Review of Science and Technical

Progress from a Flood Risk

Perspective

Roberto Rudari (roberto.rudari@cimafoundation.org)

CIMA Research Foundation

representing the International Flood Initiative (IFI)

Preparatory Workshop on Science and Technology for the Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction Third Session

Pavia, Italy, 5-6 April 2011

OBJECTIVE

Aim: Provide succinctly major science and technical advancements and innovations from a flood risk perspective

In relation to the 5 HFA areas

– for coordinating activities around flood risk (HFA1)

– Monitoring & assessing flood risk (HFA2)

– predicting and warning of floods (HFA2)

– Education, advocacy and awareness (HFA3)

– reducing flood risk (HFA4)

– preparing for responding to flood impact (HFA5)

Coordinating activities around flood risk

(HFA1)

• Organizational Challenge: to ensure a

FRR policy that encompasses all levels:

Local, National, Trans-boundary, Global

…is that technically possible?

…is that scientifically sound?

A coordination example: Flood Alert SystemsImportant Services in the Forecasting Phase

Organization / Programme Product

National Meteorological Services and

National Hydrological Services

• Weather Forecasts

• Flood Forecasts

• Medium-range forecasts up to 15 days ahead

• Monthly forecasts up to 30 days ahead

• Seasonal forecasts

• Extreme Forecasting Index (EFI)

• Daily precipitation maps and 3-day precipitation maps

• Heavy Rainfall Information

• Real-time forecast/warnings up to 10 days in advance

• Flood forecasting and warning in insufficiently gauged basins

WMO initiative to „improve the capacity of

meteorological and hydrological services to jointly

deliver timely and more accurate products and services

required in flood forecasting and warning (…)”

Courtesy of Hubert et al, EGU, 2011

A coordination example: Flood Alert SystemsImportant Services in the Emergency Response Phase

Organization/Programme Product

• Automatic disaster

alerts

• Impact estimation

• Virtual OSOCC

• Global flood detection

system

• Current floods

• The surface water

record

• Flood extent Maps

• Damage assessment

• Overview of current

floods

• Provision of space-

based data

Organization/Programme Product

• Provision of Modis

data

• Digital Asia (Web-

GIS) platform to

share disaster

information in the

Asia-Pacific region

• Flood potential maps

• Flood forecasting

maps

• Flood extent maps

• Provide universal

access to all types of

space-based

information and

services relevant for

disaster

management

UN-SPIDER

Courtesy of Hubert et al, EGU, 2011

A coordination example: Flood Alert Systems

The future framework

Promote the establishment of a global flood early-warning system

of systems

Promote further work within the GEO task DI-09-03 and an enlargement of the

scope

Promote incorporation of already existing systems to avoid duplication and to

save resources

Usage of synergies of systems (e.g. usage of common communication

networks, procedures or institutional frameworks), also dealing with other

hazards

Global Early Warning System

More…More…

Needed for scientifically

sound approaches

Courtesy of Hubert et al, EGU, 2011

Coordinating activities around flood risk

(HFA1)

• Organizational Challenge: to ensure a

FRR policy that encompasses all levels:

Local, National, Trans-boundary, Global

• Scientific/technical challenge: to ensure

that data, approaches, models/models

results are shared, used and understood

at all levels

Coordinating activities around flood risk

(HFA1)

• Examples: WIS (Sweden), DEWETRA

(Italy), …

Assessing flood risk

(HFA2)Differences exist in assessing Flood risk when compared to other risks derived from NH:

Hazard assessment (building hazard scenarios) is particularly developed:

- High quality modelling tools

- High quality modelling Data: e.g. hires DTM/DSM (air-born, space born (e.g., SAR such as Tandem-X, Cosmo-Skymed), extensive land use and vegetation

- Extensive validation now is possible and should be pursued: ground truth, satellite based Flooded areas delineation, soft data treatment

- Including Climate change in the picture (IPCC/SREX)

Monitoring & updating Risk using: satellite data,

(HFA2) alternative data,

Interoperable data

Assessing flood risk

(HFA2)Differences exist in assessing Flood risk when compared to other risks derived

from NH:

(Physical) Vulnerability assessment is under-developed especially compared to other risks:

- Hi complexity/variability in how the phenomenon develops

- Few extensive studies on damages: little culture on data collection and organization for this purpose

- Low cost massive data collection now is possible thanks to web based platforms and the intelligent use of mash-ups

- A step on a more holistic approach is needed and currently pursued: social, cultural, economic and educational factors are essential part of vulnerability

- Without a good representation of physical vulnerability an economic assessment is impossible hampering the development of long-term policies and non-structural finance-based mitigation frameworks (e.g., insurance products)

- A multi-hazard vulnerability approach would be preferable

Assessing flood risk

(HFA2)

Differences exist in assessing Flood risk when compared to other risks derived from NH:

Elements@Risk identification is sky-rocketing:

- New possibilities due to the digital earth concept

- New tools for extensive evaluation and classifications (e.g., space-borne techniques)

