Post on 09-Jul-2020
[Table_MainInfo] [Table_Title]
/
[Table_Summary] 1995
2007 2014 2016 LED
LED
2019 /
100.4 /23.0 2019 ROE 52.36%
1
& 50 -230
2
&
/ /LED
2.25/1.85/1.37
&
3
2019 79.8%
&
2020-2022 EPS 4.2 4.8 5.5
PE 43.1X 37.8X 33.4X
[Table_Finance] 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E
9,065 10,040 10,441 11,747 13,090
(+/-)% 25.21% 10.76% 3.99% 12.50% 11.44%
1,677 2,304 2,542 2,899 3,275
(+/-)% 30.45% 37.38% 10.35% 14.05% 12.94%
2.79 3.84 4.24 4.83 5.46
0.00 47.51 43.05 37.75 33.42
0.00 19.72 13.42 9.90 7.64
(%) 51.63% 41.50% 31.18% 26.23% 22.86%
(%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
( ) 540 540 600 600 600
[Table_Invest]
[Table_Market] 2020/5/28
6 225.5
182.41
12 71.34 193.99
108,240
600
A 600
B /H 0/0
2
[Table_PicQuote]
-9%
16%
41%
66%
91%
116%
2020/2/5 2020/2/25 2020/3/16 2020/4/5 2020/4/25 2020/5/15
[Table_Trend] % 1M 3M 12M
18% 5% 0%
18% 7% -5%
[Table_Report]
603195
&
20200427
20200520
[Table_Author]
S0550516120001
021-20363260 Tangkai@nesc.com
S0550120030010
021-20363260 zhongth@nesc.cn
603195
2020-05-31
2 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
1. ............................................................................................................ 5
1.1. .................................................................................................... 5
1.2. ................................................. 5
1.3. 2019 2020Q1 .................................................. 6
1.4. ............................................................................................................ 8
2. ....................................................................... 9
2.1. ............................................................ 9
2.1.1. .................................................................................................... 9
2.1.2. ........................................................................................................... 10
2.2. ................................................... 12
2.2.1. ................................................................................................................................. 12
2.2.2. ........................................................................................................................ 13
2.3. LED ........................................................................ 16
2.3.1. LED ................................................................................................................................................. 16
2.3.2. LED ........................................................................................... 17
3. ................ 19
3.1. ........................................................................................... 19
3.2. ............................................................................................... 23
3.2.1. ............................................................................................................................ 26
3.2.2. .................................................................................................. 27
3.3. ......................................................................... 30
4. .......................................................................................................... 32
5. .......................................................................................................... 32
3 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
1 ........................................................................................................................... 6
2 2015-2020Q1 ............................................................................................................. 6
3 2015-2019 ....................................................................................................... 6
4 2015-2020Q1 .......................................................................................................... 7
5 ....................................................................................................................... 7
6 2015-2019 & ................................................................................................. 7
7 2015-2019 .............................................................................................................. 7
8 2015-2019 ROE ................................................................................................... 8
9 ........................................................................................................................... 8
10 2008-2014 ............................................................................................... 9
11 ............................................................................................................... 9
12 2012-2018 .......................................................................................... 9
13 ................................................................................................................ 10
14 .......................................................................................................11
15 & ....................................................................................................11
16 & ............................................................................................... 12
17 ...................................................................................................... 12
18 ................................................................................................................ 12
19 2019 ........................................................................................................ 13
20 ......................................................................................................... 13
21 ...................................................................................................... 13
22 ................................................................................................................ 14
23 ................................................................................................................ 14
24 ...................................................................................................... 14
25 / ........................................................................................................ 14
26 LED ..................................................................................................... 16
27 ............................................................................................... 17
28 ................................................................................................................ 17
29 LED ............................................................................................................ 18
30 LED ................................................................................................. 18
31 LED ................................................................................................................... 19
32 LED .............................................................................................................. 19
33 LED ........................................................................................................ 19
34 LED .............................................................................................. 19
35 ................................................................................................................ 21
36 ................................................................................................................ 21
37 3% ................................................................................................... 22
38 .................................................................................................................................. 22
39 .................................................................................................................................. 22
40 ...................................................................................................... 23
41 ................................................................................. 24
42 & ..................................................................................... 24
4 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
43 .................................................................................................................... 25
44 ........................................................................................... 28
45 .................................................................................................................... 28
46 ........................................................................................ 29
47 ...................................................................................................... 29
48 2019 .............................................................................................. 30
49 ...................................................................................................... 30
50 / .......................................................................................... 30
51 / ..................................................................................................... 30
52 OEM ........................................................................................................................ 31
53 ...................................................................................................... 31
54 / ..................................................................................................... 31
55 ...................................................................................................... 31
1 ...............................................................................................................11
2: ........................................................................................................... 15
3 ......................................................................................................................... 15
4 LED ....................................................................................................................... 17
5 .................................................................................. 19
6 .............................................................................................................. 20
7 ......................................................................................................................... 26
8 .................................................................................................... 26
9 .............................................................................................................. 27
10 ........................................................................................................................... 32
5 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
1.
1.1.
