ ϕ = σ ϕ (1a)

ndash175 ndash135 ndash95 ndash55 ndash15 25 65 105 145 ndash90

ndash75

ndash60

ndash45

ndash30

ndash15

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

Aumlicirceumlatildeicircograveagrave atildeethagraveauml

Oslashegraveethicirc

ograveagrave atildeeth

agraveauml

eth eth oacuteeth

ETHegraventilde 1 Icircotildeacircagraveograve ccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute iumlicircacircaringethotildeiacuteicircntildeograveegrave egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave iumlethegraveccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc (2004 atilde)

1066 Ecircethoacutedividearingiacuteegraveoumlecircegraveeacute AtildeIgrave

egrave oacutentildeetharingaumliacuteyumlyuml (1agrave) iumlicirc oslashegraveethicircogravearing ntilde acircaringntildeicircigrave iumlethicirciumlicircethoumlegraveicirc-iacuteagraveeumluumliacuteucircigrave iumleumlicircugraveagraveaumlegrave iumlicircyumlntildeagrave ndash cosϕ iumlicirceumloacutedivideagravearingigrave aumleumlyuml iumlicirc-atildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave icirciumletharingaumlaringeumlaringiacuteegraveyuml ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicircaumlicircacircicircatildeicirc ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc δ = 028 K

0

2

6

8

10

12

ndash80 ndash60 ndash40 ndash20 0 20 40 60 80Oslashegraveethicircograveagrave atildeethagraveauml

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ccediliacuteagrave

dividearingiacuteegrave

yuml icircaacute

aringntildeiumlaring

dividearingiacuteiacute

icircntildeograveegrave

1 ndash NtildeEcircIcirc ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc 2 ndash icircaacutearingntildeiumlaringdividearingiacuteiacuteicircntildeograveuuml iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave

8

Ccediliacuteagravedivide

aringiacuteegraveyuml

NtildeEcirc

Icirc Ecirc

2

1

ETHegraventilde 2 Ccedilicirciacuteagraveeumluumliacuteucirceacute otildeicircauml NtildeEcircIcirc ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc egrave icircaacutearingntildeiumlaringdividearingiacuteiacuteicirc- ntildeograveegrave egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveeacute

Acirc aumlicircecirceumlagraveaumlaring [1] atildeaumlaring oacuteograveacircaringethaeligaumlagravearingograventildeyuml divideograveicirc ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicirc-aumlicircacircicircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc acircucircethicircntildeeumlicirc iacuteagrave (06 plusmn 02) Ecirc ccedilagrave iumlaringethegraveicircauml 1860ndash2000 atildeatilde iumlethegraveacircicircaumlyumlograventildeyuml ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml δ icircograve 005 Ecirc aumleumlyuml iumlicircntildeeumlaringaumliacuteegraveotilde eumlaringograve aumlicirc sim 01 Ecirc aumleumlyuml ntildearingetharingaumlegraveiacuteucirc XIX acirc (ntildeograveeth 56) Iumlethegrave yacuteograveicircigrave acirc ecircagravedividearingntildeograveacircaring egraventildeograveicircdivideiacuteegraveecircicircacirc iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave oacuteecircagraveccedilucircacircagravethornograventildeyuml ntildeeumloacutedivideagraveeacuteiacuteucircaring iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave iumlethegraveaacuteicircethicircacirc iacutearingicirciumletharingaumlaringeumlaringiacuteiacuteicircntildeograveegrave ntildeacircyumlccedilagraveiacute-iacuteucircaring ntilde ntildeoacuteaacuteuacutearingecircograveegraveacirciacuteucircigraveegrave iumlicirciumlethagraveacircecircagraveigraveegrave iacuteagrave iumlicircacircaringethotildeiacuteicircntildeograve-iacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute icircecircaringagraveiacuteagrave iacutearingograveicircdivideiacuteicircntildeograveuuml ecircicircethetharingecircograveegraveethicircacirc-ecircegrave oacutedivideegraveograveucircacircagravethornugravearingeacute ocircagraveecircograveicirceth oacuteethaacuteagraveiacuteegraveccedilagraveoumlegraveegrave iacuteagrave ntildeoacuteoslasharing

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Icircoumlaringiacuteegraveacircagraveyuml iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveuuml acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteegraveyuml aringaeligaringatildeicircaumliacuteicircatildeicirc ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml EgraveAtildeOgrave iumlicircegraveigravearingiacuteicircacircagraveiacuteiacuteucircaring yacuteecircntildeiumlaringethograveucirc iumlicircaumlntildeograveagraveacirc-eumlyumleumlegrave acirc divideegraventildeeumlegraveogravearingeumluuml ocircicircethigraveoacuteeumlucirc (1) yacuteigraveiumlegraveethegravedividearingntildeecircicircaring NtildeEcircIcirc iumlicirc acircntildearingigrave oacuteccedileumlagraveigrave etharingatildeoacuteeumlyumlethiacuteicirceacute ntildearingograveecircegrave atildeaumlaring egraveigravearingthornograventildeyuml aumlagraveiacute-iacuteucircaring ccedilagrave yacuteograveicircograve atildeicircauml egrave iumlicirceumloacutedivideegraveeumlegrave acircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteicirceacute otildeicircauml iumlicirc-atildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteegraveyuml aringaeligaringatildeicircaumliacuteucircotilde ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveeacute EgraveAtildeOgrave (ecircethegraveacircagraveyuml 1 iacuteagrave ethegraventilde 3) Icircdividearingacircegraveaumliacuteicirc divideograveicirc ograveagraveecircicirceacute iumlicircaumlotildeicircauml iumlicirceumliacuteicircntildeograveuumlthorn egraveatildeiacuteicircethegraveethoacutearingograve ograveicirc icircaacutentildeograveicircyumlogravearingeumluumlntildeograveacircicirc divideograveicirc icircograventildedividearing-ograveucirc acirc ethagraveccedileumlegravedivideiacuteucircotilde oacuteccedileumlagraveotilde etharingatildeoacuteeumlyumlethiacuteicirceacute ntildearingograveecircegrave icircntildeacircaringugraveagravethornograve

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05

1015202530 3540

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 atilde

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2

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ogravearingethigraveicircaumlegraveiacuteagraveigraveegravedividearingntildeecircegrave iacutearingethagraveacirciacuteicircacircaringntildeiacuteicirceacute ntildeegraventilde-ogravearingigraveucirc icircaacuteuacutearingigraveicircigrave 5 igraveeumliacute ecircigrave3 ntilde iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveuumlthorn 005 K ntilde iumlicircigraveicircugraveuumlthorn 10 ograveucircntilde aumlagraveogravedivideegraveecircicircacirc iacutearingacircicircccediligraveicircaeligiacuteicirc iacutearingccedilagraveacircegraventildeegrave-igraveicirc icircograve ecircagravedividearingntildeograveacircagrave aumlagraveogravedivideegraveecircicircacirc etharingaeligegraveigraveagrave egraveotilde icirciumlethicircntildeagrave egrave ethagraventildeiumlicirceumlicircaeligaringiacuteegraveyuml acirciacuteoacuteograveethegrave ntildeegraventildeogravearingigraveucirc (Ntildeograveethicircatildeicirc atildeicircacircicircethyuml ecirc 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Igraveucirc ethagraventildentildeigraveicircograveethegraveigrave ograveicirceumluumlecircicirc aumlacircaring egraveccedil oacuteiumlicircigraveyumliacuteoacuteograveucircotilde acircucircoslasharing iumlethegravedivideegraveiacute iacutearing iumlicircograveicircigraveoacute divideograveicirc egraveotilde acircecirceumlagraveauml acircicirc ocirceumloacuteecircograveoacuteagrave-oumlegraveegrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc iacuteagraveegraveaacuteicirceumlaringaring ntildeoacuteugravearingntildeograveacircaringiacute agrave iumlicircograveicircigraveoacute divideograveicirc yacuteograveicircograve acircecirceumlagraveauml eumlaringatildeecircicirc iumlicircaumlaumlagravearingograventildeyuml yacuteeumlaringigravearingiacute-ograveagraveethiacuteicirceacute icircoumlaringiacuteecircaring ETHaringdivideuuml egraveaumlaringograve icirc ograveethicirciumlegravedividearingntildeecircegraveotilde oumlegraveecirceumlicirciacuteagraveotilde (OgraveOuml) egrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicircigrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc

ETHagraveccedilacircegraveacircagraveyumlntildeuuml acirc ograveethicirciumlegravedividearingntildeecircegraveotilde agraveecircacircagraveograveicircethegraveyumlotilde Igraveegraveethicircacircicirc-atildeicirc icircecircaringagraveiacuteagrave OgraveOuml iumlethicircegraveccedilacircicircaumlyumlograve egraveiacuteogravearingiacutentildeegraveacirciacuteicircaring iumlaringetharingigravearingoslashegrave-acircagraveiacuteegravearing icircecircaringagraveiacuteegravedividearingntildeecircegraveotilde acircicircauml iacuteagrave atildeeumloacuteaacuteegraveiacuteagraveotilde aumlicirc 200ndash400 igrave egrave iumlicircntildeeumlaring egraveotilde iumlethicircotildeicircaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml iacuteagraveaumlicirceumlatildeicirc icircntildeograveagravearingograventildeyuml laquontildeeumlaringaumlraquo acirc acircegraveaumlaring icircecircaringagraveiacuteegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute icircaacuteeumlagraventildeograveegrave ntilde iumlicirciacuteegraveaeligaringiacuteiacuteicirceacute iacuteagrave iacutearing-ntildeecircicirceumluumlecircicirc atildeethagraveaumloacutentildeicircacirc ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethicirceacute Aringntildeogravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteicirc divideograveicirc iacuteagraveeumlegravedivideegravearing ograveagraveecircegraveotilde icircaacuteeumlagraventildeogravearingeacute iumlethegraveacircicircaumlegraveograve ecirc ntildeograveicircecircoacute ogravearingiumleumlagrave egraveccedil agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc acirc icircecircaringagraveiacute Yacuteograveicirc iumlicircaumlograveacircaringethaeligaumlagravearingograve ethegraventilde 6 iacuteagrave ecircicircograveicircethicircigrave otildeicircethicircoslashicirc acircegraveaumliacuteagrave icircograveethegraveoumlagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteagraveyuml ecircicircethetharingeumlyumloumlegraveyuml divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml egrave ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml egraveiacuteaumlaringecircntildeagrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagrave-ograveoacuteethucirc (EgraveAtildeOgrave ndash icircograveecirceumlicirciacutearingiacuteegravearing ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicircaumlicircacircicircatildeicirc ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml

icircograve ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicirc ccedilagrave iumlaringethegraveicircauml 1960ndash2000 atildeatilde acircucircethagraveaeligaringiacuteiacuteicircaring acirc ntildeicircograveucircotilde aumlicirceumlyumlotilde atildeethagraveaumloacutentildeagrave)

timesegraventildeeumlaringiacuteiacuteicircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing ecircicircyacuteocircocircegraveoumlegravearingiacuteograveagrave ecircicircethetharingeumlyumloumlegraveegrave ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve ndash 50 iacuteicirc iacuteagraveaumlicirc egraveigravearingograveuuml acirc acircegraveaumloacute divideograveicirc acirceumlegraveyuml-iacuteegravearing OgraveOuml iacuteagrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute ntildeacircyumlccedilagraveiacuteicirc iacutearing ograveicirceumluumlecircicirc ntilde egraveotilde ecircicirceumlegravedividearingntildeograveacircicircigrave iacuteicirc egrave ntilde egraveiacuteaumlegraveacircegraveaumloacuteagraveeumluumliacuteucircigraveegrave ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave iumlagraveethagraveigravearingograveethicircacirc OgraveOuml

Ecirc ntildeicircaeligagraveeumlaringiacuteegravethorn iacuteagraveaumlaringaeligiacuteucircaring aumlagraveiacuteiacuteucircaring icirc divideegraventildeeumlaring egrave iumlagrave-ethagraveigravearingograveethagraveotilde OgraveOuml iumlicircyumlacircegraveeumlegraventildeuuml ograveicirceumluumlecircicirc iumlicircntildeeumlaring acirciacutearingaumletharingiacuteegraveyuml acirc icirciumlaringethagraveograveegraveacirciacuteoacutethorn iumlethagraveecircograveegraveecircoacute ecircicircntildeigraveegravedividearingntildeecircegraveotilde ntildeetharingaumlntildeograveacirc iacuteagrave-aacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml ogravearing iacuteagravedivideegraveiacuteagraveyuml ntilde 70-otilde atildeatilde XX acirc Aumleumlyuml aacuteicirceumlaringaring ethagraveiacuteiacutearingatildeicirc iumlaringethegraveicircaumlagrave otildeagraveethagraveecircogravearingethiacuteucirc iumlethicirciumloacutentildeecircegrave ccediliacuteagravedivideegraveogravearingeumluuml-iacuteicircatildeicirc divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml Icircoumlaringiacuteegraveigrave yacuteiacutearingethatildearingograveegravedividearingntildeecircegraveeacute acircecirceumlagraveauml acircagrave-ethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicircaumlicircacircicircatildeicirc divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml acirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute iumlicirc aumlagraveiacuteiacuteucircigrave ntildeagraveeacuteograveagrave AtildeIgraveOuml ETHicircntildeatildeegraveaumlethicircigravearingograveagrave [5] Iumlicirceumlagraveatildeagraveyuml ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn aumleumlegraveiacuteoacute ograveethagravearingecircograveicircethegraveegrave OgraveOuml ethagraveacirciacuteicirceacute 3 ograveucircntilde ecircigrave ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn oslashegraveethegraveiacuteoacute ndash 500 ecircigrave ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn atildeeumloacute-aacuteegraveiacuteoacute iumlaringetharingigravearingoslashegraveacircagraveiacuteegraveyuml acircicircaumlucirc ndash 300 igrave agrave ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn ogravearingigrave-iumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute icircotildeeumlagraveaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml ndash 2 Ecirc iumlicirceumloacutedivideegraveigrave divideograveicirc aumleumlyuml ecircicircigrave-iumlaringiacutentildeagraveoumlegraveegrave icircotildeeumlagraveaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml acircicircaumlucirc icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc ntildeetharingauml-iacuteegraveigrave OgraveOuml egraveccedil agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc aacuteoacuteaumlaringograve egraveccediluacuteyumlograveicirc sim 37 1021 Aumlaelig timesegraventildeeumlicirc OgraveOuml acircagraveethuumlegraveethoacutearingograventildeyuml atildeicircauml icircograve atildeicircaumlagrave (ccedilagrave iumlicircntildeeumlaringauml-iacuteegravearing 30 eumlaringograve XX acirc icirciacuteicirc ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumleumlicirc icircograve 61 aumlicirc 103) Yacuteigrave-iumlegraveethegravedividearingntildeecircicircaring ntildeetharingaumliacutearingaring ecircicirceumlegravedividearingntildeograveacircicirc OgraveOuml acirc atildeicircauml ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve 827 yacuteigraveiumlegraveethegravedividearingntildeecircicircaring NtildeEcircIcirc ndash 88 divideograveicirc otildeicircethicircoslashicirc ntildeicircatildeeumlagrave-ntildeoacutearingograventildeyuml ntilde ocircegraveccedilegravedividearingntildeecircegrave icircntildeigraveucircntildeeumlaringiacuteiacuteicirceacute atildeegraveiumlicircogravearingccedilicirceacute icirc iumloacuteagraventilde-ntildeicirciacuteicircacircntildeecircicirceacute iumlethegraveethicircaumlaring iumlicircograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml ( 827 91= ) Yacuteograveagrave atildeegraveiumlicircogravearingccedilagrave oacutentildeiumlaringoslashiacuteicirc acircucircaumlaringethaeligegraveacircagravearingograve egrave ntildeograveagraveiacuteaumlagraveethograveiacuteicircaring ogravearingntilde-ograveegraveethicircacircagraveiacuteegravearing [2] ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing ntildeograveagraveograveegraventildeograveegraveecircegrave 2

2χ ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve 22 iumlethegrave iumlicircethicircatildearing icircograveacircaringethaeligaringiacuteegraveyuml atildeegraveiumlicircogravearingccedilucirc 599 Egraveccedil acircucirc-oslasharingegraveccedileumlicircaeligaringiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc aringntildeogravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteucircaring (ogravearing iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing NtildeEcircIcirc ndash σ) acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave yacuteiacutearingethatildeegraveegrave oacuteotildeicircaumlyumlugravearingeacute egraveccedil agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc iacuteagrave ecircicircigraveiumlaringiacutentildeagraveoumlegravethorn iumlicircogravearingethuuml icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteucircotilde OgraveOuml ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlthornograve iumlethegraveigravearingethiacuteicirc 9 37 1021

= 33 1022 Aumlaelig Yacuteograveicirc yacuteecircacircegraveacircagraveeumlaringiacuteograveiacuteicirc 22 Acircograveigrave2 Egraveccedil ccedilagraveecircicirciacuteagrave NtildeogravearingocircagraveiacuteagravendashAacuteicirceumluumloumligraveagraveiacuteagrave ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc acircicircccediligraveoacuteugravearingiacuteegravethorn δP iumleumlicircograveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave igraveicircugraveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave iacuteagrave iumlicircacircaringethotildeiacuteicircntildeograveegrave Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave P ntildeicircicircograveacircaringograventildeograveacircoacutearingograve acircicircccediligraveoacuteugravearingiacuteegravearing yumlethecircicircntildeograveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc T

0

4 (1 )

PT T

P Aδ

δ =minus

(2)

atildeaumlaring P0 = 1368 Acircograveigrave2 ndash acirciacutearingagraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethiacuteagraveyuml iumleumlicircograveiacuteicircntildeograveuuml igraveicircugraveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave iumlicircograveicircecircagrave egraveccedileumloacutedividearingiacuteegraveyuml Ntildeicirceumliacuteoumlagrave A sim 30 ndashagraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave

Ntildeetharingaumliacutearingaring ccedilagrave atildeicircauml divideegraventildeeumlicirc OgraveOuml egrave EgraveAtildeOgrave (1971ndash2004 atildeatilde)

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Atildeicircaumlucirc iacuteagravedivideegraveiacuteagraveyuml ntilde 1970

timesegraventilde

eumlicirc Ograve

Ouml

ndash20

ndash10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Egraveiacuteaumlaring

ecircntilde atilde

eumlicircaacuteagrave

eumluumliacuteicirc

eacute ogravearing

igraveiumlaring

ethagraveograveoacute

ethucirc

1 ndash divideegraventildeeumlicirc OgraveOuml 3 ndash EgraveAtildeOgrave 2 ndash ograveetharingiacuteauml EgraveAtildeOgrave 4 ndash ograveetharingiacuteauml divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml

1

4

32

ETHegraventilde 6 Acirceumlegraveyumliacuteegravearing iumlicircograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml iacuteagrave EgraveAtildeOgrave

Atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteagraveyuml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave iumlicircogravearingiacuteoumlegraveagraveeumluumliacuteagraveyuml ograveicircdivideiacuteicircntildeograveuuml egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml ntildeograveicircotildeagraventildeograveegravedividearingntildeecircegravearing acircicircccediligraveoacuteugravearingiacuteegraveyuml 1069

Ntildeeumlaringaumlicircacircagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicirc iumloacuteagraventildentildeicirciacuteicircacircntildeecircegravearing ocirceumloacuteecircograveoacuteagraveoumlegraveegrave iumlicirc-ograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml aumlicirceumlaeligiacuteucirc acircucircccedilucircacircagraveograveuuml acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave yumlethecircicircntildeograveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing 014 Ecirc ogravearing acirc 2 ethagraveccedilagrave aacuteicirceumluumloslashegravearing dividearingigrave yacuteograveicirc aacuteucirceumlicirc egraventildeiumlicirceumluumlccedilicircacircagraveiacuteicirc acirc divideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteiacuteicircigrave yacuteecircntildeiumlaringethegraveigravearingiacuteogravearing (szligethecircicircntildeograveiacuteagraveyuml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave ntildeicircicircograve-acircaringograventildeograveacircoacutearingograve ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteetharing agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc iacuteagrave acircucircntildeicircogravearing sim 56 ecircigrave laquoiumlicircntildeetharingaumlegraveiacutearingraquo agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc) egrave aringaring acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave iumlicirc iumlicircethyumlaumlecircoacute acircaringeumlegravedivideegraveiacuteucirc aumlicirceumlaeligiacuteucirc ntildeicircicircograveacircaringograventildeograveacircicircacircagraveograveuuml acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveyumligrave iumlethegrave-ccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc Acircicirc acircntildeyumlecircicircigrave ntildeeumloacutedivideagravearing iumloacuteaacuteeumlegraveecircagrave-oumlegraveegrave icirc iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveegrave ograveetharingiacuteaumlicircacirc acircaringethograveegraveecircagraveeumluumliacuteicircatildeicirc atildeethagraveaumlegravearingiacuteograveagrave ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc acirc ograveethicirciumlicircntildeocircaringetharing agraveacircograveicircethagraveigrave iacutearingegraveccedilacircaringntildeograveiacuteucirc) Egraveccedil ntildeecircagraveccedilagraveiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc acirc divideagraventildeograveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc OgraveOuml iumletharingaumlntildeograveagraveacirc-eumlyumlthornograve ntildeicircaacuteicirceacute icircaumlegraveiacute egraveccedil igravearingotildeagraveiacuteegraveccediligraveicircacirc icircograveethegraveoumlagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicirceacute icircaacute-ethagraveograveiacuteicirceacute ntildeacircyumlccedilegrave ntildeograveagraveaacuteegraveeumlegraveccedilegraveethoacutethornugravearingeacute atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaring-ethagraveograveoacuteethoacute Acirc ntildeagraveigraveicircigrave aumlaringeumlaring OgraveOuml igraveicircatildeoacuteograve acircicircccediliacuteegraveecircagraveograveuuml eumlegraveoslashuuml iumlethegrave ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveegrave ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc agraveecircacircagraveograveicircethegraveegrave ge 300 Ecirc Oacuteacircaringeumlegravedividearingiacuteegravearing divideagraventildeograveicircograveucirc acircicircccediliacuteegraveecirciacuteicircacircaringiacuteegraveyuml ograveagraveecircegraveotilde agraveecircacircagraveograveicirc-ethegraveeacute iacutearingegraveccedilaacutearingaeligiacuteicircaring iumlethegrave ethicircntildeogravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacute-ethucirc iumlethegraveacircaringaumlaringograve ecirc ethicircntildeograveoacute divideagraventildeograveicircograveucirc iumlicircyumlacirceumlaringiacuteegraveyuml OgraveOuml divideograveicirc acirc ntildeacircicircthorn icircdividearingetharingaumluuml oacuteigravearingiacuteuumloslashegraveograve EgraveAtildeOgrave

Iumlethegraventildeograveoacuteiumlegraveigrave ogravearingiumlaringethuuml ecirc ethagraventildentildeigraveicircograveetharingiacuteegravethorn aumlethoacuteatildeicircatildeicirc acircicircccedil-igraveicircaeligiacuteicircatildeicirc igravearingotildeagraveiacuteegraveccediligraveagrave ethagraveiacuteaumlicircigraveegraveccedilagraveoumlegraveegrave EgraveAtildeOgrave Ecircagraveecirc egraveccedil-acircaringntildeograveiacuteicirc egraveccedil iumlethicircntildeogravearingeacuteoslashegraveotilde yacuteiacutearingethatildeicircaacuteagraveeumlagraveiacutentildeicircacircucircotilde igraveicircaumlaringeumlaringeacute ecirceumlegraveigraveagraveograveagrave egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute yumlethecircicircntildeograveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagrave-ograveoacuteethucirc T ntildeacircyumlccedilagraveiacuteicirc ntilde egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave iumlicirceumliacuteicircatildeicirc agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave A ntildeicircicircograveiacuteicircoslasharingiacuteegravearingigrave

4(1 )

dT TdA A

= minusminus

(3)

Icircograventildethornaumlagrave ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc iumlethegrave ntildeicircacircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteicircigrave ccediliacuteagravedividearing-iacuteegraveegrave A sim 30 egrave T sim 259 Ecirc egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc (ethagraveccediloacuteigravearingaringograventildeyuml ocircicircethigraveoacuteeumlagrave (3) icircograveiacuteicircntildeegraveograventildeyuml ecirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ethagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteetharing icircaumliacuteagraveecircicirc aumleumlyuml icircoumlaringiacuteicircecirc ethagraveccedileumlegravedivideegravearing igravearingaeligaumloacute egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluuml-iacuteucircotilde iumlethegraveccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute egrave ethagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteeth iacutearingntildeoacute-ugravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteicirc) iumlethegrave egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveegrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc iacuteagrave 1 ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacircegraveograve sim 09 Ecirc (iumlethegrave oacuteigravearingiacuteuumloslasharingiacuteegraveegrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave ethagraventilde-ogravearingograve) Ograveethagraveaumlegraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteucircigrave ntildeiumlicircntildeicircaacuteicircigrave egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc yumlacirceumlyumlaringograventildeyuml egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegravearing ntildeacircaringograveicircacircicircatildeicirc iumlicircograveicircecircagrave icircograve ccedilagraveogravearingigraveiacutearingiacute-iacuteicirceacute divideagraventildeograveegrave eumloacuteiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc aumlegraventildeecircagrave Yacuteograveegrave egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml aumlagravethornograve ntildeicirc-acircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteicircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing A = 2975 Icirciacuteegrave otildeicircethicircoslashicirc ntildeicirc-atildeeumlagraventildeoacutethornograventildeyuml ntilde egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave icircograveethagraveaeligagravearingigraveicircntildeograveegrave iumlethicircacircicircaumlegrave-igraveucircigraveegrave icircccedilicirciacuteicircigravearingograveethegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute agraveiumliumlagraveethagraveograveoacuteethicirceacute TOMS (ethegraventilde 7) ocircoacuteiacuteecircoumlegraveicirciacuteegraveethoacutethornugravearingeacute ntilde 1978 atilde (ntilde iacutearingaacuteicirceumluumloslashegraveigrave iumlaringetharingethucircacircicircigrave) iacuteagrave aacuteicircethograveagraveotilde EgraveNtildeCcedil Nimbus-7 Igravearingogravearingicirceth-3 egrave Earth Probe [6]

Ccedilicirciacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirc icircntildeetharingaumliacutearingiacuteiacuteucircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc (S65-N65)

22

28

30

34

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

Igraveicircaumlaringeumluuml (R2 = 88)

Icircecircograveyumlaacuteethuuml 1978ndash2004 atildeatilde

Egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml

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nδ = σ (1)

atildeaumlaring σ ndash ntildeetharingaumliacutearingecircacircagraveaumlethagraveograveegravedividearingntildeecircicircaring icircograveecirceumlicirciacutearingiacuteegravearing (NtildeEcircIcirc) ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc n ndash icircaacuteuacutearingigrave acircucircaacuteicircethecircegrave

Iacuteagrave ethegraventilde 2 iumlethegraveacircaringaumlaringiacuteucirc ntildeetharingaumliacutearingecircacircagraveaumlethagraveograveegravedividearingntildeecircegravearing icircograveecirceumlicirciacutearingiacuteegraveyuml atildeicircaumlicircacircicircatildeicirc otildeicircaumlagrave ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc iumlicirc ethagraventildeiumlethicirc-ntildeograveethagraveiacutearingiacuteiacuteicirceacute yacuteigraveiumlegraveethegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute igraveicircaumlaringeumlegrave CIRA-86 aumleumlyuml ethagraveccedil-eumlegravedivideiacuteucircotilde oslashegraveethicircograveiacuteucircotilde iumlicircyumlntildeicircacirc egrave iumlethicircoumlaringiacuteograve icircotildeacircagraveograveagrave yacuteograveegraveotilde iumlicircyumlntildeicircacirc iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave (icircaacutearingntildeiumlaringdividearingiacuteiacuteicircntildeograveuuml p)

Icircograveigravearingograveegraveigrave divideograveicirc iumlethegraveacircaringaumlaringiacuteiacuteucircaring aumlagraveiacuteiacuteucircaring iumlicirc NtildeEcircIcirc ndash yacuteograveicirc NtildeEcircIcirc ntildeetharingaumliacutearingigravearingntildeyumldivideiacuteucircotilde ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveeacute igraveicircaumlaringeumlegrave atildeicircaumlicircacircicirc-atildeicirc otildeicircaumlagrave ETHaringagraveeumluumliacuteucircaring NtildeEcircIcirc acirc ogravearingdividearingiacuteegravearing ecircicirciacuteecircetharingograveiacuteicircatildeicirc atildeicircaumlagrave iumlicirc igravearingiacuteuumloslasharingeacute igravearingetharing iacuteagrave 15ndash25 acircucircoslasharing icircaumliacuteagraveecircicirc igraveucirc aacuteoacute-aumlaringigrave egraveatildeiacuteicircethegraveethicircacircagraveograveuuml yacuteograveicirc icircaacutentildeograveicircyumlogravearingeumluumlntildeograveacircicirc Iumlicirceumlagraveatildeagraveyuml aumleumlyuml ecircagraveaeligaumlicircatildeicirc oslashegraveethicircograveiacuteicircatildeicirc iumlicircyumlntildeagrave ntilde oumlaringiacuteograveethicircigrave iacuteagrave oslashegraveethicircogravearing ϕ divideograveicirc ntildeetharingaumliacutearingigravearingntildeyumldivideiacuteagraveyuml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave aumleumlyuml icircaacutearingntildeiumlaringdividearingiacuteiacuteicirceacute iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave divideagraventildeograveegrave iumlicircyumlntildeagrave acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlyumlaringograventildeyuml agraveaacutentildeicirceumlthornograveiacuteicirc ograveicircdivideiacuteicirc agrave aumlegraventildeiumlaringethntildeegraveyuml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc aumleumlyuml iacutearingicircaacutearingntildeiumlaringdividearingiacute-iacuteicirceacute divideagraventildeograveegrave ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve σ2(ϕ)[1 ndash p(ϕ)] egraveigravearingaringigrave

1 ( )

( ) ( ) 12pminus ϕ

δ ϕ = σ ϕ (1a)

ndash175 ndash135 ndash95 ndash55 ndash15 25 65 105 145 ndash90

ndash75

ndash60

ndash45

ndash30

ndash15

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

Aumlicirceumlatildeicircograveagrave atildeethagraveauml

Oslashegraveethicirc

ograveagrave atildeeth

agraveauml

eth eth oacuteeth

ETHegraventilde 1 Icircotildeacircagraveograve ccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute iumlicircacircaringethotildeiacuteicircntildeograveegrave egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave iumlethegraveccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc (2004 atilde)

1066 Ecircethoacutedividearingiacuteegraveoumlecircegraveeacute AtildeIgrave

egrave oacutentildeetharingaumliacuteyumlyuml (1agrave) iumlicirc oslashegraveethicircogravearing ntilde acircaringntildeicircigrave iumlethicirciumlicircethoumlegraveicirc-iacuteagraveeumluumliacuteucircigrave iumleumlicircugraveagraveaumlegrave iumlicircyumlntildeagrave ndash cosϕ iumlicirceumloacutedivideagravearingigrave aumleumlyuml iumlicirc-atildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave icirciumletharingaumlaringeumlaringiacuteegraveyuml ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicircaumlicircacircicircatildeicirc ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc δ = 028 K

0

2

6

8

10

12

ndash80 ndash60 ndash40 ndash20 0 20 40 60 80Oslashegraveethicircograveagrave atildeethagraveauml

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ccediliacuteagrave

dividearingiacuteegrave

yuml icircaacute

aringntildeiumlaring

dividearingiacuteiacute

icircntildeograveegrave

1 ndash NtildeEcircIcirc ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc 2 ndash icircaacutearingntildeiumlaringdividearingiacuteiacuteicircntildeograveuuml iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave

8

Ccediliacuteagravedivide

aringiacuteegraveyuml

NtildeEcirc

Icirc Ecirc

2

1

ETHegraventilde 2 Ccedilicirciacuteagraveeumluumliacuteucirceacute otildeicircauml NtildeEcircIcirc ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc egrave icircaacutearingntildeiumlaringdividearingiacuteiacuteicirc- ntildeograveegrave egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveeacute

Acirc aumlicircecirceumlagraveaumlaring [1] atildeaumlaring oacuteograveacircaringethaeligaumlagravearingograventildeyuml divideograveicirc ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicirc-aumlicircacircicircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc acircucircethicircntildeeumlicirc iacuteagrave (06 plusmn 02) Ecirc ccedilagrave iumlaringethegraveicircauml 1860ndash2000 atildeatilde iumlethegraveacircicircaumlyumlograventildeyuml ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml δ icircograve 005 Ecirc aumleumlyuml iumlicircntildeeumlaringaumliacuteegraveotilde eumlaringograve aumlicirc sim 01 Ecirc aumleumlyuml ntildearingetharingaumlegraveiacuteucirc XIX acirc (ntildeograveeth 56) Iumlethegrave yacuteograveicircigrave acirc ecircagravedividearingntildeograveacircaring egraventildeograveicircdivideiacuteegraveecircicircacirc iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave oacuteecircagraveccedilucircacircagravethornograventildeyuml ntildeeumloacutedivideagraveeacuteiacuteucircaring iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave iumlethegraveaacuteicircethicircacirc iacutearingicirciumletharingaumlaringeumlaringiacuteiacuteicircntildeograveegrave ntildeacircyumlccedilagraveiacute-iacuteucircaring ntilde ntildeoacuteaacuteuacutearingecircograveegraveacirciacuteucircigraveegrave iumlicirciumlethagraveacircecircagraveigraveegrave iacuteagrave iumlicircacircaringethotildeiacuteicircntildeograve-iacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute icircecircaringagraveiacuteagrave iacutearingograveicircdivideiacuteicircntildeograveuuml ecircicircethetharingecircograveegraveethicircacirc-ecircegrave oacutedivideegraveograveucircacircagravethornugravearingeacute ocircagraveecircograveicirceth oacuteethaacuteagraveiacuteegraveccedilagraveoumlegraveegrave iacuteagrave ntildeoacuteoslasharing

Acircegraveaumliacuteicirc divideograveicirc acircecirceumlagraveauml ograveicirceumluumlecircicirc acircograveicircethicircatildeicirc egraveccedil iacuteagraveccedilacircagraveiacuteiacuteucircotilde egraventildeograveicircdivideiacuteegraveecircicircacirc iacutearingntildeecircicirceumluumlecircicirc (acirc 55 ethagraveccedilagrave) ccedilagraveiacuteegraveaeligaringiacute iumlicirc icircograve-iacuteicircoslasharingiacuteegravethorn ecirc aumlicircacircicirceumluumliacuteicirc igraveyumlatildeecircegraveigrave icircoumlaringiacuteecircagraveigrave igraveegraveiacuteegraveigraveagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave Egraveccedil yacuteograveegraveotilde icircoumlaringiacuteicircecirc ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc 95-eacute aumlicircacircaringethegraveogravearingeumluumliacuteucirceacute egraveiacuteogravearingethacircagraveeuml acirc ecircicirciacuteoumlaring agraveiacuteagraveeumlegraveccedilegraveethoacutearingigraveicircatildeicirc iumlaringethegraveicircaumlagrave ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacircegraveograve 07 Ecirc egrave aumlagraveaeligaring aringntildeeumlegrave (acircicirciumletharingecircegrave ocircagraveecirc-ograveoacute ntildeoacuteugravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc ethagraventildeoslashegraveetharingiacuteegraveyuml igraveegraveethicircacircicirceacute ntildearingograveegrave ntildeograveagraveiacute-oumlegraveeacute ccedilagrave 140 eumlaringograve) iumlicirceumlicircaeligegraveograveuuml aringatildeicirc ograveagraveecircegraveigrave aeligaring egrave acirc iacuteagravedivideagraveeumlaring yacuteograveicircatildeicirc iumlaringethegraveicircaumlagrave ograveicirc eumlthornaacuteicirceacute atildeethagraveocircegraveecirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaring-ethagraveograveoacuteethucirc acirc iumlicirceumlicircntildearing iumlicirceumloacuteoslashegraveethegraveiacuteicirceacute 07 Ecirc acircicircecircethoacuteatilde icircntildeegrave agraveaacutentildeoumlegraventildentilde ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve egraveiacuteogravearingethiumletharingograveegraveethicircacircagraveograveuuml ecircagraveecirc ntildeacircegraveaumlaringogravearingeumluumlntildeograve-acircicirc icircograventildeoacuteograventildeograveacircegraveyuml aumlicirceumlatildeicircacircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteucircotilde egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveeacute Acirc ograveagraveecircegraveotilde oacutentildeeumlicircacircegraveyumlotilde aringntildeograveuuml icircntildeiacuteicircacircagraveiacuteegraveyuml iumletharingaumliumlicirceumlagraveatildeagraveograveuuml divideograveicirc iumlaringeth-acircicircaring egraveccedil ograveetharingotilde icircntildeiacuteicircacirciacuteucircotilde iumlicirceumlicircaeligaringiacuteegraveeacute iacuteagrave ecircicircograveicircethucircotilde aacuteagraveccedilegraveethoacutearingograventildeyuml Ecircegraveicircograventildeecircegraveeacute iumlethicircograveicircecircicirceuml iacutearing acircucircatildeeumlyumlaumlegraveograve ntildeicircacircaringethoslasharingiacuteiacuteicirc aacutearingntildentildeiumlicircethiacuteucircigrave ograveagraveecirc ecircagraveecirc iacutearing acirciumlicirceumliacutearing yumlntildeiacuteicirc ecircagraveecirc aringatildeicirc icircaacuteicircntildeiacuteicircacircagraveograveuuml iumlicirc aumlagraveiacuteiacuteucircigrave ntildeoacuteugravearingntildeograveacircoacutethornugravearingeacute ntildearingograveegrave iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveeacute ccedilagrave iumlethegraveccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethicirceacute Ogravearingiumlaringethuuml icircaacutentildeoacuteaumlegraveigrave acircicirciumlethicircntilde ecircagraveecircegraveigrave icircaacuteethagraveccedilicircigrave oacuteacircagrave-aeligagravearingigraveucircigrave yacuteecircntildeiumlaringethograveagraveigrave AcircIgraveIcirc oacuteaumlagraveeumlicircntildeuuml iumlicirceumloacutedivideegraveograveuuml iacutearingicirciuml-ethagraveacircaumlagraveiacuteiacuteicirc icirciumlograveegraveigraveegraventildeograveegravedivideiacuteoacutethorn icircoumlaringiacuteecircoacute iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave acircucirc-divideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteegraveyuml egraveiacuteaumlaringecircntildeagrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc (EgraveAtildeOgrave) Icircograveacircaringograve iacuteagrave iacutearingatildeicirc aumlagravearingograve ethegraventilde 3

Icircoumlaringiacuteegraveacircagraveyuml iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveuuml acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteegraveyuml aringaeligaringatildeicircaumliacuteicircatildeicirc ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml EgraveAtildeOgrave iumlicircegraveigravearingiacuteicircacircagraveiacuteiacuteucircaring yacuteecircntildeiumlaringethograveucirc iumlicircaumlntildeograveagraveacirc-eumlyumleumlegrave acirc divideegraventildeeumlegraveogravearingeumluuml ocircicircethigraveoacuteeumlucirc (1) yacuteigraveiumlegraveethegravedividearingntildeecircicircaring NtildeEcircIcirc iumlicirc acircntildearingigrave oacuteccedileumlagraveigrave etharingatildeoacuteeumlyumlethiacuteicirceacute ntildearingograveecircegrave atildeaumlaring egraveigravearingthornograventildeyuml aumlagraveiacute-iacuteucircaring ccedilagrave yacuteograveicircograve atildeicircauml egrave iumlicirceumloacutedivideegraveeumlegrave acircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteicirceacute otildeicircauml iumlicirc-atildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteegraveyuml aringaeligaringatildeicircaumliacuteucircotilde ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveeacute EgraveAtildeOgrave (ecircethegraveacircagraveyuml 1 iacuteagrave ethegraventilde 3) Icircdividearingacircegraveaumliacuteicirc divideograveicirc ograveagraveecircicirceacute iumlicircaumlotildeicircauml iumlicirceumliacuteicircntildeograveuumlthorn egraveatildeiacuteicircethegraveethoacutearingograve ograveicirc icircaacutentildeograveicircyumlogravearingeumluumlntildeograveacircicirc divideograveicirc icircograventildedividearing-ograveucirc acirc ethagraveccedileumlegravedivideiacuteucircotilde oacuteccedileumlagraveotilde etharingatildeoacuteeumlyumlethiacuteicirceacute ntildearingograveecircegrave icircntildeacircaringugraveagravethornograve

ethagraveccedileumlegravedivideiacuteucircaring iumlicirc iumleumlicircugraveagraveaumlegrave oacutedivideagraventildeograveecircegrave ccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute iumlicircacircaringethotildeiacuteicircntildeograveegrave egrave iumlicircyacuteograveicircigraveoacute aumlicirceumlaeligiacuteucirc oacutedivideegraveograveucircacircagraveograveuumlntildeyuml ntilde ethagraveccedileumlegravedivideiacuteucircigraveegrave acircaring-ntildeagraveigraveegrave iumlethegrave acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteegraveegrave iacutearing ograveicirceumluumlecircicirc ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicirc ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml iacuteicirc egrave NtildeEcircIcirc

05

1015202530 3540

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 atilde

1 ndash ethagraventildedividearingograve iumlicirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute aumlegraventildeiumlaringethntildeegraveegrave 2 ndash ethagraventildedividearingograve iumlicirc ccedilicirciacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute aumlegraventildeiumlaringethntildeegraveegrave

2

1

Ntildeograveagraveiacuteaumlagraveethograveiacuteagraveyuml iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveuuml ntildeEcirc

ETHegraventilde 3 ETHagraveccedileumlegravedivideiacuteucircaring icircoumlaringiacuteecircegrave iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteegraveyuml EgraveAtildeOgrave

Ecircicircethetharingecircograveiacuteagraveyuml icircoumlaringiacuteecircagrave iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave acircucircaacuteicircethicircdivideiacuteicircatildeicirc

icircntildeetharingaumliacutearingiacuteegraveyuml iumletharingaumliumlicirceumlagraveatildeagravearingograve iumlicircoslashegraveethicircograveiacuteicircaring acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteegravearing ntildeicircicircograveacircaringograventildeograveacircoacutethornugravearingeacute iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave egrave iumlicircntildeeumlaringaumloacutethornugravearingaring icircntilde-etharingaumliacutearingiacuteegravearing ntilde acircaringntildeagraveigraveegrave iumlethicirciumlicircethoumlegraveicirciacuteagraveeumluumliacuteucircigraveegrave iumleumlicircugraveagraveaumlyumligrave oslashegraveethicircograveiacuteucircotilde ccedilicirciacute ogravearing ecircicircntildeegraveiacuteoacutentildeoacute oslashegraveethicircograveucirc Yacuteograveicircograve iumlicircaumlotildeicircauml aumlagravearingograve acircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteicirceacute otildeicircauml iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteegraveyuml aringaeligaring-atildeicircaumliacuteucircotilde ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveeacute EgraveAtildeOgrave (ecircethegraveacircagraveyuml 2 iacuteagrave ethegraventilde 3) Eumlaringatildeecircicirc oacuteaacutearingaumlegraveograveuumlntildeyuml divideograveicirc icircoumlaringiacuteecircegrave iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteegraveyuml EgraveAtildeOgrave icircntildeiacuteicircacircagraveiacuteiacuteucircaring iacuteagrave igraveicircaumlaringeumlegrave CIRA-86 (028 K) egrave iacuteagrave ecircicircethetharingecircograveiacuteicircigrave acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteegraveegrave yacuteigraveiumlegraveethegravedividearingntildeecircicircatildeicirc NtildeEcircIcirc (026 K) aacuteeumlegraveccedilecircegrave aumlethoacuteatilde ecirc aumlethoacuteatildeoacute egrave icircdividearingiacuteuuml aumlagraveeumlaringecircegrave icircograve ocircagraveiacuteograveagraventildeograveegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute ntilde ocircegraveccedilegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute ograveicircdivideecircegrave ccediletharingiacuteegraveyuml icircoumlaringiacuteecircegrave yacuteecircntildeiumlaringethograveicircacirc AcircIgraveIcirc (005 K) Iumlicircntildeeumlaringaumliacuteyumlyuml icircoumlaringiacuteecircagrave iacuteagraveccedilacircagrave-iacuteagrave ocircagraveiacuteograveagraventildeograveegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute ograveagraveecirc ecircagraveecirc aumleumlyuml eumlthornaacuteicircatildeicirc ocircegraveccedilegraveecircagrave icircdividearing-acircegraveaumliacuteicirc aacutearingccedil acircntildeyumlecircegraveotilde ethagraventildedividearingograveicircacirc divideograveicirc acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlegraveograveuuml ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute ogravearingethigraveicircaumlegraveiacuteagraveigraveegravedividearingntildeecircegrave iacutearingethagraveacirciacuteicircacircaringntildeiacuteicirceacute ntildeegraventilde-ogravearingigraveucirc icircaacuteuacutearingigraveicircigrave 5 igraveeumliacute ecircigrave3 ntilde iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveuumlthorn 005 K ntilde iumlicircigraveicircugraveuumlthorn 10 ograveucircntilde aumlagraveogravedivideegraveecircicircacirc iacutearingacircicircccediligraveicircaeligiacuteicirc iacutearingccedilagraveacircegraventildeegrave-igraveicirc icircograve ecircagravedividearingntildeograveacircagrave aumlagraveogravedivideegraveecircicircacirc etharingaeligegraveigraveagrave egraveotilde icirciumlethicircntildeagrave egrave ethagraventildeiumlicirceumlicircaeligaringiacuteegraveyuml acirciacuteoacuteograveethegrave ntildeegraventildeogravearingigraveucirc (Ntildeograveethicircatildeicirc atildeicircacircicircethyuml ecirc ogravearingethigraveicircaumlegraveiacuteagraveigraveegravedividearingntildeecircegrave iacutearingethagraveacirciacuteicircacircaringntildeiacuteicirceacute ntildeegraventildeogravearingigravearing iumlicirciacuteyuml-ograveegravearing ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc acircicircicircaacuteugravearing iacutearingiumlethegraveigravearingiacuteegraveigraveicirc iacuteicirc ograveagraveecirc ecircagraveecirc iumlicircntildeograveicircyumliacuteiacuteagraveyuml acircetharingigravearingiacuteegrave iumlethegraveigravearingiacuteyumlaringigraveucircotilde iacuteagrave ntildearingograveegrave aumlagraveogravedivideegraveecircicircacirc ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc atildeicircethagraveccedilaumlicirc igravearingiacuteuumloslasharing otildeagraveethagraveecircogravearingethiacuteucircotilde acircetharingigravearingiacute iacutearingethagraveacirciacuteicircacircaringntildeiacuteucircotilde iumlethicircoumlaringntildentildeicircacirc iumlicircauml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethicirceacute igraveicircaeligiacuteicirc iumlicirciacuteegraveigraveagraveograveuuml iumlicircecircagraveccedilagraveiacuteegraveyuml yacuteograveegraveotilde aumlagraveogravedivideegraveecircicircacirc ndash ogravearingethigraveicircigravearingograveethicircacirc)

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yacuteecircntildeiumlaringethegraveigravearingiacuteograveagrave iumlethegraveiacuteoumlegraveiumlegraveagraveeumluumliacuteicirc iacutearing icircograveeumlegravedivideagravethornograventildeyuml icircograve iumlethegraveacircaringaumlaringiacuteiacuteucircotilde acircucircoslasharing Icircaumliacuteagraveecircicirc agraveaumlaringecirc-acircagraveograveiacuteicircntildeograveuuml yacuteecircntildeiumlaringethegraveigravearingiacuteograveagrave iumlethegrave yacuteograveicircigrave ntildeograveagraveiacuteicircacircegraveograventildeyuml ntildeicircigraveiacuteegrave-ogravearingeumluumliacuteicirceacute ograveagraveecirc ecircagraveecirc etharingccediloacuteeumluumlograveagraveograveucirc aumlacircoacuteotilde iumlicircntildeeumlaringaumlicircacircagraveogravearingeumluuml-iacuteucircotilde aacuteethicircntildeagraveiacuteegraveeacute igraveicirciacutearingograveucirc acirc icircograveeumlegravedivideegravearing icircograve aumlacircoacuteotilde iumlicircntildeeumlaringaumlicircacircagrave-ogravearingeumluumliacuteucircotilde ntildeetharingaumliacutearingigravearingntildeyumldivideiacuteucircotilde ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveeacute agraveiacuteicircigraveagraveeumlegraveeacute atildeeumlicirc-aacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc ccedilagraveacircaringaumlicircigraveicirc iacutearingccedilagraveacircegraventildeegraveigraveucirc Acircagraveaeligiacuteicirc iumlicircaumldividearingethecirciacuteoacuteograveuuml divideograveicirc aumlagraveaeligaring aringntildeeumlegrave ntildedivideegraveograveagraveograveuuml aumlagraveiacuteiacuteucircaring icircaacute yacuteacircicirceumlthornoumlegraveegrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc agraveaacutentildeicirceumlthornograveiacuteicirc aumlicircntilde-ograveicircacircaringethiacuteucircigraveegrave ogravearing iumlicirceumliacuteicircntildeograveuumlthorn egraveatildeiacuteicircethegraveethicircacircagraveograveuuml icircoumlaringiacuteecircegrave iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave iumlethegraveacircaringaumlaringiacuteiacuteucircaring acirc iumletharingaumlucircaumloacuteugravearingigrave ethagraveccedilaumlaringeumlaring ograveicirc ntildeeumloacutedivideagraveeacuteiacuteucircaring igravearingaeligatildeicircaumlicircacircucircaring acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave ecircicircograveicircethucircaring iacutearing aacuteicirceumluumloslasharing dividearingigrave aumlaringecirceumlagraveethegraveethicircacircagraveiacuteiacuteagraveyuml acirc [1] iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveuuml egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveeacute igraveicircatildeoacuteograve iumlethegraveacircaringntildeograveegrave ecirc iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlagravearingigraveicircigraveoacute ntildeograveicircotildeagraventilde-ograveegravedividearingntildeecircicircigraveoacute ethicircntildeograveoacute atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc ntilde acircaringethicircyumlograve-iacuteicircntildeograveuumlthorn ntildeethagraveacirciacuteegraveigraveicirceacute iumlicirc acircaringeumlegravedivideegraveiacutearing ntilde aringaumlegraveiacuteegraveoumlaringeacute (Iacuteagrave-iumlicircigraveiacuteegraveigrave divideograveicirc iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveuuml egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeeumlicirc-aacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc aumlaringecirceumlagraveethegraveethicircacircagraveiacuteagrave acirc [1] iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirc-iacutearing igravearingaeligaumloacute 005 egrave 01 Ecirc agrave acirc divideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteiacuteicircigrave yacuteecircntildeiumlaringethegraveigravearingiacuteogravearing ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml iacutearingicircaacuteiacuteagraveethoacuteaeligegraveigraveucircotilde ntildeeumloacutedivideagraveeacuteiacuteucircotilde acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveeacute acircucirc-aacuteethagraveiacuteucirc iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing 0067 Ecirc)

4 Ntildeoacuteugravearingntildeograveacircoacutethornograve eumlegrave iumlethegravedivideegraveiacuteucirc aumleumlyuml ocirceumloacuteecircograveoacuteagraveoumlegraveeacute atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc

Igraveucirc ethagraventildentildeigraveicircograveethegraveigrave ograveicirceumluumlecircicirc aumlacircaring egraveccedil oacuteiumlicircigraveyumliacuteoacuteograveucircotilde acircucircoslasharing iumlethegravedivideegraveiacute iacutearing iumlicircograveicircigraveoacute divideograveicirc egraveotilde acircecirceumlagraveauml acircicirc ocirceumloacuteecircograveoacuteagrave-oumlegraveegrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc iacuteagraveegraveaacuteicirceumlaringaring ntildeoacuteugravearingntildeograveacircaringiacute agrave iumlicircograveicircigraveoacute divideograveicirc yacuteograveicircograve acircecirceumlagraveauml eumlaringatildeecircicirc iumlicircaumlaumlagravearingograventildeyuml yacuteeumlaringigravearingiacute-ograveagraveethiacuteicirceacute icircoumlaringiacuteecircaring ETHaringdivideuuml egraveaumlaringograve icirc ograveethicirciumlegravedividearingntildeecircegraveotilde oumlegraveecirceumlicirciacuteagraveotilde (OgraveOuml) egrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicircigrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc

ETHagraveccedilacircegraveacircagraveyumlntildeuuml acirc ograveethicirciumlegravedividearingntildeecircegraveotilde agraveecircacircagraveograveicircethegraveyumlotilde Igraveegraveethicircacircicirc-atildeicirc icircecircaringagraveiacuteagrave OgraveOuml iumlethicircegraveccedilacircicircaumlyumlograve egraveiacuteogravearingiacutentildeegraveacirciacuteicircaring iumlaringetharingigravearingoslashegrave-acircagraveiacuteegravearing icircecircaringagraveiacuteegravedividearingntildeecircegraveotilde acircicircauml iacuteagrave atildeeumloacuteaacuteegraveiacuteagraveotilde aumlicirc 200ndash400 igrave egrave iumlicircntildeeumlaring egraveotilde iumlethicircotildeicircaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml iacuteagraveaumlicirceumlatildeicirc icircntildeograveagravearingograventildeyuml laquontildeeumlaringaumlraquo acirc acircegraveaumlaring icircecircaringagraveiacuteegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute icircaacuteeumlagraventildeograveegrave ntilde iumlicirciacuteegraveaeligaringiacuteiacuteicirceacute iacuteagrave iacutearing-ntildeecircicirceumluumlecircicirc atildeethagraveaumloacutentildeicircacirc ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethicirceacute Aringntildeogravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteicirc divideograveicirc iacuteagraveeumlegravedivideegravearing ograveagraveecircegraveotilde icircaacuteeumlagraventildeogravearingeacute iumlethegraveacircicircaumlegraveograve ecirc ntildeograveicircecircoacute ogravearingiumleumlagrave egraveccedil agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc acirc icircecircaringagraveiacute Yacuteograveicirc iumlicircaumlograveacircaringethaeligaumlagravearingograve ethegraventilde 6 iacuteagrave ecircicircograveicircethicircigrave otildeicircethicircoslashicirc acircegraveaumliacuteagrave icircograveethegraveoumlagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteagraveyuml ecircicircethetharingeumlyumloumlegraveyuml divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml egrave ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml egraveiacuteaumlaringecircntildeagrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagrave-ograveoacuteethucirc (EgraveAtildeOgrave ndash icircograveecirceumlicirciacutearingiacuteegravearing ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicircaumlicircacircicircatildeicirc ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml

icircograve ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicirc ccedilagrave iumlaringethegraveicircauml 1960ndash2000 atildeatilde acircucircethagraveaeligaringiacuteiacuteicircaring acirc ntildeicircograveucircotilde aumlicirceumlyumlotilde atildeethagraveaumloacutentildeagrave)

timesegraventildeeumlaringiacuteiacuteicircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing ecircicircyacuteocircocircegraveoumlegravearingiacuteograveagrave ecircicircethetharingeumlyumloumlegraveegrave ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve ndash 50 iacuteicirc iacuteagraveaumlicirc egraveigravearingograveuuml acirc acircegraveaumloacute divideograveicirc acirceumlegraveyuml-iacuteegravearing OgraveOuml iacuteagrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute ntildeacircyumlccedilagraveiacuteicirc iacutearing ograveicirceumluumlecircicirc ntilde egraveotilde ecircicirceumlegravedividearingntildeograveacircicircigrave iacuteicirc egrave ntilde egraveiacuteaumlegraveacircegraveaumloacuteagraveeumluumliacuteucircigraveegrave ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave iumlagraveethagraveigravearingograveethicircacirc OgraveOuml

Ecirc ntildeicircaeligagraveeumlaringiacuteegravethorn iacuteagraveaumlaringaeligiacuteucircaring aumlagraveiacuteiacuteucircaring icirc divideegraventildeeumlaring egrave iumlagrave-ethagraveigravearingograveethagraveotilde OgraveOuml iumlicircyumlacircegraveeumlegraventildeuuml ograveicirceumluumlecircicirc iumlicircntildeeumlaring acirciacutearingaumletharingiacuteegraveyuml acirc icirciumlaringethagraveograveegraveacirciacuteoacutethorn iumlethagraveecircograveegraveecircoacute ecircicircntildeigraveegravedividearingntildeecircegraveotilde ntildeetharingaumlntildeograveacirc iacuteagrave-aacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml ogravearing iacuteagravedivideegraveiacuteagraveyuml ntilde 70-otilde atildeatilde XX acirc Aumleumlyuml aacuteicirceumlaringaring ethagraveiacuteiacutearingatildeicirc iumlaringethegraveicircaumlagrave otildeagraveethagraveecircogravearingethiacuteucirc iumlethicirciumloacutentildeecircegrave ccediliacuteagravedivideegraveogravearingeumluuml-iacuteicircatildeicirc divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml Icircoumlaringiacuteegraveigrave yacuteiacutearingethatildearingograveegravedividearingntildeecircegraveeacute acircecirceumlagraveauml acircagrave-ethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicircaumlicircacircicircatildeicirc divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml acirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute iumlicirc aumlagraveiacuteiacuteucircigrave ntildeagraveeacuteograveagrave AtildeIgraveOuml ETHicircntildeatildeegraveaumlethicircigravearingograveagrave [5] Iumlicirceumlagraveatildeagraveyuml ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn aumleumlegraveiacuteoacute ograveethagravearingecircograveicircethegraveegrave OgraveOuml ethagraveacirciacuteicirceacute 3 ograveucircntilde ecircigrave ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn oslashegraveethegraveiacuteoacute ndash 500 ecircigrave ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn atildeeumloacute-aacuteegraveiacuteoacute iumlaringetharingigravearingoslashegraveacircagraveiacuteegraveyuml acircicircaumlucirc ndash 300 igrave agrave ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn ogravearingigrave-iumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute icircotildeeumlagraveaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml ndash 2 Ecirc iumlicirceumloacutedivideegraveigrave divideograveicirc aumleumlyuml ecircicircigrave-iumlaringiacutentildeagraveoumlegraveegrave icircotildeeumlagraveaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml acircicircaumlucirc icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc ntildeetharingauml-iacuteegraveigrave OgraveOuml egraveccedil agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc aacuteoacuteaumlaringograve egraveccediluacuteyumlograveicirc sim 37 1021 Aumlaelig timesegraventildeeumlicirc OgraveOuml acircagraveethuumlegraveethoacutearingograventildeyuml atildeicircauml icircograve atildeicircaumlagrave (ccedilagrave iumlicircntildeeumlaringauml-iacuteegravearing 30 eumlaringograve XX acirc icirciacuteicirc ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumleumlicirc icircograve 61 aumlicirc 103) Yacuteigrave-iumlegraveethegravedividearingntildeecircicircaring ntildeetharingaumliacutearingaring ecircicirceumlegravedividearingntildeograveacircicirc OgraveOuml acirc atildeicircauml ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve 827 yacuteigraveiumlegraveethegravedividearingntildeecircicircaring NtildeEcircIcirc ndash 88 divideograveicirc otildeicircethicircoslashicirc ntildeicircatildeeumlagrave-ntildeoacutearingograventildeyuml ntilde ocircegraveccedilegravedividearingntildeecircegrave icircntildeigraveucircntildeeumlaringiacuteiacuteicirceacute atildeegraveiumlicircogravearingccedilicirceacute icirc iumloacuteagraventilde-ntildeicirciacuteicircacircntildeecircicirceacute iumlethegraveethicircaumlaring iumlicircograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml ( 827 91= ) Yacuteograveagrave atildeegraveiumlicircogravearingccedilagrave oacutentildeiumlaringoslashiacuteicirc acircucircaumlaringethaeligegraveacircagravearingograve egrave ntildeograveagraveiacuteaumlagraveethograveiacuteicircaring ogravearingntilde-ograveegraveethicircacircagraveiacuteegravearing [2] ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing ntildeograveagraveograveegraventildeograveegraveecircegrave 2

2χ ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve 22 iumlethegrave iumlicircethicircatildearing icircograveacircaringethaeligaringiacuteegraveyuml atildeegraveiumlicircogravearingccedilucirc 599 Egraveccedil acircucirc-oslasharingegraveccedileumlicircaeligaringiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc aringntildeogravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteucircaring (ogravearing iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing NtildeEcircIcirc ndash σ) acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave yacuteiacutearingethatildeegraveegrave oacuteotildeicircaumlyumlugravearingeacute egraveccedil agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc iacuteagrave ecircicircigraveiumlaringiacutentildeagraveoumlegravethorn iumlicircogravearingethuuml icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteucircotilde OgraveOuml ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlthornograve iumlethegraveigravearingethiacuteicirc 9 37 1021

= 33 1022 Aumlaelig Yacuteograveicirc yacuteecircacircegraveacircagraveeumlaringiacuteograveiacuteicirc 22 Acircograveigrave2 Egraveccedil ccedilagraveecircicirciacuteagrave NtildeogravearingocircagraveiacuteagravendashAacuteicirceumluumloumligraveagraveiacuteagrave ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc acircicircccediligraveoacuteugravearingiacuteegravethorn δP iumleumlicircograveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave igraveicircugraveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave iacuteagrave iumlicircacircaringethotildeiacuteicircntildeograveegrave Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave P ntildeicircicircograveacircaringograventildeograveacircoacutearingograve acircicircccediligraveoacuteugravearingiacuteegravearing yumlethecircicircntildeograveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc T

0

4 (1 )

PT T

P Aδ

δ =minus

(2)

atildeaumlaring P0 = 1368 Acircograveigrave2 ndash acirciacutearingagraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethiacuteagraveyuml iumleumlicircograveiacuteicircntildeograveuuml igraveicircugraveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave iumlicircograveicircecircagrave egraveccedileumloacutedividearingiacuteegraveyuml Ntildeicirceumliacuteoumlagrave A sim 30 ndashagraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave

Ntildeetharingaumliacutearingaring ccedilagrave atildeicircauml divideegraventildeeumlicirc OgraveOuml egrave EgraveAtildeOgrave (1971ndash2004 atildeatilde)

