July 2011, special issue on cotton in Africa -...

COMMODITIES AT A GLANCECOMMODITIES AT A GLANCE

«« Special issue on Cotton in Africa Special issue on Cotton in Africa »»

NN°°2 2 -- July 2011July 2011

UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT

Printed at United Nations, Geneva–GE.11-51099–June 2011–250–UNCTAD/SUC/2011/2



NN°°2 2 -- July 2011July 2011


2

UNCTAD/SUC/2011/2

NoteNote

IINNTTRROODDUUCCTTIIOONN This issue of Commodities at a Glance has been prepared by the Special Unit on Commodities(SUC) of UNCTAD. This quarterly publication aims to collect, present and disseminate accurate andrelevant statistical information linked to international primary commodity markets in a clear, concise and friendly format. Given the recent record rises in cotton prices and wider commodity price volatility, this edition of Commodities at a glance (n°2), will focus on the world cotton industry, with a special emphasis on African cotton producing countries. The cotton sector in Africa is critical to the provision ofsustainable rural livelihoods and the economic development of these countries. This issue ofCommodities at a glance with its focus on the African cotton sector has been prepared for the Pan-African Cotton Meeting in June 2011, in Cotonou (Benin). For further information about this publication, please contact the Special Unit on Commodities(SUC), UNCTAD, Palais des Nations, CH-1211 Genève 10, Switzerland, telephone +41 22 917 5676e-mail: [email protected]. SSTTAATTIISSTTIICCAALL DDAATTAA SSOOUURRCCEESS All Statistical data sources for this publication have been indicated under each specific graph. Some discrepancies may appear in this document, especially between production and trade statistics due to the way information is reported by countries. The share of Africa in cotton lint exports both in 1985/86-1989/90 and 2006/07-2010/11 is higher than the share of Africa in cotton lint production. This situation is due to the fact that cotton is mainly grown as an export crop in Africa for international markets, while it is largely processed and domestically used in other regions. CCOOPPYYRRIIGGHHTT Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted, but full acknowledgement is requested (UNCTAD, Special Unit on Commodities, Commodities at a Glance). A copy of the publication containing the quotation or reprint should be sent to the UNCTAD secretariat at: Palaisdes Nations, CH-1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland or by e-mail to: [email protected]. FFRREEEE SSUUBBSSCCRRIIPPTTIIOONN The current publication is intended to be published on a quarterly basis. If you are interested inreceiving its updated versions by e-mail on a regular basis, please send an e-mail to: [email protected] and we would be pleased to send it to you as soon as issued.

2

ContentsContents

Note MAKING NEWS THIS QUARTER Facts and figures: International Cotton Market ____________________________

Fig 1. World cotton production and international cotton prices (1985/86 - 2010/11) Fig 2. (i) Share of cotton trade in global trade of all primary commodities (excl. Fuels), and (ii) ratio of the cotton price index vis-à-vis the price index of all primary commodities (excl. fuels), 1995 - 2009

Fig 3. Crude petroleum and fertilizer prices (January 1985 - March 2011) Fig 4. Euro / US dollar exchange rate (January 2000 - March 2011) Facts and figures: Cotton Lint Production ________________________________ Fig 5. Average annual cotton lint production by region (1985/86 - 1989/90 and 2006/07 - 2010/11) 12 Fig 6. World and African cotton lint production (1985/86 - 2010/11) 13 Fig 7.a. African cotton lint production, as a Share of world production (1985/86 - 1989/90) 13 Fig 7.b. African cotton lint production, as a Share of world production (2006/07 - 2010/11) 13 Fig 8. Average annual cotton lint production by Africa’s top five producers (1985/86 - 1989/90) 14 Fig 9. Average annual cotton lint production by Africa’s top five producers (2006/07 - 2010/11) 14 Facts and figures: Cotton Lint Yields ____________________________________ Fig 10. Cotton lint yields by region (1985/86 - 1989/90 and 2006/07 - 2010/11) 16 Fig 11. World and African cotton lint production yields (1985/86 - 2010/11) 16 Fig 12.a. Average cotton yields of African cotton producing countries vs. dependence on cotton exports