LED 2001
2007
2014 LED 2016
2019 12 100
1.2.
1995-2006
90
1996
2001
2007 2007
2014 80 90
G29 G22
2017
40%
2010
2010
2015
2017
2016 2018 3.46 8.34 CAGR
55.19%
2014 LED&
2014 LED
LED 2016
2019H1 / LED 45.5%/ 60%
6 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
1
1.3. 2019 2020Q1
& 2016-2019 53.66
100.40 14.07 23.04
CAGR 13.11% 2017
LED
&
2019 82.28%
2019 /
4.24%/14.72% LED&
2020
& 13.8 38.0%
1.7 57.7%
2 2015-2020Q1 3 2015-2019
Wind Wind
7 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
4 2015-2020Q1 5
Wind Wind
20%
2017-2018 2019
2017
2018
6 2015-2019 & 7 2015-2019
Wind Wind
ROE 2015-2019 ROE 61.43% 69.06%
63.97% 69.60% 52.36% 60% ROE
/
1
8 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
8 2015-2019 ROE
Wind
1.4.
5.4
6,000
87.26%
2017 12
2017
358 PE 27.9X 2017 66.3
/ 33.2 / 2020 4 24
&
452 79.93 / 62.89 23 5000
2020-2024
2020-2023
9
9 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
2.
2.1.
2.1.1.
2013 120 2019 200
& 2013
18,31 2018 28,23 CAGR 9.04%
2012 -2018 2620.51 3903.48
10 2008-2014
11 12 2012-2018
70%
66.39% 30
2020 2 15 53,92
16.33 5,610 2018 2.09
48.4
10 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
&
30%
2017
3C 4
13
Wind
2.1.2.
1995
USB
41 2,800
WIFI
11 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
1
WIFI
US
B
USB USB
2017 2018 20%
14 15 &
Wind
2017 2018
2017
30.57% 7.84%
2017 / 27.03%/
30.06%
12 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
16 & 17
Wind
2.2.
2.2.1.
2018
196.55 10.1% 2020
231.6
18
Wind
2000 2018
13.7%
TCL 10.9% 6.2% 4.6% 4.6% CR5
40%
13 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
19 2019
Wind
2.2.2.
2019 14.72% 46%
20 21
&
2017
2016/ 2017 146%/ 112% 2018
2018/ 2019H1
31.55%/ 23.38%
G18
G20 G21
14 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
22 23
&
1 2018
2019 2
&
24 25 /
15 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
2:
3
16 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
2.3. LED
2.3.1. LED
LED 2017 LED 5,343
47.70% 2,548.61 2009 2017 LED
CAGR 54.62% LED
2011 11 1 2012
2014 2016 100w 60w 15w
2017
2020
10000 LED
70% 80 90
LED
26 LED
Wind
LED
LED
17 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
27 28
2.3.2 LED
LED 2014 LED
LED
4 LED
LE
D
LED MX-B12440-B
LED MH-B11R11 LED
‹
LED 3 3.5 4
3W 65mm/80mm 5W 80mm
18 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
LE
D
LED 15W, 155.6*93.5mm
20W 180.6*121mm/226*124.6mm
LE
D
LED 3W E14/E27 5W 7W 9W
Wind
LED
2016 31.62% 2019H1 9.75%
2019H1 23.36%
29 LED 30 LED
2018
LED
LED
2019
2019
/
19 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
31 LED 32 LED /
33 LED / 34 LED
3.
3.1.
1995
2000
5
1997
2001
2002
20 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
2004 ISO9001:2000 ISO14001:2004
2006
2007
2008
2012 2012
2017 BULL 2017
2017 GB/T
35590-2017
2018
3
50 -230 USB
USB
SKU 41 2,800
33 3,000
33%
20%
6
GN-B403U
USB
USB
3*5 +3USB
1.8m
USB 5V/3.1A
59
USB
5V2A
750
10A
3
+3USB
1.8m
49
USB 6
750
42
USB
2A
3
+3USB
PC
1.63m
55
21 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
850
3
+3USB
1.5m
59
SPS2312K/93
750
3AG +3USB
1.6m-2m
USB 2.4A
59.9
PP
3
+3USB
1.8m
USB 5V/3.1A
69.9
35 36
2019
1,468
3%
22 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
37 3%
Wind
2015 3
USB 7
1 48 55
& WIFI USB
line friend
&
38 39
23 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
40
2007
3.2.
31
2016 2017 2018 2019H1 86.09%
84.81% 84.76% 86.41% 11.03% 12.96% 13.14% 11.99%
2019 1.89%
24 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
41
&
2019H1 2,333
42 &
25 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
43
1 ( )
( )
50% 40%
4%- 5% B
2 2019H1 73
32% 30% 18% 10.9
45% 36%
13.6
LED
26 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
7
2016 2017 2018 2019H1
73.27 78.14 74.6 73.1
439 453 477 472
0.40 0.43 0.56 0.62
1,669.02 1,724.94 1,563.94 1,548.73
9.97 10.43 9.10 10.89
1,580 1,541 1,525 1,569
1.68 2.12 3.02 2.85
63.10 67.68 59.67 69.41
- 6.71 13.17 13.56
- 413 373 379
- 0.22 0.22 0.29
- 162.47 353.08 357.78
8
73w 11w 13w
3.2.1.
