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A New Monitory Value Model fA New Monitory Value Model for ALARA Practices in NPPsor ALARA Practices in NPPs
ISOE/ATC ALARA WorkshopISOE/ATC ALARA WorkshopSeoul, KoreaSeoul, Korea
12-14 Sep. 200712-14 Sep. 2007
Seong Ho NA, Ph.DED for Radiation and Radwaste Safety
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety19 Guseong-dong, Yuseong, Taejon, KoreaTel: +82 42 868 0302, +82 11 402 2071
Fax: +82 42 862 3680e-mail: shna@kins.re.kr,
Web: http://kisoe.kins.re.kr
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
• Financial Consumption for Main ALARA Projects in Korean NPPs
• Surveys on Alpha Values and Models (CEPN, UK & Japan)
• Logics of KINS Model• Alpha Values• Applications to other countries
CONTENTS
Main Projects forDose Reduction
Allocated Fund ($)
Dose Reduction per Outage (man.
mSv)
Period
(yr)
Total Dose Reduction(man.mSv)
ALARA Cost
$/man.mSv
S/G nozzle dam 213,000 50-200 10 450-2,200 97-470
S/G ECT(SM-10) 500,000 80-140 10 720-1,540 320-700
R/V studbolt tensioner
475,000 36-100 10 320-1,100 430-1,500
S/G man-way MST 225,000 26-36 10 240-400 570-960
RTD by-pass 9,125,000 300-700 30 6,900-28,000 330-1300
Financial Consumption for Main ALARA Projects in Korean NPP : without model
Country Owner/Operator $/man.mSv
USA Overall $160-$2,150
Belgium CEN SKC mol $25.5-$5,000
France EdF $15-$2,250
UK BNFL $60-$120
Sweden Overall $420
Alpha Values Used by the World NPPs
* Alpha (α) Value: used as the Base value in the model normally called as the ALARA model
65.65220.14
93.26188.08205.17
13.63603.38
28.89259.38
171.37186.51
263.28453.78
252146.82188.32
2027.99222.79
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
alpha valueCanada
alpha valueFinland
alpha valueRo-mania
alpha valueSlo-vakia
alpha valueSweden
alpha valueUSA
alpha valueNethe-rlands
alpha valueUnited Kingdom
alpha valueSwitz-erland
alpha value( : EURO) & GNP/capita( : 100 EURO)단위 단위
GNP Value
Comparison of Alpha Values with GNP
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
Optimal point
Detriment Cost
Collective dose
Protection Cost
$
Ideal goal : curve
Practical goal : slope ($/man-Sv)
Total Cost
KOREA (2002)
- Population (PP) : 48,082,000 persons- GDP/PP : 16,378 US$/person - Expected loss of output from non-fatal caners P1 : 0.01/Sv - Expected loss of output from premature death P2 : 0.05/Sv - Expected hereditary detriment P3 : 0.013/Sv - Probability of Employment E : 0.969- Inflation r : 4.88%- Average life expectancy : 76.9 years- Daily Cost to treat non fatal cancer: 17 US$
Case Study of Models
- Total cost to treat non-fatal cancer C1: 6,179 US$ - Years to treat non-fatal cancer T1 : 1 year - Total cost to treat fatal cancer C2: 17,485 US$ (8,742 US$ * 2 years) - Years to treat non-fatal cancer T2: 2 years - Years of earlier death due to cancer h : 60 year - Expected cost of hereditary detriment C3 : 1,830 US$ - Years to treat hereditary detriment T3: 20 days
Non-Fatal Cancer Fatal Cancer
CancersBone-marro
wSkin Breast Leukemi
a Lung Stomach Liver
Cost(US$) 9,749 3,164 5,626 17,874 6,065 5,607 5,423
Average Per year
6,179 US$ 8,742 US$
1. U.K NRPB Model
αnf : Expected loss of output from non-fatal caners
αg : Expected medical expenditure on induced cancers
αf : Expected loss of output from premature death
αm : Expected cost of hereditary detriment
→ α value: 9.8 US$ /man-mSv
Models & Korean Data Input
mgfnf