(1995 - 1999) 17

Fig 12.b. Average cotton yields of African cotton producing countries vs. dependence on cotton exports (2005 - 2009)

17

Table 1. Ratio of average cotton yields of selected African countries to the World’s average (1985/86 - 1989/90)

18

Table 2. Ratio of average cotton yields of selected African countries to the World’s average (2006/07 - 2010/11)

18

Facts and figures: Cotton Lint Marketing and Trade ________________________ Fig 13. Average annual cotton lint exports by region (1985/86 - 1989/90 and 2006/07 - 2010/11) Fig 14. Average annual cotton lint imports by region (1985/86 - 1989/90 and 2006/07 - 2010/11) Fig 15. World and African cotton lint exports (1985/86 - 2010/11) 21 Fig 16.a. Africa cotton lint exports, as a share of world exports (1985/86 - 1989/90) 21 Fig 16.b. Africa cotton lint exports, as a share of world exports (2006/07 - 2010/11) 21 Fig 17. Average annual cotton lint exports by Africa’s top five exporters (1985/86 - 1989/90) 22 Fig 18. Five main cotton lint exporting countries and the lowest export quantities in Africa

(2006/07 - 2010/11) 22

Facts and figures: Value addition, cotton yarns ____________________________ Fig 19. Average annual cotton yarn production by region (1985 - 1989 and 2007 - 2011) 24 Fig 20. World and African cotton yarn production (1985 - 2011) 25 Fig 21.a. African cotton yarn production, as a share of world production (1985 - 1989) 25 Fig 21.b. African cotton yarn production, as a share of world production (2007 - 2011) 25 Fig 22. Average annual cotton yarn production by Africa’s top 5 producers (1985 - 1989) 26 Fig 23. Average annual cotton yarn production by Africa’s top 5 producers (2007 - 2011) 26 Facts and figures: Value addition, cotton fabrics ___________________________ Fig 24. Average annual cotton fabric production by region (1985 – 1989 and 2007 - 2011) 28 Fig 25. World and African cotton fabric production (1985 - 2011) 29 Fig 26.a. African cotton fabric production, as a share of world production (1985 - 1989) 29 Fig 26.b. African cotton fabric production, as a share of world production (2007 - 2011) 29 Fig 27. Average annual cotton fabric production by Africa’s top 5 producers (1985 - 1989) Fig 28. Average annual cotton fabric production by Africa’s top 5 producers (2007 - 2011)

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MAKING NEWS THIS QUARTER...MAKING NEWS THIS QUARTER...

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MakingMaking news news thisthis quarter...quarter...