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Atildeicircaumlucirc iacuteagravedivideegraveiacuteagraveyuml ntilde 1970

timesegraventilde

eumlicirc Ograve

Ouml

ndash20

ndash10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Egraveiacuteaumlaring

ecircntilde atilde

eumlicircaacuteagrave

eumluumliacuteicirc

eacute ogravearing

igraveiumlaring

ethagraveograveoacute

ethucirc

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1

4

32

ETHegraventilde 6 Acirceumlegraveyumliacuteegravearing iumlicircograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml iacuteagrave EgraveAtildeOgrave

Atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteagraveyuml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave iumlicircogravearingiacuteoumlegraveagraveeumluumliacuteagraveyuml ograveicircdivideiacuteicircntildeograveuuml egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml ntildeograveicircotildeagraventildeograveegravedividearingntildeecircegravearing acircicircccediligraveoacuteugravearingiacuteegraveyuml 1069

Ntildeeumlaringaumlicircacircagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicirc iumloacuteagraventildentildeicirciacuteicircacircntildeecircegravearing ocirceumloacuteecircograveoacuteagraveoumlegraveegrave iumlicirc-ograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml aumlicirceumlaeligiacuteucirc acircucircccedilucircacircagraveograveuuml acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave yumlethecircicircntildeograveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing 014 Ecirc ogravearing acirc 2 ethagraveccedilagrave aacuteicirceumluumloslashegravearing dividearingigrave yacuteograveicirc aacuteucirceumlicirc egraventildeiumlicirceumluumlccedilicircacircagraveiacuteicirc acirc divideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteiacuteicircigrave yacuteecircntildeiumlaringethegraveigravearingiacuteogravearing (szligethecircicircntildeograveiacuteagraveyuml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave ntildeicircicircograve-acircaringograventildeograveacircoacutearingograve ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteetharing agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc iacuteagrave acircucircntildeicircogravearing sim 56 ecircigrave laquoiumlicircntildeetharingaumlegraveiacutearingraquo agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc) egrave aringaring acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave iumlicirc iumlicircethyumlaumlecircoacute acircaringeumlegravedivideegraveiacuteucirc aumlicirceumlaeligiacuteucirc ntildeicircicircograveacircaringograventildeograveacircicircacircagraveograveuuml acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveyumligrave iumlethegrave-ccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc Acircicirc acircntildeyumlecircicircigrave ntildeeumloacutedivideagravearing iumloacuteaacuteeumlegraveecircagrave-oumlegraveegrave icirc iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveegrave ograveetharingiacuteaumlicircacirc acircaringethograveegraveecircagraveeumluumliacuteicircatildeicirc atildeethagraveaumlegravearingiacuteograveagrave ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc acirc ograveethicirciumlicircntildeocircaringetharing agraveacircograveicircethagraveigrave iacutearingegraveccedilacircaringntildeograveiacuteucirc) Egraveccedil ntildeecircagraveccedilagraveiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc acirc divideagraventildeograveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc OgraveOuml iumletharingaumlntildeograveagraveacirc-eumlyumlthornograve ntildeicircaacuteicirceacute icircaumlegraveiacute egraveccedil igravearingotildeagraveiacuteegraveccediligraveicircacirc icircograveethegraveoumlagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicirceacute icircaacute-ethagraveograveiacuteicirceacute ntildeacircyumlccedilegrave ntildeograveagraveaacuteegraveeumlegraveccedilegraveethoacutethornugravearingeacute atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaring-ethagraveograveoacuteethoacute Acirc ntildeagraveigraveicircigrave aumlaringeumlaring OgraveOuml igraveicircatildeoacuteograve acircicircccediliacuteegraveecircagraveograveuuml eumlegraveoslashuuml iumlethegrave ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveegrave ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc agraveecircacircagraveograveicircethegraveegrave ge 300 Ecirc Oacuteacircaringeumlegravedividearingiacuteegravearing divideagraventildeograveicircograveucirc acircicircccediliacuteegraveecirciacuteicircacircaringiacuteegraveyuml ograveagraveecircegraveotilde agraveecircacircagraveograveicirc-ethegraveeacute iacutearingegraveccedilaacutearingaeligiacuteicircaring iumlethegrave ethicircntildeogravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacute-ethucirc iumlethegraveacircaringaumlaringograve ecirc ethicircntildeograveoacute divideagraventildeograveicircograveucirc iumlicircyumlacirceumlaringiacuteegraveyuml OgraveOuml divideograveicirc acirc ntildeacircicircthorn icircdividearingetharingaumluuml oacuteigravearingiacuteuumloslashegraveograve EgraveAtildeOgrave

Iumlethegraventildeograveoacuteiumlegraveigrave ogravearingiumlaringethuuml ecirc ethagraventildentildeigraveicircograveetharingiacuteegravethorn aumlethoacuteatildeicircatildeicirc acircicircccedil-igraveicircaeligiacuteicircatildeicirc igravearingotildeagraveiacuteegraveccediligraveagrave ethagraveiacuteaumlicircigraveegraveccedilagraveoumlegraveegrave EgraveAtildeOgrave Ecircagraveecirc egraveccedil-acircaringntildeograveiacuteicirc egraveccedil iumlethicircntildeogravearingeacuteoslashegraveotilde yacuteiacutearingethatildeicircaacuteagraveeumlagraveiacutentildeicircacircucircotilde igraveicircaumlaringeumlaringeacute ecirceumlegraveigraveagraveograveagrave egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute yumlethecircicircntildeograveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagrave-ograveoacuteethucirc T ntildeacircyumlccedilagraveiacuteicirc ntilde egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave iumlicirceumliacuteicircatildeicirc agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave A ntildeicircicircograveiacuteicircoslasharingiacuteegravearingigrave

4(1 )

dT TdA A

= minusminus

(3)

Icircograventildethornaumlagrave ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc iumlethegrave ntildeicircacircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteicircigrave ccediliacuteagravedividearing-iacuteegraveegrave A sim 30 egrave T sim 259 Ecirc egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc (ethagraveccediloacuteigravearingaringograventildeyuml ocircicircethigraveoacuteeumlagrave (3) icircograveiacuteicircntildeegraveograventildeyuml ecirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ethagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteetharing icircaumliacuteagraveecircicirc aumleumlyuml icircoumlaringiacuteicircecirc ethagraveccedileumlegravedivideegravearing igravearingaeligaumloacute egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluuml-iacuteucircotilde iumlethegraveccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute egrave ethagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteeth iacutearingntildeoacute-ugravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteicirc) iumlethegrave egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveegrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc iacuteagrave 1 ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacircegraveograve sim 09 Ecirc (iumlethegrave oacuteigravearingiacuteuumloslasharingiacuteegraveegrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave ethagraventilde-ogravearingograve) Ograveethagraveaumlegraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteucircigrave ntildeiumlicircntildeicircaacuteicircigrave egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc yumlacirceumlyumlaringograventildeyuml egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegravearing ntildeacircaringograveicircacircicircatildeicirc iumlicircograveicircecircagrave icircograve ccedilagraveogravearingigraveiacutearingiacute-iacuteicirceacute divideagraventildeograveegrave eumloacuteiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc aumlegraventildeecircagrave Yacuteograveegrave egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml aumlagravethornograve ntildeicirc-acircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteicircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing A = 2975 Icirciacuteegrave otildeicircethicircoslashicirc ntildeicirc-atildeeumlagraventildeoacutethornograventildeyuml ntilde egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave icircograveethagraveaeligagravearingigraveicircntildeograveegrave iumlethicircacircicircaumlegrave-igraveucircigraveegrave icircccedilicirciacuteicircigravearingograveethegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute agraveiumliumlagraveethagraveograveoacuteethicirceacute TOMS (ethegraventilde 7) ocircoacuteiacuteecircoumlegraveicirciacuteegraveethoacutethornugravearingeacute ntilde 1978 atilde (ntilde iacutearingaacuteicirceumluumloslashegraveigrave iumlaringetharingethucircacircicircigrave) iacuteagrave aacuteicircethograveagraveotilde EgraveNtildeCcedil Nimbus-7 Igravearingogravearingicirceth-3 egrave Earth Probe [6]

Ccedilicirciacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirc icircntildeetharingaumliacutearingiacuteiacuteucircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc (S65-N65)

22

28

30

34

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

Igraveicircaumlaringeumluuml (R2 = 88)

Icircecircograveyumlaacuteethuuml 1978ndash2004 atildeatilde

Egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml

Agraveeumluuml

aacutearingaumlicirc

ETHegraventilde 7 Atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicircaring agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc ndash igraveicircaumlaringeumluuml ntildearingccedilicirciacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc otildeicircaumlagrave egrave ntildeeumloacutedivideagraveeacuteiacuteagraveyuml ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlthornugraveagraveyuml

Ntildeetharingaumliacutearingaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing icircograveethagraveaeligagravearingigraveicircntildeograveegrave ccedilagrave yacuteograveegrave atildeicircaumlucirc ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacircegraveeumlicirc 301 NtildeEcircIcirc ntildearingccedilicirciacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc otildeicircaumlagrave sim 18 NtildeEcircIcirc ntildeograveicircotildeagraventildeograveegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlthornugravearingeacute (ntilde oacutedividearingograveicircigrave ethagraventildeotildeicircaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveeacute

VII egrave VIII acircaringethntildeegraveeacute TOMS) iacutearing igravearingiacutearingaring 03 Icircograveigravearingograveegraveigrave divideograveicirc NtildeEcircIcirc igravearingaeligatildeicircaumlicircacircucircotilde acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveeacute 03 yacuteecircacircegraveacircagraveeumlaringiacuteograveiacuteicirc NtildeEcircIcirc igravearingaeligatildeicircaumlicircacircucircotilde acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveeacute ethagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc acirciacutearingoslashiacutearing-atildeicirc acircicircccedilaumlaringeacutentildeograveacircegraveyuml sim 14 ecircAcircograveigrave2

03 asymp 42 Acircograveigrave2 Egraveccedil (2) ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc yacuteograveicirc aumlicirceumlaeligiacuteicirc iumlethegraveacircicircaumlegraveograveuuml ecirc ntildeograveicircotildeagraventildeograveegravedividearing-ntildeecircegraveigrave acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveyumligrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc sim 025 Ecirc (egraveigravearingiacuteiacuteicirc ograveagraveecircegraveigrave icircecircagraveccedilagraveeumlicircntildeuuml NtildeEcircIcirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagrave-ograveoacuteethucirc acirc ethyumlaumloacute [1])

Aringntildeogravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteicirc acircicircccediliacuteegraveecircagravearingograve acircicirciumlethicircntilde iumlicircdividearingigraveoacute iumlicirceumliacuteicircaring NtildeEcircIcirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc icircograveiacuteicircntildeegraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicirc iacutearingacircaring-eumlegraveecircicirc (iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing acircecirceumlagraveaumlagrave eumlegraveoslashuuml icircaumliacuteicirceacute egraveccedil igraveiacuteicircatildeegraveotilde iumlethegrave-divideegraveiacute) Aumlaringeumlicirc iumlicirc-acircegraveaumlegraveigraveicircigraveoacute acirc ograveicircigrave divideograveicirc acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave EgraveAtildeOgrave ntildeegraveeumluumliacuteicirc aumlaringigraveiumlocircegraveethoacutethornograventildeyuml icircograveethegraveoumlagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteucircigraveegrave icircaacuteethagraveograveiacuteucircigraveegrave ntildeacircyumlccedilyumligraveegrave acirc ecirceumlegraveigraveagraveograveegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute ntildeegraventildeogravearingigravearing Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave ecircicircograveicircethucircaring ethagraveccediloacuteigravearingaringograventildeyuml aumlagraveeumlaringecircicirc iacutearing egraventildedividearingethiumlucircacircagravethornograventildeyuml ograveicirceacute iacuteagrave ecircicircograveicirc-ethoacutethorn aacuteucirceumlicirc oacuteecircagraveccedilagraveiacuteicirc acircucircoslasharing

Acirc ccedilagraveecirceumlthorndividearingiacuteegravearing ntildeethagraveacirciacuteegraveigrave acircecirceumlagraveauml acirc yacuteiacutearingethatildearingograveegravedividearingntildeecircegraveeacute aacuteagraveeumlagraveiacutentilde aringntildeogravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteucircotilde acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveeacute iumlagraveethagraveigravearingograveethicircacirc ecirceumlegraveigraveagrave-ograveegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute ntildeegraventildeogravearingigraveucirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave (iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing 25 NtildeEcircIcirc) egrave icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc agraveiacuteograveethicirciumlicircatildearingiacuteiacuteucircigraveegrave acircucircaacuteethicircntildeagraveigraveegrave iumlagraveeth-iacuteegraveecircicircacircicircatildeicirc yacuteocircocircaringecircograveagrave [1] Yacuteograveegrave acircecirceumlagraveaumlucirc egraveccedilicircaacuteethagraveaeligaringiacuteucirc iacuteagrave ethegraventilde 8 egraveccedil ecircicircograveicircethicircatildeicirc ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc icircaacuteiacuteagraveethoacuteaeligaringiacuteegravearing agraveiacute-ograveethicirciumlicircatildearingiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc acircicircccedilaumlaringeacutentildeograveacircegraveyuml iacuteagrave EgraveAtildeOgrave iumlicirc ntildeagraveigraveucircigrave icirciumlograveegrave-igraveegraventildeograveegravedivideiacuteucircigrave icircoumlaringiacuteecircagraveigrave iumlethegraveotildeicircaumlegraveograventildeyuml acircaringntildeograveegrave acirc oacutentildeeumlicircacircegraveyumlotilde ntildeicircicircograveiacuteicircoslasharingiacuteegraveyuml ntildeegraveatildeiacuteagraveeuml-oslashoacuteigrave iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing ndash 19 aumlAacute Iumlicirc-acircegraveaumlegraveigraveicircigraveoacute yacuteograveagrave ccedilagraveaumlagravedivideagrave iumletharingacircicircntildeotildeicircaumlegraveograve acircicircccediligraveicircaeligiacuteicircntildeograveegrave ntildeoacuteugravearingntildeograveacircoacutethornugravearingeacute iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicirceacute ntildeegraventildeogravearingigraveucirc

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3

Acircecirceumlagraveauml Acircograveigrave2

ETHegraventilde 8 ETHagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicircaring acircicircccedilaumlaringeacutentildeograveacircegravearing aringntildeogravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteucircotilde egrave agraveiacuteograveethicirc-iumlicircatildearingiacuteiacuteucircotilde iumlethicircoumlaringntildentildeicircacirc 1 ndash acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc 2 ndash acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave iumlicircograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml 3 ndash agraveiacuteograveethicirciumlicircatildearingiacuteiacuteucirceacute iumlagraveethiacuteegraveecircicircacircucirceacute yacuteocircocircaringecircograve

Ntildeagraveigrave iumlicirc ntildearingaacutearing oacuteethicircacircaringiacuteuuml ndash19 aumlAacute iacutearing yumlacirceumlyumlaringograventildeyuml iacutearing-iumletharingicircaumlicirceumlegraveigraveucircigrave iumletharingiumlyumlograventildeograveacircegravearingigrave aumleumlyuml icircaacuteiacuteagraveethoacuteaeligaringiacuteegraveyuml (ecircagraveecirc ntildeacircegraveaumlaringogravearingeumluumlntildeograveacircoacutearingograve iacuteagraveiumlethegraveigravearingeth icirciumlucircograve ethagraveaumlegraveicircagraventildeograveethicirciacuteicircigraveegrave-dividearingntildeecircegraveotilde iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveeacute) iacuteicirc iumletharingaumluacuteyumlacirceumlyumlaringograve aumlicircntildeograveagraveograveicircdivideiacuteicirc acircucirc-ntildeicircecircegravearing ograveetharingaacuteicircacircagraveiacuteegraveyuml ecircagraveecirc ecirc agraveiumliumlagraveethagraveograveoacuteethiacuteucircigrave ograveagraveecirc egrave ecirc igravearing-ograveicircaumlegravedividearingntildeecircegraveigrave ntildeetharingaumlntildeograveacircagraveigrave icircaacuteiacuteagraveethoacuteaeligaringiacuteegraveyuml

Egrave iacuteagraveecircicirciacutearingouml iacutearingntildeecircicirceumluumlecircicirc ntildeeumlicircacirc icircaacute agraveiacuteograveethicirciumlicircatildearingiacuteiacuteicirceacute icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteicircntildeograveegrave ethicircntildeograveagrave ntildeicircaumlaringethaeligagraveiacuteegraveyuml NtildeIcirc2 acirc agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaring-etharing Ntildeagraveigraveucircaring yacuteeumlaringigravearingiacuteograveagraveethiacuteucircaring icircoumlaringiacuteecircegrave iumlicircethicircaeligaumlagravethornograve ntildearingethuumlaringccedil-iacuteucircaring ntildeicircigraveiacutearingiacuteegraveyuml acirc ograveagraveecircicirceacute icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteicircntildeograveegrave Agrave egraveigravearingiacuteiacuteicirc ndash acircntildearingatildeicirc NtildeIcirc2 acirc agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringetharing ndash 3 middot 1012 ograve

ndash egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegravearing ethagraventildeograveacircicircethegraveigraveicircntildeograveegrave NtildeIcirc2 acirc icircecircaringagraveiacutearing ntilde ethicirc-ntildeograveicircigrave ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc ndash 415 eumlm middot K

ndash etharingagraveecircoumlegraveyuml iacuteagrave egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegravearing ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc divideoacuteacircntildeograveacircegrave-ogravearingeumluumliacuteicircatildeicirc ntildeeumlicircyuml icircecircaringagraveiacuteagrave (igraveegraveiacuteegraveigraveagraveeumluumliacuteagraveyuml icircoumlaringiacuteecircagrave 30 igrave) ndash 9 middot 1011 ograveEcirc

4 Icirciumlograveegraveecircagrave agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc egrave icircecircaringagraveiacuteagrave sup1 12

1066 Ecircethoacutedividearingiacuteegraveoumlecircegraveeacute AtildeIgrave

egrave oacutentildeetharingaumliacuteyumlyuml (1agrave) iumlicirc oslashegraveethicircogravearing ntilde acircaringntildeicircigrave iumlethicirciumlicircethoumlegraveicirc-iacuteagraveeumluumliacuteucircigrave iumleumlicircugraveagraveaumlegrave iumlicircyumlntildeagrave ndash cosϕ iumlicirceumloacutedivideagravearingigrave aumleumlyuml iumlicirc-atildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave icirciumletharingaumlaringeumlaringiacuteegraveyuml ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicircaumlicircacircicircatildeicirc ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc δ = 028 K

0

2

6

8

10

12

ndash80 ndash60 ndash40 ndash20 0 20 40 60 80Oslashegraveethicircograveagrave atildeethagraveauml

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ccediliacuteagrave

dividearingiacuteegrave

yuml icircaacute

aringntildeiumlaring

dividearingiacuteiacute

icircntildeograveegrave

1 ndash NtildeEcircIcirc ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc 2 ndash icircaacutearingntildeiumlaringdividearingiacuteiacuteicircntildeograveuuml iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave

8

Ccediliacuteagravedivide

aringiacuteegraveyuml

NtildeEcirc

Icirc Ecirc

2

1

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Icircoumlaringiacuteegraveacircagraveyuml iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveuuml acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteegraveyuml aringaeligaringatildeicircaumliacuteicircatildeicirc ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml EgraveAtildeOgrave iumlicircegraveigravearingiacuteicircacircagraveiacuteiacuteucircaring yacuteecircntildeiumlaringethograveucirc iumlicircaumlntildeograveagraveacirc-eumlyumleumlegrave acirc divideegraventildeeumlegraveogravearingeumluuml ocircicircethigraveoacuteeumlucirc (1) yacuteigraveiumlegraveethegravedividearingntildeecircicircaring NtildeEcircIcirc iumlicirc acircntildearingigrave oacuteccedileumlagraveigrave etharingatildeoacuteeumlyumlethiacuteicirceacute ntildearingograveecircegrave atildeaumlaring egraveigravearingthornograventildeyuml aumlagraveiacute-iacuteucircaring ccedilagrave yacuteograveicircograve atildeicircauml egrave iumlicirceumloacutedivideegraveeumlegrave acircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteicirceacute otildeicircauml iumlicirc-atildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteegraveyuml aringaeligaringatildeicircaumliacuteucircotilde ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveeacute EgraveAtildeOgrave (ecircethegraveacircagraveyuml 1 iacuteagrave ethegraventilde 3) Icircdividearingacircegraveaumliacuteicirc divideograveicirc ograveagraveecircicirceacute iumlicircaumlotildeicircauml iumlicirceumliacuteicircntildeograveuumlthorn egraveatildeiacuteicircethegraveethoacutearingograve ograveicirc icircaacutentildeograveicircyumlogravearingeumluumlntildeograveacircicirc divideograveicirc icircograventildedividearing-ograveucirc acirc ethagraveccedileumlegravedivideiacuteucircotilde oacuteccedileumlagraveotilde etharingatildeoacuteeumlyumlethiacuteicirceacute ntildearingograveecircegrave icircntildeacircaringugraveagravethornograve

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05

1015202530 3540

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 atilde

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2

1

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ETHegraventilde 3 ETHagraveccedileumlegravedivideiacuteucircaring icircoumlaringiacuteecircegrave iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveegrave acircucircdivideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteegraveyuml EgraveAtildeOgrave

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ogravearingethigraveicircaumlegraveiacuteagraveigraveegravedividearingntildeecircegrave iacutearingethagraveacirciacuteicircacircaringntildeiacuteicirceacute ntildeegraventilde-ogravearingigraveucirc icircaacuteuacutearingigraveicircigrave 5 igraveeumliacute ecircigrave3 ntilde iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveuumlthorn 005 K ntilde iumlicircigraveicircugraveuumlthorn 10 ograveucircntilde aumlagraveogravedivideegraveecircicircacirc iacutearingacircicircccediligraveicircaeligiacuteicirc iacutearingccedilagraveacircegraventildeegrave-igraveicirc icircograve ecircagravedividearingntildeograveacircagrave aumlagraveogravedivideegraveecircicircacirc etharingaeligegraveigraveagrave egraveotilde icirciumlethicircntildeagrave egrave ethagraventildeiumlicirceumlicircaeligaringiacuteegraveyuml acirciacuteoacuteograveethegrave ntildeegraventildeogravearingigraveucirc (Ntildeograveethicircatildeicirc atildeicircacircicircethyuml ecirc 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1

2 3

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ntildeograveicircotildeagraventilde-ograveegravedividearingntildeecircicircigraveoacute ethicircntildeograveoacute atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc ntilde acircaringethicircyumlograve-iacuteicircntildeograveuumlthorn ntildeethagraveacirciacuteegraveigraveicirceacute iumlicirc acircaringeumlegravedivideegraveiacutearing ntilde aringaumlegraveiacuteegraveoumlaringeacute (Iacuteagrave-iumlicircigraveiacuteegraveigrave divideograveicirc iumlicircatildeetharingoslashiacuteicircntildeograveuuml egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeeumlicirc-aacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc aumlaringecirceumlagraveethegraveethicircacircagraveiacuteagrave acirc [1] iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirc-iacutearing igravearingaeligaumloacute 005 egrave 01 Ecirc agrave acirc divideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteiacuteicircigrave yacuteecircntildeiumlaringethegraveigravearingiacuteogravearing ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml iacutearingicircaacuteiacuteagraveethoacuteaeligegraveigraveucircotilde ntildeeumloacutedivideagraveeacuteiacuteucircotilde acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveeacute acircucirc-aacuteethagraveiacuteucirc iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing 0067 Ecirc)

4 Ntildeoacuteugravearingntildeograveacircoacutethornograve eumlegrave iumlethegravedivideegraveiacuteucirc aumleumlyuml ocirceumloacuteecircograveoacuteagraveoumlegraveeacute atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc

Igraveucirc ethagraventildentildeigraveicircograveethegraveigrave ograveicirceumluumlecircicirc aumlacircaring egraveccedil oacuteiumlicircigraveyumliacuteoacuteograveucircotilde acircucircoslasharing iumlethegravedivideegraveiacute iacutearing iumlicircograveicircigraveoacute divideograveicirc egraveotilde acircecirceumlagraveauml acircicirc ocirceumloacuteecircograveoacuteagrave-oumlegraveegrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc iacuteagraveegraveaacuteicirceumlaringaring ntildeoacuteugravearingntildeograveacircaringiacute agrave iumlicircograveicircigraveoacute divideograveicirc yacuteograveicircograve acircecirceumlagraveauml eumlaringatildeecircicirc iumlicircaumlaumlagravearingograventildeyuml yacuteeumlaringigravearingiacute-ograveagraveethiacuteicirceacute icircoumlaringiacuteecircaring ETHaringdivideuuml egraveaumlaringograve icirc ograveethicirciumlegravedividearingntildeecircegraveotilde oumlegraveecirceumlicirciacuteagraveotilde (OgraveOuml) egrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicircigrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc

ETHagraveccedilacircegraveacircagraveyumlntildeuuml acirc ograveethicirciumlegravedividearingntildeecircegraveotilde agraveecircacircagraveograveicircethegraveyumlotilde Igraveegraveethicircacircicirc-atildeicirc icircecircaringagraveiacuteagrave OgraveOuml iumlethicircegraveccedilacircicircaumlyumlograve egraveiacuteogravearingiacutentildeegraveacirciacuteicircaring iumlaringetharingigravearingoslashegrave-acircagraveiacuteegravearing icircecircaringagraveiacuteegravedividearingntildeecircegraveotilde acircicircauml iacuteagrave atildeeumloacuteaacuteegraveiacuteagraveotilde aumlicirc 200ndash400 igrave egrave iumlicircntildeeumlaring egraveotilde iumlethicircotildeicircaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml iacuteagraveaumlicirceumlatildeicirc icircntildeograveagravearingograventildeyuml laquontildeeumlaringaumlraquo acirc acircegraveaumlaring icircecircaringagraveiacuteegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute icircaacuteeumlagraventildeograveegrave ntilde iumlicirciacuteegraveaeligaringiacuteiacuteicirceacute iacuteagrave iacutearing-ntildeecircicirceumluumlecircicirc atildeethagraveaumloacutentildeicircacirc ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethicirceacute Aringntildeogravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteicirc divideograveicirc iacuteagraveeumlegravedivideegravearing ograveagraveecircegraveotilde icircaacuteeumlagraventildeogravearingeacute iumlethegraveacircicircaumlegraveograve ecirc ntildeograveicircecircoacute ogravearingiumleumlagrave egraveccedil agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc acirc icircecircaringagraveiacute Yacuteograveicirc iumlicircaumlograveacircaringethaeligaumlagravearingograve ethegraventilde 6 iacuteagrave ecircicircograveicircethicircigrave otildeicircethicircoslashicirc acircegraveaumliacuteagrave icircograveethegraveoumlagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteagraveyuml ecircicircethetharingeumlyumloumlegraveyuml divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml egrave ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml egraveiacuteaumlaringecircntildeagrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagrave-ograveoacuteethucirc (EgraveAtildeOgrave ndash icircograveecirceumlicirciacutearingiacuteegravearing ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicircaumlicircacircicircatildeicirc ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml

icircograve ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicirc ccedilagrave iumlaringethegraveicircauml 1960ndash2000 atildeatilde acircucircethagraveaeligaringiacuteiacuteicircaring acirc ntildeicircograveucircotilde aumlicirceumlyumlotilde atildeethagraveaumloacutentildeagrave)

timesegraventildeeumlaringiacuteiacuteicircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing ecircicircyacuteocircocircegraveoumlegravearingiacuteograveagrave ecircicircethetharingeumlyumloumlegraveegrave ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve ndash 50 iacuteicirc iacuteagraveaumlicirc egraveigravearingograveuuml acirc acircegraveaumloacute divideograveicirc acirceumlegraveyuml-iacuteegravearing OgraveOuml iacuteagrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute ntildeacircyumlccedilagraveiacuteicirc iacutearing ograveicirceumluumlecircicirc ntilde egraveotilde ecircicirceumlegravedividearingntildeograveacircicircigrave iacuteicirc egrave ntilde egraveiacuteaumlegraveacircegraveaumloacuteagraveeumluumliacuteucircigraveegrave ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave iumlagraveethagraveigravearingograveethicircacirc OgraveOuml

Ecirc ntildeicircaeligagraveeumlaringiacuteegravethorn iacuteagraveaumlaringaeligiacuteucircaring aumlagraveiacuteiacuteucircaring icirc divideegraventildeeumlaring egrave iumlagrave-ethagraveigravearingograveethagraveotilde OgraveOuml iumlicircyumlacircegraveeumlegraventildeuuml ograveicirceumluumlecircicirc iumlicircntildeeumlaring acirciacutearingaumletharingiacuteegraveyuml acirc icirciumlaringethagraveograveegraveacirciacuteoacutethorn iumlethagraveecircograveegraveecircoacute ecircicircntildeigraveegravedividearingntildeecircegraveotilde ntildeetharingaumlntildeograveacirc iacuteagrave-aacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml ogravearing iacuteagravedivideegraveiacuteagraveyuml ntilde 70-otilde atildeatilde XX acirc Aumleumlyuml aacuteicirceumlaringaring ethagraveiacuteiacutearingatildeicirc iumlaringethegraveicircaumlagrave otildeagraveethagraveecircogravearingethiacuteucirc iumlethicirciumloacutentildeecircegrave ccediliacuteagravedivideegraveogravearingeumluuml-iacuteicircatildeicirc divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml Icircoumlaringiacuteegraveigrave yacuteiacutearingethatildearingograveegravedividearingntildeecircegraveeacute acircecirceumlagraveauml acircagrave-ethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicircaumlicircacircicircatildeicirc divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml acirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute iumlicirc aumlagraveiacuteiacuteucircigrave ntildeagraveeacuteograveagrave AtildeIgraveOuml ETHicircntildeatildeegraveaumlethicircigravearingograveagrave [5] Iumlicirceumlagraveatildeagraveyuml ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn aumleumlegraveiacuteoacute ograveethagravearingecircograveicircethegraveegrave OgraveOuml ethagraveacirciacuteicirceacute 3 ograveucircntilde ecircigrave ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn oslashegraveethegraveiacuteoacute ndash 500 ecircigrave ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn atildeeumloacute-aacuteegraveiacuteoacute iumlaringetharingigravearingoslashegraveacircagraveiacuteegraveyuml acircicircaumlucirc ndash 300 igrave agrave ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn ogravearingigrave-iumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute icircotildeeumlagraveaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml ndash 2 Ecirc iumlicirceumloacutedivideegraveigrave divideograveicirc aumleumlyuml ecircicircigrave-iumlaringiacutentildeagraveoumlegraveegrave icircotildeeumlagraveaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml acircicircaumlucirc icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc ntildeetharingauml-iacuteegraveigrave OgraveOuml egraveccedil agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc aacuteoacuteaumlaringograve egraveccediluacuteyumlograveicirc sim 37 1021 Aumlaelig timesegraventildeeumlicirc OgraveOuml acircagraveethuumlegraveethoacutearingograventildeyuml atildeicircauml icircograve atildeicircaumlagrave (ccedilagrave iumlicircntildeeumlaringauml-iacuteegravearing 30 eumlaringograve XX acirc icirciacuteicirc ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumleumlicirc icircograve 61 aumlicirc 103) Yacuteigrave-iumlegraveethegravedividearingntildeecircicircaring ntildeetharingaumliacutearingaring ecircicirceumlegravedividearingntildeograveacircicirc OgraveOuml acirc atildeicircauml ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve 827 yacuteigraveiumlegraveethegravedividearingntildeecircicircaring NtildeEcircIcirc ndash 88 divideograveicirc otildeicircethicircoslashicirc ntildeicircatildeeumlagrave-ntildeoacutearingograventildeyuml ntilde ocircegraveccedilegravedividearingntildeecircegrave icircntildeigraveucircntildeeumlaringiacuteiacuteicirceacute atildeegraveiumlicircogravearingccedilicirceacute icirc iumloacuteagraventilde-ntildeicirciacuteicircacircntildeecircicirceacute iumlethegraveethicircaumlaring iumlicircograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml ( 827 91= ) Yacuteograveagrave atildeegraveiumlicircogravearingccedilagrave oacutentildeiumlaringoslashiacuteicirc acircucircaumlaringethaeligegraveacircagravearingograve egrave ntildeograveagraveiacuteaumlagraveethograveiacuteicircaring ogravearingntilde-ograveegraveethicircacircagraveiacuteegravearing [2] ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing ntildeograveagraveograveegraventildeograveegraveecircegrave 2

2χ ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve 22 iumlethegrave iumlicircethicircatildearing icircograveacircaringethaeligaringiacuteegraveyuml atildeegraveiumlicircogravearingccedilucirc 599 Egraveccedil acircucirc-oslasharingegraveccedileumlicircaeligaringiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc aringntildeogravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteucircaring (ogravearing iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing NtildeEcircIcirc ndash σ) acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave yacuteiacutearingethatildeegraveegrave oacuteotildeicircaumlyumlugravearingeacute egraveccedil agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc iacuteagrave ecircicircigraveiumlaringiacutentildeagraveoumlegravethorn iumlicircogravearingethuuml icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteucircotilde OgraveOuml ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlthornograve iumlethegraveigravearingethiacuteicirc 9 37 1021

= 33 1022 Aumlaelig Yacuteograveicirc yacuteecircacircegraveacircagraveeumlaringiacuteograveiacuteicirc 22 Acircograveigrave2 Egraveccedil ccedilagraveecircicirciacuteagrave NtildeogravearingocircagraveiacuteagravendashAacuteicirceumluumloumligraveagraveiacuteagrave ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc acircicircccediligraveoacuteugravearingiacuteegravethorn δP iumleumlicircograveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave igraveicircugraveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave iacuteagrave iumlicircacircaringethotildeiacuteicircntildeograveegrave Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave P ntildeicircicircograveacircaringograventildeograveacircoacutearingograve acircicircccediligraveoacuteugravearingiacuteegravearing yumlethecircicircntildeograveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc T

0

4 (1 )

PT T

P Aδ

δ =minus

(2)

atildeaumlaring P0 = 1368 Acircograveigrave2 ndash acirciacutearingagraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethiacuteagraveyuml iumleumlicircograveiacuteicircntildeograveuuml igraveicircugraveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave iumlicircograveicircecircagrave egraveccedileumloacutedividearingiacuteegraveyuml Ntildeicirceumliacuteoumlagrave A sim 30 ndashagraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave

Ntildeetharingaumliacutearingaring ccedilagrave atildeicircauml divideegraventildeeumlicirc OgraveOuml egrave EgraveAtildeOgrave (1971ndash2004 atildeatilde)

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Atildeicircaumlucirc iacuteagravedivideegraveiacuteagraveyuml ntilde 1970

timesegraventilde

eumlicirc Ograve

Ouml

ndash20

ndash10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Egraveiacuteaumlaring

ecircntilde atilde

eumlicircaacuteagrave

eumluumliacuteicirc

eacute ogravearing

igraveiumlaring

ethagraveograveoacute

ethucirc

1 ndash divideegraventildeeumlicirc OgraveOuml 3 ndash EgraveAtildeOgrave 2 ndash ograveetharingiacuteauml EgraveAtildeOgrave 4 ndash ograveetharingiacuteauml divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml

1

4

32

ETHegraventilde 6 Acirceumlegraveyumliacuteegravearing iumlicircograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml iacuteagrave EgraveAtildeOgrave

Atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteagraveyuml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave iumlicircogravearingiacuteoumlegraveagraveeumluumliacuteagraveyuml ograveicircdivideiacuteicircntildeograveuuml egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml ntildeograveicircotildeagraventildeograveegravedividearingntildeecircegravearing acircicircccediligraveoacuteugravearingiacuteegraveyuml 1069

Ntildeeumlaringaumlicircacircagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicirc iumloacuteagraventildentildeicirciacuteicircacircntildeecircegravearing ocirceumloacuteecircograveoacuteagraveoumlegraveegrave iumlicirc-ograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml aumlicirceumlaeligiacuteucirc acircucircccedilucircacircagraveograveuuml acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave yumlethecircicircntildeograveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing 014 Ecirc ogravearing acirc 2 ethagraveccedilagrave aacuteicirceumluumloslashegravearing dividearingigrave yacuteograveicirc aacuteucirceumlicirc egraventildeiumlicirceumluumlccedilicircacircagraveiacuteicirc acirc divideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteiacuteicircigrave yacuteecircntildeiumlaringethegraveigravearingiacuteogravearing (szligethecircicircntildeograveiacuteagraveyuml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave ntildeicircicircograve-acircaringograventildeograveacircoacutearingograve ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteetharing agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc iacuteagrave acircucircntildeicircogravearing sim 56 ecircigrave laquoiumlicircntildeetharingaumlegraveiacutearingraquo agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc) egrave aringaring acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave iumlicirc iumlicircethyumlaumlecircoacute acircaringeumlegravedivideegraveiacuteucirc aumlicirceumlaeligiacuteucirc ntildeicircicircograveacircaringograventildeograveacircicircacircagraveograveuuml acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveyumligrave iumlethegrave-ccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc Acircicirc acircntildeyumlecircicircigrave ntildeeumloacutedivideagravearing iumloacuteaacuteeumlegraveecircagrave-oumlegraveegrave icirc iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveegrave ograveetharingiacuteaumlicircacirc acircaringethograveegraveecircagraveeumluumliacuteicircatildeicirc atildeethagraveaumlegravearingiacuteograveagrave ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc acirc ograveethicirciumlicircntildeocircaringetharing agraveacircograveicircethagraveigrave iacutearingegraveccedilacircaringntildeograveiacuteucirc) Egraveccedil ntildeecircagraveccedilagraveiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc acirc divideagraventildeograveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc OgraveOuml iumletharingaumlntildeograveagraveacirc-eumlyumlthornograve ntildeicircaacuteicirceacute icircaumlegraveiacute egraveccedil igravearingotildeagraveiacuteegraveccediligraveicircacirc icircograveethegraveoumlagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicirceacute icircaacute-ethagraveograveiacuteicirceacute ntildeacircyumlccedilegrave ntildeograveagraveaacuteegraveeumlegraveccedilegraveethoacutethornugravearingeacute atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaring-ethagraveograveoacuteethoacute Acirc ntildeagraveigraveicircigrave aumlaringeumlaring OgraveOuml igraveicircatildeoacuteograve acircicircccediliacuteegraveecircagraveograveuuml eumlegraveoslashuuml iumlethegrave ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveegrave ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc agraveecircacircagraveograveicircethegraveegrave ge 300 Ecirc Oacuteacircaringeumlegravedividearingiacuteegravearing divideagraventildeograveicircograveucirc acircicircccediliacuteegraveecirciacuteicircacircaringiacuteegraveyuml ograveagraveecircegraveotilde agraveecircacircagraveograveicirc-ethegraveeacute iacutearingegraveccedilaacutearingaeligiacuteicircaring iumlethegrave ethicircntildeogravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacute-ethucirc iumlethegraveacircaringaumlaringograve ecirc ethicircntildeograveoacute divideagraventildeograveicircograveucirc iumlicircyumlacirceumlaringiacuteegraveyuml OgraveOuml divideograveicirc acirc ntildeacircicircthorn icircdividearingetharingaumluuml oacuteigravearingiacuteuumloslashegraveograve EgraveAtildeOgrave

Iumlethegraventildeograveoacuteiumlegraveigrave ogravearingiumlaringethuuml ecirc ethagraventildentildeigraveicircograveetharingiacuteegravethorn aumlethoacuteatildeicircatildeicirc acircicircccedil-igraveicircaeligiacuteicircatildeicirc igravearingotildeagraveiacuteegraveccediligraveagrave ethagraveiacuteaumlicircigraveegraveccedilagraveoumlegraveegrave EgraveAtildeOgrave Ecircagraveecirc egraveccedil-acircaringntildeograveiacuteicirc egraveccedil iumlethicircntildeogravearingeacuteoslashegraveotilde yacuteiacutearingethatildeicircaacuteagraveeumlagraveiacutentildeicircacircucircotilde igraveicircaumlaringeumlaringeacute ecirceumlegraveigraveagraveograveagrave egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute yumlethecircicircntildeograveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagrave-ograveoacuteethucirc T ntildeacircyumlccedilagraveiacuteicirc ntilde egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave iumlicirceumliacuteicircatildeicirc agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave A ntildeicircicircograveiacuteicircoslasharingiacuteegravearingigrave

4(1 )

dT TdA A

= minusminus

(3)

Icircograventildethornaumlagrave ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc iumlethegrave ntildeicircacircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteicircigrave ccediliacuteagravedividearing-iacuteegraveegrave A sim 30 egrave T sim 259 Ecirc egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc (ethagraveccediloacuteigravearingaringograventildeyuml ocircicircethigraveoacuteeumlagrave (3) icircograveiacuteicircntildeegraveograventildeyuml ecirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ethagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteetharing icircaumliacuteagraveecircicirc aumleumlyuml icircoumlaringiacuteicircecirc ethagraveccedileumlegravedivideegravearing igravearingaeligaumloacute egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluuml-iacuteucircotilde iumlethegraveccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute egrave ethagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteeth iacutearingntildeoacute-ugravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteicirc) iumlethegrave egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveegrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc iacuteagrave 1 ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacircegraveograve sim 09 Ecirc (iumlethegrave oacuteigravearingiacuteuumloslasharingiacuteegraveegrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave ethagraventilde-ogravearingograve) Ograveethagraveaumlegraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteucircigrave ntildeiumlicircntildeicircaacuteicircigrave egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc yumlacirceumlyumlaringograventildeyuml egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegravearing ntildeacircaringograveicircacircicircatildeicirc iumlicircograveicircecircagrave icircograve ccedilagraveogravearingigraveiacutearingiacute-iacuteicirceacute divideagraventildeograveegrave eumloacuteiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc aumlegraventildeecircagrave Yacuteograveegrave egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml aumlagravethornograve ntildeicirc-acircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteicircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing A = 2975 Icirciacuteegrave otildeicircethicircoslashicirc ntildeicirc-atildeeumlagraventildeoacutethornograventildeyuml ntilde egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave icircograveethagraveaeligagravearingigraveicircntildeograveegrave iumlethicircacircicircaumlegrave-igraveucircigraveegrave icircccedilicirciacuteicircigravearingograveethegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute agraveiumliumlagraveethagraveograveoacuteethicirceacute TOMS (ethegraventilde 7) ocircoacuteiacuteecircoumlegraveicirciacuteegraveethoacutethornugravearingeacute ntilde 1978 atilde (ntilde iacutearingaacuteicirceumluumloslashegraveigrave iumlaringetharingethucircacircicircigrave) iacuteagrave aacuteicircethograveagraveotilde EgraveNtildeCcedil Nimbus-7 Igravearingogravearingicirceth-3 egrave Earth Probe [6]

Ccedilicirciacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirc icircntildeetharingaumliacutearingiacuteiacuteucircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc (S65-N65)

22

28

30

34

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

Igraveicircaumlaringeumluuml (R2 = 88)

Icircecircograveyumlaacuteethuuml 1978ndash2004 atildeatilde

Egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml

Agraveeumluuml

aacutearingaumlicirc

ETHegraventilde 7 Atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicircaring agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc ndash igraveicircaumlaringeumluuml ntildearingccedilicirciacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc otildeicircaumlagrave egrave ntildeeumloacutedivideagraveeacuteiacuteagraveyuml ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlthornugraveagraveyuml

Ntildeetharingaumliacutearingaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing icircograveethagraveaeligagravearingigraveicircntildeograveegrave ccedilagrave yacuteograveegrave atildeicircaumlucirc ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacircegraveeumlicirc 301 NtildeEcircIcirc ntildearingccedilicirciacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc otildeicircaumlagrave sim 18 NtildeEcircIcirc ntildeograveicircotildeagraventildeograveegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlthornugravearingeacute (ntilde oacutedividearingograveicircigrave ethagraventildeotildeicircaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveeacute

VII egrave VIII acircaringethntildeegraveeacute TOMS) iacutearing igravearingiacutearingaring 03 Icircograveigravearingograveegraveigrave divideograveicirc NtildeEcircIcirc igravearingaeligatildeicircaumlicircacircucircotilde acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveeacute 03 yacuteecircacircegraveacircagraveeumlaringiacuteograveiacuteicirc NtildeEcircIcirc igravearingaeligatildeicircaumlicircacircucircotilde acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveeacute ethagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc acirciacutearingoslashiacutearing-atildeicirc acircicircccedilaumlaringeacutentildeograveacircegraveyuml sim 14 ecircAcircograveigrave2

03 asymp 42 Acircograveigrave2 Egraveccedil (2) ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc yacuteograveicirc aumlicirceumlaeligiacuteicirc iumlethegraveacircicircaumlegraveograveuuml ecirc ntildeograveicircotildeagraventildeograveegravedividearing-ntildeecircegraveigrave acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveyumligrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc sim 025 Ecirc (egraveigravearingiacuteiacuteicirc ograveagraveecircegraveigrave icircecircagraveccedilagraveeumlicircntildeuuml NtildeEcircIcirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagrave-ograveoacuteethucirc acirc ethyumlaumloacute [1])

Aringntildeogravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteicirc acircicircccediliacuteegraveecircagravearingograve acircicirciumlethicircntilde iumlicircdividearingigraveoacute iumlicirceumliacuteicircaring NtildeEcircIcirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc icircograveiacuteicircntildeegraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicirc iacutearingacircaring-eumlegraveecircicirc (iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing acircecirceumlagraveaumlagrave eumlegraveoslashuuml icircaumliacuteicirceacute egraveccedil igraveiacuteicircatildeegraveotilde iumlethegrave-divideegraveiacute) Aumlaringeumlicirc iumlicirc-acircegraveaumlegraveigraveicircigraveoacute acirc ograveicircigrave divideograveicirc acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave EgraveAtildeOgrave ntildeegraveeumluumliacuteicirc aumlaringigraveiumlocircegraveethoacutethornograventildeyuml icircograveethegraveoumlagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteucircigraveegrave icircaacuteethagraveograveiacuteucircigraveegrave ntildeacircyumlccedilyumligraveegrave acirc ecirceumlegraveigraveagraveograveegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute ntildeegraventildeogravearingigravearing Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave ecircicircograveicircethucircaring ethagraveccediloacuteigravearingaringograventildeyuml aumlagraveeumlaringecircicirc iacutearing egraventildedividearingethiumlucircacircagravethornograventildeyuml ograveicirceacute iacuteagrave ecircicircograveicirc-ethoacutethorn aacuteucirceumlicirc oacuteecircagraveccedilagraveiacuteicirc acircucircoslasharing

Acirc ccedilagraveecirceumlthorndividearingiacuteegravearing ntildeethagraveacirciacuteegraveigrave acircecirceumlagraveauml acirc yacuteiacutearingethatildearingograveegravedividearingntildeecircegraveeacute aacuteagraveeumlagraveiacutentilde aringntildeogravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteucircotilde acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveeacute iumlagraveethagraveigravearingograveethicircacirc ecirceumlegraveigraveagrave-ograveegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute ntildeegraventildeogravearingigraveucirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave (iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing 25 NtildeEcircIcirc) egrave icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc agraveiacuteograveethicirciumlicircatildearingiacuteiacuteucircigraveegrave acircucircaacuteethicircntildeagraveigraveegrave iumlagraveeth-iacuteegraveecircicircacircicircatildeicirc yacuteocircocircaringecircograveagrave [1] Yacuteograveegrave acircecirceumlagraveaumlucirc egraveccedilicircaacuteethagraveaeligaringiacuteucirc iacuteagrave ethegraventilde 8 egraveccedil ecircicircograveicircethicircatildeicirc ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc icircaacuteiacuteagraveethoacuteaeligaringiacuteegravearing agraveiacute-ograveethicirciumlicircatildearingiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc acircicircccedilaumlaringeacutentildeograveacircegraveyuml iacuteagrave EgraveAtildeOgrave iumlicirc ntildeagraveigraveucircigrave icirciumlograveegrave-igraveegraventildeograveegravedivideiacuteucircigrave icircoumlaringiacuteecircagraveigrave iumlethegraveotildeicircaumlegraveograventildeyuml acircaringntildeograveegrave acirc oacutentildeeumlicircacircegraveyumlotilde ntildeicircicircograveiacuteicircoslasharingiacuteegraveyuml ntildeegraveatildeiacuteagraveeuml-oslashoacuteigrave iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing ndash 19 aumlAacute Iumlicirc-acircegraveaumlegraveigraveicircigraveoacute yacuteograveagrave ccedilagraveaumlagravedivideagrave iumletharingacircicircntildeotildeicircaumlegraveograve acircicircccediligraveicircaeligiacuteicircntildeograveegrave ntildeoacuteugravearingntildeograveacircoacutethornugravearingeacute iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicirceacute ntildeegraventildeogravearingigraveucirc

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3

Acircecirceumlagraveauml Acircograveigrave2

ETHegraventilde 8 ETHagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicircaring acircicircccedilaumlaringeacutentildeograveacircegravearing aringntildeogravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteucircotilde egrave agraveiacuteograveethicirc-iumlicircatildearingiacuteiacuteucircotilde iumlethicircoumlaringntildentildeicircacirc 1 ndash acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc 2 ndash acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave iumlicircograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml 3 ndash agraveiacuteograveethicirciumlicircatildearingiacuteiacuteucirceacute iumlagraveethiacuteegraveecircicircacircucirceacute yacuteocircocircaringecircograve

Ntildeagraveigrave iumlicirc ntildearingaacutearing oacuteethicircacircaringiacuteuuml ndash19 aumlAacute iacutearing yumlacirceumlyumlaringograventildeyuml iacutearing-iumletharingicircaumlicirceumlegraveigraveucircigrave iumletharingiumlyumlograventildeograveacircegravearingigrave aumleumlyuml icircaacuteiacuteagraveethoacuteaeligaringiacuteegraveyuml (ecircagraveecirc ntildeacircegraveaumlaringogravearingeumluumlntildeograveacircoacutearingograve iacuteagraveiumlethegraveigravearingeth icirciumlucircograve ethagraveaumlegraveicircagraventildeograveethicirciacuteicircigraveegrave-dividearingntildeecircegraveotilde iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveeacute) iacuteicirc iumletharingaumluacuteyumlacirceumlyumlaringograve aumlicircntildeograveagraveograveicircdivideiacuteicirc acircucirc-ntildeicircecircegravearing ograveetharingaacuteicircacircagraveiacuteegraveyuml ecircagraveecirc ecirc agraveiumliumlagraveethagraveograveoacuteethiacuteucircigrave ograveagraveecirc egrave ecirc igravearing-ograveicircaumlegravedividearingntildeecircegraveigrave ntildeetharingaumlntildeograveacircagraveigrave icircaacuteiacuteagraveethoacuteaeligaringiacuteegraveyuml

Egrave iacuteagraveecircicirciacutearingouml iacutearingntildeecircicirceumluumlecircicirc ntildeeumlicircacirc icircaacute agraveiacuteograveethicirciumlicircatildearingiacuteiacuteicirceacute icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteicircntildeograveegrave ethicircntildeograveagrave ntildeicircaumlaringethaeligagraveiacuteegraveyuml NtildeIcirc2 acirc agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaring-etharing Ntildeagraveigraveucircaring yacuteeumlaringigravearingiacuteograveagraveethiacuteucircaring icircoumlaringiacuteecircegrave iumlicircethicircaeligaumlagravethornograve ntildearingethuumlaringccedil-iacuteucircaring ntildeicircigraveiacutearingiacuteegraveyuml acirc ograveagraveecircicirceacute icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteicircntildeograveegrave Agrave egraveigravearingiacuteiacuteicirc ndash acircntildearingatildeicirc NtildeIcirc2 acirc agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringetharing ndash 3 middot 1012 ograve

ndash egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegravearing ethagraventildeograveacircicircethegraveigraveicircntildeograveegrave NtildeIcirc2 acirc icircecircaringagraveiacutearing ntilde ethicirc-ntildeograveicircigrave ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc ndash 415 eumlm middot K

ndash etharingagraveecircoumlegraveyuml iacuteagrave egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegravearing ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc divideoacuteacircntildeograveacircegrave-ogravearingeumluumliacuteicircatildeicirc ntildeeumlicircyuml icircecircaringagraveiacuteagrave (igraveegraveiacuteegraveigraveagraveeumluumliacuteagraveyuml icircoumlaringiacuteecircagrave 30 igrave) ndash 9 middot 1011 ograveEcirc

4 Icirciumlograveegraveecircagrave agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc egrave icircecircaringagraveiacuteagrave sup1 12

Atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteagraveyuml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave iumlicircogravearingiacuteoumlegraveagraveeumluumliacuteagraveyuml ograveicircdivideiacuteicircntildeograveuuml egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml ntildeograveicircotildeagraventildeograveegravedividearingntildeecircegravearing acircicircccediligraveoacuteugravearingiacuteegraveyuml 1067

y = 00047x ndash 91674 R2 = 68

0

1855 1865 1875 1885 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 atilde

14

12

1 08 06

04

02

ndash02 ndash04

ndash06

y = 00045x ndash 80945 R2 = 64

1 ndash agraveiacuteicircigraveagraveeumlegraveegrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc 2 ndash acircucircegraveatildeethucircoslash acirc icircetheumlyumliacuteecircoacute

Ogravearingigrave

iumlaringethagrave

ograveoacuteethagrave

atildeeth

agraveauml

3 ndash ograveetharingiacuteauml agraveiacuteicircigraveagraveeumlegraveeacute atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc 4 ndash ograveetharingiacuteauml acircucircegraveatildeethucircoslashagrave acirc icircetheumlyumliacuteecircoacute

1

2 3

4

ETHegraventilde 4 Ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicircaumlicircacircucircotilde agraveiacuteicircigraveagraveeumlegraveeacute atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc (ntildeiumleumlicircoslashiacuteucircaring eumlegraveiacuteegraveegrave) egrave etharingccediloacuteeumluumlograveagraveograveucirc ntildeeumloacutedivideagraveeacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc acircagraveethuumlegraveethicirc- acircagraveiacuteegraveyuml atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc ntilde aringaeligaringatildeicircaumliacuteucircigrave oslashagraveatildeicircigrave 0066 Ecirc

Ograveethegraveacircegraveagraveeumluumliacuteucirceacute icircograveacircaringograve laquoYacuteograveicircograve atildeethagraveocircegraveecirc aumlicirceumlaeligaringiacute ntildeicircacirc-iumlagraveaumlagraveograveuuml ntilde icircntildeuumlthorn agraveaacutentildeoumlegraventildentilderaquo ndash ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve ntildeethagraveccediloacute icircograveacircaringethatildeiacuteoacuteograveuuml ecircagraveecirc ccedilagraveacircaringaumlicircigraveicirc iacutearingetharingagraveeumlegraventildeograveegravedivideiacuteucirceacute ograveagraveecirc ecircagraveecirc acirc ecirceumlegraveigraveagraveograveegrave-dividearingntildeecircicirceacute ntildeegraventildeogravearingigravearing Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave ethagraveccedilacircegraveacircagravearingograventildeyuml ccediliacuteagravedivideegraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicircaring divideegraventildeeumlicirc ntildeograveicircotildeagraventildeograveegravedividearingntildeecircegraveotilde iumlethicircoumlaringntildentildeicircacirc ntilde iacutearingegraveccedilaacutearingaeligiacuteicircntildeograveuumlthorn acircucircccedilucircacircagravethornugraveegraveotilde iacuteagraveeumlegravedivideegravearing ocirceumloacuteecircograveoacuteagraveoumlegraveeacute acirc ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicircaumlicircacircucircotilde ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyumlotilde atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc

Iumlicircaumldividearingethecirciacutearingigrave divideograveicirc etharingdivideuuml egraveaumlaringograve icirc ocirceumloacuteecircograveoacuteagraveoumlegraveyumlotilde egraveigravearingiacuteiacuteicirc ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveeacute atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc agrave iacutearing etharingccediloacuteeumluumlograveagraveograveicircacirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicircatildeicirc icircntildeetharingaumliacutearingiacuteegraveyuml aumlagraveiacuteiacuteucircotilde egraveccediligravearing-etharingiacuteegraveeacute ocirceumloacuteecircograveoacuteagraveoumlegraveegrave ecircicircograveicircethucircotilde ethagraventildentildeigraveagraveograveethegraveacircagraveeumlegraventildeuuml acirc iumletharing-aumlucircaumloacuteugravearingigrave ethagraveccedilaumlaringeumlaring Iacutearingecircicircograveicircethucircaring egraveccedil iumlethegravedivideegraveiacute ocirceumloacuteecircograveoacuteagrave-oumlegraveeacute atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc ethagraventildentildeigraveicircograveetharingiacuteucirc iacuteegraveaeligaring agrave iumlicircecircagrave aacuteoacuteaumlaringigrave egraventildeotildeicircaumlegraveograveuuml egraveccedil egraveiacuteograveoacuteegraveograveegraveacirciacuteicirc icircdividearingacircegraveaumliacuteicircatildeicirc iumletharingaumliumlicirceumlicircaeligaringiacuteegraveyuml icirc ntildeoacuteugravearingntildeograveacircicircacircagraveiacuteegraveegrave ograveagraveecircegraveotilde iumlethegravedivideegraveiacute Egraveccedil iacuteegraveaeligiacutearingeacute ecircethegraveacircicirceacute (ethegraventilde 4) ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc ethicircntildeograve atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc iumletharingaumlntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograventildeyuml iacutearingntildeicircigraveiacutearingiacuteiacuteucircigrave Yacuteograveicirc iumlicircaumlograveacircaringethaeligaumlagravethornograve egrave iumlethegraveacircaringaumlaringiacuteiacuteucircaring iacuteagrave ethegraventilde 4 oacuteethagraveacirciacutearingiacuteegraveyuml eumlegraveiacutearingeacuteiacuteicirceacute etharingatildeetharingntildentildeegraveegrave ethyumlaumlagrave agraveiacuteicircigraveagraveeumlegraveeacute iacuteagrave acircetharingigraveyuml egrave acircucircntildeicircecircegravearing ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml ecircicircyacuteocircocircegraveoumlegravearingiacuteograveagrave aumlaringogravearingethigraveegrave-iacuteagraveoumlegraveegrave iumlicirceumlicircaeligegraveogravearingeumluumliacuteucircotilde eumlegraveiacutearingeacuteiacuteucircotilde ograveetharingiacuteaumlicircacirc (R2) Icircauml-iacuteagraveecircicirc iacutearingecircicircograveicircethucircaring 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icircograve ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicirc ccedilagrave iumlaringethegraveicircauml 1960ndash2000 atildeatilde acircucircethagraveaeligaringiacuteiacuteicircaring acirc ntildeicircograveucircotilde aumlicirceumlyumlotilde atildeethagraveaumloacutentildeagrave)

timesegraventildeeumlaringiacuteiacuteicircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing ecircicircyacuteocircocircegraveoumlegravearingiacuteograveagrave ecircicircethetharingeumlyumloumlegraveegrave ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve ndash 50 iacuteicirc iacuteagraveaumlicirc egraveigravearingograveuuml acirc acircegraveaumloacute divideograveicirc acirceumlegraveyuml-iacuteegravearing OgraveOuml iacuteagrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute ntildeacircyumlccedilagraveiacuteicirc iacutearing ograveicirceumluumlecircicirc ntilde egraveotilde ecircicirceumlegravedividearingntildeograveacircicircigrave iacuteicirc egrave ntilde egraveiacuteaumlegraveacircegraveaumloacuteagraveeumluumliacuteucircigraveegrave ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave iumlagraveethagraveigravearingograveethicircacirc OgraveOuml

Ecirc ntildeicircaeligagraveeumlaringiacuteegravethorn iacuteagraveaumlaringaeligiacuteucircaring aumlagraveiacuteiacuteucircaring icirc divideegraventildeeumlaring egrave iumlagrave-ethagraveigravearingograveethagraveotilde OgraveOuml iumlicircyumlacircegraveeumlegraventildeuuml ograveicirceumluumlecircicirc iumlicircntildeeumlaring acirciacutearingaumletharingiacuteegraveyuml acirc icirciumlaringethagraveograveegraveacirciacuteoacutethorn iumlethagraveecircograveegraveecircoacute ecircicircntildeigraveegravedividearingntildeecircegraveotilde ntildeetharingaumlntildeograveacirc iacuteagrave-aacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml ogravearing iacuteagravedivideegraveiacuteagraveyuml ntilde 70-otilde atildeatilde XX acirc Aumleumlyuml aacuteicirceumlaringaring ethagraveiacuteiacutearingatildeicirc iumlaringethegraveicircaumlagrave otildeagraveethagraveecircogravearingethiacuteucirc iumlethicirciumloacutentildeecircegrave ccediliacuteagravedivideegraveogravearingeumluuml-iacuteicircatildeicirc divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml Icircoumlaringiacuteegraveigrave yacuteiacutearingethatildearingograveegravedividearingntildeecircegraveeacute acircecirceumlagraveauml acircagrave-ethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicircaumlicircacircicircatildeicirc divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml acirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute iumlicirc aumlagraveiacuteiacuteucircigrave ntildeagraveeacuteograveagrave AtildeIgraveOuml ETHicircntildeatildeegraveaumlethicircigravearingograveagrave [5] Iumlicirceumlagraveatildeagraveyuml ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn aumleumlegraveiacuteoacute ograveethagravearingecircograveicircethegraveegrave OgraveOuml ethagraveacirciacuteicirceacute 3 ograveucircntilde ecircigrave ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn oslashegraveethegraveiacuteoacute ndash 500 ecircigrave ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn atildeeumloacute-aacuteegraveiacuteoacute iumlaringetharingigravearingoslashegraveacircagraveiacuteegraveyuml acircicircaumlucirc ndash 300 igrave agrave ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn ogravearingigrave-iumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute icircotildeeumlagraveaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml ndash 2 Ecirc iumlicirceumloacutedivideegraveigrave divideograveicirc aumleumlyuml ecircicircigrave-iumlaringiacutentildeagraveoumlegraveegrave icircotildeeumlagraveaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml acircicircaumlucirc icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc ntildeetharingauml-iacuteegraveigrave OgraveOuml egraveccedil agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc aacuteoacuteaumlaringograve egraveccediluacuteyumlograveicirc sim 37 1021 Aumlaelig timesegraventildeeumlicirc OgraveOuml acircagraveethuumlegraveethoacutearingograventildeyuml atildeicircauml icircograve atildeicircaumlagrave (ccedilagrave iumlicircntildeeumlaringauml-iacuteegravearing 30 eumlaringograve XX acirc icirciacuteicirc ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumleumlicirc icircograve 61 aumlicirc 103) Yacuteigrave-iumlegraveethegravedividearingntildeecircicircaring ntildeetharingaumliacutearingaring ecircicirceumlegravedividearingntildeograveacircicirc OgraveOuml acirc atildeicircauml ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve 827 yacuteigraveiumlegraveethegravedividearingntildeecircicircaring NtildeEcircIcirc ndash 88 divideograveicirc otildeicircethicircoslashicirc ntildeicircatildeeumlagrave-ntildeoacutearingograventildeyuml ntilde ocircegraveccedilegravedividearingntildeecircegrave icircntildeigraveucircntildeeumlaringiacuteiacuteicirceacute atildeegraveiumlicircogravearingccedilicirceacute icirc iumloacuteagraventilde-ntildeicirciacuteicircacircntildeecircicirceacute iumlethegraveethicircaumlaring iumlicircograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml ( 827 91= ) Yacuteograveagrave atildeegraveiumlicircogravearingccedilagrave oacutentildeiumlaringoslashiacuteicirc acircucircaumlaringethaeligegraveacircagravearingograve egrave ntildeograveagraveiacuteaumlagraveethograveiacuteicircaring ogravearingntilde-ograveegraveethicircacircagraveiacuteegravearing [2] ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing ntildeograveagraveograveegraventildeograveegraveecircegrave 2

2χ ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve 22 iumlethegrave iumlicircethicircatildearing icircograveacircaringethaeligaringiacuteegraveyuml atildeegraveiumlicircogravearingccedilucirc 599 Egraveccedil acircucirc-oslasharingegraveccedileumlicircaeligaringiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc aringntildeogravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteucircaring (ogravearing iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing NtildeEcircIcirc ndash σ) acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave yacuteiacutearingethatildeegraveegrave oacuteotildeicircaumlyumlugravearingeacute egraveccedil agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc iacuteagrave ecircicircigraveiumlaringiacutentildeagraveoumlegravethorn iumlicircogravearingethuuml icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteucircotilde OgraveOuml ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlthornograve iumlethegraveigravearingethiacuteicirc 9 37 1021

= 33 1022 Aumlaelig Yacuteograveicirc yacuteecircacircegraveacircagraveeumlaringiacuteograveiacuteicirc 22 Acircograveigrave2 Egraveccedil ccedilagraveecircicirciacuteagrave NtildeogravearingocircagraveiacuteagravendashAacuteicirceumluumloumligraveagraveiacuteagrave ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc acircicircccediligraveoacuteugravearingiacuteegravethorn δP iumleumlicircograveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave igraveicircugraveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave iacuteagrave iumlicircacircaringethotildeiacuteicircntildeograveegrave Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave P ntildeicircicircograveacircaringograventildeograveacircoacutearingograve acircicircccediligraveoacuteugravearingiacuteegravearing yumlethecircicircntildeograveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc T

0

4 (1 )

PT T

P Aδ

δ =minus

(2)

atildeaumlaring P0 = 1368 Acircograveigrave2 ndash acirciacutearingagraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethiacuteagraveyuml iumleumlicircograveiacuteicircntildeograveuuml igraveicircugraveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave iumlicircograveicircecircagrave egraveccedileumloacutedividearingiacuteegraveyuml Ntildeicirceumliacuteoumlagrave A sim 30 ndashagraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave

Ntildeetharingaumliacutearingaring ccedilagrave atildeicircauml divideegraventildeeumlicirc OgraveOuml egrave EgraveAtildeOgrave (1971ndash2004 atildeatilde)

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Atildeicircaumlucirc iacuteagravedivideegraveiacuteagraveyuml ntilde 1970

timesegraventilde

eumlicirc Ograve

Ouml

ndash20

ndash10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Egraveiacuteaumlaring

ecircntilde atilde

eumlicircaacuteagrave

eumluumliacuteicirc

eacute ogravearing

igraveiumlaring

ethagraveograveoacute

ethucirc

1 ndash divideegraventildeeumlicirc OgraveOuml 3 ndash EgraveAtildeOgrave 2 ndash ograveetharingiacuteauml EgraveAtildeOgrave 4 ndash ograveetharingiacuteauml divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml

1

4

32

ETHegraventilde 6 Acirceumlegraveyumliacuteegravearing iumlicircograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml iacuteagrave EgraveAtildeOgrave

Atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteagraveyuml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave iumlicircogravearingiacuteoumlegraveagraveeumluumliacuteagraveyuml ograveicircdivideiacuteicircntildeograveuuml egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml ntildeograveicircotildeagraventildeograveegravedividearingntildeecircegravearing acircicircccediligraveoacuteugravearingiacuteegraveyuml 1069

Ntildeeumlaringaumlicircacircagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicirc iumloacuteagraventildentildeicirciacuteicircacircntildeecircegravearing ocirceumloacuteecircograveoacuteagraveoumlegraveegrave iumlicirc-ograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml aumlicirceumlaeligiacuteucirc acircucircccedilucircacircagraveograveuuml acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave yumlethecircicircntildeograveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing 014 Ecirc ogravearing acirc 2 ethagraveccedilagrave aacuteicirceumluumloslashegravearing dividearingigrave yacuteograveicirc aacuteucirceumlicirc egraventildeiumlicirceumluumlccedilicircacircagraveiacuteicirc acirc divideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteiacuteicircigrave yacuteecircntildeiumlaringethegraveigravearingiacuteogravearing (szligethecircicircntildeograveiacuteagraveyuml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave ntildeicircicircograve-acircaringograventildeograveacircoacutearingograve ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteetharing agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc iacuteagrave acircucircntildeicircogravearing sim 56 ecircigrave laquoiumlicircntildeetharingaumlegraveiacutearingraquo agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc) egrave aringaring acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave iumlicirc iumlicircethyumlaumlecircoacute acircaringeumlegravedivideegraveiacuteucirc aumlicirceumlaeligiacuteucirc ntildeicircicircograveacircaringograventildeograveacircicircacircagraveograveuuml acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveyumligrave iumlethegrave-ccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc Acircicirc acircntildeyumlecircicircigrave ntildeeumloacutedivideagravearing iumloacuteaacuteeumlegraveecircagrave-oumlegraveegrave icirc iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveegrave ograveetharingiacuteaumlicircacirc acircaringethograveegraveecircagraveeumluumliacuteicircatildeicirc atildeethagraveaumlegravearingiacuteograveagrave ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc acirc ograveethicirciumlicircntildeocircaringetharing agraveacircograveicircethagraveigrave iacutearingegraveccedilacircaringntildeograveiacuteucirc) Egraveccedil ntildeecircagraveccedilagraveiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc acirc divideagraventildeograveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc OgraveOuml iumletharingaumlntildeograveagraveacirc-eumlyumlthornograve ntildeicircaacuteicirceacute icircaumlegraveiacute egraveccedil igravearingotildeagraveiacuteegraveccediligraveicircacirc icircograveethegraveoumlagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicirceacute icircaacute-ethagraveograveiacuteicirceacute ntildeacircyumlccedilegrave ntildeograveagraveaacuteegraveeumlegraveccedilegraveethoacutethornugravearingeacute atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaring-ethagraveograveoacuteethoacute Acirc ntildeagraveigraveicircigrave aumlaringeumlaring OgraveOuml igraveicircatildeoacuteograve acircicircccediliacuteegraveecircagraveograveuuml eumlegraveoslashuuml iumlethegrave ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveegrave ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc agraveecircacircagraveograveicircethegraveegrave ge 300 Ecirc Oacuteacircaringeumlegravedividearingiacuteegravearing divideagraventildeograveicircograveucirc acircicircccediliacuteegraveecirciacuteicircacircaringiacuteegraveyuml ograveagraveecircegraveotilde agraveecircacircagraveograveicirc-ethegraveeacute iacutearingegraveccedilaacutearingaeligiacuteicircaring iumlethegrave ethicircntildeogravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacute-ethucirc iumlethegraveacircaringaumlaringograve ecirc ethicircntildeograveoacute divideagraventildeograveicircograveucirc iumlicircyumlacirceumlaringiacuteegraveyuml OgraveOuml divideograveicirc acirc ntildeacircicircthorn icircdividearingetharingaumluuml oacuteigravearingiacuteuumloslashegraveograve EgraveAtildeOgrave

Iumlethegraventildeograveoacuteiumlegraveigrave ogravearingiumlaringethuuml ecirc ethagraventildentildeigraveicircograveetharingiacuteegravethorn aumlethoacuteatildeicircatildeicirc acircicircccedil-igraveicircaeligiacuteicircatildeicirc igravearingotildeagraveiacuteegraveccediligraveagrave ethagraveiacuteaumlicircigraveegraveccedilagraveoumlegraveegrave EgraveAtildeOgrave Ecircagraveecirc egraveccedil-acircaringntildeograveiacuteicirc egraveccedil iumlethicircntildeogravearingeacuteoslashegraveotilde yacuteiacutearingethatildeicircaacuteagraveeumlagraveiacutentildeicircacircucircotilde igraveicircaumlaringeumlaringeacute ecirceumlegraveigraveagraveograveagrave egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute yumlethecircicircntildeograveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagrave-ograveoacuteethucirc T ntildeacircyumlccedilagraveiacuteicirc ntilde egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave iumlicirceumliacuteicircatildeicirc agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave A ntildeicircicircograveiacuteicircoslasharingiacuteegravearingigrave

4(1 )

dT TdA A

= minusminus

(3)

Icircograventildethornaumlagrave ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc iumlethegrave ntildeicircacircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteicircigrave ccediliacuteagravedividearing-iacuteegraveegrave A sim 30 egrave T sim 259 Ecirc egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc (ethagraveccediloacuteigravearingaringograventildeyuml ocircicircethigraveoacuteeumlagrave (3) icircograveiacuteicircntildeegraveograventildeyuml ecirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ethagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteetharing icircaumliacuteagraveecircicirc aumleumlyuml icircoumlaringiacuteicircecirc ethagraveccedileumlegravedivideegravearing igravearingaeligaumloacute egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluuml-iacuteucircotilde iumlethegraveccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute egrave ethagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteeth iacutearingntildeoacute-ugravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteicirc) iumlethegrave egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveegrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc iacuteagrave 1 ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacircegraveograve sim 09 Ecirc (iumlethegrave oacuteigravearingiacuteuumloslasharingiacuteegraveegrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave ethagraventilde-ogravearingograve) Ograveethagraveaumlegraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteucircigrave ntildeiumlicircntildeicircaacuteicircigrave egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc yumlacirceumlyumlaringograventildeyuml egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegravearing ntildeacircaringograveicircacircicircatildeicirc iumlicircograveicircecircagrave icircograve ccedilagraveogravearingigraveiacutearingiacute-iacuteicirceacute divideagraventildeograveegrave eumloacuteiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc aumlegraventildeecircagrave Yacuteograveegrave egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml aumlagravethornograve ntildeicirc-acircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteicircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing A = 2975 Icirciacuteegrave otildeicircethicircoslashicirc ntildeicirc-atildeeumlagraventildeoacutethornograventildeyuml ntilde egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave icircograveethagraveaeligagravearingigraveicircntildeograveegrave iumlethicircacircicircaumlegrave-igraveucircigraveegrave icircccedilicirciacuteicircigravearingograveethegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute agraveiumliumlagraveethagraveograveoacuteethicirceacute TOMS (ethegraventilde 7) ocircoacuteiacuteecircoumlegraveicirciacuteegraveethoacutethornugravearingeacute ntilde 1978 atilde (ntilde iacutearingaacuteicirceumluumloslashegraveigrave iumlaringetharingethucircacircicircigrave) iacuteagrave aacuteicircethograveagraveotilde EgraveNtildeCcedil Nimbus-7 Igravearingogravearingicirceth-3 egrave Earth Probe [6]

Ccedilicirciacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirc icircntildeetharingaumliacutearingiacuteiacuteucircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc (S65-N65)

22

28

30

34

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

Igraveicircaumlaringeumluuml (R2 = 88)

Icircecircograveyumlaacuteethuuml 1978ndash2004 atildeatilde

Egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml

Agraveeumluuml

aacutearingaumlicirc

ETHegraventilde 7 Atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicircaring agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc ndash igraveicircaumlaringeumluuml ntildearingccedilicirciacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc otildeicircaumlagrave egrave ntildeeumloacutedivideagraveeacuteiacuteagraveyuml ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlthornugraveagraveyuml

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icircograve ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicirc ccedilagrave iumlaringethegraveicircauml 1960ndash2000 atildeatilde acircucircethagraveaeligaringiacuteiacuteicircaring acirc ntildeicircograveucircotilde aumlicirceumlyumlotilde atildeethagraveaumloacutentildeagrave)

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Ecirc ntildeicircaeligagraveeumlaringiacuteegravethorn iacuteagraveaumlaringaeligiacuteucircaring aumlagraveiacuteiacuteucircaring icirc divideegraventildeeumlaring egrave iumlagrave-ethagraveigravearingograveethagraveotilde OgraveOuml iumlicircyumlacircegraveeumlegraventildeuuml ograveicirceumluumlecircicirc iumlicircntildeeumlaring acirciacutearingaumletharingiacuteegraveyuml acirc icirciumlaringethagraveograveegraveacirciacuteoacutethorn iumlethagraveecircograveegraveecircoacute ecircicircntildeigraveegravedividearingntildeecircegraveotilde ntildeetharingaumlntildeograveacirc iacuteagrave-aacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml ogravearing iacuteagravedivideegraveiacuteagraveyuml ntilde 70-otilde atildeatilde XX acirc Aumleumlyuml aacuteicirceumlaringaring ethagraveiacuteiacutearingatildeicirc iumlaringethegraveicircaumlagrave otildeagraveethagraveecircogravearingethiacuteucirc iumlethicirciumloacutentildeecircegrave ccediliacuteagravedivideegraveogravearingeumluuml-iacuteicircatildeicirc divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml Icircoumlaringiacuteegraveigrave yacuteiacutearingethatildearingograveegravedividearingntildeecircegraveeacute acircecirceumlagraveauml acircagrave-ethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave ntildeetharingaumliacutearingatildeicircaumlicircacircicircatildeicirc divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml acirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute iumlicirc aumlagraveiacuteiacuteucircigrave ntildeagraveeacuteograveagrave AtildeIgraveOuml ETHicircntildeatildeegraveaumlethicircigravearingograveagrave [5] Iumlicirceumlagraveatildeagraveyuml ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn aumleumlegraveiacuteoacute ograveethagravearingecircograveicircethegraveegrave OgraveOuml ethagraveacirciacuteicirceacute 3 ograveucircntilde ecircigrave ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn oslashegraveethegraveiacuteoacute ndash 500 ecircigrave ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn atildeeumloacute-aacuteegraveiacuteoacute iumlaringetharingigravearingoslashegraveacircagraveiacuteegraveyuml acircicircaumlucirc ndash 300 igrave agrave ntildeetharingaumliacutethornthorn ogravearingigrave-iumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethoacute icircotildeeumlagraveaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml ndash 2 Ecirc iumlicirceumloacutedivideegraveigrave divideograveicirc aumleumlyuml ecircicircigrave-iumlaringiacutentildeagraveoumlegraveegrave icircotildeeumlagraveaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveyuml acircicircaumlucirc icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc ntildeetharingauml-iacuteegraveigrave OgraveOuml egraveccedil agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc aacuteoacuteaumlaringograve egraveccediluacuteyumlograveicirc sim 37 1021 Aumlaelig timesegraventildeeumlicirc OgraveOuml acircagraveethuumlegraveethoacutearingograventildeyuml atildeicircauml icircograve atildeicircaumlagrave (ccedilagrave iumlicircntildeeumlaringauml-iacuteegravearing 30 eumlaringograve XX acirc icirciacuteicirc ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumleumlicirc icircograve 61 aumlicirc 103) Yacuteigrave-iumlegraveethegravedividearingntildeecircicircaring ntildeetharingaumliacutearingaring ecircicirceumlegravedividearingntildeograveacircicirc OgraveOuml acirc atildeicircauml ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve 827 yacuteigraveiumlegraveethegravedividearingntildeecircicircaring NtildeEcircIcirc ndash 88 divideograveicirc otildeicircethicircoslashicirc ntildeicircatildeeumlagrave-ntildeoacutearingograventildeyuml ntilde ocircegraveccedilegravedividearingntildeecircegrave icircntildeigraveucircntildeeumlaringiacuteiacuteicirceacute atildeegraveiumlicircogravearingccedilicirceacute icirc iumloacuteagraventilde-ntildeicirciacuteicircacircntildeecircicirceacute iumlethegraveethicircaumlaring iumlicircograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml ( 827 91= ) Yacuteograveagrave atildeegraveiumlicircogravearingccedilagrave oacutentildeiumlaringoslashiacuteicirc acircucircaumlaringethaeligegraveacircagravearingograve egrave ntildeograveagraveiacuteaumlagraveethograveiacuteicircaring ogravearingntilde-ograveegraveethicircacircagraveiacuteegravearing [2] ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing ntildeograveagraveograveegraventildeograveegraveecircegrave 2

2χ ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlaringograve 22 iumlethegrave iumlicircethicircatildearing icircograveacircaringethaeligaringiacuteegraveyuml atildeegraveiumlicircogravearingccedilucirc 599 Egraveccedil acircucirc-oslasharingegraveccedileumlicircaeligaringiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc aringntildeogravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteucircaring (ogravearing iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing NtildeEcircIcirc ndash σ) acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave yacuteiacutearingethatildeegraveegrave oacuteotildeicircaumlyumlugravearingeacute egraveccedil agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc iacuteagrave ecircicircigraveiumlaringiacutentildeagraveoumlegravethorn iumlicircogravearingethuuml icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteucircotilde OgraveOuml ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlthornograve iumlethegraveigravearingethiacuteicirc 9 37 1021

= 33 1022 Aumlaelig Yacuteograveicirc yacuteecircacircegraveacircagraveeumlaringiacuteograveiacuteicirc 22 Acircograveigrave2 Egraveccedil ccedilagraveecircicirciacuteagrave NtildeogravearingocircagraveiacuteagravendashAacuteicirceumluumloumligraveagraveiacuteagrave ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc acircicircccediligraveoacuteugravearingiacuteegravethorn δP iumleumlicircograveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave igraveicircugraveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave iacuteagrave iumlicircacircaringethotildeiacuteicircntildeograveegrave Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave P ntildeicircicircograveacircaringograventildeograveacircoacutearingograve acircicircccediligraveoacuteugravearingiacuteegravearing yumlethecircicircntildeograveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc T

0

4 (1 )

PT T

P Aδ

δ =minus

(2)

atildeaumlaring P0 = 1368 Acircograveigrave2 ndash acirciacutearingagraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethiacuteagraveyuml iumleumlicircograveiacuteicircntildeograveuuml igraveicircugraveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave iumlicircograveicircecircagrave egraveccedileumloacutedividearingiacuteegraveyuml Ntildeicirceumliacuteoumlagrave A sim 30 ndashagraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave

Ntildeetharingaumliacutearingaring ccedilagrave atildeicircauml divideegraventildeeumlicirc OgraveOuml egrave EgraveAtildeOgrave (1971ndash2004 atildeatilde)

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Atildeicircaumlucirc iacuteagravedivideegraveiacuteagraveyuml ntilde 1970

timesegraventilde

eumlicirc Ograve

Ouml

ndash20

ndash10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Egraveiacuteaumlaring

ecircntilde atilde

eumlicircaacuteagrave

eumluumliacuteicirc

eacute ogravearing

igraveiumlaring

ethagraveograveoacute

ethucirc

1 ndash divideegraventildeeumlicirc OgraveOuml 3 ndash EgraveAtildeOgrave 2 ndash ograveetharingiacuteauml EgraveAtildeOgrave 4 ndash ograveetharingiacuteauml divideegraventildeeumlagrave OgraveOuml

1

4

32

ETHegraventilde 6 Acirceumlegraveyumliacuteegravearing iumlicircograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml iacuteagrave EgraveAtildeOgrave

Atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteagraveyuml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave iumlicircogravearingiacuteoumlegraveagraveeumluumliacuteagraveyuml ograveicircdivideiacuteicircntildeograveuuml egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml ntildeograveicircotildeagraventildeograveegravedividearingntildeecircegravearing acircicircccediligraveoacuteugravearingiacuteegraveyuml 1069

Ntildeeumlaringaumlicircacircagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicirc iumloacuteagraventildentildeicirciacuteicircacircntildeecircegravearing ocirceumloacuteecircograveoacuteagraveoumlegraveegrave iumlicirc-ograveicircecircagrave OgraveOuml aumlicirceumlaeligiacuteucirc acircucircccedilucircacircagraveograveuuml acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave yumlethecircicircntildeograveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing 014 Ecirc ogravearing acirc 2 ethagraveccedilagrave aacuteicirceumluumloslashegravearing dividearingigrave yacuteograveicirc aacuteucirceumlicirc egraventildeiumlicirceumluumlccedilicircacircagraveiacuteicirc acirc divideegraventildeeumlaringiacuteiacuteicircigrave yacuteecircntildeiumlaringethegraveigravearingiacuteogravearing (szligethecircicircntildeograveiacuteagraveyuml ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave ntildeicircicircograve-acircaringograventildeograveacircoacutearingograve ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteetharing agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc iacuteagrave acircucircntildeicircogravearing sim 56 ecircigrave laquoiumlicircntildeetharingaumlegraveiacutearingraquo agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc) egrave aringaring acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave iumlicirc iumlicircethyumlaumlecircoacute acircaringeumlegravedivideegraveiacuteucirc aumlicirceumlaeligiacuteucirc ntildeicircicircograveacircaringograventildeograveacircicircacircagraveograveuuml acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveyumligrave iumlethegrave-ccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc Acircicirc acircntildeyumlecircicircigrave ntildeeumloacutedivideagravearing iumloacuteaacuteeumlegraveecircagrave-oumlegraveegrave icirc iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlaringiacuteegraveegrave ograveetharingiacuteaumlicircacirc acircaringethograveegraveecircagraveeumluumliacuteicircatildeicirc atildeethagraveaumlegravearingiacuteograveagrave ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc acirc ograveethicirciumlicircntildeocircaringetharing agraveacircograveicircethagraveigrave iacutearingegraveccedilacircaringntildeograveiacuteucirc) Egraveccedil ntildeecircagraveccedilagraveiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc acirc divideagraventildeograveiacuteicircntildeograveegrave ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc OgraveOuml iumletharingaumlntildeograveagraveacirc-eumlyumlthornograve ntildeicircaacuteicirceacute icircaumlegraveiacute egraveccedil igravearingotildeagraveiacuteegraveccediligraveicircacirc icircograveethegraveoumlagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicirceacute icircaacute-ethagraveograveiacuteicirceacute ntildeacircyumlccedilegrave ntildeograveagraveaacuteegraveeumlegraveccedilegraveethoacutethornugravearingeacute atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteoacutethorn ogravearingigraveiumlaring-ethagraveograveoacuteethoacute Acirc ntildeagraveigraveicircigrave aumlaringeumlaring OgraveOuml igraveicircatildeoacuteograve acircicircccediliacuteegraveecircagraveograveuuml eumlegraveoslashuuml iumlethegrave ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveegrave ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc agraveecircacircagraveograveicircethegraveegrave ge 300 Ecirc Oacuteacircaringeumlegravedividearingiacuteegravearing divideagraventildeograveicircograveucirc acircicircccediliacuteegraveecirciacuteicircacircaringiacuteegraveyuml ograveagraveecircegraveotilde agraveecircacircagraveograveicirc-ethegraveeacute iacutearingegraveccedilaacutearingaeligiacuteicircaring iumlethegrave ethicircntildeogravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacute-ethucirc iumlethegraveacircaringaumlaringograve ecirc ethicircntildeograveoacute divideagraventildeograveicircograveucirc iumlicircyumlacirceumlaringiacuteegraveyuml OgraveOuml divideograveicirc acirc ntildeacircicircthorn icircdividearingetharingaumluuml oacuteigravearingiacuteuumloslashegraveograve EgraveAtildeOgrave

Iumlethegraventildeograveoacuteiumlegraveigrave ogravearingiumlaringethuuml ecirc ethagraventildentildeigraveicircograveetharingiacuteegravethorn aumlethoacuteatildeicircatildeicirc acircicircccedil-igraveicircaeligiacuteicircatildeicirc igravearingotildeagraveiacuteegraveccediligraveagrave ethagraveiacuteaumlicircigraveegraveccedilagraveoumlegraveegrave EgraveAtildeOgrave Ecircagraveecirc egraveccedil-acircaringntildeograveiacuteicirc egraveccedil iumlethicircntildeogravearingeacuteoslashegraveotilde yacuteiacutearingethatildeicircaacuteagraveeumlagraveiacutentildeicircacircucircotilde igraveicircaumlaringeumlaringeacute ecirceumlegraveigraveagraveograveagrave egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute yumlethecircicircntildeograveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagrave-ograveoacuteethucirc T ntildeacircyumlccedilagraveiacuteicirc ntilde egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave iumlicirceumliacuteicircatildeicirc agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave A ntildeicircicircograveiacuteicircoslasharingiacuteegravearingigrave

4(1 )

dT TdA A

= minusminus

(3)

Icircograventildethornaumlagrave ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc iumlethegrave ntildeicircacircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteicircigrave ccediliacuteagravedividearing-iacuteegraveegrave A sim 30 egrave T sim 259 Ecirc egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc (ethagraveccediloacuteigravearingaringograventildeyuml ocircicircethigraveoacuteeumlagrave (3) icircograveiacuteicircntildeegraveograventildeyuml ecirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ethagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteetharing icircaumliacuteagraveecircicirc aumleumlyuml icircoumlaringiacuteicircecirc ethagraveccedileumlegravedivideegravearing igravearingaeligaumloacute egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluuml-iacuteucircotilde iumlethegraveccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute egrave ethagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteeth iacutearingntildeoacute-ugravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteicirc) iumlethegrave egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveegrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc iacuteagrave 1 ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacircegraveograve sim 09 Ecirc (iumlethegrave oacuteigravearingiacuteuumloslasharingiacuteegraveegrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave ethagraventilde-ogravearingograve) Ograveethagraveaumlegraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteucircigrave ntildeiumlicircntildeicircaacuteicircigrave egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc yumlacirceumlyumlaringograventildeyuml egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegravearing ntildeacircaringograveicircacircicircatildeicirc iumlicircograveicircecircagrave icircograve ccedilagraveogravearingigraveiacutearingiacute-iacuteicirceacute divideagraventildeograveegrave eumloacuteiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc aumlegraventildeecircagrave Yacuteograveegrave egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml aumlagravethornograve ntildeicirc-acircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteicircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing A = 2975 Icirciacuteegrave otildeicircethicircoslashicirc ntildeicirc-atildeeumlagraventildeoacutethornograventildeyuml ntilde egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave icircograveethagraveaeligagravearingigraveicircntildeograveegrave iumlethicircacircicircaumlegrave-igraveucircigraveegrave icircccedilicirciacuteicircigravearingograveethegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute agraveiumliumlagraveethagraveograveoacuteethicirceacute TOMS (ethegraventilde 7) ocircoacuteiacuteecircoumlegraveicirciacuteegraveethoacutethornugravearingeacute ntilde 1978 atilde (ntilde iacutearingaacuteicirceumluumloslashegraveigrave iumlaringetharingethucircacircicircigrave) iacuteagrave aacuteicircethograveagraveotilde EgraveNtildeCcedil Nimbus-7 Igravearingogravearingicirceth-3 egrave Earth Probe [6]

Ccedilicirciacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirc icircntildeetharingaumliacutearingiacuteiacuteucircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc (S65-N65)

22

28

30

34

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

Igraveicircaumlaringeumluuml (R2 = 88)

Icircecircograveyumlaacuteethuuml 1978ndash2004 atildeatilde

Egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml

Agraveeumluuml

aacutearingaumlicirc

ETHegraventilde 7 Atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicircaring agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc ndash igraveicircaumlaringeumluuml ntildearingccedilicirciacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc otildeicircaumlagrave egrave ntildeeumloacutedivideagraveeacuteiacuteagraveyuml ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlthornugraveagraveyuml

Ntildeetharingaumliacutearingaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing icircograveethagraveaeligagravearingigraveicircntildeograveegrave ccedilagrave yacuteograveegrave atildeicircaumlucirc ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacircegraveeumlicirc 301 NtildeEcircIcirc ntildearingccedilicirciacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc otildeicircaumlagrave sim 18 NtildeEcircIcirc ntildeograveicircotildeagraventildeograveegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlthornugravearingeacute (ntilde oacutedividearingograveicircigrave ethagraventildeotildeicircaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveeacute

VII egrave VIII acircaringethntildeegraveeacute TOMS) iacutearing igravearingiacutearingaring 03 Icircograveigravearingograveegraveigrave divideograveicirc NtildeEcircIcirc igravearingaeligatildeicircaumlicircacircucircotilde acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveeacute 03 yacuteecircacircegraveacircagraveeumlaringiacuteograveiacuteicirc NtildeEcircIcirc igravearingaeligatildeicircaumlicircacircucircotilde acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveeacute ethagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc acirciacutearingoslashiacutearing-atildeicirc acircicircccedilaumlaringeacutentildeograveacircegraveyuml sim 14 ecircAcircograveigrave2

03 asymp 42 Acircograveigrave2 Egraveccedil (2) ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc yacuteograveicirc aumlicirceumlaeligiacuteicirc iumlethegraveacircicircaumlegraveograveuuml ecirc ntildeograveicircotildeagraventildeograveegravedividearing-ntildeecircegraveigrave acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveyumligrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc sim 025 Ecirc (egraveigravearingiacuteiacuteicirc ograveagraveecircegraveigrave icircecircagraveccedilagraveeumlicircntildeuuml NtildeEcircIcirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagrave-ograveoacuteethucirc acirc ethyumlaumloacute [1])

Aringntildeogravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteicirc acircicircccediliacuteegraveecircagravearingograve acircicirciumlethicircntilde iumlicircdividearingigraveoacute iumlicirceumliacuteicircaring NtildeEcircIcirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc icircograveiacuteicircntildeegraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicirc iacutearingacircaring-eumlegraveecircicirc (iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing acircecirceumlagraveaumlagrave eumlegraveoslashuuml icircaumliacuteicirceacute egraveccedil igraveiacuteicircatildeegraveotilde iumlethegrave-divideegraveiacute) Aumlaringeumlicirc iumlicirc-acircegraveaumlegraveigraveicircigraveoacute acirc ograveicircigrave divideograveicirc acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveegrave EgraveAtildeOgrave ntildeegraveeumluumliacuteicirc aumlaringigraveiumlocircegraveethoacutethornograventildeyuml icircograveethegraveoumlagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteucircigraveegrave icircaacuteethagraveograveiacuteucircigraveegrave ntildeacircyumlccedilyumligraveegrave acirc ecirceumlegraveigraveagraveograveegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute ntildeegraventildeogravearingigravearing Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave ecircicircograveicircethucircaring ethagraveccediloacuteigravearingaringograventildeyuml aumlagraveeumlaringecircicirc iacutearing egraventildedividearingethiumlucircacircagravethornograventildeyuml ograveicirceacute iacuteagrave ecircicircograveicirc-ethoacutethorn aacuteucirceumlicirc oacuteecircagraveccedilagraveiacuteicirc acircucircoslasharing

Acirc ccedilagraveecirceumlthorndividearingiacuteegravearing ntildeethagraveacirciacuteegraveigrave acircecirceumlagraveauml acirc yacuteiacutearingethatildearingograveegravedividearingntildeecircegraveeacute aacuteagraveeumlagraveiacutentilde aringntildeogravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteucircotilde acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveeacute iumlagraveethagraveigravearingograveethicircacirc ecirceumlegraveigraveagrave-ograveegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute ntildeegraventildeogravearingigraveucirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave (iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing 25 NtildeEcircIcirc) egrave icircaacuteoacutentildeeumlicircacirceumlaringiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc agraveiacuteograveethicirciumlicircatildearingiacuteiacuteucircigraveegrave acircucircaacuteethicircntildeagraveigraveegrave iumlagraveeth-iacuteegraveecircicircacircicircatildeicirc yacuteocircocircaringecircograveagrave [1] Yacuteograveegrave acircecirceumlagraveaumlucirc egraveccedilicircaacuteethagraveaeligaringiacuteucirc iacuteagrave ethegraventilde 8 egraveccedil ecircicircograveicircethicircatildeicirc ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc icircaacuteiacuteagraveethoacuteaeligaringiacuteegravearing agraveiacute-ograveethicirciumlicircatildearingiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc acircicircccedilaumlaringeacutentildeograveacircegraveyuml iacuteagrave EgraveAtildeOgrave iumlicirc ntildeagraveigraveucircigrave icirciumlograveegrave-igraveegraventildeograveegravedivideiacuteucircigrave icircoumlaringiacuteecircagraveigrave iumlethegraveotildeicircaumlegraveograventildeyuml acircaringntildeograveegrave acirc oacutentildeeumlicircacircegraveyumlotilde ntildeicircicircograveiacuteicircoslasharingiacuteegraveyuml ntildeegraveatildeiacuteagraveeuml-oslashoacuteigrave iacuteagrave oacuteethicircacirciacutearing ndash 19 aumlAacute Iumlicirc-acircegraveaumlegraveigraveicircigraveoacute yacuteograveagrave ccedilagraveaumlagravedivideagrave iumletharingacircicircntildeotildeicircaumlegraveograve acircicircccediligraveicircaeligiacuteicircntildeograveegrave ntildeoacuteugravearingntildeograveacircoacutethornugravearingeacute iacuteagraveaacuteeumlthornaumlagraveogravearingeumluumliacuteicirceacute ntildeegraventildeogravearingigraveucirc

0

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4 Icirciumlograveegraveecircagrave agraveograveigraveicircntildeocircaringethucirc egrave icircecircaringagraveiacuteagrave sup1 12

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Iumlethegraventildeograveoacuteiumlegraveigrave ogravearingiumlaringethuuml ecirc ethagraventildentildeigraveicircograveetharingiacuteegravethorn aumlethoacuteatildeicircatildeicirc acircicircccedil-igraveicircaeligiacuteicircatildeicirc igravearingotildeagraveiacuteegraveccediligraveagrave ethagraveiacuteaumlicircigraveegraveccedilagraveoumlegraveegrave EgraveAtildeOgrave Ecircagraveecirc egraveccedil-acircaringntildeograveiacuteicirc egraveccedil iumlethicircntildeogravearingeacuteoslashegraveotilde yacuteiacutearingethatildeicircaacuteagraveeumlagraveiacutentildeicircacircucircotilde igraveicircaumlaringeumlaringeacute ecirceumlegraveigraveagraveograveagrave egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute yumlethecircicircntildeograveiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagrave-ograveoacuteethucirc T ntildeacircyumlccedilagraveiacuteicirc ntilde egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave iumlicirceumliacuteicircatildeicirc agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc Ccedilaringigraveeumlegrave A ntildeicircicircograveiacuteicircoslasharingiacuteegravearingigrave

4(1 )

dT TdA A

= minusminus

(3)

Icircograventildethornaumlagrave ntildeeumlaringaumloacutearingograve divideograveicirc iumlethegrave ntildeicircacircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteicircigrave ccediliacuteagravedividearing-iacuteegraveegrave A sim 30 egrave T sim 259 Ecirc egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegravearing atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethucirc (ethagraveccediloacuteigravearingaringograventildeyuml ocircicircethigraveoacuteeumlagrave (3) icircograveiacuteicircntildeegraveograventildeyuml ecirc atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirceacute ethagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteetharing icircaumliacuteagraveecircicirc aumleumlyuml icircoumlaringiacuteicircecirc ethagraveccedileumlegravedivideegravearing igravearingaeligaumloacute egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave atildeeumlicircaacuteagraveeumluuml-iacuteucircotilde iumlethegraveccedilaringigraveiacuteicirceacute egrave ethagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicirceacute ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteeth iacutearingntildeoacute-ugravearingntildeograveacircaringiacuteiacuteicirc) iumlethegrave egraveccediligravearingiacutearingiacuteegraveegrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc iacuteagrave 1 ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacircegraveograve sim 09 Ecirc (iumlethegrave oacuteigravearingiacuteuumloslasharingiacuteegraveegrave agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc ogravearingigraveiumlaringethagraveograveoacuteethagrave ethagraventilde-ogravearingograve) Ograveethagraveaumlegraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteucircigrave ntildeiumlicircntildeicircaacuteicircigrave egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc yumlacirceumlyumlaringograventildeyuml egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegravearing ntildeacircaringograveicircacircicircatildeicirc iumlicircograveicircecircagrave icircograve ccedilagraveogravearingigraveiacutearingiacute-iacuteicirceacute divideagraventildeograveegrave eumloacuteiacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc aumlegraventildeecircagrave Yacuteograveegrave egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml aumlagravethornograve ntildeicirc-acircetharingigravearingiacuteiacuteicircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing A = 2975 Icirciacuteegrave otildeicircethicircoslashicirc ntildeicirc-atildeeumlagraventildeoacutethornograventildeyuml ntilde egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyumligraveegrave icircograveethagraveaeligagravearingigraveicircntildeograveegrave iumlethicircacircicircaumlegrave-igraveucircigraveegrave icircccedilicirciacuteicircigravearingograveethegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute agraveiumliumlagraveethagraveograveoacuteethicirceacute TOMS (ethegraventilde 7) ocircoacuteiacuteecircoumlegraveicirciacuteegraveethoacutethornugravearingeacute ntilde 1978 atilde (ntilde iacutearingaacuteicirceumluumloslashegraveigrave iumlaringetharingethucircacircicircigrave) iacuteagrave aacuteicircethograveagraveotilde EgraveNtildeCcedil Nimbus-7 Igravearingogravearingicirceth-3 egrave Earth Probe [6]

Ccedilicirciacuteagraveeumluumliacuteicirc icircntildeetharingaumliacutearingiacuteiacuteucircaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegraveyuml agraveeumluumlaacutearingaumlicirc (S65-N65)

22

28

30

34

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002

Igraveicircaumlaringeumluuml (R2 = 88)

Icircecircograveyumlaacuteethuuml 1978ndash2004 atildeatilde

Egraveccediligravearingetharingiacuteegraveyuml

Agraveeumluuml

aacutearingaumlicirc

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Ntildeetharingaumliacutearingaring ccediliacuteagravedividearingiacuteegravearing icircograveethagraveaeligagravearingigraveicircntildeograveegrave ccedilagrave yacuteograveegrave atildeicircaumlucirc ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacircegraveeumlicirc 301 NtildeEcircIcirc ntildearingccedilicirciacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc otildeicircaumlagrave sim 18 NtildeEcircIcirc ntildeograveicircotildeagraventildeograveegravedividearingntildeecircicirceacute ntildeicircntildeograveagraveacirceumlyumlthornugravearingeacute (ntilde oacutedividearingograveicircigrave ethagraventildeotildeicircaeligaumlaringiacuteegraveeacute

VII egrave VIII acircaringethntildeegraveeacute TOMS) iacutearing igravearingiacutearingaring 03 Icircograveigravearingograveegraveigrave divideograveicirc NtildeEcircIcirc igravearingaeligatildeicircaumlicircacircucircotilde acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveeacute 03 yacuteecircacircegraveacircagraveeumlaringiacuteograveiacuteicirc NtildeEcircIcirc igravearingaeligatildeicircaumlicircacircucircotilde acircagraveethegraveagraveoumlegraveeacute ethagraveaumlegraveagraveoumlegraveicirciacuteiacuteicircatildeicirc acirciacutearingoslashiacutearing-atildeicirc acircicircccedilaumlaringeacutentildeograveacircegraveyuml sim 14 ecircAcircograveigrave2

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120 80 40 0

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R2 = 48

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 atilde

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1 Third Assessment Report Climate Change 2001

(httpwwwipccch) 2 Hudson DJ Lectures on elementary statistics and

probability Geneva 1964 242 p 3 Ocircaringeumleumlaringeth Acirc Acircacircaringaumlaringiacuteegravearing acirc ogravearingicircethegravethorn acircaringethicircyumlograveiacuteicircntildeogravearingeacute egrave aringaring iumlethegrave-

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5 httphmchydrometru 6 httpwwwgissnasagovupdategistemp

GM Kruchenitskii Global temperature Potential measurement accuracy stochastic disturbances and long-term variations

Within the framework of scientific background of Kyoto Protocol the following issues are considered what is the possible accuracy of determining the mean annual global temperature using the means currently available on the world network what kind of fluctuations can global temperature undergo if not subjected to any anthropogenic factors what is the relationship between global temperature changes caused by observable changes in atmospheric greenhouses gases content and its natural stochastic variability how will the climatic system feedback affect long-term changes in global temperature

It is demonstrated that the low coverage of the globe by surface temperature measurements prevents reli-able detection of the long-term changes of its global values at a 04 K per century or higher level Stochastic factors of global temperature variability are quite likely to result in random trends at a 04 K per century or higher level An energy equivalent of the stochastic factors of global temperature variability by not less than an order of magnitude exceeds that of the anthropogenic contribution caused by greenhouse gases emission to the Earthrsquos energy balance Carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere is not the cause but rather the effect of the global temperature growth which in turn results either from purely random variations in the factors govern-ing the Earthrsquos radiation balance or from long-term variation of the global temperature index