Post on 27-Mar-2015
WHAT WOULD BE THE WHAT WOULD BE THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ASSUMING NO, OR CHANGE ASSUMING NO, OR SOME, OR MUCH EMISSIONS SOME, OR MUCH EMISSIONS CONTROL AND CONTROL AND SEQUESTRATION?SEQUESTRATION?
Martin parryMartin parry
Co-Chair, Working Group II,Co-Chair, Working Group II,
IPCCIPCC
Global mean temperature predictionsGlobal mean temperature predictions
Ensembles of four predictions of global mean temperature resulting Ensembles of four predictions of global mean temperature resulting from ‘business as usual’ changes in greenhouse gases following on from ‘business as usual’ changes in greenhouse gases following on from observed changes since 1860 (orange curves). The addition of from observed changes since 1860 (orange curves). The addition of sulphate aerosol cooling is shown in the red curves.sulphate aerosol cooling is shown in the red curves.
Te
mp
era
ture
(°
C)
Year
13
14
15
16
17
18
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Global mean precipitation predictionsGlobal mean precipitation predictions
Ensembles of four predictions of precipitation (rainfall and snowfall) resulting Ensembles of four predictions of precipitation (rainfall and snowfall) resulting from ‘business as usual’ changes in greenhouse gases following on from from ‘business as usual’ changes in greenhouse gases following on from observed changes since 1860 (blue curves). The addition of sulphate aerosol observed changes since 1860 (blue curves). The addition of sulphate aerosol cooling is shown in the green curves.cooling is shown in the green curves.
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
–21860
8
6
4
2
0
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
To
tal p
reci
pita
tion
(%
ch
an
ge
)
Change in annual temperatures for the 2050sChange in annual temperatures for the 2050s
The change in annual temperatures for the 2050s compared with the present day, The change in annual temperatures for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about a 1% increase per year in COequivalent to about a 1% increase per year in CO22. The picture shows the average . The picture shows the average of four model runs with different starting conditions. of four model runs with different starting conditions.
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Observed change in annual precipitation for the 2050sObserved change in annual precipitation for the 2050s
The change in annual precipitation for the 2050s compared with The change in annual precipitation for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model is driven with an the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about a 1% increase per year in COa 1% increase per year in CO22. The picture shows the average . The picture shows the average of four model runs with different starting conditions.of four model runs with different starting conditions.
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
IMPACTS UNDER NO IMPACTS UNDER NO MITIGATIONMITIGATION
Annual runoffAnnual runoff
Percentage change in 30-year average annual runoff by the 2080s.Percentage change in 30-year average annual runoff by the 2080s.
University of Southampton
Population under extreme water stressPopulation under extreme water stress
Change, due to climate change, in the number of people living in Change, due to climate change, in the number of people living in countries with extreme water stress.countries with extreme water stress.
0
40
80
120
2020s 2050s 2080s
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
ns)
University of Southampton
Crop yield change 2020s, )
2050s,2080s
2020s 2050s 2080s
% c
hang
e in
pric
es fr
om 1
990
base
line
10
8
6
4
2
0
–22020s 2080s 2020s 2080s
40004200
38003600340032003000280026002400
2050s 2050s
Cer
eal p
rodu
ctio
n (m
mt)
Referencescenario
Climate changescenario
2020s 2050s 2080sAdd
ition
al m
illio
ns o
f peo
ple
atris
k of
hun
ger
50454035302520151050
Additional people at risk of hunger under the climate change scenario (0 = Projected reference case).
Projected global cereal production for reference case and the climate change scenario.
Percentage change in global cereal prices under the climate change scenario (0 = Projected reference case).
People at risk from sea-level risePeople at risk from sea-level rise
Percentage change in the number of people at risk under the sea-level rise Percentage change in the number of people at risk under the sea-level rise
scenario and constant (1990s) protection (left bar) and the sea-level rise scenario and constant (1990s) protection (left bar) and the sea-level rise
scenario and evolving protection (right bar).scenario and evolving protection (right bar).
