Shaping future cities

Luis WillumsenConsultancy

HOW PLANNING AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES WILL SHAPE THE FUTURE OF OUR CITIES

Dr. Luis G Willumsen

Budapest, Gerbeaud Ház, 4th February 2010


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CITIESPERSPECTIVES

We will be trying to look at the future of our cities and their transport systems

Focusing on 3 key elements

• Uncertainty is unavoidable• Sustainability is paramount, emission targets will be tough• Technology moves faster than planning

I will provide a few leading examples

• And apologise in advance if they are known to the audience


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CITIESTransport Planning: meeting emissions targets

Transit Oriented Development• Europeans have been practising it for years ... But seem to

forget it sometimes: better land use planning

Improved public transport modes, reliability and usability

Cycling and walking will be supported and promoted much further

Electric vehicles have a future, especially in cities


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CITIESTransport Planning

There will be fewer large shopping centres and more integrated developments

Charging (parking, congestion) will be an active component of transport policy

New forms of payment will support more refined pricing

Planning will account for uncertainty


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CITIESCore, long term schemes: metro, toll roadFlexible Transport Planning

Uncertainty and risk can be mitigated with flexibility, guidance and quick response interventions

Distinguish major schemes from more flexible interventions Semi-flexible schemes: HOT lanes, Bus Rapid Transit

Short term guidance: pricing, bus services, demonstration schemes

To provide flexible, quick interventions...

Regular updating of models with current information is essential

Not all aspects of transport are modellable

Travel behaviour does change and can be encouraged in the “right direction”


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CITIESPayment methods

Smartcards, tags, mobile phones are used to pay securely and quickly

This facilitates refined pricing of services (time of day, advance booking, congestion)

.....but distances use from payment

NEW TECHNOLOGY MOVES FAST

New, and disruptive, technologies are changing the transport landscape, solving some problems and creating new opportunities

The way people relate to the world around us is changing

Information, knowledge, modelling, participation, payment methods, environment;

Are all affected by new technology

Location ServicesWe know where you are!

SmartPhone Apps provide an interesting source of Augmented Reality (AR) services

We increasingly interact with the world assisted by them

This will help public (and private) transport

Sensors Our world is increasingly full of cheap sensors CCTV, even on board Phones, GPS, Bluetooth devices all leave a real

time electronic footprint These can be anonymised safely And used as “probes” and, in the future, to build

Origin Destination matrices


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CITIESMobile Phone based Location Services

Facilitated by LBS, GPS and compass features Always connected to Internet The world around us is increasingly populated by information

Public Transport real time information Augmented Reality

Browsers providing augmented information on reality based on location and direction of camera: LAYER


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CITIESLocation data for TRANSPORT

Cell location data can be used to generate trip matrices with accuracy depending on the overhead the operator is willing to incur.

Tracking mobile phones NW England from cell data BITCARRIER sensors

Spanish Bitcarrier has a “listening” device to track mobile phones, Bluetooth and GPS unit within a 42 metre radius and anonymise it. Useful to measure speeds, identify bottlenecks and generate trip matrices


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CITIESConclusions

The next 10-15 years are going to be very interesting, and different, for Transport Planning and decision making

Transport will have to play its role in meeting emissions targets; this will be tough

Active modes, public transport, land use planning and behavioural change will be key components of new transport

Technology will help to:

• Reduce the need to travel (working from home, internet shopping)• Make it easier to use public transport• Provide a richer source of data to deal with uncertainty and support responsive decision

making• Undertake “experiments” to learn more about difficult-to-model aspects of behaviour


THANK YOU

Shaping future cities

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