Review for Final in ISQS Review for Final in ISQS 33443344

Final will take place:Final will take place:

Tuesday, July 2, 2015, Tuesday, July 2, 2015,

7:30 am, this room7:30 am, this room

FormatFormat

100-150 multiple choice worth 100%100-150 multiple choice worth 100%• 30-50 of these are from previous 30-50 of these are from previous

segments of the coursesegments of the course

exam is closed exam is closed notes/closed booknotes/closed book

Exam will be Exam will be comprehensivecomprehensive

BringBring

PencilsPencils CalculatorCalculator Orange Scantron sheetOrange Scantron sheet

This exam will emphasize:This exam will emphasize:

What we have covered since the What we have covered since the second exam:second exam:• Forecasting, Chapter 12Forecasting, Chapter 12• Sales and Operations Planning, Sales and Operations Planning,

Chapter 14Chapter 14• JIT and Lean Production, Chapter 16JIT and Lean Production, Chapter 16• Project Management, Chapter 9Project Management, Chapter 9

OVERALL ContentOVERALL Content We have covered Chapters We have covered Chapters

1,2,3,4,5, 6,9,10,11,11s, 1,2,3,4,5, 6,9,10,11,11s, 12,13,14,14s, 15 (ERP), and 1612,13,14,14s, 15 (ERP), and 16

3/4ths of the test material will 3/4ths of the test material will come from the last third of the come from the last third of the course—course—

QuestionsQuestions

Name five characteristics of a projectName five characteristics of a project Successful project management entails Successful project management entails

what exactlywhat exactly Name five phases of the project lifecycleName five phases of the project lifecycle

• Show their sequenceShow their sequence Why is project management importantWhy is project management important Name four core knowledge areasName four core knowledge areas Name five facilitating knowledge areasName five facilitating knowledge areas

More questionsMore questions

What is the tenth knowledge area and What is the tenth knowledge area and what is its purposewhat is its purpose

Name some things we do poorly in Name some things we do poorly in projectsprojects

What device or construct is often used to What device or construct is often used to initiate a project?initiate a project?

What is a lean production system? What What is a lean production system? What is its purpose? Who originated lean is its purpose? Who originated lean concepts? Name 8 lean constructs.concepts? Name 8 lean constructs.

PMBOK – PMI’s Body of PMBOK – PMI’s Body of KnowledgeKnowledge

Four core knowledge areasFour core knowledge areas Scope, Time, Cost, QualityScope, Time, Cost, Quality Five Facilitating knowledge areasFive Facilitating knowledge areas Communications, Human Resources, Communications, Human Resources,

Risk, Procurememnt, StakeholderRisk, Procurememnt, Stakeholder One Integrating knowledge areaOne Integrating knowledge area Integration knowledge managementIntegration knowledge management

Problems in Multiple Problems in Multiple ChoiceChoice

A FORECASTING PROBLEM LIKE 12-10A FORECASTING PROBLEM LIKE 12-10 An aggregate planning (S&OP) An aggregate planning (S&OP)

PROBLEM LIKE 14-6PROBLEM LIKE 14-6 AN INVENTORY PROBLEM LIKE 13-6AN INVENTORY PROBLEM LIKE 13-6 Construct an activity on node network Construct an activity on node network

chart from a table; Determine duration, chart from a table; Determine duration, ES, EF, LS, LF and mark the critical pathES, EF, LS, LF and mark the critical path

FORECASTING--Two basic FORECASTING--Two basic categories of approachescategories of approaches

What are they??What are they??

Smoothing EffectsSmoothing Effects

150 150 –

125 125 –

100 100 –

75 75 –

50 50 –

25 25 –

0 0 –| | | | | | | | | | |

JanJan FebFeb MarMar AprApr MayMay JuneJune JulyJuly AugAug SeptSept OctOct NovNov

ActualActual

Ord

ers

Ord

ers

MonthMonth

5-month5-month

3-month3-month

Weighted Moving AverageWeighted Moving Average

WMAWMAnn = = ii = 1 = 1 WWii D Dii

wherewhere

WWii = the weight for period = the weight for period ii, ,

between 0 and 100 between 0 and 100 percentpercent

WWii = 1.00= 1.00

Adjusts Adjusts moving moving average average method to method to more closely more closely reflect data reflect data fluctuationsfluctuations

