READY-TO-USE DATANew sources of open risk information

Global Assessment Report

Global Risk Assessment

RISK

What is “risk”?

consequences

uncertainty

eventsprobabilityseverity

• Risk is the probability of an adverse outcome (Graham and Weiner, 1995)

• Risk is a measure of the probability and severity of adverse effects (Lowrance, 1976)

• Risk is the combination of probability of an event and its consequences (UNISDR, 2007)

• Risk assessment thus analyse what could happen in a near future following hazardous events (e.g. floods, cyclones, earthquakes)

• Further than “what could happen”, the risk assessment also provide information on “how likely this is to happen”

• Once the decision makers know how likely and how severe the events (and their consequences) are, they can act upon them

What is “risk”?

RISKconsequences

uncertainty

eventsprobabilityseverity

Global Exposure Database• The Global Exposure Database provides the distribution of the value of

the urban built environment around the world in a 5Km x 5 Km grid

Global hazard assessment• Earthquake Hazard for different return periods, developed using the open

source program CRISIS2012 (www.ecapra.org)

• Cyclonic wind hazard for different return periods, developed using the open source program ERN-Hurricane (www.ecapra.org)

Global hazard assessment

• Tsunami hazard for ~1 in 500 years return period

Global hazard assessment

• Global Flood Model, pilot study for Thailand

Global hazard assessment

CAPRACOMPREHENSIVE APPROACH TO PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT

www.ecapra.org

Global Risk Assessment

• Annual Average Losses (AAL)Estimated average loss per year, over a long time period and considering the range of loss scenarios with different occurrence probabilities

• Probable Maximum Losses (AAL)Maximum loss that could be experienced in the occurrence of a disaster with a particular return period

Global Risk Assessment

Global Risk Assessment

Global Risk Assessment

Drought Hazard and Risk• Agricultural drought hazard for Africa and the Mediterranean Regions

between 2000 and 2010• Assessment of likelihood of crop losses for Mali, Niger, Mozambique and

Kenya

OPEN QUAKE• Developed by the Global Earthquake Model

• Web-based risk assessment platform, an integrated environment for modelling, viewing, exploring, and managing earthquake risk

… Looking forward

Global Volcano ModelA sustainable, accessible platform for information on volcanic hazard

and risk

CEVWOVO

GNS New

Zealand

VHUB

UNAM

• Global assessment of relative threat for each volcano at a national scale

• Regional stochastic models of volcanic ashfall and risk case studies

… Looking forward

All the GAR13 (and more) data available from:www.preventionweb/gar

Further information on data uses, methods and tools in the Global Assessment Report 2013 Annex 1

Thank you

www.preventionweb.net/gar