This quarter’s edition of UNCTAD’s Commodities at a Glance describes world cotton trade, price, production, and consumption trends, with a particular focus on Africa. The cotton sector is vital for at least 80 countries, of which 28 are in Africa, and accounts for around 2 per cent of the world’s arable land. Cotton production and processing is a critically important source of income and employment in developing countries, including the least developed countries (LDCs) in Africa. China, India, the United States and Pakistan are the main producers in the world, followed by Brazil and Uzbekistan, who altogether account for 80 per cent of world cotton production. African cotton lint production accounts for 5 per cent of world production (see figure 7b). Cotton is also a widely traded commodity, involving over 100 countries in both import and exports. Prior to 2008, the world cotton industry had been experiencing robust demand growth and rising yields. Over the last 60 years, cotton production once almost quadrupled, from 7 million tons in 1950/51 to 27 million tons in 2006/07, but declined thereafter to 22 million in 2009/10 (see figure 6). The introduction and adoption of new technologies and expansion of the area under cotton has resulted in significant production gains in the world. African cotton production peaked in 2004/05 (at around 2 million tons) and then declined by almost 50 per cent over the next five years (see figure 6). The African CFAF zone countries were hardest hit with production declines of 55 per cent between 2004/05 and 2008/09 as compared with a 20 per cent decline in SADC countries. Since 1985, world cotton yields have risen from around 500 kilograms per hectare to 800 kilograms. However, these productivity gains have not materialized in Africa. The productivity gap between world and African cotton lint yields has grown over the past 20 years, with average cotton yields in Africa at about half the world average. Yields in Africa have declined by 10 per cent during this period (see figures 10 and 11). Growth in Africa’s cotton production has not been based on productivity gains with declining yields being a key factor (see figure 10). In 2009/10 African cotton exports accounted for 12.5 per cent of world cotton lint exports, down from the 21 per cent share achieved in 2003/04. This situation represents a substantial loss of global market share over the past 5 years. Again, in terms of export performance, the CFAF zone countries were hardest hit with their cotton exports falling from 14 per cent of world cotton exports (71 per cent of African cotton exports) to 7 per cent (59 per cent of African cotton exports) during 2003/04 to 2009/10[1]. Finding a solution to the cotton issue might facilitate the conclusion of the WTO Doha Round,and help African cotton producers achieve stable, predictable and fair prices on the world market. A particular issue for cotton producing African countries concerns “commodity dependence” as many countries have experienced unbalanced growth patterns due in part to the high concentration of merchandise exports in few commodities traded on often volatile world markets. Relying on a few commodities with uncertain profitability enhances their economic vulnerability. The cotton-led growth of many African countries has been negatively affected by the growing volatility of world prices, competing synthetic fibers, and cotton subsidies in the United States, Europe and China. Nonetheless, there are substantial growth opportunities for African cotton, although some challenges need to be addressed: (i) improving value addition (and quality), (ii) closing the productivity gap between Africa and other world producers through farm-level productivity and ginning efficiency; and (iii)supporting capacities and institutions through the capacity-building of stakeholders, and strengthening of governance structures. In the short-term, the main threats to the sustainability of the African cotton sector include: the US dollar:Euro exchange rate, OECD subsidies, a lack of access to finance and extension services, weak cooperatives / marketing systems and a lack of adapted risk management tools.All of these issues have to be addressed to enhance the prospects for the competitiveness of Africa’s cotton sector. [1] See European Union - Africa Partnership on Cotton update relating to the EU-Africa partnership on Cotton, June 2010. http://www.coton-acp.org/en/update-relating-european-union-africa-partnership-cotton-june-2010.

6

FACTS AND FIGURESFACTS AND FIGURES

International Cotton MarketInternational Cotton Market

7

Fig 1. World cotton production and international cotton pricesFig 1. World cotton production and international cotton prices1985/86 1985/86 –– 2010/11 2010/11

Source: Cotton production: International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC)International Cotton Prices: computed from UNCTAD, UNCTADstat

Note: Crop season – 01/08 to 31/07 of each year

World cotton prices spiked in 2010/11 to double their average price of the last 35 years (1985/86). World production has increased slightly over the timeframe

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World cotton production International cotton prices (right scale)

Fig 2. (i) Share of cotton trade in global trade of all primary Fig 2. (i) Share of cotton trade in global trade of all primary commodities (excl. Fuels), andcommodities (excl. Fuels), and(ii) ratio of the cotton price index vis(ii) ratio of the cotton price index vis--àà--vis the price index of all primary commodities (excl. vis the price index of all primary commodities (excl.

fuels), 1995 fuels), 1995 -- 20092009

Source: Computed from UNCTAD, UNCTADstatNote: ratio computed from export value data statistics (SITC Rev 3, 263). Data available from 1995.

The value of cotton trade has decreased relative to all primary commodities (excl. fuels) since 1995. Furthermore, the price of the cotton has decreased relative to prices of all commodities (excl. fuels). Both the

increase in prices of other commodities and the decrease in cotton prices explain this trend.

