Post on 05-Oct-2020
ATOC4088/5000: Policy implications of climate/critical issues in climate and the environment University of Colorado Boulder
Boulder, CO 5 March 2015
byDr. David W. Fahey, Director Chemical Sciences Division Earth System Research Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, Colorado USA
The role of the Montreal Protocol in protecting present and future climate: A scientific perspective
Outline • Ozone basics
• The Montreal Protocol and dual benefits • HFCs and projected future emissions
• The future Montreal Protocol • Climate Change Building
• Summary remarks
Protection from ultraviolet light from the ozone layer.
• The ozone layer resides in the stratosphere and surrounds the entire Earth. • UV-B radiation (280- to 315-nanometer (nm) wavelength) from the Sun is strongly absorbed in this layer. • UV-A (315- to 400-nm wavelength), visible light, and other solar radiation are not strongly absorbed by the ozone layer.
UNEP, 2010
• Human exposure to UV-B radiation increases the risks of skin cancer, cataracts, and a suppressed immune system. UV-B radiation exposure can also damage terrestrial plant life, single-cell organisms, and aquatic ecosystems.
The stratospheric ozone is good ozone and excess ozone in the troposphere is bad ozone.
The Ozone Layer
Good ozone
Bad ozone
UNEP, 2010
Total ozone at a point on the globe is the amount of ozone from the surface to the top of the atmosphere.
Ozone concepts: Total ozone & the Dobson Unit (DU)
Total ozone = ozone vertical sum
Stove pipe thought experiment: sort the atmosphere column into its different component gases O2 + N2
Ar + others
O3
Thought experiment:
UNEP, 2010
??? 3 mm = 0.12 in = 300 DU
Ozone is a small fractional component of our atmosphere.
The Parties to this Protocol,
Being Parties to the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer,
Mindful of their obligation under that Convention to take appropriate measures to protect human health and the environment against adverse effects resulting or likely to result from human activities which modify or are likely to modify the ozone layer,
Recognizing that world-wide emissions of certain substances can significantly deplete and otherwise modify the ozone layer in a manner that is likely to result in adverse effects on human health and the environment,
Conscious of the potential climatic effects of emissions of these substances, ……
The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer – 16 September 1987
www.unep.org/OZONE/pdfs/Montreal-Protocol2000.pdf
Universal ratification in September 2009 by 197 members of the United Nations.
The world’s most successful environmental treaty
17 September 2009
Antarctic Ozone Hole
Technical aspects of the Montreal Protocol
The Montreal Protocol has imposed legally binding controls on the global consumption and production of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and introduced short-term and long-term substitute gases. - chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) - halons - hydrochloroflurocarbons (HCFCs) - hydroflurocarbons (HFCs)
ODS are used to meet application demand for refrigeration, air conditioning, insulating foams, fire suppression, and many other society needs.
The Montreal Protocol addresses the technical, economic and social aspects of its regulations and distinguishes between the developed and developing world.
Ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) entering the stratosphere in 2008
Human uses of synthetic chemicals have significantly increased their abundance in the stratosphere. Most synthetic gases have no significant loss processes in the troposphere, i.e., very unreactive.
UNEP, 2010
The Montreal Protocol & Amendments
UNEP/WMO, 2010
The Montreal Protocol has been very successful in reducing chlorine and bromine in the atmosphere. A
tmos
pher
ic c
hlor
ine
and
brom
ine
(World avoided) Chlorine and
bromine from ozone depleting substances (ODSs) destroys ozone.
City names are locations of the meetings of the parties
Strategy: Start and strengthen.
UNEP, 2010
Scientific assessments of ozone depletion have been an important component of the Montreal Protocol.
Montreal Protocol and scientific assessments
‘Vigilance’ is the new requirement
UNEP United Nations Environment Programme WMO World Meteorological Organization
Strategy: Start and strengthen.
The dual benefit of the Montreal Protocol
CFCs & halons HCFCs HFCs
High ODP Low ODP Zero ODP
High GWP
ODP
GWP
By reducing the use and emissions of ozone depleting substances, the Montreal Protocol has provided to date the dual benefit of protecting ozone and climate.
ODP = ozone depletion potential increased ozone depletion CFC-11 = 1 GWP = global warming potential increased climate warming CO2 = 1
Metrics for ODSs and substitutes:
GWP ??