- C1 :Cost for non-fatal cancers = 6,179,865 won - T1 :Period for medical curing of non-fatal cancers = 1 yr - C2 Cost for fatal cancers = 17,485,390 won- C3 Cost for hereditary detriment = 1,830,893 won - T3 Period for medical curing of hereditary detriment = 20 day
- P1: Prob. for non-fatal cancers due to radiation exposure = 0.01/Sv - P2: Prob. for fatal cancers due to radiation exposure = 0.05/Sv - P3: Prob. for hereditary detriment from radiation = 0.013/Sv - E : Prob. of being employed = 0.969- r : Mean inflation rate = 4.88%- l : Life expectancy = 76.5 yr- h :The avg. age of premature death due to cancers = 60yr
2. Japan Kyoto Univ. Model
→ α value: 2.5 US$/man-mSv
αnf : Expected loss of output from non-fatal cancers & medical expenditure for a man
αf Expected loss from out of work due to fatal cancers for a man
αg Expected cost of hereditary detriment for a man
ME : Daily medical expenditure = 16,931 won W : GDP/capitaC : Consumption= 0.9*W
- Pnf: Prob. for non-fatal cancers due to radiation exposure = 0.01/Sv - Pf: Prob. for fatal cancers due to radiation exposure = 0.05/Sv - Pg: Prob. for hereditary detriment from radiation = 0.013/Sv - l : Life expectancy = 76.5 yr- h :The avg. age of premature death due to cancers = 60yr
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
3. France CEPN Model
→ αbase : 13 $/man-mSv
GDP/capita (in 2002) : 14,503 $/man/yr
Loss of life expectancy induced by a radiation health effect : 16 years
Probability of occurrence of health effects associated with 1 Sv : 0.056 /Sv
Monetary value of health effects associated with 1Sv : 12,995,176 won/Sv
Alpha base value → 13 $/mSv
x0 x Collective dose0
base
Ref(x)
Ref(x) = base
Ref(x) = base(x/x0)a
a : risk aversion factor
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
Dose level(man-mSv) 0~1 1~5 5~15 15~30 30~50
α value($/man-mSv) 13 63.092 334. 1,027 2,287.5
① a=1.4 (constant)
a 1 1.2 1.6 1.75 1.75
Dose level(man-mSv) 0~1 1~5 5~15 15~30 30~50
α value($/man-mSv) 13 49.5 538. 3,095. 8,384.
② a= (varied)
* Christian,1998
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
NameDose Range (mSv)
Total (Person)0.1~1 1~5 5~10 10~ ≧
20NPP
Workers
7,430(0.76)
1,577(0.16)
543(0.055
)260
(0.025) 9,810 ※ Duplicated Count is Adjusted
Dose Range mSv 0~1 1~5 5~10 10~ 20≧ Total
Workers
CollectiveDose
man-mSv
AllWorkers
21,611(0.691)
8,363(0.267)
967(0.031)
347(0.011)
31,288(1.00)
32,757
Distribution of workers in four stepwise dose ranges in 2005
ECONOMIC METHOD
Case Study of Models
Human Capital Approach
- Treat as a substance value
- Cost-Benefit Analysis
o Revealed Preference Approach: WTP
- Survey
- willingness to-pay
Approach to Define the Human Value
◆
◆
◆
◆
◆
Cost(C)
Residual dose(D)
△ C
△ D
□ △C/ △D : implicit cost of avoided dose unit
o α : reference monetary value of d dose unit => “what is agreed to be paid in order to avoid one dose unit”
□ Optimum : dC/dD ≤ α
⊙Ⓐ
Ⓑ
(1) DIFFERENTIAL COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
0
Cost
man-mSv
Total Cost
Protection Cost
Exposure Cost
Optimized Dose (ALARA)
OptimizedCost
(2) Cost-Benefit Analysis(2) Cost-Benefit Analysis - Optimization- Optimization
Optimal point
0 40000 80000 120000
0.1
0
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6Co
llect
ive
dose
(man
-Sv
per y
ear)
ALARA only20 mSv, then
ALARA
Annual cost (US dollars per year)
- Annual Cost to reduce the collective dose
Case of UK
0 10,000 20,000 30,000
20
0
40
60
80
Annual gross national product per person(US dollars per year)
Mea
n lif
e ex
pect
ancy
(y)
- Surveyed 53 countries-Life Expectancy is proportional to the GNP increase if it is less than US$ 10,000
