Germany energy outlook

GermanyCloser Look

Germany Energy Overview

Other 26 TWhs

Solar PV 38 TWhs

Wind 88 TWhs

Hydro 19 TWhs

Nuclear 92 TWhs

Dom. Waste 6 TWhs

Biomass 44 TWhs

Natural gas 60 TWhs

Oil 5 TWhs

Hard coal 118 TWhs

Lignite 155 TWhs

Germany electricity mix 2015 by source in TWhs

Other 4 %

Solar PV 6 %

Wind 14 %

Hydro 3 %

Nuclear 14 %

Dom. Waste 1 %

Biomass 7 %

Natural gas 9 %

Oil 1 %

Hard coal 18 %

Lignite 24 %

Germany electricity mix 2015 by source in %

Non-fossil 48 % Fossil

52 %

Germany electricity mix 2015 by type in %

Clean 38 %

Combustion 62 %


Other 4 %Nuclear

14 %

RE Combustion 8 %

RE Clean 22 %

Fossil 52 %


Solar 20 %

Wind 45 %

Hydro 10 %

Waste 3 %

Biomass 23 %

Germany RE electricity mix 2015 by type in %

RE Clean 74 %

RE combustion 26 %

Germany RE electricity mix 2015 by type in %

Tera

wat

thou

rs

0

100

200

300

400

Fossil RE Combustion Clean

Nat gas

Oil

Hard coal

Lignite

Solar PV

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Waste Solar PV

Wind

Hydro

Waste Biomass

Nat gas Oil

Hard Coal

Lignite

Germany electricity mix 2015 by type TWhs

Germany clean electricity 2001-2015Te

raw

atth

ours

0

60

120

180

240

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2015 was the first year that RE (wind) added significant net clean

energy to the grid

With further nuclear closures scheduled in the coming years and RE installation speeds decreasing, it is unlikely that clean energy will grow significantly.

German electricity exports/imports 2001-2015Te

raw

atth

ours

ann

ually

-15

0

15

30

45

60

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1 -1

8 7 9

20 1923

1418

6

23

34 36

52

Exports (+) and imports (-)

The dynamics of Energiewende and nuclear production lost due to panic after Fukushima accident in 2011

Germany nuclear electricity 2001-2015Te

raw

atth

ours

0

45

90

135

180

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Energiewende starts, early shutdown of nuclear fleet negotiated

Fukushima nuclear accident

Germany nuclear electricity 2001-2023Te

raw

atth

ours

0

45

90

135

180

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Energiewende starts, early shutdown of nuclear fleet negotiated

Fukushima nuclear accident

Current planned shutdowns

Germany renewable electricity 2001-2015Te

raw

atth

ours

0

22,5

45

67,5

90

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hydro Wind Solar PV Biomass Waste

Renewables have mainly replaced nuclear…Te

raw

atth

ours

0

45

90

135

180

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hydro Wind Solar PV Biomass Waste Nuclear

… and not so much coal…Te

raw

atth

ours

0

100

200

300

400

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hydro Wind Solar PV Biomass Waste NuclearTotal coal

293 TWhs 273 TWhs

… With natural gas increasing slightly…Te

raw

atth

ours

0

100

200

300

400

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hydro Wind Solar PV Biomass WasteNuclear Total coal Natural gas

273 TWhs293 TWhs

56 TWhs 60 TWhs

Actually, total burning (including gas, oil, bio and waste) has increased by 7.8 %

Tera

wat

thou

rs

0

125

250

375

500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hydro Wind Solar PV Biomass WasteNuclear Total coal Total burning

Germany clean electricity by source 2001-2015Te

raw

atth

ours

0

60

120

180

240

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV

Germany fossil electricity by source 2001-2015Te

raw

atth

ours

0

100

200

300

400

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Lignite Hard coal Oil Natural gas

Germany fossil electricity by source 2001-2015Te

raw

atth

ours

0

100

200

300

400

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Lignite Hard coal Oil Natural gas

Since Energiewende started, Germany fossil fuel use in electricity production has dropped by less than 5 %.

A drop of ~0.3% per year

Germany combustion-based electricity by source 2001-2015Te

raw

atth

ours

0

125

250

375

500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Lignite Hard coal Oil Natural gas Biomass Waste

Since Energiewende started, Germany has increased burning by almost 8 %.

An increase of ~0.5% per year.

Germany’s nuclear fleet produced around 165 TWhs annually between 1996-2006

And 140 TWhs annually between 2007 and 2010, dropping to under 100 TWhs after 2011

Since Fukushima, Germany has lost 40+ TWhs of clean energy each year due to panic closures in 2011

This energy, or the renewables that have been built to replace it, could have replaced coal-based production in

Germany and its neighbouring countries.

With further early closures coming, this number will only grow.

