Post on 27-Dec-2019
The Hardwood Forests in Changing Times - Adapting to New Realities
Charlie Becker
Utilization and Marketing Manager
Topic Areas
• The Hardwood Resource
• Market and Economic Conditions
• Thoughts on the Future
Hardwood Resource
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
Wh
ite
oak
/ r
ed o
ak /
hic
kory
Suga
r m
aple
/ b
eech
/ y
ello
w b
irch
Mix
ed u
pla
nd
har
dw
oo
ds
Lob
lolly
pin
e /
har
dw
oo
dP
ost
oak
/ b
lack
jack
oak
Suga
rber
ry /
hac
kber
ry /
elm
/ g
reen
…Sw
eetg
um
/ N
utt
all o
ak /
will
ow
oak
Har
d m
aple
/ b
assw
oo
dSw
eetg
um
/ y
ello
w-p
op
lar
Swee
tbay
/ s
wam
p t
up
elo
/ r
ed m
aple
Yello
w-p
op
lar
/ w
hit
e o
ak /
no
rth
ern
…A
spen
Ch
estn
ut
oak
/ b
lack
oak
/ s
carl
et o
akW
hit
e o
akEl
m /
ash
/ b
lack
locu
stC
her
ry /
wh
ite
ash
/ y
ello
w-p
op
lar
Sou
ther
n s
cru
b o
akSa
ssaf
ras
/ p
ersi
mm
on
Red
map
le /
up
lan
dC
hes
tnu
t o
akN
ort
her
n r
ed o
akSy
cam
ore
/ p
ecan
/ A
mer
ican
elm
Yello
w-p
op
lar
Red
map
le /
oak
East
ern
red
ced
ar /
har
dw
oo
dEa
ster
n w
hit
e p
ine
/ n
ort
her
n r
ed…
Oth
er h
ard
wo
od
sB
lack
ash
/ A
mer
ican
elm
/ r
ed m
aple
Bal
dcy
pre
ss /
wat
er t
up
elo
Sho
rtle
af p
ine
/ o
akR
ed m
aple
/ lo
wla
nd
Riv
er b
irch
/ s
ycam
ore
Vir
gin
ia p
ine
/ so
uth
ern
red
oak
Pap
er b
irch
Swam
p c
hes
tnu
t o
ak /
ch
erry
bar
k o
akSl
ash
pin
e /
har
dw
oo
dSi
lver
map
le /
Am
eric
an e
lmB
lack
ch
erry
Oth
er p
ine
/ h
ard
wo
od
Ove
rcu
p o
ak /
wat
er h
icko
ryW
illo
w
Acr
es
Forest Types
Total
Private
Total Eastern U.S. Forest Land - 443,823,672 AcresPrivate Eastern U.S. Forest Land - 362,069,614 Acres
Top Eastern U.S. Hardwood Forest Types
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Bil
lio
n C
ub
ic F
ee
t
Species Group
Other red oaks
Soft maple
Other soft hardwoods
Select white oaks
Yellow-poplar
Other white oaks
Select red oaks
Hard maple
Hickory
Sweetgum
Ash
Cottonwood and aspen
Tupelo and blackgum
Beech
Other hard hardwoods
Noncommercial hardwoods
Yellow birch
Eastern U.S. Hardwood Forestland Net Volume
Eastern U. S. Hardwood Regeneration
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Se
ed
lin
gs
(mill
ion
s)
Species Group
Noncommercial hardwoods
Other soft hardwoods
Soft maple
Sweetgum
Other red oaks
Other hard hardwoods
Cottonwood and aspen
Ash
Hard maple
Beech
Tupelo and blackgum
Hickory
Yellow-poplar
Select white oaks
Other white oaks
Select red oaks
Yellow birch
Basswood
Emerald Ash Borer
Gypsy Moth
15.9 Million Acres
80% Privately Owned
Virginia Forest Cover
61.5 % Forested
Virginia Forestland Acres
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
19071940195719661977198619922001200720102013
Millio
n a
cre
s
Year
Trend & Projection of Timberland Area in Virginia*
12,500,000
13,000,000
13,500,000
14,000,000
14,500,000
15,000,000
15,500,000
16,000,000
16,500,000
19
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
20
13
20
16
20
19
20
22
20
25
20
28
20
31
20
34
20
37
20
40
20
43
20
46
20
49
20
52
20
55
20
58
Acr
es
Year
High Projection
Trend & AverageProjection
Low Projection
*Southern Forest Futures Project & FIA
Since 1940, total volume has more than doubled from 15.5 to 36.1 billion cubic feet.
