400G+5G - img3.gelonghui.com · [Table_MainInfo][Table_Title] / 400G+5G [Table_Summary] 1 2 BAT 17%...
Transcript of 400G+5G - img3.gelonghui.com · [Table_MainInfo][Table_Title] / 400G+5G [Table_Summary] 1 2 BAT 17%...
[Table_MainInfo] [Table_Title]
/
400G+5G
[Table_Summary] 1
2
BAT
17% 40% ICP 3
400G 2019
2020 4 100G
400G (
( )
5G 1 4G
5G 6G/10G 25G
10G/100G 100G/200G/400G
4G RRU+BBU AAU+DU+CU
50G/100G ( 500 1000
) 4G
2.5 2 2008 3G
( )
1
500m PSM4
2 intel luxtera
100G 400G 2019
2019 -2021 7.27/10.26/12.45
PE 32X/23X/19X
400G
[Table_Finance] 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E
2,357 5,156 5,777 7,642 9,384
(+/-)% 1690.82% 118.76% 12.03% 32.28% 22.80%
162 623 727 1,026 1,245
(+/-)% 1506.36% 285.82% 16.69% 41.08% 21.37%
0.23 0.87 1.02 1.44 1.74
258.54 46.61 32.37 22.95 18.91
10.42 6.08 3.27 2.86 2.49
(%) 4.03% 13.05% 10.10% 12.47% 13.15%
(%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.27% 0.00% 0.00%
( ) 474 475 714 714 714
[Table_Invest]
[Table_Market] 2019/6/12
6 40
32.98
12 29.60 71.10
23,540
714
A 714
B /H 0/0
5
[Table_PicQuote]
-44%
-33%
-22%
-11%
0%
2018/6 2018/9 2018/12 2019/3
[Table_Trend] % 1M 3M 12M
0% -25% -33%
1% -23% -29%
[Table_Report]
300308.SZ 400G
5G --20190426
(300308.SZ)
—20180808
300308
--20180413
[Table_Author]
S0550517030001
021-20361109 [email protected]
S0550518010001
010-58034574 [email protected]
300308 /
2019-06-14
2 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
1. 5G ................................ 5
1.1. ...................................................................5
1.2. 5G ............................................................6
1.3. ...............................................................................7
1.4. + ............................................8
2. ...................................................... 9
2.1. ...................9
2.2. .................................................10
2.2.1. IAAS ..................................................................... 10
2.2.2. ................................................... 12
2.3. 400G .......................................14
2.4. 400G .......................................15
2.4.1. .................................................................... 15
2.4.2. + + + ............. 15
2.4.3. 400G 2019 ................................................... 17
3. 5G ............................... 19
3.1. 5G 4G ............................19
3.1.1. ........................................................................... 21
3.1.2. .......................................................... 21
3.1.3. ............................................................................... 22
3.1.4. 5G 4G 2.5 ............... 22
3.2. 5G ..............................................23
3.2.1. .................................................................................. 23
3.2.2. ................................................................. 23
4. .......................... 24
4.1. .............................24
4.1.1. .................................................................... 24
4.1.2. PSM4 ..................................... 25
4.2. 400G ...........................26
4.2.1. ...................................................... 26
4.2.2. 400G ........................................................ 27
5. .............................................................................. 27
6. .................................................................................. 27
6.1. .................................................................................................................27
6.2. .................................................................................................................28
6.3. .................................................................................................................29
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[Table_PageTop]
1 .................................................................................................................... 5
2 ................................................................................................................ 5
3 ................................................................................. 5
4 .................................................................................................. 6
5 ......................................................................................................... 7
6 ............................................................................. 9
7 ......................................................................................................... 9
8 ............................................................................................. 10
9 ................................................................................................ 10
10 70% .......................................................................................... 10
11 CAGR19% ................................................................................ 10
12 Spine-Leaf .................................................................................... 10
13 40% ....................................................................................11
14 TOP5 IAAS ( ) ................................................................................11
15 ..............................................................................................................11
16 TOP5 Iaas .....................................................................................11
17 2018 43% ................................................................. 12
18 AWS 60+12 ....................................................................................... 13
19 Azure 42+12 ......................................................................................... 13
20 GCP 55+9 ............................................................................................ 13
21 IBM 18+X .................................................................................................... 13
22 56+X ..................................................................................................... 13
23 (53+X) ....................................................................................................................... 13
