Post on 21-Mar-2020
Chalmers University of Technology
Risk and Vulnerability in I f t t iInfrastructures in
On Risk assessment in energyOn Risk assessment in energy infrastructures with focus on the electric
power system
Lina.Bertling@chalmers.seProfessor
2010-05-1o, Lund
Chalmers University of Technology
MISSIONA forward-looking university of technology with a global outlook that
conducts internationally recognised education basic and applied researchconducts internationally recognised education, basic and applied research and collaborations, integrated with a professional innovation process
Chalmers University of Technology
ContentsChalmers/Elteknik – solutions
for a smart power systemSustainable Electric Power System• Energy system in changeEnergy system in change• Challenges and Solutions – Smart Grid • E l RCAM d Wi dAM
2009-09-17 Chalmers Elteknik
• Example RCAM and WindAM• Upcoming - summary, Welcome!2009-09-17, Chalmers, Elteknik
Picture: Lillgrund, Lina Bertling, August 21, 2009.
Chalmers University of Technology
Energy system in change• The energy system is undergoing a major global change • Main driving forces are to meet the climate and energy
l d h i i igoals and to counteract the economic crisis. • In Europe the climate and energy goals taken in Dec 2008
ith t t f 20/20/20 b 2020with target for 20/20/20 by 2020.
E l S d ith l i t t i i d iExample Sweden with large investments in wind power, in large and small scale. (Planning goal to 15 TWh in 2030, from today’s ~3 TWh (of total ~146 TWh) )from today s 3 TWh. (of total 146 TWh) )
The electric power system is a facilitator to meet theseThe electric power system is a facilitator to meet these changes by “more and different use of electricity”!
Chalmers University of Technology
Electric power system: developmentsDevelopment phases:• 1950’s and 1960’s
Electric power system: developments1950 s and 1960 sExpansion to facilitate the large hydro power development in the far northnorth
• 1970’s and 1980’sExpansion in the south caused by
fconnections of nuclear power plants
• 1990’s -Increased capacity for internationalIncreased capacity for international trade.
• 2005 –Reinvestments and increased focus on reliability
2008 S t i bl d l t• 2008– Sustainable developments Smart Grid!
Chalmers University of Technology
Electric power system: complexElectric power system: complex
Traditional systemTraditional system
Towards more diversity and communication!
Chalmers University of Technology
El t i tElectric power system: challenges & solutionschallenges & solutions
Picture: Lillgrund Vattenfall, view from a 2.3MW turbine, by Lina Bertling, August 21, 2009.
Chalmers University of Technology
El t i t h llPower balancing Grid capacit stabilit
Electric power system: challengesPower balancing Grid capacity, stability
Source: Svenska Kraftnät
Varying availability• Good wind power sites
• Varying availability• Forecast errors
N d f dditi l
pin remote areas
Need for grid reinforcement for Need for additional reserve capacity
delivery and backup/balancing
Chalmers University of Technology
El t i t h llElectric power system: challenges
ENTSO-E • Large disturbance in ENTSO-E (formerly UCTE) system on November 4th 2006
• System splitting in 38 minutes
• Disconnection of 17000 MW, affecting 15 millions households in two hours
• Detailed report at ENTSO-E website: http://www.entsoe.eup
Chalmers University of Technology
Electric power system: challenges
Challenges for the electric power system:need of reinforcement in the power grid more integration between the countries gmore intermittent powermore large and small scale productionmore large and small scale productionactive customers with more information and
b i b th d dbeing both consumer and producer
Chalmers University of Technology
El t i t l tiElectric power system: solutionsSolutions for the electric power system:Solutions for the electric power system:new standards and regulationstechniques to control the power e g phasetechniques to control the power e.g. phase
measurement units (PMUs), FACTS (Flexible AC Transmission Systems), HVDC VSC (Voltage Source y ) ( gConverters), support from Information and Communication
Technology (ICT), and Digital Signal Processing (DSP), materials for efficient high voltage insulationtechnology for energy storage using e.g. electric cars
Smart Grid express the developments using these solutions for a sustainable electric power system!