Weighted Moving Average Weighted Moving Average ExampleExample

MONTH MONTH WEIGHT WEIGHT DATADATA

AugustAugust 17%17% 130130SeptemberSeptember 33%33% 110110OctoberOctober 50%50% 9090

WMAWMA33 = = 33

ii = 1 = 1 WWii D Dii

= (0.50)(90) + (0.33)(110) + (0.17)(130)= (0.50)(90) + (0.33)(110) + (0.17)(130)

= 103.4 orders= 103.4 orders

November ForecastNovember Forecast

Averaging method Averaging method Weights most recent data more stronglyWeights most recent data more strongly Reacts more to recent changesReacts more to recent changes Widely used, accurate methodWidely used, accurate method

Exponential SmoothingExponential Smoothing

FFt t +1 +1 = = DDtt + (1 - + (1 - ))FFtt

where:where:

FFt t +1+1 = = forecast for next periodforecast for next period

DDtt == actual demand for present periodactual demand for present period

FFtt == previously determined forecast for previously determined forecast for

present periodpresent period

== weighting factor, smoothing constantweighting factor, smoothing constant

Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing (cont.)(cont.)

Effect of Smoothing ConstantEffect of Smoothing Constant

0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0

If If = 0.20, then = 0.20, then FFt t +1 +1 = 0.20= 0.20DDtt + 0.80 + 0.80 FFtt

If If = 0, then = 0, then FFtt +1 +1 = 0= 0DDtt + 1 + 1 FFtt 0 = 0 = FFtt

Forecast does not reflect recent dataForecast does not reflect recent data

If If = 1, then = 1, then FFt t +1 +1 = 1= 1DDtt + 0 + 0 FFtt ==DDtt Forecast based only on most recent dataForecast based only on most recent data

FF22 = = DD11 + (1 - + (1 - ))FF11

= (0.30)(37) + (0.70)(37)= (0.30)(37) + (0.70)(37)

= 37= 37

FF33 = = DD22 + (1 - + (1 - ))FF22

= (0.30)(40) + (0.70)(37)= (0.30)(40) + (0.70)(37)

= 37.9= 37.9

FF1313 = = DD1212 + (1 - + (1 - ))FF1212

= (0.30)(54) + (0.70)(50.84)= (0.30)(54) + (0.70)(50.84)

= 51.79= 51.79

Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing ((αα=0.30)=0.30)

PERIODPERIOD MONTHMONTHDEMANDDEMAND

11 JanJan 3737

22 FebFeb 4040

33 MarMar 4141

44 AprApr 3737

55 May May 4545

66 JunJun 5050

77 Jul Jul 4343

88 Aug Aug 4747

99 Sep Sep 5656

1010 OctOct 5252

1111 NovNov 5555

1212 Dec Dec 5454

FORECAST, FORECAST, FFtt + 1 + 1

PERIODPERIOD MONTHMONTH DEMANDDEMAND (( = 0.3) = 0.3) (( = 0.5) = 0.5)

11 JanJan 3737 –– ––22 FebFeb 4040 37.0037.00 37.0037.0033 MarMar 4141 37.9037.90 38.5038.5044 AprApr 3737 38.8338.83 39.7539.7555 May May 4545 38.2838.28 38.3738.3766 JunJun 5050 40.2940.29 41.6841.6877 Jul Jul 4343 43.2043.20 45.8445.8488 Aug Aug 4747 43.1443.14 44.4244.4299 Sep Sep 5656 44.3044.30 45.7145.71

1010 OctOct 5252 47.8147.81 50.8550.851111 NovNov 5555 49.0649.06 51.4251.421212 Dec Dec 5454 50.8450.84 53.2153.211313 JanJan –– 51.7951.79 53.6153.61

Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing (cont.)(cont.)

70 70 –

60 60 –

50 50 –

40 40 –

30 30 –

20 20 –

1010 –

0 0 –| | | | | | | | | | | | |11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99 1010 1111 1212 1313

ActualActual

Ord

ers

Ord

ers

MonthMonth

Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing (cont.)(cont.)

