Post on 16-Feb-2016
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Trends in the Global Cotton Market: Where Does Africa Stand?
Dr. Alejandro Plastina , EconomistInternational Cotton Advisory Committee
11th Congress of A.C.A. - Lomé, Togo - March 22, 2013
Past Trends in Cotton Production
1950/51
1951/52
1952/53
1953/54
1954/55
1955/56
1956/57
1957/58
1958/59
1959/60
1960/61
1961/62
1962/63
1963/64
1964/65
1965/66
1966/67
1967/68
1968/69
1969/70
1970/71
1971/72
1972/73
1973/74
1974/75
1975/76
1976/77
1977/78
1978/79
1979/80
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09, est.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
0
10,000
20,000
30,00025,948.9
23,286.6
Million tons
World Cotton Production and Mill Use
Production
Mill Use
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
1,635.3
Cotton Production in Africa
Production
Share of World ProductionMillion tons
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%4,828.0
Cotton Area in Africa
AreaShare of World Area
Million hectares
World Average Yield (rainfed + irrigated)
80/81
81/82
82/83
83/84
84/85
85/86
86/87
87/88
88/89
89/90
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
339
Kg/ha762
576
Africa: Avg. 362
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
0.0
400.0
800.0
1,200.01,007.2
437.0
123.7
Francophone Africa
North Africa
Africa: Cotton Production by Region
Million tons
East and Southern Africa
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
0.00
900.00
1,800.00
2,700.00Francophone Africa
North Africa
Africa: Cotton Area by RegionMillion hectares
East and Southern Africa
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
0
400
800
1,200
Francophone Africa
North Africa
Africa: Yields by RegionKilograms of lint per hectare
East and Southern Africa
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
323.4
Cotton Mill Use in Africa
Mill Use
Share of World Mill Use
Million tons
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
0
1,000
2,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1,388.2
Cotton Exports in Africa
Exports
Share of World ExportsMillion tons
Future Trends in Cotton Supply and Use
80/81
81/82
82/83
83/84
84/85
85/86
86/87
87/88
88/89
89/90
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
21/22
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000Million Hectares
World Cotton Area
Technological Changes in Agriculture
• Mechanization• Synthetic fertilizers• Insecticides• Herbicides• Biotechnology• ?
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
19/20
20/21
400
500
600
700
800
Average World YieldKg/ha
80/81
81/82
82/83
83/84
84/85
85/86
86/87
87/88
88/89
89/90
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19
19/20
20/21
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000Million Tons
World Cotton Production
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
2013/14, for
2014/15, for
2015/16, for
2016/17, for
2017/18, for
2018/19, for
2019/20, for
2020/21
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cotton Area in AfricaMillion hectares
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07, est.
2007/08, for.
2008/09, for.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
2013/14, for
2014/15, for
2015/16, for
2016/17, for
2017/18, for
2018/19, for
2019/20, for
2020/21
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cotton Production in AfricaMillion tons
African Cotton: Buyers Perceptions
Positives:High QualityFewer Neps
Negatives:ContaminatedDeclining AvailabilityDifficult LogisticsHand classed
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
05
101520253035
25
27
30
34Million Tons
World Consumption of New Cotton Textiles
Share of Africa in World Consumption of New Cotton
Textiles
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
0
100
200
300
400
500Thousand Tons
Africa Consumption of New Cotton Textiles
Domestic production or imported?
African Cotton Sector: other issues
Yarn production: China ASEAN Africa?
Global futures contract: FOB African port?
Second hand clothing?
Can problems be solved? CFC/ICAC Project on Sudan cotton stickiness. $95 million extra revenue 1997-2009
Thank you for you attention
www.icac.org
Short Term Forecasts
Growth in World Cotton Mill Use
-15%-10%-5%0%5%
10%15%
2% 3% 1%10%
6% 6%0%
-11%
7%
-4% -7% 2% 2%
Growth in World GDP
20012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%2.3%
2.9%3.6%
4.9% 4.6% 5.3%5.4%2.8%
-0.7%
5.1% 3.9%3.2% 3.5%
4.1%
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09, est.
2009/10, for.
2010/11
2011/12, for.
2012/13, for.
2013/14, for
0
10,000
20,000
30,00025,948.9
23,202.2
23,286.6
24,015.7
Million tons
World Cotton Production and Mill Use
Production
Mill Use
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
100008,289.6
4,706.6
2,336.01,325.0 896.9 800.0 740.3
7,875.1
5,177.3
2,546.3
1,378.0 896.9 880.0 740.3
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Cotton Mill Use by Country
Million tons
0
2000
4000
6000
8000 7,300.0
5,610.0
3,703.5
2,092.51,300.01,000.0
5,844.0 5,594.5
2,533.61,951.7
1,038.9 999.7 756.0 457.11,479.0
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Cotton Production by CountryMillion tons
USA India Aust. Brazil Uzbk. Africa0
1,000
2,000
3,000 2,776.0
877.91,100.0
642.0 571.7
1,388.2
2,333.3
781.4 738.2463.3
917.5
1,520.7
11/12 12/13 13/14
Cotton Exports by CountryMillion tons
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
02000400060008000
10000China Rest of the World
World Cotton ImportsMillion tons
Cotton Imports by Country
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2,996.4
850.8 747.3 507.9 526.7 369.7
2,003.2
877.3 927.9501.7 452.0 351.6
11/12 12/13 13/14
Million tons
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8China RoW SMU SMU WLC
World ending stocks and stocks-to-use ratio
Stocks-to-use ratioMillion tons
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
World Cotton Ending Stocks
Million tons Stocks to use ratio
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/140
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
3,585.1 2,687.6 2,086.56,181.0 8,167.9 8,120.0
8,356.55,988.6 7,518.4
7,882.18,729.6 7,340.9
China World less China
Location of Global Cotton Stocks
Million tons
China’s Share of Global Cotton Stocks(10-year avge to 10/11: 28%)
30% 31% 22% 44% 48% 53%
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/130
200
400
600
800
Extra-Fine
Extra-fine CottonThousand tons
1.9% 1.9% 1.9%2.3%
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/120
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000 Organic
Organic and Fairtrade
Fairtrade
CmiA
BCI
Identity CottonsThousand tons
1.0% 1.4% 1.3%
2.2%
Share of World Total1.8%
DIRECT ASSISTANCE TO COTTONAND PRICES
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
0
2
4
6
8
40.0
110.0
180.0165
1.00
Billion US$ A Index (US$/lb)
WORLD PRODUCTION UNDER DIRECT ASSISTANCE
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
Without Assistance With Assistance
48%
Million Tons
Average With Assistance: 53% 84% 49%
ChinaUSA
Turkey EUMali
Colombia
Cote D'Ivoire
Burkina Faso
Senegal0
1
2
32.22
0.820.43 0.36
0.04 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00
2010/11 2011/12Billion US$
DIRECT ASSISTANCE TO COTTON
SpainGreece
ColombiaTurkey
ChinaUSA
Cote d'Ivore Mali
Senegal
Burkina Faso0.0
0.5
1.0
0.68
0.44
0.26 0.260.14 0.11 0.11 0.09 0.03 0.01
2010/11 2011/12US$/lb
DIRECT ASSISTANCE TO COTTON