Post on 28-Sep-2020
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein
(and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein
(and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
Trends in Oil Supply and DemandWashington, D.C.October 20, 2005
Trends in Oil Supply and DemandWashington, D.C.October 20, 2005
Scott A. NaumanCorporate Planning
Scott A. NaumanCorporate Planning
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein
(and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein
(and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K. This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
A View to 2030A View to 2030
The Outlook for EnergyThe Outlook for Energy
Energy Outlook BasisEnergy Outlook Basis
• Energy Outlook Buildup – Energy demand by countries and end use sectors– Total energy growth linked to economic drivers– Incorporates efficiency improvements– Fuel shares consider trends, economics, supply
• Oil & Gas supply outlook– Ultimate recoverable resources estimated– Production profiles modeled for key countries
• Outlook based on key assumptions– Growing population, improving living standards– Ongoing improvement in efficiency– Timely and adequate energy supplies– Technology advances for supply and demand
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 2005 2030
OilOil
GasGas
CoalCoal
OtherOther
Energy Supply/DemandMBDOEMBDOE
Global Population - 80% in Developing AreasGlobal Population - 80% in Developing Areas
0.40.4
AfricaAfrica0.80.8
Middle EastMiddle East0.20.2
Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian0.30.3
0.40.4
EuropeEurope0.60.6
Asia PacificAsia Pacific0.20.2
Asia PacificAsia Pacific3.23.2
Latin AmericaLatin America
North AmericaNorth America
WorldWorld6.0 B6.0 B
2000
2000 Non-OECDNon-OECD
OECDOECD
Source: World BankSource: World Bank
Global Population - 2030Global Population - 2030
Latin AmericaLatin America0.60.6
1.1%1.1%
AfricaAfrica1.31.3
1.7%1.7%
Middle EastMiddle East0.30.3
1.7%1.7%
Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian0.30.3
- 0.2%- 0.2%
North AmericaNorth America0.50.5
0.8%0.8% EuropeEurope0.60.6
0.1%0.1%
Asia PacificAsia Pacific0.20.2
0.0%0.0%
Asia PacificAsia Pacific4.24.2
0.9%0.9%
WorldWorld8.0 B8.0 B
0.9% per year0.9% per year
2000
2000
2030
2030
Non-OECDNon-OECD
OECDOECD6.0 B6.0 B
Source: World BankSource: World Bank
Global GDP - 20% in Developing AreasGlobal GDP - 20% in Developing Areas
OECDOECD
WorldWorld$31.5 T ($2000)$31.5 T ($2000)
2000
2000
Non-OECDNon-OECD
$11.1$11.1
$1.5$1.5
EuropeEurope$8.9$8.9
Asia PacificAsia Pacific$5.7$5.7
AfricaAfrica$0.6$0.6
Middle EastMiddle East$0.6$0.6
Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian$0.4$0.4
Asia PacificAsia Pacific$2.7$2.7North AmericaNorth America
Latin AmericaLatin America
Global GDP - 2030Global GDP - 2030
OECDOECD
WorldWorld$70.6 T ($2000)$70.6 T ($2000)
2.7% per year2.7% per year
2000
2000
2030
2030
Non-OECDNon-OECD
North AmericaNorth America
2.6%2.6%
$24.2$24.2
Latin AmericaLatin America
2.9%2.9%
$3.5$3.5
EuropeEurope
2.0%2.0%
$16.2$16.2
Asia PacificAsia Pacific
1.6%1.6%
$9.2$9.2
AfricaAfrica
3.4%3.4%
$1.6$1.6
Middle EastMiddle East
2.8%2.8%
$1.4$1.4
Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian
4.0%4.0%
$1.2$1.2
Asia PacificAsia Pacific
5.4%5.4%
$13.3$13.3
$31.5$31.5
Energy Use - 50% in Developing CountriesEnergy Use - 50% in Developing Countries
5757
99 AfricaAfrica1111
Middle EastMiddle East1111
Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian1818
EuropeEurope3737
Asia PacificAsia Pacific1717
WorldWorld205 MBDOE205 MBDOE
2000
2000
Non-OECDNon-OECD
OECDOECD
North AmericaNorth America
Latin AmericaLatin America
Asia PacificAsia Pacific4444
North AmericaNorth America6868
0.6%0.6%