= 0.50= 0.50

= 0.30= 0.30

Adjusted Exponential Adjusted Exponential Smoothing ForecastsSmoothing Forecasts

70 70 –

60 60 –

50 50 –

40 40 –

30 30 –

20 20 –

1010 –

0 0 –| | | | | | | | | | | | |11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99 1010 1111 1212 1313

ActualActual

Dem

and

Dem

and

PeriodPeriod

Forecast (Forecast ( = 0.50) = 0.50)

Adjusted forecast (Adjusted forecast ( = 0.30) = 0.30)

yy = = aa + + bxbx

wherewherea a = intercept= interceptb b = slope of the line= slope of the linex x = time period= time periody y = forecast for = forecast for demand for period demand for period xx

Linear Trend LineLinear Trend Line

b =

a = y - b x

wheren = number of periods

x = = mean of the x values

y = = mean of the y values

xy - nxy

x2 - nx2

xn

yn

Linear trend line y = 35.2 + 1.72x

Forecast for period 13 y = 35.2 + 1.72(13) = 57.56 units

70 70 –

60 60 –

50 50 –

40 40 –

30 30 –

20 20 –

1010 –

0 0 –

| | | | | | | | | | | | |11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99 1010 1111 1212 1313

ActualActual

Dem

and

Dem

and

PeriodPeriod

Linear trend lineLinear trend line

Advantages of Linear Advantages of Linear Trend LineTrend Line

Very easy to do calculations in MS Very easy to do calculations in MS ExcelExcel

There is never any bias—consistently There is never any bias—consistently below or above the trendbelow or above the trend

Can forecast any number of periods Can forecast any number of periods out into the futureout into the future• Cannot do this with weighted moving Cannot do this with weighted moving

averages or with exponential smoothingaverages or with exponential smoothing

Seasonal AdjustmentsSeasonal Adjustments

Repetitive increase/ decrease in demandRepetitive increase/ decrease in demand Use seasonal factor to adjust forecastUse seasonal factor to adjust forecast Is equal to the period demand divided by the Is equal to the period demand divided by the

demand for the whole yeardemand for the whole year

Seasonal factor = Seasonal factor = SSii = =DDii

DD

Seasonal Adjustment Seasonal Adjustment (cont.)(cont.)

2002 12.62002 12.6 8.68.6 6.36.3 17.517.5 45.045.0

2003 14.12003 14.1 10.310.3 7.57.5 18.218.2 50.150.1

2004 15.32004 15.3 10.610.6 8.18.1 19.619.6 53.653.6

Total 42.0Total 42.0 29.529.5 21.921.9 55.355.3 148.7148.7

DEMAND (1000’S PER QUARTER)DEMAND (1000’S PER QUARTER)

YEARYEAR 11 22 33 44 TotalTotal

SS11 = = = 0.28 = = = 0.28 DD11

DD

42.042.0148.7148.7

SS22 = = = 0.20 = = = 0.20 DD22

DD

29.529.5148.7148.7

SS44 = = = 0.37 = = = 0.37 DD44

DD

55.355.3148.7148.7

SS33 = = = 0.15 = = = 0.15 DD33

DD

21.921.9148.7148.7

Seasonal Adjustment (cont.)Seasonal Adjustment (cont.)

SFSF1 1 = (= (SS11) () (FF55) = (0.28)(58.17) = 16.28) = (0.28)(58.17) = 16.28

SFSF2 2 = (= (SS22) () (FF55) = (0.20)(58.17) = 11.63) = (0.20)(58.17) = 11.63

SFSF3 3 = (= (SS33) () (FF55) = (0.15)(58.17) = 8.73) = (0.15)(58.17) = 8.73

SFSF4 4 = (= (SS44) () (FF55) = (0.37)(58.17) = 21.53) = (0.37)(58.17) = 21.53

yy = 40.97 + 4.30= 40.97 + 4.30x x = 40.97 + 4.30(4) = 58.17= 40.97 + 4.30(4) = 58.17

