Risk and Vulnerability in If t t iInfrastructures in · Risk and Vulnerability in If t t...

Chalmers University of Technology

Risk and Vulnerability in I f t t iInfrastructures in

On Risk assessment in energyOn Risk assessment in energy infrastructures with focus on the electric

power system

[email protected]

2010-05-1o, Lund


MISSIONA forward-looking university of technology with a global outlook that

conducts internationally recognised education basic and applied researchconducts internationally recognised education, basic and applied research and collaborations, integrated with a professional innovation process


ContentsChalmers/Elteknik – solutions

for a smart power systemSustainable Electric Power System• Energy system in changeEnergy system in change• Challenges and Solutions – Smart Grid • E l RCAM d Wi dAM

2009-09-17 Chalmers Elteknik

• Example RCAM and WindAM• Upcoming - summary, Welcome!2009-09-17, Chalmers, Elteknik

Picture: Lillgrund, Lina Bertling, August 21, 2009.


Energy system in change• The energy system is undergoing a major global change • Main driving forces are to meet the climate and energy

l d h i i igoals and to counteract the economic crisis. • In Europe the climate and energy goals taken in Dec 2008

ith t t f 20/20/20 b 2020with target for 20/20/20 by 2020.

E l S d ith l i t t i i d iExample Sweden with large investments in wind power, in large and small scale. (Planning goal to 15 TWh in 2030, from today’s ~3 TWh (of total ~146 TWh) )from today s 3 TWh. (of total 146 TWh) )

The electric power system is a facilitator to meet theseThe electric power system is a facilitator to meet these changes by “more and different use of electricity”!


Electric power system: developmentsDevelopment phases:• 1950’s and 1960’s

Electric power system: developments1950 s and 1960 sExpansion to facilitate the large hydro power development in the far northnorth

• 1970’s and 1980’sExpansion in the south caused by

fconnections of nuclear power plants

• 1990’s -Increased capacity for internationalIncreased capacity for international trade.

• 2005 –Reinvestments and increased focus on reliability

2008 S t i bl d l t• 2008– Sustainable developments Smart Grid!


Electric power system: complexElectric power system: complex

Traditional systemTraditional system

Towards more diversity and communication!


El t i tElectric power system: challenges & solutionschallenges & solutions

Picture: Lillgrund Vattenfall, view from a 2.3MW turbine, by Lina Bertling, August 21, 2009.


El t i t h llPower balancing Grid capacit stabilit

Electric power system: challengesPower balancing Grid capacity, stability

Source: Svenska Kraftnät

Varying availability• Good wind power sites

• Varying availability• Forecast errors

N d f dditi l

pin remote areas

Need for grid reinforcement for Need for additional reserve capacity

delivery and backup/balancing


El t i t h llElectric power system: challenges

ENTSO-E • Large disturbance in ENTSO-E (formerly UCTE) system on November 4th 2006

• System splitting in 38 minutes

• Disconnection of 17000 MW, affecting 15 millions households in two hours

• Detailed report at ENTSO-E website: http://www.entsoe.eup


Electric power system: challenges

Challenges for the electric power system:need of reinforcement in the power grid more integration between the countries gmore intermittent powermore large and small scale productionmore large and small scale productionactive customers with more information and

b i b th d dbeing both consumer and producer


El t i t l tiElectric power system: solutionsSolutions for the electric power system:Solutions for the electric power system:new standards and regulationstechniques to control the power e g phasetechniques to control the power e.g. phase

measurement units (PMUs), FACTS (Flexible AC Transmission Systems), HVDC VSC (Voltage Source y ) ( gConverters), support from Information and Communication

Technology (ICT), and Digital Signal Processing (DSP), materials for efficient high voltage insulationtechnology for energy storage using e.g. electric cars

Smart Grid express the developments using these solutions for a sustainable electric power system!