0.0%

0.2%

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(i)(ii)

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Euro

/ U

S d

olla

r ex

chan

ge r

ate

Exports from CFA franc area less competitive

Exports from CFA franc area more competitive

Fig 3. Crude petroleum and fertilizer prices, Fig 3. Crude petroleum and fertilizer prices, January 1985 January 1985 –– March 2011March 2011

Source: UNCTAD, UNCTADstat for crude petroleum prices, WORLD BANK for fertilizers prices

Fertilizer prices are closely linked to oil prices. They spiked in 2008 and continue to be high.

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C rude petroleum (right scale) Diammonium phosphates (DAP)Potassium Chloride Urea

Fig 4. Euro / US dollar exchange rateFig 4. Euro / US dollar exchange rateJanuary 2000 January 2000 –– March 2011March 2011

Source: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics

During most of the last decade, the Euro/US dollar exchange rate has hindered the competitiveness of cotton produced in the CFA region of West and Central Africa

9

FACTS AND FIGURES FACTS AND FIGURES

Cotton Lint ProductionCotton Lint Production

11

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America Asia Africa Europe

'000

ton

s

1985/86 - 1989/90 2006/07 - 2010/11

12

Fig 5. Average annual cotton lint production by regionFig 5. Average annual cotton lint production by region1985/86 1985/86 –– 1989/90 and 2006/07 1989/90 and 2006/07 –– 2010/112010/11

Source: UNCTAD computations from ICAC statistics

The volume of cotton produced in Asia has increased by ca. 23% from 1985/86 to 2010/11. The volume of cotton produced in Africa has decreased by ca. 10% over the same period

13

Fig 6. World and African cotton lint production Fig 6. World and African cotton lint production 1985/86 1985/86 -- 2010/112010/11

Source: UNCTAD computations from ICAC statisticsNote: According to ICAC and USDA, world cotton lint production should strongly increase in 2011/12 (+8% for USDA and +10% for ICAC).

African cotton lint production increased from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s, but declined to pre-boom levels after 2004/05. World production rose during this time period.

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World Africa (right scale) ICAC forecasts for the next crop seasons

Africa7%

Fig 7.a. African cotton lint production, Fig 7.a. African cotton lint production, as a Share of world production as a Share of world production

1985/86 1985/86 --1989/901989/90


Africa5%


Fig 7.b. African cotton lint production, Fig 7.b. African cotton lint production, as a Share of world production as a Share of world production

2006/07 2006/07 –– 2010/112010/11

The share of African cotton lint production has contracted in the last 20 years as African production fell by 10% and world production rose by 26%

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Burkina Faso Egypt Mali Zimbabwe Tanzania Average forother Africanproducers*

'000

ton

s

The production of the top 5 African producers is equal to 54% of the total African cotton production

14

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Egypt Sudan Côte d'Ivoire Zimbabwe Mali Average forother Africanproducers*

'000

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s

The production of the top 5 African producers is equal to 61% of the total African cotton production

Fig 8. Average annual cotton lint production by AfricaFig 8. Average annual cotton lint production by Africa’’s top five producerss top five producers1985/86 1985/86 –– 1989/90 1989/90

Source: UNCTAD computations from ICAC statisticsNote: * 22 countries

Cotton lint production volumes exhibit greater uniformity across the top 5 African producers in the last 20 years.

Fig 9. Average annual cotton lint production by AfricaFig 9. Average annual cotton lint production by Africa’’s top five producerss top five producers2006/07 2006/07 –– 2010/11 2010/11


Changes in the ranking of the top 5 producers were due to: (i) the onset of civil strife disrupting trade flows in Sudan and Côte d’Ivoire; (ii) the introduction of GM cotton in Burkina Faso; and (iii) supportive sectoral

and institutional reforms in Tanzania during the mid-1990s.