Life Expectancy & GNP
Human Life Price is estimated by an individual loss of contribution to the national economic
Case of France CEPN : Monetary value of Human Life per Sv
Human Capital Approach
GDP/person US$ 35,282
Average Life Expectancy 42 yr
Life Price US$ 35,282× 42(yr) = 1,481,844 Life years lost due to disease
(ICRP60) 19.4(yr)
Cost to treat Health Detriment US$ 35,282× 19.4(년 ) = 684,470
Probability of Cancer (1Sv) 5.6× 10-2 /Sv Loss of National Economic
due to Health Detriment per 1Sv
684,470× 5.6× 10-2
-
d0 d dIndividual Dose mSv
0
Base
Ref(d)
Ref(d) = Base
Ref(d) = Base(d/d0)a
Base : Monetary Value of unit dose
do : Upper value allowed individual dose for Base
a : Aversion Factor (1.2-1.75)
CEPN Model for Alpha Value
Case of France a = 1.6 if less or equal to 15 mSv/y
a= 1.75 if 20 mSv/y
Aversion Factor Range for a
0 10-6 10-4 10-0
Annual Individual Dose Sy/y
4
16
12
8
Mul
tiply
ing
Fact
or a
10-2
Low A
High A
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
αbase value : 17.1 US$/man-mSv = GDP/capita × Loss of Life Expectancy × Prob. 17.1 x 764/1024 = 12.7 US$/man-mSv (PPP Adjusted)
GDP/capita (2005) : 16,378 US$/man Loss of life expectancy caused by radiation : 18.6 yearsDetriment Probability : 0.056 /SvExchange Rate(2005) : 1024 Won/$PPP : 764 Won/$
Ref(d) = Base(d/d0)a for d > d0 (1 mSv)
Ref(d) = Base for d ≤ d0 (1 mSv)
KINS Model for Alpha Value
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
Optimal point
Detriment Cost
Collective dose
Protection Cost
$
Ideal goal : curve
Practical goal : slope ($/man-Sv)
Total Cost
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
KINS Alpha Value Model for Korea
Individual Dose( mSv )
Cost
0 1 5 10
α base
α1
α2
α3
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
- αref(x) = αbase, if x≤ 1 a=1
= α1, if 1<x≤ 5 a=1.4
= α2, if 5<x≤ 10 a=1.5
= α3, if 10<x a=1.7
- αbase : 17.1 US$/man-mSv
- α1 : 160 US$/man-mSv
- α2 : 540 US$/man-mSv
- α3 : 2,800 US$/man-mSv
Alpha Value in Korea
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
1) Corporate or plant alpha values for occupational exposure: set of values
Country Corporate or NPP Monetary Value of man-mSv ($) Adoption year
Belgium CEN SCK Mol 0-1 mSv : 23 1-2 mSv : 58 2-5 mSv : 232 5-10 mSv : 620 10-20 mSv : 1,158 20-50 mSv : 4,635
1995
France EDF 0-1 mSv : 14 1-5 mSv : 57 5-15 mSv : 328 15-30 mSv : 955 30-50 mSv : 2,138
1993
Germany VGB proposal agreed on by all utilities for testing
0-1 mSv : no value 1-10 mSv : 14310-20 mSv : ~1,434
1997
Netherlands Borssele NPP 0-10 mSv : 467 10< mSv : 935
2002
Applied in Other Countries
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
• 0~1m Sv : 17.1 $/man-mSv
• 1~5mSV : 160 $/man-mSv
• 5~10mSv : 540 $/man-mSv
• >10mSv : 2,800 $/man-mSv
Alpha Value in Korea
Dose Range (mSv) 0~1 1~5 5~10 ≥10
Distribution f(x) 0.69 0.27 0.03 0.01
Aversion Factor a 1 1.4 1.5 1.7
Korea α Value(US$/man.mSv) 17.1 160 540 2,800
France α Value(US$/man.mSv) 38 365 1,212 6,242
Ref(d) = Base(d/d0)a
Ref(d) = Base d ≤ 1 mSv
KINS Model for Alpha Values
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
Country PPP GNI($) 2002
$ of Man-mSv Adopted year
Korea 16,960 12 ~ 1,880 (PPP adjusted) 2007Canada 28,390 70.3 1997
Czech Republic 14,920 16.8~84.1 2002
Finland 26,160 100 1991Netherlands 28,350 486 1995
Romania 6,490 220 ~2002Sweden 25,820 13.5~277.8 ~2002
UK 26,580 15.7~157.2 1998USA 36,110 200 1995
* PPP GNI : Purchasing Power Parity Gross National Income It reflects the real value of currency and objective-economic situation.