Electric power system: Smart GridElectric power system: Smart Grid

Source: www.nature.com/news/2008/080730/images/454570a-6.jpg


Example: Research topicsOptimized Optimized operation operation

and control and control ofof

Technologies Technologies (power (power

systems and systems and ICT) that ICT) that

Example: Research topicsof of

transmission transmission systemssystems

))enable smart enable smart

gridsgrids

Management Management New way of New way of

systemsystemSmart Smart ggofof

Active Active distribution distribution

systemsystem

system system monitoring, monitoring, emergency emergency control and control and protection protection

Power Power SystemSystemyy

Market Market models for models for

crosscross--border border trading of trading of

energy andenergy and

Planning of Planning of future future

transmission transmission energy and energy and ancillary ancillary servicesservices

systemssystems


Example: ResearchResearch Elteknik: DC-networks for wind farms

Example: ResearchResearch Elteknik: DC networks for wind farmsBackground: • dc needed for longer transmission systems

• dc/dc-transformers have much lower weight than classical transformers

Objectives: To design a parkObjectives: • To design a park• To derive control of a park• To study efficiencyo s udy e c e cy• To make it fault tolerant

Possibility to remove the platform => huge costplatform => huge cost savings

Sources: Lena Max,Ph.D. Theses from Chalmers, presented 8 December 2009.


Example: challengesExample: challenges

Picture: Lillgrund Vattenfall, Maintenance blade, by Lina Bertling, August 21, 2009.


E ample Method RCM• Reliability-Centered Maintenance is a systematic risk

Example Method: RCMReliability Centered Maintenance is a systematic risk based qualitative approach that aims to optimize maintenance achievements

• The following features define and characterize RCM:1. preservation of system function,p y2. identification of failure modes,3. prioritizing of function needs, andp g ,4. selection of applicable and effective maintenance

tasks. RCM does not add anything new in a technical

sense. It is a new working process.


Example: RCM developments• RCM originates from the civil aircraft industry in

1960s with Boeing 747 series • US Department of Defence defined RCM with first full

description in 1978 (Nowlan) • Introduced for Nuclear power industry 1980s by EPRI• Introduced for Hydro Power Plants in 1990s e.g.

Norway and Sweden (Vattenfall 1997-2005) Ongoing attempts implementing RCM for planning of

t i i d di t ib ti t ltransmission- and distribution systems, nuclear power stations (e.g. Ringhals), and wind power parks – typically using a simple form of RCM– typically using a simple form of RCM.


E ample Method RCAMExample Method: RCAM1. Define reliability model

and required input data

Stage 1System reliabilityanalysis• The Reliability Centred Asset

4. Define a failure rate model

2. Identify critical componentsby reliability analysis

*

3. Identify failure causesby failure mode analysis

Stage 2Component reliabilitymodelling

For each: critical

yManagement approach (RCAM) is a quantitative approach of RCM. 5. Model effect of PM

on reliability

Are there more causesof failures ?

Yes

cal component i,

PM m

ethod j, and

failure cause k.

Stage 1: System reliability assessment identify critical

t

6. Deduce PM plans andevaluate resulting model

No

Are there alternativePM methods ?

No

Yes

components Stage 2: Component reliability

modeling and the effect of

7. Define strategy for PMwhen, what, how

*

evaluate resulting model

No

Are there more criticalcomponents ?

Stage 3System reliability

Yes

modeling and the effect of maintenance λ(t,PM)

Stage 3: System reliability when, what, how

failure rate8. Estimate composite

9. Compare reliability forPM methods and strategies

cost/benefit analysisSystem reliability Stage 3: System reliability

assessment and cost analysis*

RCAM plan

PM strategy10. Identify cost-effective

• A reliability-centered maintenance method for assessing the impact of maintenance in power distribution systems, Bertling, Allan, Eriksson, IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 1, 2005.


Example Method: LCC Example Method: LCC assessment

• Life Cycle Cost is the sum of all costs which a system is exposed to during its (economical) life time.E l (B li 2002)• Example (Bertling, 2002):

nnnn

NNNNLCC

where is the cost of

T

OtherT

CMT

PMT

I NNNNLCC1111

iNwhere is the cost of

–Investment

iN

–Preventive maintenance

–Corrective maintenance

–Other, e.g. losses or remain value


Example: Summary RCAM Stage 1: Stage 2:

C tStage 3: S t l i

Example: Summary RCAM System reliability assessment and identification of

Component reliability modeling outgoing

System analysis implementing maintenance

Sp

c1 220 kV

critical components

from causes of failures

strategies and performing cost analysis

c2

c3

c4

c5

c6

c10

c11

c12

c8

c9

c1

110 kV

220 kVy

5

10

15

x 106 Discount Rate zero

S1

S2

S1

S2

Pre

sent V

alu

e [S

EK

]

c40

c41

c42

c14 c7 c13

c27 c28c29

c23

c26

c25

c24

c19

c20

c21

c22

c15

c16

c17

c18

c37

c38

c39

c43

c44

c45

c36

c46c47

c48

c49c50

c51

c52

c53

c54

c55c56

c57c58

33 kV

11 kV

0TCCM TCPM

siTCPM

rp

1P

10

15

x 106 Discount Rate 7%

alu

e [S

EK

]

