The way aid works

The way the world works

The way aid could work

“…the smallpox eradication effort evolved over time in response to the practical realities in the

field, the development of new approaches through research, the active involvement of local leadership and peoples, and imaginative quality control measures and supervision. It developed

different approaches and strategies adapted to local conditions...”

DON HENDERSON, DIRECTOR OF SMALLPOX CAMPAIGN

Behaviours

Relations Systems

Dynamics

Cognitive and operational biases in aid

‘…where machines work well. Such approaches

would be ideal where there is a straightforward task to perform,

a stable context and operating environment,

identical, duplicable products, and compliant, predictable and

reliable parts – which includes

the human ‘components’...”

“…All malaria programmes were obliged to adhere rigidly to a highly detailed, standardised manual of operations. It mandated identical job descriptions in every country and prescribed specific charts to be displayed on each office wall at each administrative level. The programme was conceived and executed as a military operation to be conducted in an identical manner whatever the battlefield... the premise of the programme was that the needed knowledge and technology was available and that success depended solely on meticulous attention to implementation detail. Research was considered unnecessary and was effectively suspended from the launch of the programme…”

“...The Newtonian model is staggering about the global stage like a mortally

wounded Shakespearean actor...”

The way aid works

The way the world works

The way aid could work

• Organised simplicity

• Disorganised complexity

• Organised complexity

The problems we face in science and policy

Adaptive

Designs and strategies evolve over time

System

Macro patterns emerge from micro behavior

Complex

Many interacting agents and organizations of agents

The world is rife with ‘complex adaptive systems’

Complexity science helps development scientists better understand systems, networks, behaviours and dynamics

Emergent systems

Adaptive behaviours

Diverse networks

Dynamic change

Behaviours

Relations Systems

Dynamics

(Compare to the institutionalised operating assumptions of aid)

The way aid works

The way the world works

The way aid could work

SYSTEMS•Systems thinking approach to malaria reduction (IWMI)•Holistic management of anti-desertification programmes in Zimbabwe (Operation Hope)•System dynamics in conflict (UWM)•Social ecological systems (Indiana)

BEHAVIOURS•Agent-based modelling in agriculture (French Development Agency) •Agent-based models of national political economy (World Bank)•Evolutionary approaches to dealing with malnutrition (Save the Children)•Problem-driven iterative adaptation (Harvard, Bank)

NETWORKS •Complexity, networks and growth (Harvard Center for International Development)•Social network analysis of disaster responses (Red Cross)•Global economic fragility (IMF)•Irrigation and water temple networks in Bali (Santa Fe)

DYNAMICSNon-linear epidemiology (Sahel)•Emergent education (NIIT, IFC)•Mhealth approaches in Africa •Scaling up health interventions (Future Health Systems Consortium)

Network analysis: from atomised actors with formal

relations to informal, social cliques and groups

Case study: Atlas of Economic Complexity

• A network-based approach to economic development

• Networks of productive knowledge condition and shape the development of nations

• The structure of network explains growth and stagnation

• Best predictor of national growth available

The product space

Ghana vs Malaysia

Ghana vs Malaysia

Behaviours Relations Systems

Organized simplicity

Organised complexity

Disorganised complexity

Dynamics

Systems are open, dynamic, interconnected

and interdependent. Macro patterns

emerge from micro behaviors and interactions

What complexity research brings

Change is non-linear,

unpredictable, with phase transitions,

characterized by power laws and discontinuities

What complexity research brings

Relationships, networks, flows, ties,

values, beliefs are vital. Are

path dependent and

historical

Humans are adaptive tinkerers;

subject to errors and biases;

self-organize and co-evolve with

system and each other

Systems are open, dynamic,

interconnected and

interdependent. Macro patterns

emerge from micro behaviors and interactions

What sciences of complexity bring

Humans are adaptive tinkerers;

subject to errors and biases;

self-organize and co-evolve with

system and each other

Relationships, flows, ties,

values, beliefs are vital. Are

path dependent and

historical

Change is non-linear,

unpredictable, with phase transitions,

characterized by power laws and discontinuities

Behaviours Relations Systems Dynamics

Systems and problems are closed, static, linear

systems; reductionist

Individuals use rational deduction; behaviour

and action can be specified from top-down

Actors can be treated as

independent andatomized

Change is direct result of actions;

proportional, additive and predictable

Sciences of simplicity

What complex systems research brings to development sciences

Closing thoughts

‘We cannot solve problems by using the same kind of thinkingwe used when we created them.’ALBERT EINSTEIN

Thank you!