Germany nuclear electricity generation 2016-2050 with current, 40 year, 50 year and 60 year lifetime scenarios

Tera

wat

thou

rs

0

40

80

120

160

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049

Current shutdowns 40 year lifetime 50 year lifetime60 year lifetime

~700 TWhs clean

energy lost

~2100 TWhs clean energy lost

compared to 50 year lifetime

~3500 TWhs clean energy lost

compared to 60 year lifetime

Germany Emissions Overview

According to IPCC (2014), the median emissions for different energy sources are as follows:

Coal

Natural gas

Biomass

Large-scale solar

Household solar PV

Hydro

Off-shore wind

Nuclear

On-shore wind

0 225 450 675 900

11

12

12

24

41

48

230

490

820

gCO2-eqv/kWh

According to IPCC (2014), the median emissions for different energy sources are as follows:

Coal

German grid 2015

Natural gas

Biomass

Large-scale solar

Household solar PV

Hydro

Off-shore wind

Nuclear

On-shore wind

0 225 450 675 900

11121224

4148

230490

510820

gCO2-eqv/kWh

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

German grid average emissions gCO2-eqv/kWh between 2001-2015

Average emissions balance has decreased by ~10 % in 14 years,

or less than 0.7 % per year

Data: UNFCCC v17

German energy sector total emissions annually between 2001-2013

Milli

on to

ns C

O2-

eqv

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Energy sector has decreased emissions by 9 % in 12 years

Data: UNFCCC v17

German electricity & heat sector emissions annually between 2001-2013

Milli

on to

ns C

O2-

eqv

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Electricity and heat sector has increased

emissions by 1 % in 12 years

Data: UNFCCC v17

If Germany aims to reach its goal of 40 % reductions by 2020, it would need to

reduce its overall emissions by more than three percent each year.

This will be hard, even if the nuclear power already shut down would start up again. With more nuclear closures, it is a

practical impossibility.

Emissions dynamics due to Energiewende

Annual additional emissions due to Fukushima panic-closures

0

10

20

30

40

Million tons CO2eqv Million cars (250gCO/km, 16 000km/year)

8

32,3

5

20

2015 grid average 510 gCO2-eqv/kwhCoal median 820 gCO2-eqv/kWh (IPCC2014) Cars @ 4 tons CO2/year

Nuclear 12 gCO/year (IPCC2014)

With 40, 50 and 60 year lifetime, how much emissions nuclear fleet would save compared to current

shutdown-plans, from 2016 forward?M

illion

tons

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

40-year lifetime 50-year lifetime 60-year lifetime

3 003

1 795

586

1 858

1 111

365

2015 grid average 510 gCO2-eqv/kwhCoal median 820 gCO2-eqv/kWh (IPCC2014) Cars @ 4 tons CO2/year

Nuclear 12 gCO/year (IPCC2014)

Annual CO2-savings of nuclear fleet with 40 years operation between 2016-2050 compared to current shutdowns

Milli

on to

ns C

O2-

eqv

0

20

40

60

80

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049

Grid average 510gCO-eqv/kWh Coal average 820gCO-eqv/kWh


Milli

on to

ns C

O2-

eqv

0

35

70

105

140

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049


Health consequences of Energiewende nuclear

shutdown

0

1250

2500

3750

5000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Historical rate Low estimate High estimate

Annual mortality prevented by nuclear compared to burning coal 1990 - 2015

Total mortality prevented with nuclear between 1990 - 2015 compared to burning coal

0

27500

55000

82500

110000

41 604

18 757

108 888

Historical rate Low estimate High estimate

Total mortality prevented with German nuclear between 1990 - 2015 compared to burning coal -

and Chernobyl all time estimated mortality

0

30000

60000

90000

120000

4 000

41 604

18 757

108 888

Historical rate Low estimateHigh estimate Chernobyl all time

0

12500

25000

37500

50000

40 year lifetime 50 year lifetime 60 year lifetime

45 466

29 127

7 929

20 498

13 132

3 575

Low estimate High estimate

Total mortality prevented with nuclear between 2016-2050 compared to burning coal

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049

40 year - low 40 year - high50 year - low 50 year - high60 year - low 60 year - high

Annual mortality prevented with nuclear between 2016-2050 compared to burning coal

Economic Factors

Euro

cent

s/kW

h

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EEG surcharge included in electricity bills, used for paying renewable tariffs, per kWh

Billio

n eu

ros

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total EEG surcharge collected per year in billion euros

Estimates

Euro

s

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total EEG surcharge collected per year per person in euros

Estimate

Cumulative EEG surcharge collected, billion euros Estimates

Billio

n Eu

ros

0

45

90

135

180

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Cumulative EEG surcharge collected per person, euros

Estimate

Euro

s

0

450

900

1350

1800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hypothetically, what would have happened, if the EEG collected was instead used to build new nuclear capacity?

Simplified calculation: 1) Assuming annual collected money would translate to a certain amount of nuclear capacity by the end of that year,

although normally it would take several years to build a whole reactor, although several could be built at once

2) Assuming a fixed cost of 6 billion euros per gigawatt

Note that EEG currently will be collected to pay for existing production, while in this case it would be collected to build

new production annually.

Hypothetical cumulative new nuclear capacity built with EEG surcharge collected @ 6000 Meuros / GW

0

7,5

15

22,5

30

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Cum

ulat

ive

GW

of n

ucle

ar c

apac

ity b

uilt

0

7,5

15

22,5

30

TWhs

/ ye

ar

0

50

100

150

200

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Annual energy production Cumulative capacity built

Hypothetical cumulative new nuclear capacity built with EEG surcharge collected @ 6000 Meuros / GW

and annual production of that capacity

What if Germany had used EEG-money to build nuclear? 24 billion / year equals 4 GW of nuclear capacity at 6 billion / GW, or 30 TWh/

year, decarbonising almost 8 % of the current, dirty power production per year.

TWhs

/ ye

ar

0

300

600

900

1200

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049

By 2033 new nuclear alone would have decarbonised the whole

gridBy 2025, in combination with

current clean energy production of 237 TWhs, new nuclear would

have decarbonised the grid.

If Germany was to start now, add 15-20 years to schedule.

Germany energy outlook

Environment

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