Chalmers University of Technology
Electric power system: Smart GridElectric power system: Smart Grid
Source: www.nature.com/news/2008/080730/images/454570a-6.jpg
Chalmers University of Technology
Example: Research topicsOptimized Optimized operation operation
and control and control ofof
Technologies Technologies (power (power
systems and systems and ICT) that ICT) that
Example: Research topicsof of
transmission transmission systemssystems
))enable smart enable smart
gridsgrids
Management Management New way of New way of
systemsystemSmart Smart ggofof
Active Active distribution distribution
systemsystem
system system monitoring, monitoring, emergency emergency control and control and protection protection
Power Power SystemSystemyy
Market Market models for models for
crosscross--border border trading of trading of
energy andenergy and
Planning of Planning of future future
transmission transmission energy and energy and ancillary ancillary servicesservices
systemssystems
Chalmers University of Technology
Example: ResearchResearch Elteknik: DC-networks for wind farms
Example: ResearchResearch Elteknik: DC networks for wind farmsBackground: • dc needed for longer transmission systems
• dc/dc-transformers have much lower weight than classical transformers
Objectives: To design a parkObjectives: • To design a park• To derive control of a park• To study efficiencyo s udy e c e cy• To make it fault tolerant
Possibility to remove the platform => huge costplatform => huge cost savings
Sources: Lena Max,Ph.D. Theses from Chalmers, presented 8 December 2009.
Chalmers University of Technology
Example: challengesExample: challenges
Picture: Lillgrund Vattenfall, Maintenance blade, by Lina Bertling, August 21, 2009.
Chalmers University of Technology
E ample Method RCM• Reliability-Centered Maintenance is a systematic risk
Example Method: RCMReliability Centered Maintenance is a systematic risk based qualitative approach that aims to optimize maintenance achievements
• The following features define and characterize RCM:1. preservation of system function,p y2. identification of failure modes,3. prioritizing of function needs, andp g ,4. selection of applicable and effective maintenance
tasks. RCM does not add anything new in a technical
sense. It is a new working process.
Chalmers University of Technology
Example: RCM developments• RCM originates from the civil aircraft industry in
1960s with Boeing 747 series • US Department of Defence defined RCM with first full
description in 1978 (Nowlan) • Introduced for Nuclear power industry 1980s by EPRI• Introduced for Hydro Power Plants in 1990s e.g.
Norway and Sweden (Vattenfall 1997-2005) Ongoing attempts implementing RCM for planning of
t i i d di t ib ti t ltransmission- and distribution systems, nuclear power stations (e.g. Ringhals), and wind power parks – typically using a simple form of RCM– typically using a simple form of RCM.
Chalmers University of Technology
E ample Method RCAMExample Method: RCAM1. Define reliability model
and required input data
Stage 1System reliabilityanalysis• The Reliability Centred Asset
4. Define a failure rate model
2. Identify critical componentsby reliability analysis
*
3. Identify failure causesby failure mode analysis
Stage 2Component reliabilitymodelling
For each: critical
yManagement approach (RCAM) is a quantitative approach of RCM. 5. Model effect of PM
on reliability
Are there more causesof failures ?
Yes
cal component i,
PM m
ethod j, and
failure cause k.
Stage 1: System reliability assessment identify critical
t
6. Deduce PM plans andevaluate resulting model
No
Are there alternativePM methods ?
No
Yes
components Stage 2: Component reliability
modeling and the effect of
7. Define strategy for PMwhen, what, how
*
evaluate resulting model
No
Are there more criticalcomponents ?
Stage 3System reliability
Yes
modeling and the effect of maintenance λ(t,PM)
Stage 3: System reliability when, what, how
failure rate8. Estimate composite
9. Compare reliability forPM methods and strategies
cost/benefit analysisSystem reliability Stage 3: System reliability
assessment and cost analysis*
RCAM plan
PM strategy10. Identify cost-effective
• A reliability-centered maintenance method for assessing the impact of maintenance in power distribution systems, Bertling, Allan, Eriksson, IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 1, 2005.
Chalmers University of Technology
Example Method: LCC Example Method: LCC assessment
• Life Cycle Cost is the sum of all costs which a system is exposed to during its (economical) life time.E l (B li 2002)• Example (Bertling, 2002):
nnnn
NNNNLCC
where is the cost of
T
OtherT
CMT
PMT
I NNNNLCC1111
iNwhere is the cost of
–Investment
iN
–Preventive maintenance
–Corrective maintenance
–Other, e.g. losses or remain value
Chalmers University of Technology
Example: Summary RCAM Stage 1: Stage 2:
C tStage 3: S t l i
Example: Summary RCAM System reliability assessment and identification of
Component reliability modeling outgoing
System analysis implementing maintenance
Sp
c1 220 kV
critical components
from causes of failures
strategies and performing cost analysis
c2
c3
c4
c5
c6
c10
c11
c12
c8
c9
c1
110 kV
220 kVy
5
10
15
x 106 Discount Rate zero
S1
S2
S1
S2
Pre
sent V
alu
e [S
EK
]
c40
c41
c42
c14 c7 c13
c27 c28c29
c23
c26
c25
c24
c19
c20
c21
c22
c15
c16
c17
c18
c37
c38
c39
c43
c44
c45
c36
c46c47
c48
c49c50
c51
c52
c53
c54
c55c56
c57c58
33 kV
11 kV
0TCCM TCPM
siTCPM
rp
1P
10
15
x 106 Discount Rate 7%
alu
e [S
EK
]
SJ
c30 c31
c32
c33
c34c35
LH11
HD
c48c58
0
5
TCCM TCPMsi
TCPMrp
S1
S2 S
1
S2
Pre
sent V
alu
Sources: “Maintenance Optimization for Power Distribution Systems”, P. Hilber 2008, “On reliability and maintenance modelling of ageing equipment in electric power systems”, T. Lindquist 2008 and “RCM for electrical power distribution systems”, L. Bertling, 2002., all Ph.D. Theses from KTH.
