Post on 28-Mar-2015
Studying the History of Family Dynamics: the role of the WES
John Ermisch
University of Essex
The Women and Employment Survey
WES provided the first comprehensive birth and marriage histories for a nationally representative sample of women.
Can be used in conjunction with subsequent data to examine how family dynamics have changed across cohorts.
Example: dynamics of non-marital childbearing.
The WES history data
Retrospective histories from 1980 X-section Start and end dates for marriages Dates of birth No cohabiting union dates Employment history data:
– Dates of full-time, part-time and non-employment spells.
Post-1980 nationally representative data
British Household Panel Study (BHPS) retrospective histories
Cohabiting unions, marriages and births Updated with information during the panel,
1993-2003 Also employment and job histories
Example: Dynamics of Non-marital Childbearing
Aggregate characterisation: Proportion of births outside marriage
stability 1845-1965 (4-7%) followed by explosion, particularly after 1980 42% in 2004.
Birth rates vs. Size of non-married population Rise in age-specific rates 1975-90 Rise in proportion not married 1970-2004
Births Outside Marriage per 1000 births
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1845 1855 1865 1875 1885 1895 1905 1915 1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995
Year
Birth rate Outside Marriage, per 1000 unmarried women
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
Year
Aged 15-19
Aged 20-24
Aged 25-29
Aged 30-34
Proportion of women not married
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
Year
Aged 15-19
Aged 20-24
Aged 25-29
Aged 30-34
Social Interaction Theory
An individual’s behaviour may depend on what others in society are perceived to be doing—’social influence’.
E.g. there may be social stigma associated with non-marital births when they are rare.
Gives rise to ‘multiplier effects’ or ‘multiple equilibria’.
Who has a birth before marriage?
Costs of non-marital birth in terms of labour and marriage market opportunities lost are smaller for women with ‘poorer prospects’ in these markets
E.g. women with less education. Expect women with ‘poorer prospects’ to be
more likely to have a birth before marriage.
Social interaction and differentials
If reference group for ‘social influence’ is people of a ‘similar background’, then differences in birth rates by education levels would be larger when non-marital childbearing is more common.
If reference group for ‘social influence’ is wider population, then educational differentials would be smaller when non-marital births are more common.
Equilibrium Proportions becoming a Single Mother
Expected Proportion
Actual Proportion
Birth Cohort comparison
1944-60, from WES (N=2,555 women)– ‘Stability cohorts’
1960-83, from BHPS (N=5,821 women)– ‘Post-explosion cohorts’
Event history analysis of non-marital first birth: censored at first marriage or at time of last survey.
Age Pattern of Non-marital First Birth Rate
1944-60: Peaks at age 20 and then declines. Level at peak: about 1% per year.
1960-83: Initial peak at age 20 and remains relatively high
until age 30, after which it declines. Level at peak: about 3% per year.
Association with Educational Attainment
Non-marital birth rate relative to rate for women staying in full-time education longer:
1944-60 cohort, left school before 16 (39%): Relative Risk (RR) =1.9
1960-83 cohort: left school before or at 16 (54%): RR=4.2
Supports ‘local social influence’.
Relative risk of non-marital birth for women leaving education ‘early’, by birth cohort
00.5
11.5
2
2.53
3.54
4.5
1944-60 1960-83
First Births outside partnerships
1960-83 cohort Age pattern
Initial peak at age 20 and remains relatively high until age 25, after which it declines.
Level at peak: about 2.5% per year. Non-partnership birth rate relative to rate for
women staying in full-time education longer:
Left school before or at 16: RR=4.3
First Births within cohabiting unions
1960-83 cohort Union duration pattern
Peaks in first year and declines. Level at peak: about 10% per year.
Cohabiting union birth rate relative to staying in full-time education longer:
Left school before or at 16: RR=2.8
Dynamics of First Marriage
1944-60: First marriage rate peaks at age 23 and then
declines. Median age at marriage about 22.5 (ONS: 22-23).
1960-83: First marriage rate peaks at 29. Median age at marriage about 32 (ONS: 24, 1962
Cohort; 29, 1971 Cohort). Age distribution has wider spread.
Conclusions
WES provides historical information on the dynamics of marriage and births
Allows us to study how dynamics and ‘group differences’ have changed over time
May provide some insight into the presence of ‘social interaction’ effects
Illustrated with example of non-marital childbearing, which has exploded in recent years