WorldWorld334 MBDOE334 MBDOE
1.6% per year1.6% per year
2000
2000
2030
2030
Non-OECDNon-OECD
Latin AmericaLatin America
2.2%2.2%
1818 AfricaAfrica
2.0%2.0%
1919
Middle EastMiddle East
1.9%1.9%
1919
Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian
1.3%1.3%
2727
Asia PacificAsia Pacific
3.2%3.2%
113113
EuropeEurope4747
0.8%0.8%
Asia PacificAsia Pacific2323
0.9%0.9%
OECDOECD
Energy Use - 2030Energy Use - 2030
205205
Energy Intensity - Declining Trend AcceleratesEnergy Intensity - Declining Trend Accelerates
0
2
4
6
8
10
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Non-OECD
OECD
Barrels of Oil Equivalent per $K GDP
-1.8%-1.8%
-1.5%-1.5%
-1.2%-1.2%
Average Growth / Yr. 1980 - 2000
Average Growth / Yr. 1980 - 2000
-1.4%-1.4%
2000 - 2030 2000 - 2030
Energy Demand GrowsEnergy Demand Grows
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
1.6%1.6%
1.7%1.7%
2.0%2.0%
1.7%1.7%
1.3%1.3%
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
ElectricityElectricity
TransportTransportChemicalsChemicals
Heat/Other *Heat/Other *
Energy by UseMBDOE
* Heat/Other includes Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Agriculture * Heat/Other includes Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Agriculture
Energy Demand GrowsEnergy Demand Grows
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Energy by Type
OilOil
GasGas
CoalCoal
OtherOther
MBDOE
1.6%1.6%
1.8%1.8%
1.4%1.4%
1.8%1.8%
1.6%1.6%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
1.6%1.6%
1.7%1.7%
2.0%2.0%
1.7%1.7%
1.3%1.3%
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
ElectricityElectricity
TransportTransportChemicalsChemicals
Heat/Other *Heat/Other *
Energy by UseMBDOE
* Heat/Other includes Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Agriculture * Heat/Other includes Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Agriculture
Oil and Gas Remain PredominantOil and Gas Remain Predominant
0
1
2
3
4
1980 2005 20300
20
40
60
80
1980 2005 20300
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 2005 2030
Total Energy Other Energy Wind & Solar
NuclearNuclear
HydroHydro
Biomass,MSW
Biomass,MSW
Wind & SolarWind & Solar
OilOil
GasGas
CoalCoal
OtherOther
MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE
1.8%1.8%
1.6%1.6%
1.8%1.8%
1.4%1.4%
1.6%1.6%
1.3%1.3%
1.9%1.9%
1.4%1.4% 9.6%9.6%
11.1%11.1%
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
SolarSolar
WindWind
12.4%12.4%
Oil Primarily Meeting Transport DemandOil Primarily Meeting Transport Demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 2005 2030
Oil
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 2005 20300
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 2005 2030
Gas CoalMBDOE MBDOE MBDOE
ElectricityElectricity
TransportTransport
ChemicalsChemicals
Heat/OtherHeat/Other
1.1%1.1%
1.5%1.5%
1.7%1.7%
- 0.2%- 0.2%
1.5%1.5%
2.0%2.0%
2.2%2.2%
1.3%1.3%
2.3%2.3%
1.4%1.4%
1.8%1.8% 1.8%1.8%
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
Oil Growth Led by Non-OECD Transport DemandOil Growth Led by Non-OECD Transport Demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 2005 2030
OECDMBD
ElectricityElectricity
TransportTransport
ChemicalsChemicals
Heat/OtherHeat/Other
Light Duty Vehicles
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 2005 2030
Non-OECDMBD
0.1%0.1%
0.5%0.5%
0.6%0.6%
- 2.1%- 2.1%
0.3%0.3%
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
1.9%1.9%
3.4%3.4%
3.4%3.4%
0.6%0.6%
2.5%2.5%
0
1
10
100
1000
100 1,000 10,000 100,000Income per Capita ($)
Vehi
cles
per
100
0 pe
ople
Personal Vehicles Function of Income Per CapitaPersonal Vehicles Function of Income Per CapitaHistorical dataHistorical data
OECDOECD
Non-OECDNon-OECD
0.10.1
0
500
1000
1500
2000 2015 2030
Total FleetTotal Fleet