YEAR
Forest Growth(Volume of Live Trees on All Timberland)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
1940 1957 1966 1977 1986 1992 2001 2010 2013
Hardwoods
Softwoods
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
2001 2007 2011 2012
Statewide Annual Net Growth & Removals for Softwood & Hardwood
(MM Tons)
Hardwood Growth
Hardwood Removals
Source: USFS-FIA
Annual Net Growth and Removals
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
2001 2007 2011 2012
Coastal Plain Annual Net Growth & Removals for Softwood and Hardwood
(MM Tons)
Hardwood Growth
Hardwood Removals
Source: USFS-FIA
Coastal Plain Net Growth and Removals
Volume & Area of Hardwood, 2013
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Tho
usa
nd
Acr
es
Federal
Private & State
Reduced Acres
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Mil
lio
n C
ub
ic f
ee
t
Federal
Private & State
Ten Most Common Trees in VA
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Pe
rce
nt
Species
% of Total Volume
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Pe
rce
nt
Species
% of Total Seedling Number*
*Advanced Regeneration - seedlings and saplings 1"-3" DiameterExcludes Understory tree species
• Frequent, moderate disturbance
• Abandoned marginal farmland
• Reduced wildlife (deer)
• Charcoal production• Chestnut blight• Fire
Why did oaks become so common?
Invasive Species
• Diseases - Chestnut Blight, Dutch Elm
Disease, Oak Wilt, Laurel Wilt, Thousand Canker Disease
• Insects - Gypsy Moth, Emerald Ash
Borer, Asian Longhorn Beetle
• Plants – Ailanthus, Honeysuckle, Kudzu,
Oriental Bittersweet, Autumn Olive, Stilt Grass, Paulownia
• “Deer”
Invasive Species
• 405,000 Individuals and Family landowners own 10.6 million acres of forest in Virginia
• 95% own less than 100 acres
• Average forest landowner owns between 30 and 50 acres
• Landowners 55 and older own over 70% of forestland
source: National Woodland Owners Survey http://www.fia.fs.fed.us/nwos
Non-Industrial Private Forest Ownership
So What Will the Forests of Tomorrow Look Like?
It Depends
Market & Economic Conditions
Present Conditions
• Low fuel prices are making it more economical to harvest and ship products
• Strong dollar makes our products more expensive overseas and imports cheaper
• Economic slowdowns in our major export markets are reducing demand
• U.S. housing and economy slowly improving• European policy impacting bioenergy markets• Virginia saw timber harvests at record levels• Legal & sustainable wood criteria is increasing
New Users of Hardwood Forest Resources
• Enviva Pellet Mills (1 VA, 2 NC)
• 5 Dominion Biomass & Hybrid Power Plants
• Northern VA Electric Coop Power Plant
• MeadWestvaco Biomass Power Project
• Expansion of Grade & Industrial Hardwood Mills
• Some Expansion of Housing Products
Pulpwood Harvest
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Co
rds
YEAR
Pine Cords
Hardwood Cords
30%
Hardwood
Decline
Sawtimber Harvest
30+%
Harvest
Decline
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
10
00
Bo
ard
Fe
et
YEAR
MBF Hardwood
MBF Pine
Industry Trend
Imports
Thoughts on the Future
• The forests we have today were shaped by conditions
over the last century or more
• Future forests will be different due to several factors,
many of them we can influence
• All users of our forests need to look at the younger
stands to better understand what the future resource
will look like and the impact it may have.
• Increasing markets for low-quality wood offers
opportunities to improve forest health and quality.
• Improved harvesting and growing techniques, and
forest management can help address forest health,
quality and species concerns.
2005 White Oak Crop Tree Release Study
4.75
5.89
6.15
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Av
erag
e D
BH
(in
)
Age
Untreated Released Released and Fertilized
Thoughts on the Future
• Forestry & forest industries are a sizeable portion of many state’s economy and employment and will continue to be, particularly in some regions.
• Continued loss and fragmentation of forest land, along with other competing forest uses will affect future availability of wood resources
• As the economy and industry improves, forests in some regions may see removals exceed growth.
Forest-Related Takeaways
• Hardwood forests are and will continue to be impacted by global markets through:• Demand for our forest products
• International policies and competition
• Forest health concerns – invasive species, insects & diseases, etc.
• Changes in the global economy
Thoughts on the Future
• The 24/7 world expects immediate responses and answers to situations, however, we work with a resource that takes decades to develop and to make significant changes in it’s make up
• Landowners should strive for healthy, diverse forests which will provide more options to adapt to future conditions.
Additional Information
Charles W. Becker III, CF
Utilization & Marketing Manager
Virginia Department of Forestry
900 Natural Resources Dr., Suite 800
Charlottesville, VA 22903
434-220-9115
434-296-2369 fax
charlie.becker@dof.virginia.gov
www.dof.virginia.gov