2050s2020s 2080s
700
400
500
600
100
300
200
0
% in
crea
se
Middlesex University / Delft Hydraulics
IMPACTS UNDER IMPACTS UNDER SOME/MUCH SOME/MUCH MITIGATIONMITIGATION
Emissions and concentrations of COEmissions and concentrations of CO22 from from unmitigated and stabilising emission scenariosunmitigated and stabilising emission scenarios
Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation
10
5
0
15
20
An
thro
po
gen
ic C
O2
em
issi
on
s (G
tC/y
r)
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350 C
O c
on
cen
trat
ion
(p
pm
)2
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
3502000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 2350
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Global average temperature rise from unmitigated Global average temperature rise from unmitigated and stabilising emission scenariosand stabilising emission scenarios
1900 2000 2100 2200
0
2
4
Glo
bal
tem
per
atu
re c
han
ge
(°C
)
3
1
Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Temperature riseTemperature riseAnnual average, from the present day to the Annual average, from the present day to the 2080s2080s
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
cUnmitigated Emissions
c
c Stabilisation of CO2 at 550ppm
Stabilisation of CO2 at 750ppm
Change in precipitationChange in precipitationAnnual average, from the present day to the Annual average, from the present day to the 2080s2080s
cUnmitigated Emissions
c
c Stabilisation of CO2 at 550ppm
Stabilisation of CO2 at 750ppm
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Changes in river runoff Changes in river runoff from the present day to the 2080sfrom the present day to the 2080s
Unmitigated emissions
Stabilisation of CO2 at 750 ppm Stabilisation of CO2 at 550 ppm
–75 –50 –25 –5 to 5 25 50 75Change in annual runoff (%)
University of Southampton
Changes in water stress Changes in water stress from the present day to the 2080sfrom the present day to the 2080s
01 12 23 34 4
Billions of people
Increased water stressDecreased water stress
University of Southampton
Unmitigated Emissions 750 ppm Stabilisation 550 ppm Stabilisation
Changes in crop yieldChanges in crop yieldfrom the present day to the 2080sfrom the present day to the 2080s
Unmitigated emissions
Stabilisation of CO2 at 750 ppm Stabilisation of CO2 at 550 ppm
University of East Anglia
Potential change in cereal yields (%)
10 – 5
0 – -2.5
-5 – -10-2.5 – -5
-10 – -20
2.5 – 05 – 2.5
No data
Global number of people floodedGlobal number of people floodedunder three emissions scenariosunder three emissions scenarios
100
80
60
40
20
0
Peo
ple
flo
od
ed (
mill
ion
s/ye
ar)
2020s 2050s 2080s
Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation
University of Middlesex
No climate change
People flooded by regionPeople flooded by region60
0
10
20
30
40
50
Southern Mediterranean
West Africa East Africa South Asia SE Asia
Peo
ple
flo
od
ed (
mill
ion
s/ye
ar)
Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation No climate change
University of Middlesex
Island people floodedIsland people flooded600
500
400
300
200
100
0Caribbean Indian Ocean
small islandsPacific small islands
Peo
ple
flo
od
ed (
tho
usa
nd
s/ye
ar)
University of Middlesex
Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation No climate change
Malaria transmission Malaria transmission Change in duration of season, 2080sChange in duration of season, 2080s
Unmitigated emissions
Stabilisation at 750 ppm Stabilisation at 550 ppm
2 to 5 months 1 to 2 months –2 to –1 months –5 to –2 months
London School of Hygiene and
Tropical Medicine
Millions at Risk in the 2080sMillions at Risk in the 2080s
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25Temperature Increase
Ad
dit
ion
al
mil
lio
ns
of
pe
op
le a
t ri
sk o
f h
un
ge
r, m
ala
ria
a
nd
co
ast
al
flo
od
ing
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25
Ad
dit
ion
al
mil
lio
ns
of
pe
op
le a
t ri
sk o
f in
cre
ase
d
wa
ter
sho
rta
ge Risk of water shortage
Risk of malaria
Risk of hunger
Risk of coastal flooding
Legend
Sta
b.