FACTS AND FIGURES FACTS AND FIGURES

Cotton Lint YieldsCotton Lint Yields

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America Asia Africa Europe World

kg/H

a

1985/86 - 1989/90 2006/07 - 2010/11

16

Fig 10. Cotton lint yields by regionFig 10. Cotton lint yields by region1985/86 1985/86 –– 1989/90 and 2006/07 1989/90 and 2006/07 –– 2010/11 2010/11


Average cotton lint production yields in Africa over the last 20 years were about half the world average. Yields have decreased in Europe and Africa by ca. 10% over the last 20 years.

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kg /

Ha

World Africa

Fig 11. World and African cotton lint production yieldsFig 11. World and African cotton lint production yields1985/86 1985/86 -- 2010/112010/11


The gap between world and African cotton yields has grown over the last 20 years.

17

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Côte d'Ivoire

Egypt

Mali

Mozambique

Senegal

Sudan

Tanzania

Togo

Uganda

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Central Afr. Rep.

Nigeria

Ethiopia

Madagascar

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-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90%

Yiel

d (k

g/H

a)

Chad

Burundi

230 million US$

135 million US$

190 million US$

300 million US$

150 million US$

90 million US$

20 million US$

80 million US$

Cotton export dependence (see notes)

Fig 12.a. Average cotton yields of African cotton producing counFig 12.a. Average cotton yields of African cotton producing countries vs. dependence on tries vs. dependence on cotton exports, 1995 cotton exports, 1995 -- 19991999

Source: UNCTAD computations from ICAC statistics (yields) and UNCTADstat (export revenues)Note: Dependence on cotton exports is calculated based on SITC rev 3: 263.

The size of the bubbles is proportional to total cotton export revenues in US$.Data are available from 1995.

Fig 12.b. Average cotton yields of African cotton producing counFig 12.b. Average cotton yields of African cotton producing countries vs. dependence on tries vs. dependence on cotton exports, 2005 cotton exports, 2005 -- 20092009

Benin

Cameroon

Côte d'Ivoire

Egypt

MaliSenegal Sudan

Tanzania

Togo

Uganda

Zimbabwe

NigeriaMozambique

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-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90%

Yiel

d (k

g/H

a)

Cotton export dependence (see notes)

230 million US$

180 million US$

300 million US$

100 million US$

40 million US$

140 million US$

170 million US$Burkina Faso

Chad

Since 1985, Egypt is the African country with the highest level of productivity. Its crop is mainly based on irrigation.

Cotton lint exports account for a large share of total exports in Benin, Burkina Faso and Chad.

A large number of African countries rely upon cotton exports.

Source: UNCTAD computations from ICAC statistics (yields) and UNCTADstat (export revenues)Note: Dependence on cotton exports is calculated based on SITC rev 3: 263.

The size of the bubbles is proportional to total cotton export revenues in US$.

Rank Country Ratio compared to the world


1 Egypt 1.48 15 Zimbabwe 0.68

2 Morocco 1.08 16 South Africa 0.67

3 Côte d'Ivoire 1.04 Africa 0.66

World 1.00 17 Niger 0.54

4 Cameroon 0.93 18 Chad 0.51

5 Mali 0.90 19 Ghana 0.51

6 Tunisia 0.87 20 Zambia 0.36

7 Madagascar 0.84 21 Central Afr. Rep. 0.35

8 Ethiopia 0.80 22 Angola 0.35

9 Sudan 0.80 23 Kenya 0.31

10 Togo 0.79 24 Tanzania 0.27

11 Senegal 0.76 25 DRC 0.21

12 Burkina Faso 0.76 26 Nigeria 0.17

13 Benin 0.75 27 Mozambique 0.15

14 Burundi 0.73 28 Uganda 0.05

18

Table 1. Ratio of average cotton yields of selected African counTable 1. Ratio of average cotton yields of selected African countries to the Worldtries to the World’’s average s average (1985/86 (1985/86 –– 1989/90)1989/90)


20 years ago, Egypt, Morocco and Côte d’Ivoire had production yields above the world average. Today, only South Africa and Egypt have production yields above the world average. However, yield disparities between

African countries appear to have reduced.

