Post on 30-Dec-2015
description
System information provision
2
Information
What additional information transparency would help us to:
Understand what system flexibility is
Understand how it is being used now
Predict future requirements
Help define any possible services / incentives / products etc
The aim is to ensure that the system and services required by customers are available when required.
3
Potential drivers for future changes in system usage
LCPD leading to reduction in coal generation
Expected increases in wind powered generation
Change in storage services
Evolving DNO offtake flexibility requirements
Evolving Entry flow characteristics
4
Gas & electricity interaction
Increased volatility driven by weather and operational characteristic of new
generation plant:
High wind load factors could result in little CCGT use large amounts of wind generation
Low wind load factors could result in a sudden and large swings in gas demand
Combination of extra cold weather and additional CCGT demand
Could result in significant change in gas demand within-day
Could see CCGTs operating with lower load factors but greater / shorter notice frequency
Demand volatility (particularly within day) requires flexibility in:
Supplies,
Demands, and
Networks
Market Requirements
Market Requirements
Removing Network
Constraints
Removing Network
Constraints
Sustainable
Affordable Secure
Meeting the Operational Challenge
Meeting the Operational Challenge
Scenario Development
Scenario Development
Market Requirements
Market Requirements
20202020
5
Potential developments for October 2009
Areas to consider:
Service Definition – What is Flexibility (if not definition used under 195AV) ?
Demand volatility within day
Change in linepack across the day?
Delta change in demand/linepack during the day (high point vs low point)
Flows vs forecast
Any other views?
6
Potential Information for October 2009
Possible areas:
General level of flow change – eg 1/24th vs actual hourly flows (National, zonal, by exit /entry point type)
Predictability – Outturn versus earlier notification/forecast
Impact on Linepack
Already obligated by 0195v to publish hourly linepack data on zonal level from 2010. Bring this forward to 2009?
Open to users views on what would help them understand the situation better
7
Graphs
Following graphs show typical changes on the system on a
typical day and may help identify the type of information users
would find helpful.
8
Example of current Demand flow rates
Hourly Offtake minus Average Offtake on 22/04/09
-1.4
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
07
:00
09
:00
11
:00
13
:00
15
:00
17
:00
19
:00
21
:00
23
:00
01
:00
03
:00
05
:00
Time
Off
take
(m
cm)
9
Example of current flows by Offtake types
Hourly Offtake minus Average Offtake on 22/04/09 by demand type
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.40
7:0
0
09
:00
11
:00
13
:00
15
:00
17
:00
19
:00
21
:00
23
:00
01
:00
03
:00
05
:00
Time
Off
take
(m
cm) Industry
Power Stations
Offtakes
Storage
LNG Storage
Interconnector
10
Predictability – Total CCGT OPNs vs actual
Sum of OPNs of Power Stations, and actual flows,22 April 2009
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3
3.1
3.2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
hour of gas day
mcm
by 13:00 day ahead by 10:00 on the day actual
11
Linepack variation within day (195AV data at National Level)
National Linepack on 22/04/09
330
332
334
336
338
340
342
344
346
06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00 02:00 04:00 EOD
Time
Lin
epac
k V
olu
me
(mcm
)
12
Summary
The Graphs show potential for deriving indicators of change
in flow variation / predictability based on existing data
Over time these indicators would give signals on whether
flows were becoming more volatile and/or less predictable.
Would potentially provide better clarity on the types of products/services that customers want going forward
What information would the industry find valuable in making
their own assessment of future flexibility requirements ?
Do users see value in holding a specific workshop(s) to identify user requirements in this area ?