24 IDC CAGR22%&18% ............................................................................... 14
25 ........................................................................................ 14
26 CAGR25% .............................................................. 14
27 ( ) ................................................................................................ 15
28 400G ( ) .............................................................................................. 15
29 .................................................................................................. 15
30 ............................................................................................................. 16
31 400G ................................................................................................... 18
32 ........................................................................................ 19
33 ........................................................................................ 19
34 ( :10 ) ..................................................................... 20
35 ( :10 ).................................................................. 20
36 4G5G RAN ..................................................................................................... 21
37 CRAN ................................................................................................................ 22
38 DRAN .......................................................................................................................... 22
39 ...................................................................................................... 24
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[Table_PageTop]
40 ......................................................................................................... 24
41 intel ....................................................................................................................... 25
42 CWDM4 .................................................................................................. 26
43 ...................................................................................................... 26
44 ................................................................................................................ 26
45 ....................................................................................................................... 29
1 ( ) ................................................................................................ 6
2 ............................................................................................................. 7
3 ............................................................................................................. 8
4 .................................................................................. 12
5 400G .......................................................................................... 17
6 400G ................................................................................................................ 17
7 5G ................................................................................................................ 21
8 CRAN DRAN ...................................................................... 23
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[Table_PageTop]
1. 5G
1.1. 2008
10G SFP+ 10G XFP 25G SFP28
40G QSFP+ 100G CFP4/QSFP28 400G OSFP/QSFP-DD
ICT
100G 30% 2017
1
97%
400G
2018 10G/40G 24.22% 25G/100G/400G
72.71%
2014 /2018
7.46 /51.39 62% 2014 /2018 0.71
/6.22 72% 400G
2 3
24.22%
72.71%
3.07%
10G/40G 25G/100G/400G
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2014 2015 2016 2018
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[Table_PageTop]
2014 24% 30%
40G/100G
2018
400G
2014 10% 2017 Q4 3%
1.1
4
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2018
70.94%
1 ( )
2015 2016 2017 2018
Google 42.74% Google 22.74% 1 47.56% 1 37.37%
HYVE Solutions 12.23% 14.57% 2 7.69% 2 12.20%
9.46% HYVE Solutions 11.13% 3 6.55% 3 10.43%
5.81% Amazon 9.36% 4 6.15% 4 8.24%
3.06% 6.40% 5 5.15% 5 2.70%
73.31% 64.20% 73.10% 70.94%
1.2. 5G
3G 2009 6G 2km 10G 1.4km 2010
6G LTE SFP+ 3G 4G
7 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
10G 1.4km 10G 10km 10G 40km 5G
5G
5G
NEC 5G
5G
5
1.3.
SDL JDSU 470
(Luxnet) 2000 Pine Photonics Communications
2003 Opnext
Agere System ( ), Pine Photonics Communications,
Opnext 2008
2
Santa Clara MBA SDL JDSU 470
(Luxnet) 2000 Pine Photonics
Communications 2003 Opnext Opnext
Agere
System ( ), Pine Photonics Communications, Opnext
2008
UIUC Optical
Instrumentation Corp CEO Pine Photonics Communications
OpLink
Texas A&M Santa Clara MBA Uniwave
(2004~2007) Pine Photonics Communications (2000-2003)
GTE
8 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
UC Santa Cruz
9 Opnext 2003
Pine Photonics Communications
(Georgia Institute of Technology)
Baird Intel
10G
Opnext
1.4. + 2018 4 26
2019 1 23 3 11
3437.80 45.26 / 15.23 2019 4
22 38,083.48
400G
45 400G 160 100G 140
5G
5G
3
1 400G 35,082.00 45 400G
2 83,539.70 160 100G
140 5G
3 16,973.30
4 20,000.00
2019 6 7 7500
1.5 48.92 /
306.62 2019 6 6 0.43%
6,800
1
13,600 1
1:1
6,800
600
9 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
2.
2.1.
2017 6 126
IT 54%
AWS 50
0 Gartner 2017
1535 2018 1864 21.4
2021 3020 17.5%
6 7
Gartner Cisco
+
IDC Cisco 2016 338
2021 628 86% Garner
2016 83% 2021 94% 2016-2021 19%
70%
Spine/Leaf
Spine/Leaf Spine Leaf
5 cicso
2018 38% 2021 53% 5%
10 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
8 9
Cisco Cisco
10 70% 11 CAGR19%
Cisco Cisco
12 Spine-Leaf
Wind
2.2. 2.2.1. IAAS
2006 IBM
Garner 2017 IAAS 221.60
31.42% 71% 15
Synergy Research 2018 ( Iaas/Paas/Hosted
Private Cloud) 700 48% 2017
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[Table_PageTop]
2018 60%
Iaas 2017
122 25% 54.1%
IBM Rackspace Virtustream
2017
3.7%
4%
10%
13 40% 14 TOP5 IAAS ( )
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
50
100
150
200
250
2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4
( )
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Amazon Microsoft Alibaba Google IBM
2017 2016 2017
Synergy Research Garner
15 16 TOP5 Iaas
Synergy Research Garner
12 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
2.2.2.