550
Sta
b.
650
Un
mit
iga
ted
em
issi
on
s -
IS92
a
Sta
b.
450
Sta
b.
750
Sta
b.
1000
The Cost of Stabilising COThe Cost of Stabilising CO22 Concentrations Concentrations
The effect of different global The effect of different global economic pathwayseconomic pathways
Regional enterprise: high Regional enterprise: high pop, mod. growth, (A2)pop, mod. growth, (A2)
Local stewardship: ‘semi’-Local stewardship: ‘semi’-sustainable dev, low pop sustainable dev, low pop
(B2)(B2)
A2 in 2050s B2A2 in 2050s B2
• Pop 11.3 billionPop 11.3 billion
• GDP 82 tr $GDP 82 tr $
• primary energy primary energy 970 GJ/yr970 GJ/yr
• carbon 16 GtC/yrcarbon 16 GtC/yr
• Pop 9.3 billionPop 9.3 billion
• GDP 110 tr $GDP 110 tr $
• primary energy primary energy 870 GJ/yr870 GJ/yr
• carbon 11 GtC/yrcarbon 11 GtC/yr
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2020 2050 2080
Ad
dit
ion
al M
illio
ns
of
Peo
ple
A2 - Regional Enterprise B2 - Local Stewardship
Additional People at Risk of Hunger under the SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios
Costs of 550 Stabilisation Costs of 550 Stabilisation assuming different development assuming different development pathwayspathways
($trillion)
Global Non-ann 1 Annex 1
A2 3 - 6 2 - 4 1 - 2
B2 2 - 4 2 - 3 c. 1
Conclusions : Conclusions :
• Stabn at 750 does not avoid most Stabn at 750 does not avoid most effects. effects.
• Stabn at 550 does, but at Stabn at 550 does, but at considerable cost (= c.20 times considerable cost (= c.20 times Kyoto reductions).Kyoto reductions).
• Sustainable development (cf SRES B2 Sustainable development (cf SRES B2 pathway) needs also to be part of the pathway) needs also to be part of the ‘solution’‘solution’
-200
-180
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
2020 2050 2080
Mill
ion
Met
ric
To
nn
es (
mm
t)
A2 - Regional Enterprise B2 - Local Stewardship
The Shortfall in Global Cereal Production for Reference Case and the SRES Scenarios
Millions at Risk in the 2050sMillions at Risk in the 2050s
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25
Temperature Increase
Ad
dit
ion
al
mil
lio
ns
of
pe
op
le a
t ri
sk o
f h
un
ge
r, m
ala
ria
a
nd
co
ast
al
flo
od
ing
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25
Ad
dit
ion
al
mil
lio
ns
of
pe
op
le a
t ri
sk o
f in
cre
ase
d
wa
ter
sho
rta
ge
Sta
bil
isa
tio
n@
550
pp
mv
Sta
bil
isa
tio
n@
750
pp
mv
Un
mit
iga
ted
em
issi
on
s -
IS92
a
Risk of water shortage
Risk of malaria
Risk of hunger
Risk of coastal flooding
Legend
Conclusions : 2Conclusions : 2
• Invest in adaptation, to increase resilience Invest in adaptation, to increase resilience to climate change: technology (eg GM), to climate change: technology (eg GM), engineering (eg water use efficiency), engineering (eg water use efficiency), institutions. These are ‘win-win’ (eg institutions. These are ‘win-win’ (eg drought-proofing).drought-proofing).