- Peta-bites of information will be then available for storage, classification and usage in new environments, models and assessment tools should be ready

- New perspectives derive from interaction with pollution/diseasessources

Loss of life

Source: EM-DAT

International Disaster Database

www.em-dat.net

Number of

events

Economic

losses

Predicting and warning of floods

(HFA2)

Predicting and warning of floods

(HFA2)

EWS have always been the strong point in Flood risk mitigation

• Huge advancement has been made at all levels:– Modelling in a fully integrated hydro-meteorological framework

– Include SOPs: e.g., Dams operations

– Address/Communicate uncertainty

– Incorporate new data sources (e.g., from satellites)

– Implementation in data scarse environments

• Challenges are – not to produce stream flow forecasts but to produce forcast of flooding impact scenarios• e-infrastructures

• Sharing data/models/knowledge/computing power

• Enabling larger communities including citizen scientists

IT IS TIME TO GO DOWN TO THE IMPACTS

Predicting and warning of floods

(HFA2)EWS have always been the strong point of Flood mitigation

• Huge advancement has been made at all levels:– Modelling in a fully integrated hydro-meteorological framework

– Include SOPs: e.g., Dams operations

– Address/Communicate uncertainty

– Incorporate new data sources (e.g., from satellites)

– Implementation in data scarse environments

• Challenges are – not to produce stream flow forecasts but to produce flooding scenarios

• e-infrastructures

• Sharing data/models/knowledge/computing power

• Enabling larger communities including citizen scientists

– Building people-centered warning systems. Include everybody in the loop through a more participatory approach, improve warning communication (CAP)

Predicting and warning of floods

(HFA2)EWS have always been the strong point of Flood mitigation

• Huge advancement has been made at all levels:– Modelling in a fully integrated hydro-meteorological framework

– Include SOPs: e.g., Dams operations

– Address/Communicate uncertainty

– Incorporate new data sources (e.g., from satellites)

– Implementation in data scarse environments

• Challenges are – not to produce stream flow forecasts but to produce flooding scenarios

• e-infrastructures

• Sharing data/models/knowledge/computing power

• Enabling larger communities including citizen scientists

– Building people-centered warning systems. Include everybody in the loop through a more participatory approach, improve warning communication (CAP)

– Monitor, archive and disseminate data, models & procedures:• INTEROPERABILITY

Model Forecasts

Risk Assessment-

UPDATE

Historic Floods -

UPDATE

Elements at Risk

RT STATIONS

INTEROPERABILITYINTEROPERABILITY

HAVING IT ALL

TOGETHER

HAVING IT ALL

TOGETHER

Education, advocacy and awareness

(HFA3)

• Challenges: transfer appropriate scientific results and findings to: – Other scientists of the same fields

– Other scientists in other fields

– DRR experts

– Governance at all levels

– News and Press

– Students (fast reception in school programs & university programs, 2° lvl master and Ph.D. programs )

– People and communities at large (dissemination activities and proactive web usage)

Proactive web usage

Reducing flood risk

(HFA4)

• Water is a resource: it is necessary to put forward the IFM motto: “maximizing the net benefit of the floodplains, minimizing loss of life”

• In this case depending on the place flood management cannot be separated from drought management and water management in general

• Ample frameworks for IWM including hazard can be and are developed, but still the approach tends to be sectorial

• Scientific/Technical sound tools for reducing hazard, vulnerability and exposure exist although they have now to cope with climate change issues

• Local/community based resilience is part of flood policies in many countries

• Lack of integration between development policies and DRR in general, many-times funds are post-disaster funds

• Immediate Post-disaster assessment has improved dramatically thanks to satellite derived products and can help identify the best mitigation measures that should be included in the immediate post disaster recovery phase

Earth Observation Contribution to Flood Management

Flood

Hazard

Flood

Vulnerability

Flood Risk

Map

Forecasting

Maps

Flood Extent

Maps

Damage

Assessment

Maps

Land-

useInfrastructure

Flood

heights

Hydrographic

network

Radar

data

Administrative

boundaries

Communication

networks

Geology

Soil parameters

Meteorological parameters

Topography

Land cover

Statistical

probablitiy

Flood

intensity

Flood

scenarios

Elements

at risk

Courtesy of Hubert et al, EGU, 2011

Flooded areas – Multitemporal map

Water depth evolution

Damage

SAR interferogram – SIGRIS Project

Water Depths – partial Dam Failure Scenario

Water Depths – partial Dam Failure Scenario

Preparing for responding to flood

impact

(HFA5)• Although emergency plans are in place the have

hardly been developed with people: more

participatory approaches are needed that

combine experts and non-experts in developing

local plans

• ICT is again a key factor in order to exchange

relevant information during events and

undertake post-event reviews

THANK YOU

“Understanding the coupling of human and

natural systems is the key to preventing a

hazard becoming a disaster…”

…from the

Integrated Research on Disaster Risks (IRDR) site