Post on 15-Jan-2016
Science for building resilience and adaptation
Kim JochumLilian Alessa
Andrew KliskeyMark Ferrell
Overview
Long-term projects and concepts
Water as a resilience factor
Wildlife as a resilience factor
Integrated coupled social-ecological modeling incorporating agent-based modeling
- Forecasting Environmental Resilience of Arctic Landscapes (FERAL)
Tools for vulnerability assessment by Alaskan communities - AWRVI
Developing explanatory models for community resilience
Technology induced environmental distancing (TIED)
Source: Alessa, Kliskey, Williams. Polar Geography, 2007.
Water as a resilience factor
Wales Alaska, 2008
Developing social science for understanding community response to change …
Perception of change in water resources varies with age cohort
Source: Alessa, Kliskey, Williams & Barton. Global Environmental Change. 2008.
Values toward water vary with age cohort
drinking
washing and cleaning
subsistence uses
travel
recreation
biological
cultural activitiesMost important value of water
18-39 years 40-59 years 60-99 years
Source: Alessa , Kliskey, Williams. Society & Natural Resources. 2010.
Social-Ecological Relationships between Anchorage residents Water Quality and Quantity
ApproachA community’s resilience to change is dependent
on their ability to perceive a change in an environment
Water resources are an important component of the environment, and subject to environmental changes
Answering questions concerning individual’s understanding of social and ecological relationships within the Anchorage watershed
Surveying of the public
Key Results 75.8 % - no change in water quality and quantity
68.9% - no difference in Campbell creek quality and quantity
Women perceive more change in creek water quantities
The higher the education level the greater the ability to perceive change
Chester Creek Waterway Do you see a problem with this waterway?
Some respondents said there were “no issues with Chester Creek”
Wildlife as a resilience factorConfronting bear management in the changing North
Why do Human-Bear Encounters not decrease ?
Worldwide issueWorldwide issue
Management interestManagement interest
lack of knowledge about triggering lack of knowledge about triggering factorsfactors
Additional:Additional:unknown population sizes unknown population sizes hunting licence estimationshunting licence estimations
Sustainable populations?Sustainable populations?
Possible triggering factors• UrbanisationUrbanisation• Human FootprintHuman Footprint• Access to Resources Access to Resources
EconomyPopulationEcosystem
Complex system
(http://fw.ky.gov) http://ursafreedomproject.ning.comwww.humanbearconflict.org @Dima
Research Questions• How are inhabitants perceptions and
awareness towards human-bear encounters?
• How did urbanisation develop in relation to human-bear encounters?
• How did and does the human land-use influence human-bear encounters?
Study areas – Pacific Rim
Sakhalin Island, Sakhalin Island,
Russian Far EastRussian Far East
Alaska, USAAlaska, USA
Remote Sensing -Remote Sensing -supervised classification
of land use change for Yushno and Anchorage
regions over 30 years
Modeling Modeling - - Predicting suitable brown
bear habitat on Sakhalin and in Alaska
brown bear habitat model
Social Science -Social Science -Mixed Methods approach:
semi-structured interviews and structured explanatory survey
geo-referenced human-bear encounters
database & human use of landscapes
people’s perceptions and their change in
perceptions towards brown bears
evaluation of geo-referenced
human-bear encounters in relation to urbanization
Improve resilience and adaptiveness of brown bear management in
Alaska and on Sakhalin
Project Overview
Remote Sensing StageClassification trialsNon-Random
1989 classified image: Blue – water Green – forest Red – urban Yellow - agriculture Light blue – grassland
Interviews:Perceptions and Experiences towards bear
management23 Interviews on Sakhalin and in AlaskaCurrently analyzed
Survey:Human-bear encounters & land-use over 30 years
awaiting IRB approvalOnline and in the fieldMatch existing Governmental and Agency data
Social Science Stage
Acknowledgements
Alaska Alaska
EPSCoREPSCoR
Sakhalin Environment Sakhalin Environment Watch (SEW)Watch (SEW)
Institute of Institute of Marine Marine Geology & Geology & Geophysics, Geophysics, Yushno Yushno Sakhalin Sakhalin
Pacific Pacific Institute of Institute of Geography, Geography, VladivostokVladivostok
SILVIS lab, SILVIS lab, University of University of Wisconsin Wisconsin Madison Madison
The Research The Research Council of NorwayCouncil of Norway