For 2005For 2005

Forecast AccuracyForecast Accuracy

Forecast errorForecast error• difference between forecast and actual difference between forecast and actual

demanddemand• MADMAD

– mean absolute deviationmean absolute deviation

• MAPDMAPD– mean absolute percent deviationmean absolute percent deviation

• Cumulative errorCumulative error• Average error or biasAverage error or bias

Mean Absolute Deviation Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)(MAD)

wherewhere tt = period number= period number

DDtt = demand in period = demand in period tt

FFtt = forecast for period = forecast for period tt

nn = total number of periods= total number of periods= absolute value= absolute value

DDtt - - FFtt nnMAD =MAD =

MAD Example

11 3737 37.0037.00 –– ––22 4040 37.0037.00 3.003.00 3.003.0033 4141 37.9037.90 3.103.10 3.103.1044 3737 38.8338.83 -1.83-1.83 1.831.8355 4545 38.2838.28 6.726.72 6.726.7266 5050 40.2940.29 9.699.69 9.699.6977 4343 43.2043.20 -0.20-0.20 0.200.2088 4747 43.1443.14 3.863.86 3.863.8699 5656 44.3044.30 11.7011.70 11.7011.70

1010 5252 47.8147.81 4.194.19 4.194.191111 5555 49.0649.06 5.945.94 5.945.941212 5454 50.8450.84 3.153.15 3.153.15

557557 49.3149.31 53.3953.39

PERIODPERIOD DEMAND, DEMAND, DDtt FFtt ( ( =0.3) =0.3) ((DDtt - - FFtt)) | |DDtt - - FFtt||

Dt - Ft nMAD =

=

= 4.85

53.3911

Other Accuracy MeasuresOther Accuracy Measures

Mean absolute percent deviation (MAPD)Mean absolute percent deviation (MAPD)

MAPD =MAPD =|D|Dtt - F - Ftt||

DDtt

Cumulative errorCumulative error

E = E = eett

Average errorAverage error

E =E =eett

nn

Comparison of Comparison of ForecastsForecasts

FORECASTFORECAST MADMAD MAPDMAPD EE ((EE))

Exponential smoothing (Exponential smoothing (= 0.30)= 0.30) 4.854.85 9.6%9.6% 49.3149.31 4.484.48

Exponential smoothing (Exponential smoothing (= 0.50)= 0.50) 4.044.04 8.5%8.5% 33.2133.21 3.023.02

Adjusted exponential smoothingAdjusted exponential smoothing 3.813.81 7.5%7.5% 21.1421.14 1.921.92

((= 0.50, = 0.50, = 0.30)= 0.30)

Linear trend lineLinear trend line 2.292.29 4.9%4.9% –– ––

Inventory CostsInventory Costs

Carrying or holding costsCarrying or holding costs Ordering costsOrdering costs

Stockout (shortage) costsStockout (shortage) costs Back-ordering costsBack-ordering costs

Annual Carrying costsAnnual Carrying costs

RentRent Lighting/heatingLighting/heating SecuritySecurity Interest (on borrowed capital tied up in Interest (on borrowed capital tied up in

inventory)inventory) TaxesTaxes Shrink/obsolescence/theftShrink/obsolescence/theft

Can also be expressed as a % of product costCan also be expressed as a % of product costA rule of thumb is 25%A rule of thumb is 25%

Ordering costs—costs Ordering costs—costs related torelated to

TransportationTransportation

ShippingShipping

ReceivingReceiving

InspectionInspection

Shortage costsShortage costs

This is an opportunity costThis is an opportunity cost Is ignored in the simple inventory Is ignored in the simple inventory

models, by assuming that there models, by assuming that there are no shortagesare no shortages

Consideration is given to shortages Consideration is given to shortages when we add safety stock to a when we add safety stock to a Reorder Point, R = d*L + safety Reorder Point, R = d*L + safety stockstock

Back-order costs??Back-order costs??

Will assume impatient customers Will assume impatient customers who must have the product they who must have the product they wish to buy wish to buy NOWNOW..

