Post on 18-Dec-2015
“…the smallpox eradication effort evolved over time in response to the practical realities in the
field, the development of new approaches through research, the active involvement of local leadership and peoples, and imaginative quality control measures and supervision. It developed
different approaches and strategies adapted to local conditions...”
DON HENDERSON, DIRECTOR OF SMALLPOX CAMPAIGN
Behaviours
Relations Systems
Dynamics
Cognitive and operational biases in aid
‘…where machines work well. Such approaches
would be ideal where there is a straightforward task to perform,
a stable context and operating environment,
identical, duplicable products, and compliant, predictable and
reliable parts – which includes
the human ‘components’...”
“…All malaria programmes were obliged to adhere rigidly to a highly detailed, standardised manual of operations. It mandated identical job descriptions in every country and prescribed specific charts to be displayed on each office wall at each administrative level. The programme was conceived and executed as a military operation to be conducted in an identical manner whatever the battlefield... the premise of the programme was that the needed knowledge and technology was available and that success depended solely on meticulous attention to implementation detail. Research was considered unnecessary and was effectively suspended from the launch of the programme…”
“...The Newtonian model is staggering about the global stage like a mortally
wounded Shakespearean actor...”
• Organised simplicity
• Disorganised complexity
• Organised complexity
The problems we face in science and policy
Adaptive
Designs and strategies evolve over time
System
Macro patterns emerge from micro behavior
Complex
Many interacting agents and organizations of agents
The world is rife with ‘complex adaptive systems’
Complexity science helps development scientists better understand systems, networks, behaviours and dynamics
Emergent systems
Adaptive behaviours
Diverse networks
Dynamic change
Behaviours
Relations Systems
Dynamics
(Compare to the institutionalised operating assumptions of aid)
SYSTEMS•Systems thinking approach to malaria reduction (IWMI)•Holistic management of anti-desertification programmes in Zimbabwe (Operation Hope)•System dynamics in conflict (UWM)•Social ecological systems (Indiana)
BEHAVIOURS•Agent-based modelling in agriculture (French Development Agency) •Agent-based models of national political economy (World Bank)•Evolutionary approaches to dealing with malnutrition (Save the Children)•Problem-driven iterative adaptation (Harvard, Bank)
NETWORKS •Complexity, networks and growth (Harvard Center for International Development)•Social network analysis of disaster responses (Red Cross)•Global economic fragility (IMF)•Irrigation and water temple networks in Bali (Santa Fe)
DYNAMICSNon-linear epidemiology (Sahel)•Emergent education (NIIT, IFC)•Mhealth approaches in Africa •Scaling up health interventions (Future Health Systems Consortium)
Case study: Atlas of Economic Complexity
• A network-based approach to economic development
• Networks of productive knowledge condition and shape the development of nations
• The structure of network explains growth and stagnation
• Best predictor of national growth available
Behaviours Relations Systems
Organized simplicity
Organised complexity
Disorganised complexity
Dynamics
Systems are open, dynamic, interconnected
and interdependent. Macro patterns
emerge from micro behaviors and interactions
What complexity research brings
Change is non-linear,
unpredictable, with phase transitions,
characterized by power laws and discontinuities
What complexity research brings
Relationships, networks, flows, ties,
values, beliefs are vital. Are
path dependent and
historical
Humans are adaptive tinkerers;
subject to errors and biases;
self-organize and co-evolve with
system and each other
Systems are open, dynamic,
interconnected and
interdependent. Macro patterns
emerge from micro behaviors and interactions
What sciences of complexity bring
Humans are adaptive tinkerers;
subject to errors and biases;
self-organize and co-evolve with
system and each other
Relationships, flows, ties,
values, beliefs are vital. Are
path dependent and
historical
Change is non-linear,
unpredictable, with phase transitions,
characterized by power laws and discontinuities
Behaviours Relations Systems Dynamics
Systems and problems are closed, static, linear
systems; reductionist
Individuals use rational deduction; behaviour
and action can be specified from top-down
Actors can be treated as
independent andatomized
Change is direct result of actions;
proportional, additive and predictable
Sciences of simplicity
What complex systems research brings to development sciences
‘We cannot solve problems by using the same kind of thinkingwe used when we created them.’ALBERT EINSTEIN