Table 2. Ratio of average cotton yields of selected African counTable 2. Ratio of average cotton yields of selected African countries to the Worldtries to the World’’s average s average (2006/07 (2006/07 –– 2010/11)2010/11)



1 South Africa 1.25 Africa 0.43

2 Egypt 1.11 15 Malawi 0.39

World 1.00 16 Angola 0.38

3 Benin 0.58 17 Zimbabwe 0.37

4 Niger 0.57 18 DRC 0.35

5 Cameroon 0.56 19 Togo 0.35

6 Sudan 0.53 20 Guinea 0.34

7 Ghana 0.53 21 Central Afr. Rep. 0.32

8 Mali 0.51 22 Nigeria 0.29

9 Senegal 0.51 23 Tanzania 0.28

10 Burkina Faso 0.50 24 Uganda 0.26

11 Côte d'Ivoire 0.48 25 Kenya 0.26

12 Ethiopia 0.44 26 Zambia 0.24

13 Madagascar 0.44 27 Chad 0.23

14 Burundi 0.44 28 Mozambique 0.18



Cotton Lint Marketing and TradeCotton Lint Marketing and Trade

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s

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Fig 13. Average annual cotton lint exports by regionFig 13. Average annual cotton lint exports by region1985/86 1985/86 –– 1989/90 and 2006/07 1989/90 and 2006/07 –– 2010/112010/11


African cotton lint exports to the world has increased by ca. 26% over the last 20 years; exports from America increased by ca. 95%.


The volume of cotton lint imported by Asia has more than doubled in the last 20 years, mainly due to Chinese imports. African imports continue to be marginal

Fig 14. Average annual cotton lint imports by regionFig 14. Average annual cotton lint imports by region1985/86 1985/86 –– 1989/90 and 2006/07 1989/90 and 2006/07 –– 2010/112010/11

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World Africa (right scale)

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Fig 15. World and African cotton lint exports Fig 15. World and African cotton lint exports 1985/86 1985/86 -- 2010/112010/11

In line with the fall in production, African cotton lint exports increased from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s, but have declined to pre-boom levels since 2005/06.

Africa15%

Fig 16.a. Africa cotton lint exports, Fig 16.a. Africa cotton lint exports, as a share of world exports as a share of world exports

1985/86 1985/86 --1989/901989/90


Africa13%

Fig 16.b. Africa cotton lint exports, Fig 16.b. Africa cotton lint exports, as a share of world exports as a share of world exports

2006/07 2006/07 –– 2010/112010/11


The share of Africa in world cotton lint exports both in 1985/86-1989/90 and 2006/07-2010/11 is higher than the share of Africa in world cotton lint production. This situation is due to the fact that cotton is mainly

grown as an export crop in Africa and exported as such to international markets, while it is largely processed and internally used in other regions. Despite an increase in export quantities by ca. 20’000 tons, the share of

African cotton lint exports has contracted in the last 20 years. During the “boom period” (1995/96 –2005/06), Africa’s export share in the world was 18%.

22

Fig 17. Average annual cotton lint exports by AfricaFig 17. Average annual cotton lint exports by Africa’’s top five exporterss top five exporters1985/86 1985/86 –– 1989/90 1989/90

Source: UNCTAD computations from ICAC statisticsNote: * 18 countriesSome discrepancies may appear in this document, especially between production and trade statistics due to the way information is reported by countries.

-

50

100

150

200

250

Sudan Egypt Côte d'Ivoire Mali Zimbabwe Average forother Africanexporters*

'000

ton

s

The exports of the top 5 African exporters was equal to 61% of total African cotton exports.