1 2009
——
2
27 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
3
4
5
&
2019H1
9
13.39 21.68 30.17 39.84%
38.23%
2.25
6.11 9.89 11.29 46.90% 1.85
LED 8.63 13.97 11.83 33.07% 1.37
10.47 16.95 35.32 22.20% 3.37
3.2.2.
CRM
1
2 CRM + CRM
IP GPS
300-400
1 2 3
SKU
3
28 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
1
30-40
2
2016-2018 20% 15%
2018 1.73%
44 45
3
2018
29 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
2016-2018 10%
46
“ ”
50 50%
47
30 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
3.3.
2019
78.8%
PP/
48 2019 49
50 / 51 /
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2016 2017 2018 2019
LED
Wind
OEM
&
OEM
2019H1
/ PP/ ABS 4.05%/ 6.68%/ 5.04%
31 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
11.02% 7.26 / / 17.7%/ 2.27%
0.98/ 0.67 /
52 OEM 53
54 / 55
32 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
4.
2020-2022 EPS 4.2 4.8 5.5 PE 43.1X 37.8X 33.4X
LED
10
EPS PE
2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E
3.84 4.24 4.83 5.46 47.51 43.05 37.75 33.42
1.18 1.21 1.39 1.54 23.87 21.60 18.86 16.98
2.34 2.42 2.79 3.09 32.84 27.97 24.24 21.91
2.23 2.89 3.61 4.50 58.29 44.88 35.94 28.19
1.15 1.29 1.59 1.96 48.37 43.18 34.97 28.45
5.
1
2
33 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
[Table_Forcast] 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E
734 3,955 6,513 9,540 2,304 2,542 2,899 3,275
857 857 857 857 1 3 3 3
197 212 242 266 197 201 227 243
979 1,026 1,123 1,274 0 0 0 0
2,875 2,463 2,447 2,609 -2 0 0 0
5,641 8,512 11,181 14,546 -106 -117 -128 -144
-109 971 -91 -2
0 0 0 0 13 19 17 20
1,153 1,324 1,419 1,498 2,297 3,619 2,927 3,395
310 323 340 357 -1,792 -458 -368 -368
0 0 0 0 -5 60 0 0
1,775 2,131 2,383 2,632 2,172 1,468 2,561 2,644
7,417 10,643 13,565 17,178
0 0 0 0 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E
1,164 1,703 1,668 1,903
130 156 166 186 3.84 4.24 4.83 5.46
0 0 0 0 9.25 13.59 18.42 23.88
1,830 2,454 2,476 2,815 3.83 6.03 4.88 5.66
0 0 0 0
36 36 36 36 10.8% 4.0% 12.5% 11.4%
36 36 36 36 37.4% 10.4% 14.1% 12.9%
1,865 2,489 2,512 2,850
5,551 8,153 11,053 14,327 41.4% 40.8% 41.0% 40.7%
0 0 0 0 22.9% 24.3% 24.7% 25.0%
7,417 10,643 13,565 17,178
7.17 7.43 7.52 7.43
2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 60.76 60.56 59.13 59.88
10,040 10,441 11,747 13,090
5,882 6,183 6,932 7,765 25.1% 23.4% 18.5% 16.6%
75 82 93 103 3.08 3.47 4.52 5.17
-1 -3 -3 -3 2.53 3.04 4.05 4.70
725 647 717 772
379 386 431 446 7.2% 6.2% 6.1% 5.9%
-17 -3 -16 -26
3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4%
0 0 0 0 -0.2% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2%
106 117 128 144
2,769 2,987 3,400 3,843 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
-74 -16 -13 -16 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2,695 2,971 3,387 3,827
391 429 488 552 P/E 47.51 43.05 37.75 33.42
2,304 2,542 2,899 3,275 P/B 19.72 13.42 9.90 7.64
2,304 2,542 2,899 3,275 P/S 9.81 10.48 9.32 8.36
0 0 0 0 41.5% 31.2% 26.2% 22.9%
34 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
5
“ ”
R3 A B
AA ABS
“ ”
6 15%
6 5% 15%
6 -5% 5%
6 5% 15%
6 15%
6
6
6
35 / 35
[Table_PageTop]
6666 130119
28 D 100033
729 200127
1006 22A 518038
122 15 510630
021-20361121 13636606340 ruanmin@nesc.cn
021-20361229 17717370432 wuxiaoyin@nesc.cn
021-20361258 18221628116 qijian@nesc.cn
021-20361267 13262728598 chen_xh@nesc.cn
021-20361258 13120758587 Lilq@nesc.cn
021-20361112 18801903156 lirx@nesc.cn
021-20361133 18516728369 zhoujq@nesc.cn
021-20361133 13122617959 liuyq@nesc.cn
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010-58034555 13701194494 wenzc@nesc.cn
010-58034563 18501944669 zengyg@nesc.cn
010-63210813 18153683452 zhouying1@nesc.cn
0755-33975865 18938029743 liu_xuan@nesc.cn
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