Synergy Research 2018 1200
43%
Facebook 70%
IBM NTT SAP
2018
17 2018 43%
Synergy Research
AWS Azure GCP
IBM
4
AWS 20 60 4 12
Azure 42 ( 140 / ) 12
GCP 18 55 100
35 /
3 9
IBM 16 18 60
19 /
19 56
25 53
13 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
18 AWS 60+12 19 Azure 42+12
AMZN
20 GCP 55+9 21 IBM 18+X
IBM
22 56+X 23 (53+X)
2 CEO 2019 130
4
2018
2019
14 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
2.3. 400G
400G
2016 2021
27.4% ERP
18.6% 2016-2021
(Compute)17% (Collaboration)14%
IoT 21% ERP 19% 24% 26% 16%
18%
24 IDC CAGR22%&18% 25
cisco cisco
2016 2021 25%
100G 2016 2017
2017/2018
400G 2019
2020
26 CAGR25%
cisco
15 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
2.4. 400G 2.4.1.
Ovum 2016~2020
10% 2020 122 40% 2015
26 2020 50 15%
Lightcounting 2018-2020 400G
0.56 2.8 7.2 400G
27 ( ) 28 400G ( )
OVUM Lightcounting
OVUM 2018 4 2017
55% 2018 Finisar II-VI
Lumentum Oclaro 6%
40G QSFP+ 37% 100G
QSFP28 30%
29
Ovum (April 2018)
2.4.2. + + +
AAOI Finisar
400G
16 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
-40 ~+85 BOX
COB
Spine-Leaf
2-3
8 5
40G QSFP+
37% 100G QSFP28 30% 2018
422 5G
10G/25G/40G/100G/200G/400G 100G 400G
OSFP QSFP-DD 2019
30
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[Table_PageTop]
2.4.3. 400G 2019
400G
MM SM NRZ PAM4 PAM4
400G SR DR FR LR
400G CDFP/CFP8 OSFP QSFP-DD COBO
400G OSFP QSFP-DD 100G
400G
10G/25G/40G/100G 10G/40G/100G
SFP /QSFP+/QSFP28 400G 4
CFP8 OSFP QSFP-DD COBO
400G
16 25Gbps NRZ 400G-SR16 CDFP CFP8
100G 25G NRZ 16
400G
8 53GbpsPAM4 400G-SR8,FR8,LR8 4
106GbpsPAM4 400G-DR4,FR4,LR4 400G 8
53GbpsPAM4 OSFP QSFP-DD OSFP QSFP-DD
8 QSFP-DD 100G
QSFP28 OSFP
COBO
PCB
OSFP QSFP-DD
5 400G
400G-SR16 16*26.5Gbps NRZ 100m MM 802.3bs 16*26.5Gbps NRZ CDFP/CFP8
400G-FR8 8λ *53Gbps PAM4 2km SM 802.3bs 8*53Gbps PAM4 QSFP DD/OSFP
400G-LR8 8λ *53Gbps PAM4 10km SM 802.3bs 8*53Gbps PAM4 QSFP DD/OSFP
400G-SR8 8λ *53Gbps PAM4 100m SM 802.cm 8*53Gbps PAM4 QSFP DD/OSFP
400G-SR4.2 4*2λ *53Gbps PAM4 100m MM 802.3cm 8*53Gbps PAM4 QSFP DD/OSFP
400G-DR4 4λ *106Gbps PAM4 500m SM 802.3bs 8*53Gbps PAM4 QSFP DD/OSFP
400G-FR4 4λ *106Gbps PAM4 2km SM 100G/λ 8*53Gbps PAM4 QSFP DD/OSFP
400G-LR4 4λ *106Gbps PAM4 10km SM TBD 8*53Gbps PAM4 QSFP DD/OSFP
400G-ZR4 DWDM+59.8Gbd
DP-16QAM >80km DWDM OIF 8*53Gbps PAM4 QSFP DD
Digital-Technology
6 400G
CFP8 OSFP QSFP-DD COBO
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[Table_PageTop]
102*40*9.5 mm^3
100.4*22.58*13 mm^3
( CFP8 ,
QSFP-DD )
CFP4
8 ,
8 25G DML
PAM4
56G
QSFP
4
8
PCB
,
100G
25G NRZ
QSFP+/QSFP28
16 25G
PLC
,
,
; QSFP-DD
PCB;
400G OSFP QSFP-DD 2016 11
48 400G OSFP MSA
2017 3 OFC 400G OSFP LR8
2017 9
ECOC 8 400G OSFP QSFP-DD
400G AOC/OSFPSR/2XFR4/LR8 400G QSFP-DD AOC/SR8/DR4/LR4 2018
3 OFC QSFP-DD SR8/FR4 400G OSFP SR8/2x FR4/ LR8
400G
400G 2019
400G
400G
31 400G
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[Table_PageTop]
100G/400G
400G
3. 5G
3.1. 5G 4G
5G
ITU 5G eMBB mMTC URLLC
eMBB
100Mbps 1Gbps
Gbps Tbps 500km
URLLC
100%
mMTC /km2
32 33
ITU ITU
20 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
5G
5G
GSA 5 41 5G
5G Ovum 2018
34 ( :10 )
Ovum
2019 6 6
5G 5G 2019
3026 5.5% 5G 327
35 ( :10 )
9.7%
-15.1%
7.2%
17.7%12.9% 11.4%
16.4%
-18.8%
-13.1%
-7.4%
5.5%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E
Ovum
5G 1
2 3
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[Table_PageTop]
3.1.1.