Fig 18. The Five main cotton lint African exporting countriesFig 18. The Five main cotton lint African exporting countries2006/07 2006/07 –– 2010/11 2010/11

Changes in the ranking of the top 5 exporters were due to: (i) the onset of civil strife disrupting trade flows in Sudan and Côte d’Ivoire, and (ii) the introduction of GM cotton in Burkina Faso.

Source: UNCTAD computations from ICAC statisticsNote: * 19 countriesSome discrepancies may appear in this document, especially between production and trade statistics due to the way information is reported by countries.

-

50

100

150

200

250

Burkina Faso Mali Benin Zimbabwe Egypt Average forother Africanexporters*

'000

ton

s

The exports of the top 5 African exporters was equal to 58% of total African cotton exports.


Value addition Value addition –– Cotton YarnsCotton Yarns

23

2'298

8'928

472

3'8212'429

32'090

330 788-

5'000

10'000

15'000

20'000

25'000

30'000

35'000

America Asia / Oceania Africa Europe

'000

ton

s

1985 - 1989 2007 - 2011

24

Fig 19. Average annual cotton yarn production by region Fig 19. Average annual cotton yarn production by region 1985 1985 –– 1989 and 2007 1989 and 2007 -- 20112011


Cotton yarn production has been multiplied by 3.6 in Asia/Oceania over the last 20 years. This is mainly due to: (i) the rapid growth in demand for cotton products in Asia (especially, China); and (ii) improved

infrastructural, industrial and technological conditions. In contrast, in Africa the volume of yarn production remains marginal relative to the continent’s lint production.

-

5'000

10'000

15'000

20'000

25'000

30'000

35'000

40'00019

85

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

'000

ton

s

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

'000 tons


25

Fig 20. World and African cotton yarn production Fig 20. World and African cotton yarn production 1985 1985 -- 20112011


While the volume of yarn produced in the world has almost tripled over the last 20 years, production in Africa has halved since the early 1990s, largely due to the low adoption of new

technologies, declining yields, climatic variability and low ginning capacity.


Fig 21.a. African cotton yarn production, Fig 21.a. African cotton yarn production, as a share of world productionas a share of world production

1985 1985 -- 19891989

Africa3%


Fig 21.b. African cotton yarn production, Fig 21.b. African cotton yarn production, as a share of world productionas a share of world production

2007 2007 -- 20112011

Africa1%

The share of African cotton yarn production has contracted in the last 20 years to 1% of global production

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

Egyp

t

Mor

occo

Nig

eria

Tanz

ania

Sou

th A

fric

a

Ave

rage

for

othe

r A

fric

anco

tton

yar

npr

oduc

ers*

'000

ton

s

The production of the top 5 african producers accounts for 86% of total African cotton yarn production.

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

Egyp

t

Mor

occo

Sou

th A

fric

a

Alg

eria

Cot

e d'

Ivoi

re

Ave

rage

for

othe

r A

fric

anco

tton

yar

npr

oduc

ers*

'000

ton

s

The production of the top 5 african producers accounts for 88% of total African cotton yarn production.

26

Fig 22. Average annual cotton yarn production by AfricaFig 22. Average annual cotton yarn production by Africa’’s top 5 producers s top 5 producers 1985 1985 –– 1989 1989

The yarn production of Africa’s top producer, Egypt, has fell by 50% over the last 20 years. This is mainly due to: (i) the decrease in demand for Egyptian cotton (considered a luxury product); (ii) a decline in the amount of

land under cotton; and (iii) the removal of subsidies and privatization of the sector in the mid-1990s.


Nigeria and Tanzania have joined the ranks of the top five producers. In Nigeria, this was due to: (i) higher cotton seed prices; (ii) lower producer prices for competing crops since 2000; and (iii) various government

stimulus measures for cotton producers. In Tanzania, sectoral and institutional reforms have been implemented during the 1990s.

