Post on 20-Aug-2015
The Road to Disruption
Australia ICT Outlook 2013
Andrew MilroyVice President, ICTTwitter @andy1994
Agenda
Cloud Computing – Some Data
Telecoms Update
The Evolution of Cloud Adoption
The Shrinking IT Department
Industry Convergence
Key Takeaways
2
The Australia Cloud Computing market is expected to grow at 40.3% for the 2011-2016 period.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
611.5
882.4
1,272.1
1,808.8
2,495.4
3,330.0
US
$ m
illio
ns
CAGR: 40.3%
Australia Cloud Computing Market Outlook
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Cloud Computing is witnessing growing traction in Australia
N = 100
Perception of Cloud Computing
1%
6%
7%
3%
5%
17%
16%
29%
26%
16%
41%
46%
33%
38%
38%
35%
26%
28%
27%
33%
6%
6%
3%
6%
8%
At this stage, the risks of cloud far outweigh the benefits
I believe that Cloud computing is going to shrink IT teams and make some jobs
redundant
There is more pressure on me from the top management to procure Cloud
services
Public Clouds are less secure than private clouds
Cloud computing is my # 1 priority for current/future fiscal year
Strongly disagre Somewhat disagree Neutral Somewhat agree Strongly agree
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Almost a third of businesses in APAC today use Cloud Computing
N = 600
Adoption level has increased by 6 percentage points from Aug/Sep 2010. Hybrid Clouds offering a blend of Cost Savings and Security witnessed
highest adoption.
Adoption of Cloud Computing by Delivery Model
71%
10%
3%
16%
Not adopted Public cloud Private cloud Hybrid cloud
Australia Leads Cloud Adoption in APAC
Adoption of Cloud Computing by Country
Singapore
Malaysia
India
Hong Kong
China
Australia
68%
67%
76%
74%
87%
57%
32%
33%
24%
26%
13%
43%
Not adopted Adopted N = 100
Malaysia and Singapore have emerged as the next hot beds of adoption.
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
Enterprises Will Continue Investing in the Cloud
N =600
Decrease by more than 20%
Decrease by 11% to 20%
Decrease by 6% to 10%
Decrease by less than 5%
Remain the same
Increase by 0% to 5%
Increase by 6% to 10%
Increase by 11% to 20%
Increase by more than 20%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
56.2%
24.0%
12.7%
7.3%
4.8%
Change in Cloud Computing budget for 2012 over 2011
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
8
The Australian telecommunications market is a typical mature market with falling ARPU and single digit growth rate.
Australia Market Overview Overview
• By end of 2012, there will be around 30.5 million mobile subscribers in the market, implying a penetration rate of almost 133% and an user penetration of over 100%
• In the near term, competition between mobile operators is set to intensify further, resulting in lower mobile call charges for customers leading to ARPU decline
• The market is continuing to see a shift in focus from voice to more data-orientated services, driven by increasing smartphone adoption and facilitated by faster networksWireless Subscriber Market Share, 2012(e)
Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysts
Mobile Subscribers and Penetration Rate (Australia), 2005-2016
ARPU for Mobile Services (Australia), 2005-2016
Postpaid ARPU
Prepaid ARPU
Blended ARPU
AR
PU
($
)W
ire
les
s S
ub
sc
rib
ers
(‘
00
0)
Penetration Rate (%)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
102030405060708090
Mature Telco Market and Collapsing ARPUs
Bandwidth Requirements
Emails
Internet browsing
Social Networking
Online Shopping
P2P File Sharing
Real time Communications
Smart City Infrastructure
Tele-medicine
Gaming
Tele-education
Smart Grid
Next Generation TV
Interactive Advertisements
Appl
icati
on /
Con
tent
Req
uire
men
ts
< 1Mbps 3 - 7 Mbps 100 Mbps - 1 Gbps
Rich Communications
o Increasing demand from consumers for virtual equivalent communication and entertainment experiences. For example, low latency in high graphics gaming.
o Demand from enterprises (e.g. SMEs) for cost effective productivity applications such as cloud computing.
o Demand from the public sector to increase administrative efficiency via smart city infrastructure.