5G CPRI eCPRI
25G 5G 5G
(millimeter wave) (massive MIMO),
(100 MHz, 200 MHz) (small cell)
5G eCPRI CPRI
6G/10G 25G
1G 10G 40G/100G
100G/200G/400G
7 5G
CPRI eCPRI
1/3.2 1/10
80G/100G 25G
QSFP 28 SFP 28
WDM
AAU
3.1.2.
4G RRU+BBU AAU+ DU+CU
5G BBU DU+CU 4G 5G
RAN 4G/LTE BBU Baseband Unit RRU
CU DU AAU BBU CU DU BBU
RRU AAU AAU DU
CU DU
CU DU
5G RAN
50G/100G
36 4G5G RAN
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[Table_PageTop]
3.1.3.
5G
4G 2017 4G 206
91 120 417 5G
3500MHz
4G 5G 4G 1.5
2600MHz 4900MHz 5G
4G 5G 500
5G 5G
5G
5G
5G
3.1.4. 5G 4G 2.5
CRAN DRAN
5G CRAN
3 5 5G
DRAN 8 1
5G 8:4:1
37 CRAN 38 DRAN
IMT-2020 IMT-2020
5G 4G 2.5
25G CRAN/DRAN 50G/25G
50G 200G/400G 500
4300-5200 3000
42-65 30 4G
2.5 1000
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[Table_PageTop]
8 CRAN DRAN
CRAN DRAN
3
5 5G 1
8
1 5G 1
= *(N-1)+
2.03*(15-1)+4.65=33.07Gbs
= *(N-1)+
2.03*(8-1)+4.65=18.86Gbs
4
6
4
6
= *
* /2*
33.07*6*4/2*1/2=198.42Gbps
= *
* /2*
18.86*6*4/2*1/2=113.16Gbps
4
8
4
8
= *
* /2*
198.42*8*4/2*1/4=793.68Gbs
= *
* /2*
113.16*8*4/2*1/4=452.64Gbs
3.2. 5G 3.2.1.
( +
)
Finisar
Oclaro Lumentum Acacia
3.2.2.
5G 3G
2009 6G 2km 10G 1.4km 2010 6G LTE
SFP+ 3G 4G 10G 1.4km
10G 10km 10G 40km
90%
2015 5G
5G 10G
25G/50G/100G 1G 10G 50G/100G/200G
2016 5G
NEC 2018 Q4
2019 5G 25G LR 10KM
5G
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[Table_PageTop]
39
5G 5G / /
25G /50G /100 100G/400G
5G
5G
4.
4.1. 4.1.1.
III-V 1
2
3
40
25 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
SiGe/Si SOI CMOS
/
1
CMOS
2
3
41 intel
intel
1 III-V
III-V
2
8~12
4.1.2. PSM4
100G CWDM4 PSM4
CWDM4 LR4 CWDM4 10km
CWDM4
500m PSM4 Intel Luxtera
CWDM4 2KM
Yole D veloppement
2015 4000 2025
48%
95%
26 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
42 CWDM4 43
Ovum Yole D veloppement
4.2. 400G
4.2.1.
