Rotmans and de Vries (1997)Perpsectives on Global Change:The TARGETS Approach

TARGETSTool to Assess Regional and Global Environmental and health Targets for SustainabilityRIVM, NL

Problems with current practice

Models not treated as a valuable resource

Models need a lot of effort to construct- assemble the science- write the code (most of which is support code)

Model structure not accessible- difficulty of getting science from the code- no guarantee that paper matches model

Model variables not linked to standard-naming schemes, ontologies etc

Hard to compare alternative models

Models tend to be locked in to a single paradigm (System Dynamics, agent-based, Bayesian network, general-equailibrium, optimisation...)

It doesn't have to be like this....

The System Biology community

SBML: a community standard for representing biological pathway models in XML.A rich collection (200+) of tools for processing SBML modelsA database of 400+ 'curated' and 400+ 'non-curated' modelsA community which discusses SBML developmentsMajor funding from EU, NSF, BBSRC...

Meeting this challenge for integrated modelling

We need a declarative modelling approach (like SBML)- so we can display models visually;- so we can have computer support for building models;- so we can automatically compare, transform, convert models;- so we can link model variables to community ontologies.

We need to be able to handle multiple modelling paradigms- Not just separately, but within a single model.- Example: System Dynamics, spatial modelling and agent-based modelling- Reference platform: Simile [Disclosure]

LINTUL - a simple butrepresentative crop model

System Dynamics modelling

Simonovic's Anemi - N

2O

Simonovic's Anemi - ocean temperature

Objects/disaggregation

Spatial modelling

“Agent-based”

FLORES - Forest Land Oriented Resource Envisioning System

Acknowledgements: DFID;CIFOR; Jerry Vanclay

Back to the future...