Chalmers University of Technology
Example: WindAMContent of the project (1)
Example: WindAM
• Study the state-of-the-art:– review available literature, standards, and previous
work within reliability-centred maintenance (RCM);work within reliability-centred maintenance (RCM); define the terminology
• RCM process for a real wind turbine including RCM
Bosch (2009)
• RCM process for a real wind turbine including – knowledge acquisition about the system and
its main functions 4. Define a failure rate model
2. Identify critical componentsby reliability analysis
*
3. Identify failure causes
1. Define reliability modeland required input data
by failure mode analysis
Stage 1
Stage 2
System reliability
Component reliabilitymodelling
analysis
For each: critical comp
RCM
– identification of the major failure processes (FMEA), including collection and analysis of failure statistics
– Investigation of the maintenance process with a 6. Deduce PM plans andevaluate resulting model
5. Model effect of PMon reliability
Are there more causesof failures ?
No
Are there alternativePM methods ?
No
Yes
Yes
mponent i,
PM m
ethod j, and
failure cause k.
Investigation of the maintenance process with a focus on the use of CMS, incl. available maintenance and CMS records
– overview of CMS including solutions proposed *
7. Define strategy for PMwhen, what, how
failure rate8. Estimate composite
*
No
Are there more criticalcomponents ?
9. Compare reliability forPM methods and strategies
Stage 3
cost/benefit analysisSystem reliability
Yes
overview of CMS, including solutions proposed by CMS manufacturers (a. o. SKF)
*
RCAM plan
PM strategy10. Identify cost-effective
Bertling et al. (2005)
Chalmers University of Technology
Example: WindAMContent of the project (2)
Example: WindAMContent of the project (2)
• RCM application study for a real wind turbine• Investigate the capabilities of the CMS and the
Nordex (2009)
Investigate the capabilities of the CMS and the methods used for maintenance management
• Develop an approach for using the CMS information to optimize maintenance decision, as part of a RCM program
WindpowerEngineering (2009)
• Based on results from above tasks: – Formulate recommendations from a user
perspective on the use of CMSperspective on the use of CMS– Estimate cost benefits of CMS systems for
wind power applications based on real data
Chalmers University of Technology
Electric power system:Electric power system: solutions
Electric power system: closure & comingElectric power system: p y
closure & coming
Picture: TESLA Roadster driven by Lina Bertling, ELKRAFTDAGEN Chalmers, March 2010.
Chalmers University of Technology
Electric power system: summary• Solutions for the future sustainable electric power
Electric power system: summary• Solutions for the future sustainable electric power
system (Smart Grid) involves large amounts of renewable electricity production, and in short andrenewable electricity production, and in short and medium time from wind power.
• New developments are needed to find cost-efficient psolutions to reach high availability
• Long term energy plan - above the political agenda• There are several challenges to solve:
– Process for developments; shorten the lead time– Environmental issues: not on my back yard – Infrastructure; responsibility, incentives – Availabililty; lower maintenance costs– Availabililty; lower maintenance costs
Chalmers work on finding solutions for these challenges!
Chalmers University of Technology
IEEE smart grid conference!IEEE smart grid conference!• October 10-13, 2010, in
Gothenburg!• More information: www.ieee-isgt-
2010.eu
First IEEE PES ISGT conference January 2010conference, January 2010, Washington, gathered 700 persons, 80% from pindustry.
Chalmers University of Technology
Thanks questions and welcome!!Thanks, questions and welcome!!THANKS: Welcome!
Chalmers – Elteknik We work on research and education for a sustainable electric power
lina.bertling@chalmers.seE il li b tli @ h l
education for a sustainable electric power system – smart grid!
Picture: Division of Electric Power Engineering, by J-O Yxell , August, 2009
g@www.chalmers.se/ee/EN/research/research-divisions/epe
Email: lina.bertling@chalmers.seWeb: www.chalmers.se/ee/EN/research/research-divisions/epe