• Invest especially in key vulnerable regions Invest especially in key vulnerable regions and sectors: Africa, Indian subcont., small and sectors: Africa, Indian subcont., small islands; water, food, coastal settlement.islands; water, food, coastal settlement.
• Revise the adaptation/mitigation emphasis:Revise the adaptation/mitigation emphasis:
Change in vegetation biomassChange in vegetation biomassfrom present day to the 2230sfrom present day to the 2230s
–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8kgC/m2
ITE Edinburgh
c Stabilisation of CO2 at 550ppm
Stabilisation of CO2 at 750ppm
c
Vegetation diebackVegetation dieback5
1
2
3
4
02000 21002050 2150 2200 2250
Are
a o
f ve
get
atio
n d
ieb
ack
(mill
ion
km
2)
Years
Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation
ITE Edinburgh
Uptake of carbon by vegetationUptake of carbon by vegetation
Sink
Source
5
4
3
2
1
0
–1
–2
–31950 20502000 2100 2150 2200 2250
Tra
nsf
er o
f ca
rbo
n t
o v
eget
atio
n (
GtC
/yr)
Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation
ITE Edinburgh
Changes in vegetation biomassChanges in vegetation biomassbetween the present day and the 2080sbetween the present day and the 2080s
–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8
kgC/m2
–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8
kgC/m2
–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8
kgC/m2
0 0.1 1 3 5 10 15kgC/m2
ITE Edinburgh
Unmitigated EmissionPresent Day
Stabilisation of CO2 at 750 ppm Stabilisation of CO2 at 550 ppm
Changes in river runoffChanges in river runofffrom the present day to the 2230sfrom the present day to the 2230s
–75 –50 –25 –5 to 5 25 50 75Change in annual runoff (%)
University of Southampton
c Stabilisation of CO2 at 550ppm
Stabilisation of CO2 at 750ppm
c
Changes in water stressChanges in water stressfrom the present day to the 2080sfrom the present day to the 2080s
Unmitigated emissions
Stabilisation of CO2 at 750 ppm Stabilisation of CO2 at 550 ppm
Stressed country with decrease in stress
Country moves to stressed class
Stressed country with increase in stress
University of Southampton
Conclusions : 3Conclusions : 3
• Foster adaptation to avoid increased Foster adaptation to avoid increased inequality (autonomous adaptn=more inequality (autonomous adaptn=more unequal effects of climate change).unequal effects of climate change).
• Foster increased resilience (especially in Foster increased resilience (especially in the ‘tail’): a) seek the sub-optimal (eg the ‘tail’): a) seek the sub-optimal (eg drought resistant/non-max yield crop drought resistant/non-max yield crop varieties); b) (many) small vs (few) varieties); b) (many) small vs (few) large actions; c) promote stability (vs large actions; c) promote stability (vs growth?).growth?).
Rate of sea-level riseRate of sea-level rise
60
40
20
0 1990 2020s 2050s 2080s 2110s 2140s 2170s 2200s 2230s
Rat
e o
f se
a-le
vel r
ise
(cm
/cen
tury
)
Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation
Global wetland lossesGlobal wetland losses
20
15
10
5
02020s 2050s 2080s 2110s 2140s 2170s 2200s 2230s
Fra
ctio
n o
f w
etla
nd
are
a lo
st (
%)
Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation
University of Middlesex
Coastal floodingCoastal floodingChange from the present day to the 2080sChange from the present day to the 2080s
Unmitigated emissions
Stabilisation at 750 ppm Stabilisation at 550 ppm
University of Middlesex
Malaria transmission seasonMalaria transmission seasonEstimated for the present day (Estimated for the present day (falciparumfalciparum))
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
People at risk of malaria additionally People at risk of malaria additionally from climate changefrom climate change
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
02020s 2050s 2080s
Ad
dit
ion
al p
eop
le a
t ri
sk (
mill
ion
s)
Unmitigated emissions 750 ppm stabilisation 550 ppm stabilisation
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine