Post on 06-Oct-2020
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
World Energy Outlook 2004World Energy Outlook 2004Claude Mandil
Executive DirectorInternational Energy Agency
International Energy Symposium, IEEJInternational Energy Symposium, IEEJTokyoTokyo
16 November 200416 November 2004
Global Energy Trends: Reference Scenario
World Primary Energy Demand
Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix, while oil remains the leading fuel
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
eOil
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear powerHydro power
Other renewables
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
eOil
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear powerHydro power
Other renewables
Regional Shares in World Primary Energy Demand
Two-thirds of the increase in world demand between 2002 and 2030 comes from developing countries, especially in Asia
38%
52%
10%
OECD Transition economies Developing countries
43%
9%
48%
2002 2030
10 200 Mtoe 16 325 Mtoe
38%
52%
10%
OECD Transition economies Developing countries
43%
9%
48%
2002 2030
10 200 Mtoe 16 325 Mtoe
Increase in World Primary Energy Production by Region
Almost all the increase in production to 2030 occurs outside the OECD, up from less than 70% in 1971-2002
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
1971-2002 2002-2030
Mto
e
OECD Transition economies Developing countries
31%
10%
59%
3%12%
85%share of total increase (%)
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
1971-2002 2002-2030
Mto
e
OECD Transition economies Developing countries
31%
10%
59%
3%12%
85%share of total increase (%)
Inter-Regional Trade in World Fossil-Fuel Supply
Energy trade between regions more than doubles by 2030, most of it still in the form of oil
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
Mto
e
2002 2030 2002 2030 2002 2030
Domestic consumption Traded between regions
Oil CoalGas
14%
15%46%
63%
15%
26%
Trade as % of world demand
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
Mto
e
2002 2030 2002 2030 2002 2030
Domestic consumption Traded between regions
Oil CoalGas
14%
15%46%
63%
15%
26%
Trade as % of world demand
Oil Flows & Major Chokepoints: The “Dire Straits”
The risk of an oil-supply disruption will grow as trade & flows through key maritime & pipeline chokepoints expand
Cumulative Energy Investment, 2003-2030
Power sector absorbs 62% of global energy investment in the period 2003-2030
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD Pacific
Transition economies
China
Other Asia
Middle East
Africa
Latin America
billion $ (2000)
Coal Oil Gas Electricity
Growth in World Energy Demand & CO2Emissions
Average carbon content of primary energy increases slightly through 2030 – in contrast to past trends
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
1971-2002 2002-2030
aver
age
annu
al g
row
th ra
te
Primary energy demand Emissions
CO2 Emissions, 1971-2030
CO2 emissions will increase fastest in developing countries, overtaking OECD in the 2020s
0
4 000
8 000
12 000
16 000
20 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt o
f CO
2
OECD Transition economies Developing countries
Asia-Pacific Energy Trends: Reference Scenario
China’s share of Incremental World Production & Energy Demand, 1998-
2003
Booming industrial production in China is driving up energy demand & emissions - and energy prices
0 20 40 60 80
CO2 emissions
Electricity demand
Primary coal demand
Primary oil demand
Ethylene production*
Cement production
Crude steel production
GDP
per cent
2
0 20 40 60 80
CO2 emissions
Electricity demand
Primary coal demand
Primary oil demand
Ethylene production*
Cement production
Crude steel production
GDP
per cent
2
Share of Developing Asia in World Incremental Energy Demand
Developing Asia will account for 42% of the increase in demand through 2030, compared with 34% in the last three decades
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1971-2002 2002-2030
per c
ent
Primary energy demand Coal Oil Gas Electricity consumption
China Oil Supply Balance
China’s oil imports will soar from around 2 mb/d now to almost 10 mb/d in 2030 – equal to over 74% of domestic demand
0
3
6
9
12
15
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
mb/
d
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Production Demand Imports as % of demand (right axis)
OECD Asia Energy Trends: Reference Scenario
Primary Fuel Mix in Japan & Korea2002 2030
721 Mtoe 956 Mtoe
Increased use of gas & nuclear for power generation reduces the share of oil & coal in the primary fuel mix
Oil50%
Gas12%
Coal20%
Hydro1%Nuclear
15%
Renewables2%
Nuclear18%
Gas18%
Renewables4%
Hydro1%
Oil41%
Coal18%
Primary Gas Demand in Japan & Korea
Power generation underpins surging gas use in both Japan & Korea
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990 2002 2010 2020 2030
bcm
Japan Korea
Change in Electricity Generation by Fuel in Japan & Korea
Most new power-generation capacity is gas-fired or nuclear
-150
-50
50
150
250
350
450
1971-2002 2002-2030
TWh
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Other renewables
Increase in Energy-Related CO2Emissions by Sector in Japan & Korea
Most of the projected increase in emissions comes from power generation & transport in almost equal measure
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990-2002 2002-2030
Mt o
f CO
2
Power generation Industry Transport Other
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990-2002 2002-2030
Mt o
f CO
2
Power generation Industry Transport Other
Asia-Pacific Energy Trends: Alternative Policy Scenario
Japan & Korea CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios
With new policies, Japan & Korea stabilise their emissions in the 2010s and drive them back down to 2002 levels by 2030
1 200
1 300
1 400
1 500
1 600
1 700
1 800
1 900
2 000
2 100
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt o
f CO
2
Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario
1 200
1 300
1 400
1 500
1 600
1 700
1 800
1 900
2 000
2 100
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt o
f CO
2
Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario
China CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios
With new policies, China could curb its CO2 emissions by 18% in 2030
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt o
f CO
2
Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt o
f CO
2
Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction Alternative vs Reference Scenario
2002-2030
Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
49%
10%
21%
12%
8%
OECD
63%
1%
21%
15%
Transition economies
67%
7%
17%
5%4%
Developing countries
58%
World
End-use efficiency gains
7%
Fuel switching in end uses
20%
Increased renewables in power generation
10%
Increased nuclear in power generation
5%
Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation
Summary & Conclusions
Summary & Conclusions (1)On current policies, world energy needs will be almost 60% higher in 2030 than nowEnergy resources are more than adequate to meet demand until 2030 & well beyondBut projected market trends raise serious concerns:
Increased vulnerability to supply disruptions Rising CO2 emissions Huge energy-investment needsPersistent energy poverty
More vigorous policies would curb rate of increase in energy demand & emissions significantlyBut a truly sustainable energy system will call for faster technology development & deploymentUrgent & decisive government action is needed
Summary & Conclusions (2)
Asia’s importance to world energy markets – and its share in CO2 emissions - will continue to grow
Most of the region’s incremental demand & emissions will come from developing Asia – notably China & IndiaEnergy demand will grow much more slowly in Japan & Korea
Net imports of oil & gas – and reliance on key chokepoints - will continue to grow New policies would reverse the rising emissions trend in OECD Asia, but not in developing Asia