2010
Foundry IT
1 2014 2015
6.1 AIM Photonics Leti
2 Intel IBM IT Intel IBM
2003 3
Lightwire Luxtera
Kotura Caliopa 4 Acacia SiFotonics
Intel 2016 100Gbit/s QSFP28
400Gbit/s Mellanox 2017 200Gbit/s QSFP Luxtera
2015 100Gbit/s QSFP28 PSM4 2017
100Gbit/s CWDM2 Acacia
100Gbit/s 200Gbit/s 400Gbit/s
Intel Luxtera
44
27 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
4.2.2. 400G
Lightcounting 2019 400G 2.8
2018 OFC Finisar
Mellanox 10 400G
400G
100G Intel Luxtera
500m 100G QSFP28 PSM4/CWDM4 400G
100G 2km CWDM4 400G
5.
2019 5 9 5 10 2000
10% 25% 5 13 USTR
6 17 3000 25%
2500
2 3
Avago Oclaro
2.2
6.
6.1.
facebook 100G 400G
400G 2019 2020
100G 2019
5G 2020 5G 25G
100G
400G 100G
400G 25G
28 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
2019
100G 400G 10G/40G
100G
400G
30%
2019/2020/2021 57.77 /76.42 /93.84
26.29%/26.84%/26.41%
1
2018 2019E 2020E 2021E
25G/100G/400G
3748.97 4616.80 6681.50 8624.00
YOY 23.15% 44.72% 29.07%
28.16% 26.91% 27.37% 26.81%
10G/40G
1248.76 1000.00 800.00 600.00
YOY -19.92% -20.00% -25.00%
24.36% 23.00% 22.00% 20.00%
158.59 160 160 160
YOY 0.89% 0.00% 0.00%
29.00% 29.00% 29.00% 29.00%
5156.32 5776.80 7641.50 9384.00
YOY 12.03% 32.28% 22.80%
27.27% 26.29% 26.84% 26.41%
6.2.
A
100G
100G
wind 2019 6 12 2019
30-44 2020 21-33
2019 /2020 PE 32/23
40
29 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
45
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E
Wind
6.3. 1 400G
400G
2
3
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[Table_PageTop]
[Table_Forcast] 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E
1,041 3,095 3,616 4,584 623 727 1,026 1,245
0 0 0 0 66 10 36 35
880 1,110 1,468 1,803 203 214 227 232
2,119 2,321 3,047 3,764 -14 0 0 0
117 128 150 171 79 24 16 16
4,158 6,654 8,281 10,322 -7 -5 -5 -5
0 0 0 0 -323 155 -509 -484
103 103 103 103 32 0 0 0
1,497 1,640 1,758 1,758 660 1,125 791 1,040
384 255 140 38 -673 -355 -255 -55
1,717 1,717 1,717 1,717 137 1,283 -16 -16
3,922 4,067 4,099 3,927 949 379 1,416 1,798
8,080 10,721 12,380 14,250
390 0 0 0 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E
942 1,485 1,950 2,409
17 19 25 31 0.87 1.02 1.44 1.74
1,062 1,062 1,062 1,062 6.69 10.09 11.52 13.27
2,868 3,085 3,718 4,342 0.92 1.58 1.11 1.46
270 270 270 270
167 167 167 167 118.76% 12.03% 32.28% 22.80%
436 436 436 436 285.82% 16.69% 41.08% 21.37%
3,304 3,521 4,154 4,778
4,776 7,200 8,226 9,471 27.27% 26.29% 26.84% 26.41%
0 0 0 0 12.08% 12.59% 13.42% 13.27%
8,080 10,721 12,380 14,250
70.12 70.12 70.12 70.12
2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 198.95 198.95 198.95 198.95
5,156 5,777 7,642 9,384
3,750 4,258 5,591 6,906 40.89% 32.84% 33.55% 33.53%
10 13 16 20 1.45 2.16 2.23 2.38
66 10 36 35 0.69 1.38 1.39 1.49
60 78 99 113
253 284 352 422 1.17% 1.35% 1.30% 1.20%
79 -17 -51 -66
4.91% 4.91% 4.60% 4.50%
14 0 0 0 1.54% -0.30% -0.67% -0.70%
7 5 5 5
682 811 1,144 1,389 0.00% 8.62% 0.00% 0.00%
13 0 0 0 0.00% 0.27% 0.00% 0.00%
695 811 1,144 1,389
72 84 118 144 P/E 46.61 32.37 22.95 18.91
623 727 1,026 1,245 P/B 6.08 3.27 2.86 2.49
623 727 1,026 1,245 P/S 3.04 4.07 3.08 2.51
0 0 0 0 13.05% 10.10% 12.47% 13.15%
31 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
2015
2015
2016
“ ”
R3 A B
AA ABS
“ ”
6 15%
6 5% 15%
6 -5% 5%
6 5% 15%
6 15%
6
6
6
32 / 32
[Table_PageTop]
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