0 0 4000 8000 12000 160005 10 15 20Ozone depletion potential (ODP) Global warming potential (GWP, 100-yr)
Ozo
ne-d
eple
ting
subs
tanc
esS
ubst
itute
gas
es HFC-143a
HFC-23
HFC-125
HFC-152a
Halon-1211
CFC-11
HCFC-22
Methyl bromide
Carbon tetrachloride
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0.05)
(0)
Hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs)
Bromine-containinggases
(133)
(5)
(1)
Increasing ozone depletion Increasing surface warming
HFC-134a
Halon-1301
CFC-113
CFC-12
Chlorine-containinggases
HFC-1234yf(0) (4)
Ozone-depletion potentials and global warming potentials for equal mass emissions
UNEP/WMO, 2010
ODSs contribute to both ozone depletion & climate change. HFCs contribute to climate change.
CFC-11 = 1 CO2 = 1
0
2
4
6
Em
issi
ons
(Meg
aton
nes
CF
C-1
1-eq
uiva
lent
per
yea
r)
1960 1980 2000 2020Year
Emissions weighted by ozone-depletion potentials (ODPs)
MontrealProtocol Ozone layer
protection
0
Emissions weighted by global-warming potentials (GWPs)
0
10
20
30
40
Em
issi
ons
(Gig
aton
nes
CO
2-eq
uiva
lent
per
yea
r)
MontrealProtocol
1960 1980 2000 2020Year
Climateprotection
reduction targetfor 2008 – 2012
2.0
Kyoto Protocol
Velders et al., 2007; UNEP/WMO, 2010
Demonstrating the dual benefit of the Montreal Protocol in protecting ozone and climate
By 2010, the Montreal Protocol has avoided substantial ozone depletion and achieved 5-6 times Kyoto Protocol target in 2008-2012.
Bill Schorr, Kansas City Star, 1988
The World Avoided
Andersen and Sarma, 2002
Recent changes in the Montreal Protocol
CFCs & halons HCFCs HFCs
High ODP Low ODP Zero ODP
In 2007, based on the documented success in reducing ODSs, the Montreal Protocol accelerated the phase out of HCFCs by 10 years (from 2040 to 2030) for developing nations.
The 2007 Adjustment that accelerated the HCFC phaseout is the first, global, legally binding, fully funded action specifically to protect climate.
Ultimately, maintaining the climate benefit depends on choosing HFC substitutes that have low-GWPs.
Phaseout accelerated in 2007
Annual Montreal Protocol Meeting, 2008, Doha, Qatar
Residential Air conditioning
Refrigeration Insulating foams
The demand for synthetic gases is still high and growing
The expected growth in the developing world is large
Automobile Air conditioning
The future: Avoiding the large projected growth in HFC use
Velders et al., PNAS (2009)
HFCs will be the primary choice for future applications of refrigeration, air conditioning, and foams.
Scenarios based on GDP and population growth projections.
Scenario assumes HCFC phaseout schedule and business-as-usual replacement schedule from developed nations.
HFC emissions in developing countries up to 800% greater than in developed countries in 2050.
HFC consumption
Developing countries
Developed countries
The future: Avoiding the large projected growth in HFC use
Velders et al., PNAS (2009)
The future: Avoiding the large projected growth in HFC use
Velders et al., PNAS (2009)
http://www.unep.ch/ozone/highlights.shtml
Summary declaration from 108 parties of the Montreal Protocol in November 2010.
‘…to pursue further action under the Montreal Protocol aimed at transitioning the world to environmentally sound alternatives to HCFCs and CFCs.’
+ proposals to amend the Montreal Protocol to include HFCs.
The Future The Present The Past
CFCs & halons
HCFCs
HFCs (low GWP)
HFCs (high GWP)
Alternatives (zero GWP)
X
CO2 and HC
The future: Avoiding the large projected growth in HFC use
Political response:
http://www.unep.ch/ozone/highlights.shtml
Summary declaration from 108 parties of the Montreal Protocol in November 2010.
‘…to pursue further action under the Montreal Protocol aimed at transitioning the world to environmentally sound alternatives to HCFCs and CFCs.’
+ proposals to amend the Montreal Protocol to include HFCs.
The Future The Present The Past
CFCs & halons
HCFCs
HFCs (low GWP)
HFCs (high GWP)
Alternatives (zero GWP)
X
CO2 and HC
The future: Avoiding the large projected growth in HFC use
Political response:
Climate change ‘Ground Zero’ HFC regulation under the Montreal Protocol could be the second, global, legally binding, fully funded action specifically to protect climate
Proposal elements: Depend on known alternative
chemicals, new technologies, and improved process/handling practices to reduce HFC consumption.
