Post on 29-Jul-2015
Luis WillumsenConsultancy
HOW PLANNING AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES WILL SHAPE THE FUTURE OF OUR CITIES
Dr. Luis G Willumsen
Budapest, Gerbeaud Ház, 4th February 2010
Luis WillumsenConsultancy
MEASU
RES FOR LIVEABLE EU
ROPEAN
CITIESPERSPECTIVES
We will be trying to look at the future of our cities and their transport systems
Focusing on 3 key elements
• Uncertainty is unavoidable• Sustainability is paramount, emission targets will be tough• Technology moves faster than planning
I will provide a few leading examples
• And apologise in advance if they are known to the audience
Luis WillumsenConsultancy
MEASU
RES FOR LIVEABLE EU
ROPEAN
CITIESTransport Planning: meeting emissions targets
Transit Oriented Development• Europeans have been practising it for years ... But seem to
forget it sometimes: better land use planning
Improved public transport modes, reliability and usability
Cycling and walking will be supported and promoted much further
Electric vehicles have a future, especially in cities
Luis WillumsenConsultancy
MEASU
RES FOR LIVEABLE EU
ROPEAN
CITIESTransport Planning
There will be fewer large shopping centres and more integrated developments
Charging (parking, congestion) will be an active component of transport policy
New forms of payment will support more refined pricing
Planning will account for uncertainty
Luis WillumsenConsultancy
MEASU
RES FOR LIVEABLE EU
ROPEAN
CITIESCore, long term schemes: metro, toll roadFlexible Transport Planning
Uncertainty and risk can be mitigated with flexibility, guidance and quick response interventions
Distinguish major schemes from more flexible interventions Semi-flexible schemes: HOT lanes, Bus Rapid Transit
Short term guidance: pricing, bus services, demonstration schemes
To provide flexible, quick interventions...
Regular updating of models with current information is essential
Not all aspects of transport are modellable
Travel behaviour does change and can be encouraged in the “right direction”
Luis WillumsenConsultancy
MEASU
RES FOR LIVEABLE EU
ROPEAN
CITIESPayment methods
Smartcards, tags, mobile phones are used to pay securely and quickly
This facilitates refined pricing of services (time of day, advance booking, congestion)
.....but distances use from payment
NEW TECHNOLOGY MOVES FAST
New, and disruptive, technologies are changing the transport landscape, solving some problems and creating new opportunities
The way people relate to the world around us is changing
Information, knowledge, modelling, participation, payment methods, environment;
Are all affected by new technology
Location ServicesWe know where you are!
SmartPhone Apps provide an interesting source of Augmented Reality (AR) services
We increasingly interact with the world assisted by them
This will help public (and private) transport
Sensors Our world is increasingly full of cheap sensors CCTV, even on board Phones, GPS, Bluetooth devices all leave a real
time electronic footprint These can be anonymised safely And used as “probes” and, in the future, to build
Origin Destination matrices
Luis WillumsenConsultancy
MEASU
RES FOR LIVEABLE EU
ROPEAN
CITIESMobile Phone based Location Services
Facilitated by LBS, GPS and compass features Always connected to Internet The world around us is increasingly populated by information
Public Transport real time information Augmented Reality
Browsers providing augmented information on reality based on location and direction of camera: LAYER
Luis WillumsenConsultancy
MEASU
RES FOR LIVEABLE EU
ROPEAN
CITIESLocation data for TRANSPORT
Cell location data can be used to generate trip matrices with accuracy depending on the overhead the operator is willing to incur.
Tracking mobile phones NW England from cell data BITCARRIER sensors
Spanish Bitcarrier has a “listening” device to track mobile phones, Bluetooth and GPS unit within a 42 metre radius and anonymise it. Useful to measure speeds, identify bottlenecks and generate trip matrices
Luis WillumsenConsultancy
MEASU
RES FOR LIVEABLE EU
ROPEAN
CITIESConclusions
The next 10-15 years are going to be very interesting, and different, for Transport Planning and decision making
Transport will have to play its role in meeting emissions targets; this will be tough
Active modes, public transport, land use planning and behavioural change will be key components of new transport
Technology will help to:
• Reduce the need to travel (working from home, internet shopping)• Make it easier to use public transport• Provide a richer source of data to deal with uncertainty and support responsive decision
making• Undertake “experiments” to learn more about difficult-to-model aspects of behaviour