So back-ordering is not considered So back-ordering is not considered in the simple models we looked atin the simple models we looked at

Chapter 14 –S&OPChapter 14 –S&OP

S&OP – Sales and Operations S&OP – Sales and Operations PlanningPlanning

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

14-38

Sales and Operations Sales and Operations Planning – Chapter 14Planning – Chapter 14

Determines the resource capacity Determines the resource capacity needed to meet demand over an needed to meet demand over an intermediate time horizonintermediate time horizon• AggregateAggregate refers to sales and operations refers to sales and operations

planning for product lines or familiesplanning for product lines or families• Sales and Operations planning (S&OP)Sales and Operations planning (S&OP)

matches supply and demandmatches supply and demand ObjectivesObjectives

• Establish a company wide game plan for Establish a company wide game plan for allocating resourcesallocating resources

• Develop an economic strategy for meeting Develop an economic strategy for meeting demanddemand

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

14-39

Sales and Operations Sales and Operations Planning ProcessPlanning Process

What are the inputs to the What are the inputs to the aggregate planning aggregate planning system??system??

Demand forecastsDemand forecasts Capacity constraintsCapacity constraints Strategic objectivesStrategic objectives Company policiesCompany policies Financial constraintsFinancial constraints NOT…NOT…

• Size of workforceSize of workforce• Inventory levelsInventory levels• Units subcontractedUnits subcontracted• Overtime scheduledOvertime scheduled

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

14-41

The Monthly S&OP Planning The Monthly S&OP Planning ProcessProcess

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

14-42

Meeting Demand Meeting Demand StrategiesStrategies

Adjusting capacityAdjusting capacity• Resources necessary to meet Resources necessary to meet

demand are acquired and maintained demand are acquired and maintained over the time horizon of the planover the time horizon of the plan

• Minor variations in demand are Minor variations in demand are handled with overtime or under-timehandled with overtime or under-time

Managing demandManaging demand• Proactive demand managementProactive demand management

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

14-43

Strategies for Adjusting Strategies for Adjusting CapacityCapacity

Level productionLevel production• Producing at a constant Producing at a constant

rate and using inventory rate and using inventory to absorb fluctuations in to absorb fluctuations in demanddemand

Chase demandChase demand• Hiring and firing workers Hiring and firing workers

to match demandto match demand Peak demandPeak demand

• Maintaining resources for Maintaining resources for high-demand levelshigh-demand levels

Overtime and under-timeOvertime and under-time• Increasing or decreasing Increasing or decreasing

working hoursworking hours SubcontractingSubcontracting

• Let outside companies Let outside companies complete the workcomplete the work

Part-time workersPart-time workers• Hiring part time workers to Hiring part time workers to

complete the workcomplete the work BackorderingBackordering

• Providing the service or Providing the service or product at a later time product at a later time periodperiod

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

14-44

Strategies for Adjusting Strategies for Adjusting CapacityCapacity

Level productionLevel production• Producing at a constant Producing at a constant

rate and using inventory rate and using inventory to absorb fluctuations in to absorb fluctuations in demanddemand

Chase demandChase demand• Hiring and firing workers Hiring and firing workers

to match demandto match demand Peak demandPeak demand

• Maintaining resources for Maintaining resources for high-demand levelshigh-demand levels

Overtime and under-timeOvertime and under-time• Increasing or decreasing Increasing or decreasing

working hoursworking hours SubcontractingSubcontracting

• Let outside companies Let outside companies complete the workcomplete the work

Part-time workersPart-time workers• Hiring part time workers to Hiring part time workers to

complete the workcomplete the work BackorderingBackordering

• Providing the service or Providing the service or product at a later time product at a later time periodperiod

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

14-45

Level ProductionLevel Production

DemandDemand

Un

its

Un

its

TimeTime

ProductionProduction

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

14-46

Chase DemandChase Demand

DemandDemand

Un

its

Un

its

TimeTime

ProductionProduction

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 14-47

Strategies for Managing Strategies for Managing DemandDemand

Shifting demand into Shifting demand into other time periodsother time periods• IncentivesIncentives• Sales promotionsSales promotions• Advertising campaignsAdvertising campaigns

Offering products or Offering products or services with counter-services with counter-cyclical demand cyclical demand patternspatterns

Partnering with Partnering with suppliers to reduce suppliers to reduce information distortion information distortion along the supply chainalong the supply chain

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

14-48

Quantitative Techniques For Quantitative Techniques For APAP

Pure StrategiesPure Strategies Mixed StrategiesMixed Strategies Linear ProgrammingLinear Programming Transportation Transportation

MethodMethod Other Quantitative Other Quantitative

TechniquesTechniques

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

14-49

Pure StrategiesPure Strategies

Hiring costHiring cost = $100 per worker= $100 per workerFiring costFiring cost = $500 per worker= $500 per worker

Inventory carrying costInventory carrying cost = $0.50 pound per quarter= $0.50 pound per quarter Regular production cost per poundRegular production cost per pound = $2.00= $2.00 Production per employeeProduction per employee = 1,000 pounds per quarter= 1,000 pounds per quarter Beginning work forceBeginning work force = 100 workers= 100 workers

QUARTERQUARTER SALES FORECAST (LB)SALES FORECAST (LB)

SpringSpring 80,00080,000SummerSummer 50,00050,000FallFall 120,000120,000WinterWinter 150,000150,000

Example:Example:

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

14-50

Level Production StrategyLevel Production StrategyLevel production

= 100,000 pounds(50,000 + 120,000 + 150,000 + 80,000)

4

Spring 80,000 100,000 20,000Summer 50,000 100,000 70,000Fall 120,000 100,000 50,000Winter 150,000 100,000 0

400,000 140,000Cost of Level Production Strategy(400,000 X $2.00) + (140,00 X $.50) = $870,000

SALES PRODUCTIONQUARTER FORECAST PLAN INVENTORY

Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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Chase Demand StrategyChase Demand Strategy

SpringSpring 80,00080,000 80,00080,000 8080 00 2020SummerSummer 50,00050,000 50,00050,000 5050 00 3030FallFall 120,000120,000 120,000120,000 120120 7070 00WinterWinter 150,000150,000 150,000150,000 150150 3030 00

100100 5050

SALESSALES PRODUCTIONPRODUCTION WORKERSWORKERS WORKERSWORKERS WORKERSWORKERSQUARTERQUARTER FORECASTFORECAST PLANPLAN NEEDEDNEEDED HIREDHIRED FIREDFIRED

Cost of Chase Demand StrategyCost of Chase Demand Strategy(400,000 X $2.00) + (100 x $100) + (50 x $500) = $835,000 (400,000 X $2.00) + (100 x $100) + (50 x $500) = $835,000

Chapter 9 – Project Chapter 9 – Project ManagementManagement

Why has Project Why has Project Management become so Management become so in-vogue?in-vogue?

Diversity of new products and product markets

Shorter life span of products Rapid technological changes

What are the major What are the major reasons for project failure?reasons for project failure?

Inadequate initiation, planningInadequate initiation, planning• Specifically, inadequate requirementsSpecifically, inadequate requirements

Absence of a planAbsence of a plan Estimates are not accurateEstimates are not accurate Unavailable resources when neededUnavailable resources when needed Scope and hope creepScope and hope creep Unresponsive contractors who Unresponsive contractors who

deliver their product latedeliver their product late

What are the four phases What are the four phases of the project lifecycle?of the project lifecycle?

InitiatingInitiating PlanningPlanning ExecutingExecuting ClosingClosing

One other: Monitoring and ControlOne other: Monitoring and Control

In which of these phases is In which of these phases is a WBS started?a WBS started?

PlanningPlanning• First 3 levelsFirst 3 levels

The main purpose of a The main purpose of a project plan is ____project plan is ____

acquire resourcesacquire resources

guide project guide project executionexecution..

meet standards expectations.meet standards expectations. reduce risk.

The most important The most important output of project output of project execution isexecution is

Work productsWork products Not---change requestsNot---change requests Not—the WBSNot—the WBS

The Principle…The Principle…

That work tends to fill up the time That work tends to fill up the time allotted to it is known as…..allotted to it is known as…..

An activity has probabilistic An activity has probabilistic completion times of 20, 50 completion times of 20, 50 and 80 for the optimistic, and 80 for the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic most likely and pessimistic durations.durations.What is the average time (duration) What is the average time (duration)

assuming a beta distribution?assuming a beta distribution? 3030 4040 5050 6060 7070

You should knowYou should know

How to construct a NETWORK How to construct a NETWORK chart from a tablechart from a table

How to construct a Gantt chart How to construct a Gantt chart from a tablefrom a table

How to perform NETWORK How to perform NETWORK crashing crashing

How to do EVAHow to do EVA

For each chapter….For each chapter….

Skim the chapterSkim the chapter Examine the SUMMARY and the Examine the SUMMARY and the

SUMMARY OF KEY TERMS SUMMARY OF KEY TERMS SECTIONS at the end of each SECTIONS at the end of each chapterchapter

Chapter 2: Quality Chapter 2: Quality ManagementManagement

Know the four operation typesKnow the four operation types Know the three types of make-to-Know the three types of make-to- Know the four dimensions of Know the four dimensions of

competitioncompetition What does DMAIC stand for?What does DMAIC stand for?

Chapter 3: Quality Chapter 3: Quality ManagementManagement

Name three quality gurusName three quality gurus Describe the relationship between Describe the relationship between

TQM and continuous improvementTQM and continuous improvement Understand the costs of qualityUnderstand the costs of quality What is the relationship between What is the relationship between

quality and productivity?quality and productivity?• Remember the yield formula??Remember the yield formula??

Chapter 4: Statistical Chapter 4: Statistical Quality ControlQuality Control

Know p-charts, c-charts, xbar-Know p-charts, c-charts, xbar-charts, rbar-chartscharts, rbar-charts

Which of these are used for Which of these are used for attributes, which for variables?attributes, which for variables?

Will not test you on AOQ, LTPDWill not test you on AOQ, LTPD• {old antiquated concepts}{old antiquated concepts}

Chapter 6: Processes and Chapter 6: Processes and TechnologiesTechnologies

Quality Function DeploymentQuality Function Deployment

House of QualityHouse of Quality

Chapter 6, Cont’d: Chapter 6, Cont’d: Process Planning, Process Planning, Analysis…Analysis…

Process analysis, flowchartsProcess analysis, flowcharts• SYMBOLS: Operation, Inspect, SYMBOLS: Operation, Inspect,

Transport, Delay, StorageTransport, Delay, Storage Flexible Manufacturing Sys, Flexible Manufacturing Sys,

RoboticsRobotics IT: ExNETWORK Systems, Decision IT: ExNETWORK Systems, Decision

Support SystemsSupport Systems CIMCIM

Reengineering design Reengineering design principlesprinciples

Eliminate handoffsEliminate handoffs Organize around outputsOrganize around outputs Capture information once at the Capture information once at the

sourcesource Eliminate multiple external contact Eliminate multiple external contact

pointspoints Simplify workSimplify work

Chapter 10: Supply Chain Chapter 10: Supply Chain ManagementManagement

Logistics by any other nameLogistics by any other name IT IntegrationIT Integration The bane of SCM is ______?The bane of SCM is ______?

Chapter 14: Sales & Chapter 14: Sales & Operations PlanningOperations Planning

Three planning Three planning horizonshorizons

Long-range planningLong-range planning Medium range planning—Medium range planning—

aggregate prod planningaggregate prod planning Short-range planningShort-range planning

Chapter 16: Just-in-time Chapter 16: Just-in-time and Lean Productionand Lean Production

Name five approaches to Name five approaches to leanness…leanness…

What does SMED mean?What does SMED mean? How can small lots be made How can small lots be made

economically effective?economically effective?

Chapter 15: Enterprise Chapter 15: Enterprise Resource PlanningResource Planning

ERP Implementation is _____ERP Implementation is _____

Chapter 9: Project Chapter 9: Project ManagementManagement

Probabilistic NETWORK—be able to Probabilistic NETWORK—be able to find the mean and standard deviation find the mean and standard deviation when given an optimistic, most likely when given an optimistic, most likely and pessimistic estimateand pessimistic estimate

BE able to calculate BE able to calculate project duration, project project duration, project variance for NETWORK variance for NETWORK project TASKSproject TASKS

Network diagrams, Network diagrams, drawn by commercial drawn by commercial softwaresoftware

Do they use Do they use •Activity-on-Node, or Activity-on-Node, or •Activity-on-Arrow Activity-on-Arrow representations?representations?

That’s all folksThat’s all folks

{I enjoyed having you as a class}{I enjoyed having you as a class}