Leave unchanged the provisions of the UNFCCC / Kyoto Protocol that govern HFC emissions.
http://www.unep.ch/ozone/highlights.shtml
Proposed Amendment of the Montreal Protocol to regulate HFCs (North American and Federated States of Micronesia Proposals: May 2010)
Developed nations
Developing nations
Select 20 HFCs, gradual phasedown
Report on production and consumption of HFCs, and HFC 23 byproduct emissions
Provide funding under the Montreal Protocol s Multilateral Fund
Strategy: Start and strengthen.
What is happening in industry (car makers)
Since the 1990s all mobile air-conditioners use HFC-134a (GWP = 1370)
In EU: mobile air-conditioning directive: - Refrigerant should have GWP < 150 - From 2011 for new type of vehicles (derogation until 12/2012) Alternatives available for HFC-134a: - HFC-1234yf (Drop-in replacement with GWP = 5) - CO2 promoted by German EPA (requires engine redesign)
Meeting of Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama at Rancho Mirage, California on 8 June 2013.
Will work together and with other countries to use the expertise and institutions of the Montreal Protocol to phasedown the production and consumption of HFCs.
G20 Summit, St. Petersburg September 2013
Initiatives for global phase down of HFCs in 2013
6 September 2013: G-20 leaders expanded the support for using the expertise and institutions of the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of HFCs, while retaining HFCs within the scope of the UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol for accounting and reporting of emissions.
This was agreed by the following countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union, as well as Ethiopia, Spain, Senegal, Brunei, Kazakhstan, and Singapore.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/
http://www.diplomacy.edu/
http://www.diplomacy.edu/
Summary Remarks
The Montreal Protocol regulations have had a dual benefit: protecting ozone and climate.
Past: The Montreal Protocol ODS reductions have protected the ozone layer and also protected climate: 5 - 6 times the reduction target of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol). Present: The Montreal Protocol accelerated the HCFC
phaseout to further protect climate.
Future: The Montreal Protocol regulations will lead to greatly increased HFC use. New proposed amendments would regulate HFC substitute gases and guide global refrigeration, AC, and foam applications use towards low-GWP alternatives.
Grand challenge: The Montreal Protocol and Kyoto Protocol parties working together to minimize the climate impact in meeting the global application demand for synthetic gases in the developing world.
Ongoing challenge: Identifying scientific contributions that provide the needed foundation for the climate change building.
References
Twenty Questions and Answers about the Ozone Layer:
2010 UpdateScientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010
World Meteorological Organization European Commission
United Nations Environment Programme National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Fahey, D.W., and M. I. Hegglin, Twenty questions and answers about the ozone layer: 2010 Update, in the UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010 http://ozone.unep.org/Assessment_Panels/
Velders, G., et al., The Montreal Protocol protection of climate, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2007.
Velders, G., et al., The large contribution of projected HFC emissions to future climate forcing, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2009.
Fahey, D., The Montreal Protocol protection of ozone and climate, Theoretical Inquires in Law, 2013.
Science has the first word on everything, but the last word on nothing." Victor Hugo
Thank you for your attention.
Backup slides
The ?????.
Present: The accelerated HCFC phaseout (Montreal Protocol September 2007)
Climate protection from HCFC phaseout (12-15 GtCO2-eq) is significant wrt to Kyoto Protocol targets
Velders et al., 2007
Ultimately, climate benefit depends on choice of substitutes, i.e., low ODP, low-GWP options
Max HCFCs
Advances phaseout by 10 years for developing nations.
More for climate protection than ozone protection.
• The suite of known alternative chemicals, new technologies, and improved process/handling practices can significantly reduce HFC consumption while simultaneously supporting the HCFC phaseout. Relationship with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol: • The proposal is intended to support overall global efforts aimed at climate system protection.
• The proposal constitutes an amendment to the Montreal Protocol, and could be complemented by a related decision by the UNFCCC confirming the Montreal Protocol approach.
• Leaves unchanged the provisions of the UNFCCC / Kyoto Protocol that govern HFC emissions. Parties could follow Montreal Protocol obligations to meet certain UNFCCC obligations.
Amendment of the Montreal Protocol to regulate HFCs (North American and Federated States of Micronesia Proposals: May 2010)
The proposal has not yet been adopted by the Montreal Protocol.
IPCC AR4 (2006)
Halocarbons = 0.34 Wm-2 = 20% of total RF of 1.66 Wm-2.
Global radiative forcing components in 2005
Halogen source gases undergo conversion in the stratosphere
Halogen (Cl & Br) source gases undergo conversion in the stratosphere to more reactive forms
1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry: Rowland, Molina, Crutzen
Ozone destruction ODSs