* CEPN, 2003
2) Alpha values of Regulatory bodies
Country 2002 SurveySlovakia RP Decree
No. 12/2001 in 2001 adjusted by consumer price
<2 mSv : 48.27 EUR 2-5 mSv : 120.68 EUR, 5-15 mSv : 362.03 EUR 15-30 mSv : 482.71 EUR, 30-50 mSv : 603.38 EUR
Belgium <1 mSv : 24.79 EUR, 1-2 mSv : 61.97 EUR 2-5 mSv : 247.89 EUR 5-10 mSv : 619.73 EUR 10-20 mSv : 1239.47 EUR 20-50 mSv : 4957.87 EUR
Netherlands <10 mSv : 500 EUR >10 mSv : 1000 EUR
Spain Total collective does: < 1250 man-mSv on a 3 years average = 1000 EUR, > 1250 man-mSv on a 3 years average = 5000 EURIndividual does : < 10 mSv = 1000 EUR, > 10 mSv = 5000 EUR
UK(BNFL)
For individual doses < 5 mSv : NRPB data set from 14.68 to 29.36 EUR (10 to 20 GBP)if individual dose > 5 mSv : multiplied by a factor of 3if individual dose around 10 mSv : multiplied by a factor of 5
USA(South texas NPP)
< 10 mSv : 466.29 EUR (500 USD) >10 mSv : 2331.44 EUR (2500 USD)
Comparison of Existing Values
38 ~ 24,200 (40 mSv)FRANCE
KINS Model (PPP) US$/man-mSv1~ 20 mSv
Own Model Values
466~2,620 US$/man-mSv
37 US$/man-mSv
34 US$/man-mSv
17 US$/man-mSvKOREA
USAS. Texas NPP
JAPAN
UK
Base 1 2 3
12.7 120 400 2000
248097043 382
51 450 1,150 2,920
43 380 962 2450
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
GDP$/person
(1)
AverageLife
Years(2)
PPP
(3)
Exchange Rate
(4)
Current Priced Alpha base$/man-Sv
(5)
PPP Alpha base
$/man-Sv
Korea 16,378 18.6 764 1,024 17,060 12,730
USA 42,523 17.5 1 1 41,670 41,670
France 35,282 20.3 0.902 0.805 40,110 44,940
UK 36,780 18.5 0.627 0.55 38,110 43,440
Canada 35,420 19.9 1.25 1.212 39,470 40,710
Japan 35,741 21.8 129 110.1 43,633 51,123
China 1,477 11.4 1.8 8.3 943 205
(5) = (1) x (2) (18.6 year) x Cancer risk (5.6 x 10-2 /Sv)PPP Alpha base value = (5) x (3)/(4)
New Values in Current Price and PPP
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
Cases Alpha base Value
$/man-Sv
Alpha Values $/man-Sv(Aversion Factor per region)
α1 (a=1.4) α2 (a=1.5) α3 (a=1.7)
Korea
PPP12,730 121,150 402,496 2,072,59
0Current
Price 17,100 162,380 539,470 2,777,900
Japan
PPP51,123 486,589 1,616,65
58,324,68
4Current
Price 43,633 415,300 1,379,796
7,105,022
China
PPP 205 1,946 6,467 33,298Current
Price 943 8,975 29,818 153,542Swiss
PPP79,160 753,480 2,503,31
012,890,4
00Current
Price 58,810 559,730 1,859,600
9,575,720
New Values evaluated by the use of KINS Model
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
Cases Alpha base Value
$/man-Sv
Alpha Values $/man-Sv(Aversion Factor per region)
α1 (a=1.4) α2 (a=1.5) α3 (a=1.7)
UK
PPP43,440 413,470 1,373,69
07,073,60
0Current
Price 38,110 362,700 1,204,990
6,204,910
USA PPP41,670 396,650 1,317,81
36,785,88
0Current
Price 41,670 396,650 1,317,813
6,785,880
France PPP44,942 427,770 1,421,20
07,318,19
0Current
Price 40,110 381,770 1,268,360
6,531,201
Canada PPP40,710 387,480 1,287,32
06,628,84
0Current
Price 39,470 375,700 1,248,190
6,427,320
New Values evaluated by the use of KINS Model
Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety
1. ALARA Value is communication tool among stakeholders
2. Easy and Rational : neither in-depth study nor mathematical complexity
3. derived from the basis on GDP and Life Expectancy : practical compensation and current values
4. Purchasing Power Parity is recommended for international comparison
5. Variation of Risk Aversion Factor (a-value) drives different values; however, laborious effort for adjustment is not recommended
6. Consistency of the probability of health detriment: Human Race and Regional
CONCLUSION