SJ

c30 c31

c32

c33

c34c35

LH11

HD

c48c58

0

5

TCCM TCPMsi

TCPMrp

S1

S2 S

1

S2

Pre

sent V

alu

Sources: “Maintenance Optimization for Power Distribution Systems”, P. Hilber 2008, “On reliability and maintenance modelling of ageing equipment in electric power systems”, T. Lindquist 2008 and “RCM for electrical power distribution systems”, L. Bertling, 2002., all Ph.D. Theses from KTH.


Example: WindAMContent of the project (1)

Example: WindAM

• Study the state-of-the-art:– review available literature, standards, and previous

work within reliability-centred maintenance (RCM);work within reliability-centred maintenance (RCM); define the terminology

• RCM process for a real wind turbine including RCM

Bosch (2009)

• RCM process for a real wind turbine including – knowledge acquisition about the system and

its main functions 4. Define a failure rate model

2. Identify critical componentsby reliability analysis

*

3. Identify failure causes

1. Define reliability modeland required input data

by failure mode analysis

Stage 1

Stage 2

System reliability

Component reliabilitymodelling

analysis

For each: critical comp

RCM

– identification of the major failure processes (FMEA), including collection and analysis of failure statistics

– Investigation of the maintenance process with a 6. Deduce PM plans andevaluate resulting model

5. Model effect of PMon reliability

Are there more causesof failures ?

No

Are there alternativePM methods ?

No

Yes

Yes

mponent i,

PM m

ethod j, and

failure cause k.

Investigation of the maintenance process with a focus on the use of CMS, incl. available maintenance and CMS records

– overview of CMS including solutions proposed *

7. Define strategy for PMwhen, what, how

failure rate8. Estimate composite

*

No

Are there more criticalcomponents ?

9. Compare reliability forPM methods and strategies

Stage 3

cost/benefit analysisSystem reliability

Yes

overview of CMS, including solutions proposed by CMS manufacturers (a. o. SKF)

*

RCAM plan

PM strategy10. Identify cost-effective

Bertling et al. (2005)




• RCM application study for a real wind turbine• Investigate the capabilities of the CMS and the

Nordex (2009)

Investigate the capabilities of the CMS and the methods used for maintenance management

• Develop an approach for using the CMS information to optimize maintenance decision, as part of a RCM program

WindpowerEngineering (2009)

• Based on results from above tasks: – Formulate recommendations from a user

perspective on the use of CMSperspective on the use of CMS– Estimate cost benefits of CMS systems for

wind power applications based on real data


Electric power system:Electric power system: solutions

Electric power system: closure & comingElectric power system: p y

closure & coming

Picture: TESLA Roadster driven by Lina Bertling, ELKRAFTDAGEN Chalmers, March 2010.


Electric power system: summary• Solutions for the future sustainable electric power

Electric power system: summary• Solutions for the future sustainable electric power

system (Smart Grid) involves large amounts of renewable electricity production, and in short andrenewable electricity production, and in short and medium time from wind power.

• New developments are needed to find cost-efficient psolutions to reach high availability

• Long term energy plan - above the political agenda• There are several challenges to solve:

– Process for developments; shorten the lead time– Environmental issues: not on my back yard – Infrastructure; responsibility, incentives – Availabililty; lower maintenance costs– Availabililty; lower maintenance costs

Chalmers work on finding solutions for these challenges!


IEEE smart grid conference!IEEE smart grid conference!• October 10-13, 2010, in

Gothenburg!• More information: www.ieee-isgt-

2010.eu

First IEEE PES ISGT conference January 2010conference, January 2010, Washington, gathered 700 persons, 80% from pindustry.


Thanks questions and welcome!!Thanks, questions and welcome!!THANKS: Welcome!

Chalmers – Elteknik We work on research and education for a sustainable electric power

[email protected] il li b tli @ h l

education for a sustainable electric power system – smart grid!

Picture: Division of Electric Power Engineering, by J-O Yxell , August, 2009

[email protected]/ee/EN/research/research-divisions/epe

Email: [email protected]: www.chalmers.se/ee/EN/research/research-divisions/epe

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