NBN: Possibilities
ConvergenceBasic
Cloud Computing
High Speed Network Opportunities
Next-Generation Broadband: Coverage versus Adoption
S. Korea
UAE
Hong Kong
Japan
Taiwan
Sweden
USA
Singapore
China
Malaysia
Australia Less than 1%
3%
4%
8%
8.5%
14%
29%
43%
45%
56%
58%
FTTX Penetration Rate by Countries, December 2011
Will Australia’s AU$36 billion NBN Investment
pay off?
• In high penetration rate countries, it is marketed based on application such as gaming NOT speed.
• In low penetration countries, CSPs need to focus on marketing value based services.
• For example, 83% of buildings have fibre in Singapore, but only 8% have adopted it.
Source: FTTX Council
RSPs Must Focus on Applications & Services
Cloud Maturity in Business Context
Ad hoc public cloud use
Widespread virtualization
Shadow IT
Driven by BUs
Stage 1
Augment
Shifting key processes to the cloud
Monitored SLAs
Complex mixed IT environments
Stage 2
Evolve
New business models
Cloud is the norm
Business agility realized
Stage 3
Innovate
Whole industries transformed
Incumbents under threat
New business economics
Stage 4
Disrupt
50%+of firms
10%+of firms
5%+of firms
1%+of firms
Banking
Utilities
IT
Media
Retail
Healthcare
Smart Grids
Post PC Era
EMR and Point of Care Solutions
Branchless Banking
Industry Cloud Driven Transformation
Virtual Stores and more eCommerce
Content Streaming, eBooks
Cloud Prediction 2: Businesses will be transformed by Cloud Computing
The IT Department of the Future
Traditional Modern Emerging
IT Department Supports Enables change Creates competitive advantage
CIO Management Board level Leader
Staff Technical Process oriented Partner managers and service integrators
Focus Areas Service delivery and security
Business agility and managing change
Innovation and customer experience
KPIs Performance against budget Delivery of results Innovation
1980s 2010 2020
Advanced Lasers
Digital Manufacturing
Micro & Nano Manufacturing
CBRM Detection Technologies
Energy Harvesting
Smart Sensors
Wireless Sensor Networks
Algae-based Ingredients
Nanocatalysts
Advanced Filtration
Smart Textiles
Compostable Packaging
Superhydrophobic coatings
Enzyme Technology
Lightweight Composites
Cloud Computing
Virtulization
Semantic Web
Fabric Computing
Long Term Evolution
Genome Sequencing
Biosensng
Adult Stem Cells
Nanofluidics & BioNEMS
3D Culture Systems
Digital Pathology
Smart Pills
Hybrid Imaging Tech
Medical Robotics
Combination Devices
Technology Impact Across Sectors
Self-Driving Automobiles
Google has been working on this for four years now.
Automobile manufacturers are also researching including GM, BMW and Audi
February 2012 – Nevada passes first laws in the USA to allow driverless cars on its highways.
General Motors predicts the technology will be standard by 2020.
Convergence of different industries? Innovation ‘White Space’?
2013 Predictions
• Cloud computing becomes a strategic, business issue
• Cloud computing, together with ‘big data’ and mobility is driving innovation and
disruption
• Uptake of applications and services from NBN is key
• IT departments are shrinking. They will focus on providing business services
and managing processes
• IT buying behaviour will become more complex as decision making spreads
well beyond IT departments
• Technology driven cross industry convergence and industry transformation will
become apparent
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For Additional Information
Donna JeremiahCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+61 (0) 8247 8927 djeremiah@frost.com
Carrie LowCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+603 6204 5910carrie.low@frost.com
Jessie LohCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+65 6890 0942jessie.loh@frost.com