Fig 23. Average annual cotton yarn production by AfricaFig 23. Average annual cotton yarn production by Africa’’s top 5 producers s top 5 producers 2007 2007 –– 2011 2011



Value addition Value addition –– Cotton FabricsCotton Fabrics

27

28

241

2'391

15'728

260 701

5'566

1'381 1'324

-

2'000

4'000

6'000

8'000

10'000

12'000

14'000

16'000

18'000

America Asia / Oceania Africa Europe

'000

ton

s

1985 - 1989 2007 - 2011

Fig 24. Average annual cotton fabric production by regionFig 24. Average annual cotton fabric production by region1985 1985 –– 1989 and 2007 1989 and 2007 -- 20112011


Cotton fabric production has almost tripled in Asia/Oceania over the last 20 years. This is mainly due to: (i) the rapid growth in demand for cotton products in Asia (especially, China); and (ii) improved infrastructural,

industrial and technological conditions. In contrast, in Africa, the volume of cotton fabric production has increased only slightly and remains marginal relative to the volume of lint produced. This is largely due to

the low adoption of new technologies, declining yields, climatic variability and low ginning capacity.

-

5'000

10'000

15'000

20'000

25'000

1'98

5

1'98

6

1'98

7

1'98

8

1'98

9

1'99

0

1'99

1

1'99

2

1'99

3

1'99

4

1'99

5

1'99

6

1'99

7

1'99

8

1'99

9

2'00

0

2'00

1

2'00

2

2'00

3

2'00

4

2'00

5

2'00

6

2'00

7

2'00

8

2'00

9

2'01

0

'000

ton

s

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

'000 tons


29

Fig 25. World and African cotton fabric production Fig 25. World and African cotton fabric production 1985 1985 -- 20112011


The volume of fabric produced in the world has almost doubled over the last 20 years. Production in Africa has remained relatively stable with a significant dip in the late 1990s and a speedy recovery in 2004, mainly due to

the reduction of cotton lint and yarn production in Africa (see figures 6 and 22).


Fig 26.a. African cotton fabric production, Fig 26.a. African cotton fabric production, as a share of world production as a share of world production

1985 1985 -- 19891989

Africa3%


Africa1%

Fig 26.b. African cotton fabric production, Fig 26.b. African cotton fabric production, as a share of world production as a share of world production

2007 2007 -- 20112011

The share of African cotton fabric production has contracted in the last 20 years to 1% of global production.

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Egyp

t

Sou

th A

fric

a

Mor

occo

Tanz

ania

Zam

bia

Ave

rage

for

othe

r A

fric

anco

tton

fab

ric

prod

ucer

s*

'000

ton

s

The production of the top 5 african producers accounts fo 75% of total African cotton fabric production.

Fig 27. Average annual cotton fabric production by AfricaFig 27. Average annual cotton fabric production by Africa’’s top 5 producers s top 5 producers 1985 1985 –– 1989 1989

Cotton fabric production is highly concentrated in Africa and this trend has increased over the last 20 years.


-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Tanz

ania

Egyp

t

Mor

occo

Nig

eria

Sou

th A

fric

a

Ave

rage

for

othe

r A

fric

anco

tton

fab

ric

prod

ucer

s*

'000

ton

s

The production of the top 5 african producers accounts for 90% of total African cotton fabric production.

Fig 28. Average annual cotton fabric production by AfricaFig 28. Average annual cotton fabric production by Africa’’s top 5 producers s top 5 producers 2007 2007 –– 2011 2011

Cotton fabric production has tripled in Tanzania and dramatically declined in Egypt and South Africa. Nigeria has emerged as a significant producer of fabric. In Egypt, the decrease is mainly due: (i) the decline in the

demand for Egyptian cotton; (ii) a decline in the amount of land under cotton; and (iii) the removal of subsidies and privatization of the sector in the mid-1990s.

Source: UNCTAD computations from ICAC statisticsNote: * 11 countries30



NN°°2 2 -- July 2011July 2011


Printed at United Nations, Geneva–GE.11-51099–June 2011–250–UNCTAD/SUC/2011/2

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