System information provision

2

Information

What additional information transparency would help us to:

Understand what system flexibility is

Understand how it is being used now

Predict future requirements

Help define any possible services / incentives / products etc

The aim is to ensure that the system and services required by customers are available when required.

3

Potential drivers for future changes in system usage

LCPD leading to reduction in coal generation

Expected increases in wind powered generation

Change in storage services

Evolving DNO offtake flexibility requirements

Evolving Entry flow characteristics

4

Gas & electricity interaction

Increased volatility driven by weather and operational characteristic of new

generation plant:

High wind load factors could result in little CCGT use large amounts of wind generation

Low wind load factors could result in a sudden and large swings in gas demand

Combination of extra cold weather and additional CCGT demand

Could result in significant change in gas demand within-day

Could see CCGTs operating with lower load factors but greater / shorter notice frequency

Demand volatility (particularly within day) requires flexibility in:

Supplies,

Demands, and

Networks

Market Requirements

Market Requirements

Removing Network

Constraints

Removing Network

Constraints

Sustainable

Affordable Secure

Meeting the Operational Challenge

Meeting the Operational Challenge

Scenario Development

Scenario Development

Market Requirements

Market Requirements

20202020

5

Potential developments for October 2009

Areas to consider:

Service Definition – What is Flexibility (if not definition used under 195AV) ?

Demand volatility within day

Change in linepack across the day?

Delta change in demand/linepack during the day (high point vs low point)

Flows vs forecast

Any other views?

6

Potential Information for October 2009

Possible areas:

General level of flow change – eg 1/24th vs actual hourly flows (National, zonal, by exit /entry point type)

Predictability – Outturn versus earlier notification/forecast

Impact on Linepack

Already obligated by 0195v to publish hourly linepack data on zonal level from 2010. Bring this forward to 2009?

Open to users views on what would help them understand the situation better

7

Graphs

Following graphs show typical changes on the system on a

typical day and may help identify the type of information users

would find helpful.

8

Example of current Demand flow rates

Hourly Offtake minus Average Offtake on 22/04/09

-1.4

-1.2

-1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

07

:00

09

:00

11

:00

13

:00

15

:00

17

:00

19

:00

21

:00

23

:00

01

:00

03

:00

05

:00

Time

Off

take

(m

cm)

9

Example of current flows by Offtake types

Hourly Offtake minus Average Offtake on 22/04/09 by demand type

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.40

7:0

0

09

:00

11

:00

13

:00

15

:00

17

:00

19

:00

21

:00

23

:00

01

:00

03

:00

05

:00

Time

Off

take

(m

cm) Industry

Power Stations

Offtakes

Storage

LNG Storage

Interconnector

10

Predictability – Total CCGT OPNs vs actual

Sum of OPNs of Power Stations, and actual flows,22 April 2009

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3

3.1

3.2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

hour of gas day

mcm

by 13:00 day ahead by 10:00 on the day actual

11

Linepack variation within day (195AV data at National Level)

National Linepack on 22/04/09

330

332

334

336

338

340

342

344

346

06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00 02:00 04:00 EOD

Time

Lin

epac

k V

olu

me

(mcm

)

12

Summary

The Graphs show potential for deriving indicators of change

in flow variation / predictability based on existing data

Over time these indicators would give signals on whether

flows were becoming more volatile and/or less predictable.

Would potentially provide better clarity on the types of products/services that customers want going forward

What information would the industry find valuable in making

their own assessment of future flexibility requirements ?

Do users see value in holding a specific workshop(s) to identify user requirements in this area ?