OECDOECD
Non-OECDNon-OECD
MillionMillion
5.5%5.5%
1.0%1.0%
Average Growth
Average Growth
Vehicle FleetVehicle Fleet
North America
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2010 2020 2030
MillionMillion
Light Duty Fleet
GasolineGasoline
DieselDiesel
HybridHybrid1.2%1.2%
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
Europe
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2010 2020 2030
MillionMillion
0.9%0.9%
Asia Pacific
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2010 2020 2030
MillionMillion
4.7%4.7%
Vehicle FuelsVehicle Fuels
Asia Pacific
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2010 2020 2030
Light Duty Fuels
MBDOEMBDOE
2.4%2.4%3.4%3.4%
3.8%3.8%
3.7%3.7%
Europe
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2010 2020 2030
MBDOEMBDOE
-0.5%-0.5%
1.8%1.8%
-1.6%-1.6%
North America
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2010 2020 2030
MBDOEMBDOE
CNG/LPGCNG/LPG
GasolineGasoline
DieselDiesel
0.1%0.1%
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
Average Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030
2.6%2.6%
0.0%0.0%
Conventional Oil Resources - 2005Conventional Oil Resources - 2005
North AmericaNorth America
Latin AmericaLatin America
EuropeEurope1.01.0
Middle EastMiddle East0.30.3
AfricaAfrica
0.10.1
Asia PacificAsia Pacific
0.40.4
Russia/CaspianRussia/Caspian
2.2Remaining2.2Remaining
Produced YE 2004Produced YE 2004
3.2 TBO3.2 TBO
WorldWorld
0.20.2
0.20.2
0.10.1
Conventional* Crude and Condensate (TBO)Conventional* Crude and Condensate (TBO)
* Excludes frontier resources – oil sands, extra heavy oil, shale oil* Excludes frontier resources – oil sands, extra heavy oil, shale oil
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Liquids Production - ex OPEC CrudeLiquids Production - ex OPEC CrudeMBD
Non-OPEC Crude + CondensateNon-OPEC Crude + Condensate
OPEC Condensate OPEC Condensate NGL’sNGL’s
BiofuelsBiofuelsOtherOther
Oil Sands Oil Sands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Liquids DemandLiquids DemandMBD
Liquids Demand
Non-OPEC Crude + CondensateNon-OPEC Crude + Condensate
OPEC Condensate OPEC Condensate NGL’sNGL’s
BiofuelsBiofuelsOtherOther
Oil Sands Oil Sands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Call on OPECCall on OPECMBD
OPEC CrudeOPEC Crude
Liquids Demand
~28~28
~30~30
~37~37~47~47
Non-OPEC Crude + CondensateNon-OPEC Crude + Condensate
OPEC Condensate OPEC Condensate NGL’sNGL’s
BiofuelsBiofuelsOtherOther
Oil Sands Oil Sands
Technology Essential to Meet Supply ChallengesTechnology Essential to Meet Supply ChallengesReservoir ImagingHarsh Environments
Enhanced Oil RecoveryMeans Field, Texas
CO2flood
1982 1990 1995 2003
Cumulative Production (MBO)
Pro
duct
ion
Rat
e (K
BD
)
120 260
28% 32% 35% 40%
Actual Production
Recovery5
10
15Extended Reach Drilling
6 miles6 miles
The Outlook for Energy to 2030The Outlook for Energy to 2030
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 2005 2030
OilOil
GasGas
CoalCoal
OtherOther
Energy by TypeMBDOE
• Energy demand will increase over 50% by 2030– Driven by economic progress & population growth
• 80% of energy demand growth in non-OECD
• Energy efficiency trends to accelerate
• Oil, gas and coal remain predominant– Oil resources adequate to sustain growth– Gas market increasingly global– Coal growth linked to non-OECD economic gains
• Technology critical to meeting energy challenges
The Outlook for EnergyThe Outlook for EnergyFor more information regarding ExxonMobil’s Energy Outlook
please visit the link below:
www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook
For more information regarding ExxonMobil’s Energy Outlook please visit the link below:
www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook