Post on 02-Apr-2015
The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 1
The National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) Project
Daniel P. Eleuterio, Office of Naval ResearchJessie Carman, NOAA Office of Ocean and Atmosphere Research
Fred Toepfer, NOAA National Weather ServiceDave McCarren, Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command
US THORPEX Legacy Planning MeetingJune 5, 2014
The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 2
National ESPC OverviewAn interagency collaboration, initiated between Navy, Air Force and NOAA and expanded to DoE, NASA, and NSF in 2012, for coordination of research to operations of a National earth system analysis and prediction capability. The original project combined global weather models in an operational synoptic multi-model ensemble under NUOPC.
Seeks improved communication and synergy, for global prediction of weather, ocean, and sea ice conditions at weather to short-term climate variability timescales. • Common prediction requirements and forecast model standards
that enable agencies to improve leverage and collaboration.• A national research agenda that will improve prediction across
scales from days to decades. • Cooperative focus projects to assess predictability of global
scale high impact environmental conditions to inform S&T, R&D, and transition to operations.
• Towards an multi-model ensemble based air-sea-land coupled global prediction capability
http://espc.oar.noaa.gov/
The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 3
• Hail, Tornadoes, Tropical Storms & Hurricanes• Winter Storms, Ice• Extreme Heat and Cold• Droughts and Floods• Climate Adaptation• Sea Level Rise• Commerce and Navigation• Aviation Transportation• Food Security• Air and Water Quality• Ecosystem Health• Private Sector and National Security
National Weather EnterprisePublic Safety and Economic Well-being of Nation
Public-Private Partnership
Challenges to Achieve a Weather-Ready Nation
Home Field Emphasis
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Warfighting First – Operate Forward – Be Ready
Defense Department Challenges – A Global Force for Good
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We provide worldwide forecasts to support DoD Operations – from the tropics to the poles, and from the depths of the ocean to the edges of space, across the
coast to support stability operations, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.
Home Field Advantage… at the Away Games
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From Sources of Predictability at Weather to Seasonal/ Climate Variability Timescales to Operational Prediction
through Global Coupled Model Ensembles
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NRC Study on Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting
This study will identify: • Potential sources of predictability and assess their relative value for advancing
predictive skill; • Process studies for incorporating new sources of predictability into forecast
models;• Opportunities for application and advancement of atmosphere-ocean-land-sea
ice coupled models at S2S timescales (a few days to several weeks); • Key observations needed for model initialization and verification of S2S forecasts;• Techniques for uncertainty quantification and verification of probabilistic
products; and• Infrastructure requirements for computational, data storage and communication,
and visualization techniques needed to make high resolution data assimilating global coupled ensembles an operational reality.
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Partnerships:ESPCNOPPHFIP
NMMEUSGCRP
USCLIVARNUOPC
WWRP/WCRP
National ESPC
Need: Seamless Full Earth System(or at least “lightly seamed”)
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Design infrastructure for operational implementation for coupled system• Define implementation across operational systems, architecture requirements,
cycling setup including DA
Coupled Model Development
Navy ESPC Highlights - Infrastructure
•“Operational Implementation Design” has details on data volumes, resources required, and operational job distributions •“In press” as Naval Research Laboratory Memorandum Report 7320--13-9498 http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pubs.php search under author Metzger
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NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) Earth System Prediction R2O (draft)
SchedulingProject Information and HighlightsScope: Improved Model Guidance: Coupled NWP to 30 days1) Expand critical weather forecasting research to
operations (R2O)2) Accelerate development and implementation of
improved global weather & ocean prediction models3) Improve data assimilation techniques4) Improve software architecture and system
engineering5) Promote hurricane and other high impact forecast
models that meet societal requirements
Estimated Benefits:6) Address growing service demands 7) Increased accuracy and lead time for high impact
weather forecasts 8) More reliable probabilistic forecasts 9) Effectively mitigate economic disruption from
hurricanes and other predictable “strong signal” weather phenomena
Milestone Date
Initiate Effort: Charter approved 02/2014
Planning Teams Organized 03/2014
Develop Spend Plan and Research Priorities
06/2014
Develop Next Generation Global Prediction System Implementation Plan
09/2014
Award External Grants 3/2015
Implement NEMS Physics Interoperability Interface
9/2015
Demonstrate Coupled NGGPS 9/2015
Issues/Risks1. Increased WCOSS Developmental
Computing Capacity Needed2. Probabilistic operational skill at
longer lead times needs to be better quantified and communicated.
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Air Force Post-Processed Ensemble Products
Probability of SevereFighter Index of Thermal Stress (FITS)
Probability of Surface Level Reduced Visibility
Unlike Navy and NOAA, USAF does not develop their own global model nor share their forecast fields due to their licensing agreement. Instead they provide joint NUOPC Ensemble processing.
Probability of Surface wind > 25, 35, 50 kts Lower and upper level moderate and
severe turbulence Icing at 500, 700, 850, 925 mb Surface viz < 1, 3, 5 nm Surface temp < 32, > 90 Many Precip products and others
All provided to NCEP NOMADS servers as operational fields, 6 hrs time steps out to 10 day leads for all fields.
Plans for longer lead times and higher resolution in 2014/15.
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Inter-agency Atmospheric Weather and Coupled Climate R2O Ensembles
• Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP: 1-7 days)• Providing rapid improvement R2O capability for US (NOAA), Global (Navy) Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity• Distributed Production Centers leverage multi-agency resources
• National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NAEFS/ NUOPC: 5-16 days)
• Improving medium-range forecasts and probabilities of specific events.• Distributed Production Centers leverage multi-agency missions and resources • Planned extension to 30 days (poss. 45 days)• Increasing resolution to 1/2˚ in 2015• Incorporating Common Modeling Architecture (ESMF)
• National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME: 3-9 months)• Multi-model Climate Ensembles: more accurate than any one model• Distributed Production: leverages multi-agency and
international computer infrastructure and investments (US, Canada)• Currently a Phase II research project through FY14 for higher
resolution output suitable for sub-seasonal updates (Weeks 3-12).
Collaborative Programs Across Scales:Multi-model ensembles
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HFIP Ensemble
DRAFT Interagency National ESPC Fielding Plan (2018)
Boundary conditions for TC Track & Intensity, TC genesis, Hi Res Littoral air/ocean operations, EM/EO/NBC predictionDrought/Flood, Heat Wave/Freeze Prediction, Storm Surge/Inundation/Erosion, Beach Warnings, Safety/Emergency/Public Health Operations, Ship & Aircraft Routing . . .
NAVGEM/HYCOM/CICE/WW-3NAVGEM Ensemble
NUOPC/NAEFS Ensemble
Climate Fcst System (CFSv2/3)National Multi-Model Ensemble
(NMME)
Strategic Planning, Environmental Stress Instability, Arctic Sea Lanes, Ship and Land Transportation Infrastructure Management, Agriculture/Fisheries Planning & Ecosystem Management, Water Resource Management, Energy Sector Planning . . .
Static Climatology/Reanalysis
based on past environment
“Climatology Products”
Navy and DoD Capability
NOAA Capability
National Global Prediction Needs
CFS-R, HURDAT, etc.
DOD Applications of NOAA managed
Seasonal Ensemble Prediction
NUOPC Ensemble
Forecast Lead8-14 Days
Forecast Lead15-30 Days
Forecast Lead31 – 90 Days
Forecast Lead3 – 18 Months
Annual to DecadalForecast Lead
0-7 Days
GFS, HYCOM, WW-3GEFS Ensemble
Multi-Model Ensemble
TC-COAMPSOthers
HWRFGFDLGFS
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The call for Extended Range Products in the S2S Gap(Federal/Operational, Credible, Reliable, Calibrated, and Probabilistic)
• When initialized anywhere in phase space, the solution collapses toward this attractor. However, behavior of the trajectory is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions. -- Ed Lorenz (1963)
• Every day meteorologists predict next week’s weather…..Research is underway to develop models that will help them make predictions on an even longer timescale, seasonal forecasts of monsoon rains for example. --Tim Palmer, A weather eye on unpredictability (1991)
• Nearly 25 years later are we as far along as we should be?
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