Renewable Energy in Ireland

2013

Overview

• Context

• Renewable Electricity

• Renewable Transport

• Renewable Heat

• Overall Renewables

• Avoided Fossil Fuels and Carbon Emissions

• Conclusions

Policy Context

• Kyoto Protocol

• EU Emissions Trading Scheme

• EU Non-ETS Targets (2009/406/EC)

• Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC)

Policy Context

• National Renewable Energy Action Plan

• Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff

• Biofuels Obligation Scheme

• Building Regulations Part L

• Offshore Renewable Energy Development Plan

• Bioenergy Plan

• Geothermal Energy Development Bill

• Electric Vehicle Incentives

Energy Markets

• Energy use can be characterized by mode of application

• Electricity Generation (RES-E)

• Transport (RES-T)

• Heating (of spaces or for process) (RES-H)

Renewable Energy Targets for 2020

• All Renewables: EU target for Ireland of 16%

• RES-T: EU target of 10%

• RES-E: Government target of 40%

• RES-H: Government target of 12%

Renewable Electricity (RES-E)

Electricity Generation Fuel Inputs

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Mto

e

Coal Peat Oil Natural Gas Renewables NR Wastes Net Imports

13%

Gross Electricity Consumption by Fuel

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

TWh

Coal Peat Oil Natural Gas Renewables NR Wastes Net Imports

20%

Gross Electricity Generation

Wind Installed Capacity

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Tota

l Win

d Ca

paci

ty (M

We)

Ann

ual W

ind

Capa

city

Gro

wth

(MW

e)

Annual Wind Growth Total Wind Installed Capacity

Wind Energy Contribution

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

GW

h

Capa

city

Fac

tor

Annual capacity factor 5 year average capacity factorElectricity from wind Normalised electricity from wind

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

% o

f Gro

ss E

lect

rici

ty C

onsu

mpt

ion

Hydro (normalised) Wind (normalised) Landfill Gas Biogas Biomass

Renewable Contribution to Gross Final ElectricityRES-E (2013) 20.1%

Normalised 20.9%

Estimated €300 million in imported fuel savings;Of which €240 million due to wind

Progress Towards RES-E Targets

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

RES-E 2020 Government Target (40%) 2010 Government Target (15%)

Renewable Transport (RES-T)

Biofuels Obligation Scheme

• 6% by volume of road transport fuel must be biofuel

– ~ 4.0% in energy terms for biogasoline/petrol

– ~ 5.7% in energy terms for biodiesel/diesel

• 4% from July 2010 to Dec 2012

• Advanced biofuels and biofuels from wastes have a

weighting factor of 2

Biofuels Obligation Scheme

• From July 2012 biofuel must satisfy sustainability

criteria

• minimum GHG saving of 35%

• This will increase to 50% in 2017 and 60% in 2018

• NORA estimates average 76% GHG saving achieved

for biofuels sold in Ireland in 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

8020

07

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Biodiesel Bioethanol / Biogasoline Pure Plant Oil

ktoe

Imports Indigenous Production Primary Energy Supply

Biofuel Production and Imports

~70% Biodiesel

~30% Biogasoline

~ 100% of which double certified

~ 0% of which double certified

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Biofuels Share Weighted Biofuels Share

Transport Renewable Energy4.8%

2.8%

Progress Towards RES-T Targets

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Biofuels Share Weighted Biofuels Share EU 2020 target (10%)National 2010 target (3%) EU 2008 target (2%)

Renewable Heat (RES-H)

Renewable Heat

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Biomass Biogas Solar Geothermal

Renewable Heat

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

RES-H 2020 Government Target (12%) 2010 Government Target (5%)

Overall Renewables

Context for Renewable Energy in 2013

RE = 6.8% of TPER

RES-E20.9%

RES-H5.7%

RES-T4.9%RE Directive

7.8% of GFC

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Rene

wab

le E

nerg

y Co

ntri

buti

on to

GFC

(kto

e)

Hydro (normalised) Wind (normalised) Landfill Gas BiogasBiomass Liquid Biofuels Geothermal Solar

Renewable Contribution to Gross Final Consumption (ktoe)

839 ktoe in 2013

Renewable Contribution to Gross Final Consumption (%)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Rene

wab

le E

nerg

y Co

ntri

buti

on to

GFC

(%)

Hydro (normalised) Wind (normalised) Landfill Gas BiogasBiomass Liquid Biofuels Geothermal Solar

7.8% in 2013

Renewable Contribution to GFC by Mode

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rene

wab

le C

ontr

ibut

ion

to G

FC %

RES-H RES-T RES-E% Normalised

4.5%

0.9%

2.3%

Renewable Energy Progress to Targets

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Overall Renewables 2020 EU Target

Displacement of Fossil Fuels and Associated CO2 Emissions

Fossil Fuel Displacement

• Full Dispatch Model Approach

– Detailed, sophisticated approach

– Very data and labour intensive

– Comprehensively accounts for range of dynamic effects and interactions between renewables and fossil plant

– SEAI report “Quantifying Ireland’s Fuel and CO2emissions Savings from Renewable Electricity in 2012”

– Not practical to run on an annual basis

Fossil Fuel Displacement

• Primary Energy Equivalent Approach

– Simplified approach

– Not very data or labour intensive

– Useful & appropriate for investigating trends

– Used by SEAI for annual reports

Fossil Fuel Displacement

• Primary Energy Equivalent Approach

– Concerns regarding scale of dynamic effects alleviated as these have been shown to be small by Dispatch Model results ( increase of ~2% in overall carbon intensity of fossil generators)

– Conservative adjustment made to PEE results for 2011-2013 to account for these effects, based on results of the 2012 Dispatch Model

– PEE approach validated by 2012 Dispatch Model

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1990 2010 2012

Prim

ary

Ener

gy E

quiv

alen

t kto

e

Solid Biomass (H) Biogas (H) Geothermal (H) Solar Thermal (H)Liquid Biofuels (T) Landfill Gas (E) Hydro (E) Wind (E)Solid Biomass (E) Renewable Wastes (E)

Avoided Fossil Fuels from Renewable Energy

~ 1,303 ktoe in 2013 in total~ 963 ktoe in electricity generation~ 723 ktoe avoided by wind

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1990 2010 2012

kt C

O2

Solid Biomass (H) Biogas (H) Geothermal (H) Solar Thermal (H)Liquid Biofuels (T) Landfill Gas (E) Hydro (E) Wind (E)Solid Biomass (E) Renewable Wastes (E)

Avoided CO2 from Renewable EnergyApproximately 2.9 Mt CO2 in 2013 in total

Approximately 2.4 Mt CO2 in electricity generationApproximately 1.7 Mt CO2 avoided by wind

The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland is partly financed by Ireland’s EU Structural Funds Programme co-funded by the Irish Government and the European Union.

Thank you.

http://www.seai.ie/Publications/Statistics_Publications/EPSSU_Publications/