Public opinion poll in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH ... · Republika Srpska (22%) and in the Brcko...

Public opinion poll in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH)October 2009

Introduction and methodology

Quantitative research using faceQuantitative research using face--toto--face methodface method

Sample size n=1500 respoSample size n=1500 responndents aged 18+dents aged 18+

TwoTwo--stage stratified random sample (stratification by region and stage stratified random sample (stratification by region and settlement type)settlement type)

Data collection timing: 8Data collection timing: 8 to to 2323 October 2009October 2009

Party ratings were obtained using Party ratings were obtained using ““secret ballotsecret ballotss””

General issuesGeneral issues | right | right –– wrong directionwrong direction

Government Government performanceperformance

EU / NATO integrationEU / NATO integration

Voting preferences among likely votersVoting preferences among likely voters

Opinions on Opinions on BiHBiH’’ss territorial organizationterritorial organization

Policy issuesPolicy issues

General issuesGeneral issuesMore than twoMore than two--thirds (83%) of all citizens think that thirds (83%) of all citizens think that BiHBiH is going in the wrong direction. is going in the wrong direction.

The percentage of those who think that The percentage of those who think that BiHBiH is going in right direction is higher in the is going in right direction is higher in the RepublikaRepublika SrpskaSrpska (22%) and in the (22%) and in the BrckoBrcko District (31%) than in the Federation of District (31%) than in the Federation of BiHBiH (7%). (7%).

More than half (51%) of citizens believe that their life is worsMore than half (51%) of citizens believe that their life is worse and onee and one--third says that their third says that their life is the same (35%). The percentage of those who think that tlife is the same (35%). The percentage of those who think that their life is better is heir life is better is somewhat higher among those with higher education and professionsomewhat higher among those with higher education and professional rank.al rank.

Two thirds (66%) of citizens see unemployment as main problem thTwo thirds (66%) of citizens see unemployment as main problem that at BiHBiH is facing today. is facing today. The other two main problems are crime (29%) and corruption (27%)The other two main problems are crime (29%) and corruption (27%)

Bosnia-Herzegovina’s major political parties

Federation-based parties• Bosnian Party (BOSS)• Bosnian Patriotic Party (BPS) • Civic Democratic Party (GDS) • Croatian Democratic Union 1990

(HDZ 1990)• Croatian Democratic Union of

Bosnia Herzegovina (HDZ-BiH) • New Croatian Initiative - Croatian

Peasants’ Party (NHI-HSS) • Democratic National Union (DNZ) • Liberal Democratic Party (LDS)• Nasa Stranka (NS) • Party of Democratic Action (SDA)• Party for Bosnia-Herzegovina

(SBiH) • Social Democratic Party (SDP)

Republika Srpska-based parties• Democratic Party (DP) • Democratic People's Union (DNS) • Party of Democratic Progress

(PDP)• Party of Independent Social

Democrats (SNSD)• Socialist Party of Republika

Srpska (SPRS)• Serb Democratic Party (SDS) • Serb Radical Party (SRS) RS• Serb Radical Party (SRS) VS

Right–wrong direction – by party preference

13%27%

8% 10% 20%2% 13% 4% 1%

4% 11% 10% 6%

83%67%

89% 85%73%

96% 87% 93% 97%

94%80%

96% 89% 86% 88%

4% 7% 3% 5% 7% 2% 0% 3% 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 6%

Right direction

Wrong direction

Biggest problems facing BiH today

Opinions on Opinions on BiHBiH territorial organizationterritorial organization

Among the five top priorities for the government, respondents raAmong the five top priorities for the government, respondents ranked the reduction of nked the reduction of unemployment (73%) as most important, followed by improvements tunemployment (73%) as most important, followed by improvements to the standard of living o the standard of living (71%), reduction of crime and corruption (69%), improvements of (71%), reduction of crime and corruption (69%), improvements of the situation of war the situation of war victims (65%), and EU accession (64%). However, EU accession as victims (65%), and EU accession (64%). However, EU accession as a top single priority a top single priority ranked first for 34%, before the reduction of unemployment (32%)ranked first for 34%, before the reduction of unemployment (32%) and the improvement of and the improvement of the situation of war victims (30%). Only 13% of the respondents the situation of war victims (30%). Only 13% of the respondents gave constitutional reform gave constitutional reform the first rank, and merely 17% opted for the protection of theithe first rank, and merely 17% opted for the protection of their ethnic group as their first r ethnic group as their first priority. priority.

Government dissatisfaction mirrors citizensGovernment dissatisfaction mirrors citizens’’ top priorities: 89% of respondents are top priorities: 89% of respondents are unsatisfied or very unsatisfied with the reduction of unemploymeunsatisfied or very unsatisfied with the reduction of unemployment and 88% with both the nt and 88% with both the reduction crime and corruption and the improvement of the standreduction crime and corruption and the improvement of the standard of living. ard of living.

On the other hand, 29% are satisfied or very satisfied with the On the other hand, 29% are satisfied or very satisfied with the protection of their ethnic protection of their ethnic group and the return of the refugees and displaced persons, whilgroup and the return of the refugees and displaced persons, while 28% are satisfied or very e 28% are satisfied or very satisfied with tourism development. RS citizens and SNSD voters satisfied with tourism development. RS citizens and SNSD voters are slightly more satisfied are slightly more satisfied with RS government performance on reduction of crime and corruptwith RS government performance on reduction of crime and corruption than respondents in ion than respondents in the Federation.the Federation.

Concerning government performance on EU accession, citizens in Concerning government performance on EU accession, citizens in the the RepublikaRepublika SrpskaSrpska, , and among them potential voters of SNSD and PDP, are more satisfand among them potential voters of SNSD and PDP, are more satisfied than citizens of the ied than citizens of the Federation. Federation.

Government performance

Most important tasks for governmentImagine yourself in a situation where you determine the government’s most important tasks that must be done.

Level of satisfaction with issues related to government performance (slide 1 of 2)How satisfied are you with the current government’s way of solving the following issues:

Level of satisfaction with issues related to government performance (slide 2 of 2)How satisfied are you with the current government’s way of solving the following issues:

Government performance – European Union accession

38% 39%

37% 40%54%

27%13%

48%22% 26%

47% 38%25%

41% 39% 45%30% 23%

66%42%

42% 48%28%

48% 57%45% 36% 33%

45% 35%52%

32%45%

59%38%

55% 53%35%

63%39%

17%31%

47%34% 39% 34%

14% 7% 3% 10% 2% 0%

30% 36%

32% 22%43%

5% 3%23%

3% 6% 12% 7%33%

27% 22%0% 10% 9%

3% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 6% 9% 1% 7% 0% 8% 2% 0% 7% 0% 2% 4% 0% 6% 0% 0%24%

0% 3% 0%

3% 4% 1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 9% 1% 5% 0% 3% 1% 1% 8% 1% 0% 4% 0% 0% 5% 0% 4% 0% 6% 3%

Very unsatisfied

Unsatisfied

Satisfied

Very satisfied

’t w

Government performance - Raising the standard of living

54% 62%77%

51% 55% 65%39% 42%

63%40%

23% 31%57% 54% 46%

67% 58% 60%82%

73%52% 52%

81%54% 63%

34% 34%21%

32% 41% 33% 37% 41% 32% 38%21%

39% 36% 41% 35% 30% 37% 34%18%

42%23% 26% 23% 19%

33% 30%

9% 2% 2%13% 3% 2%

19% 10% 3%16%

35% 28%4% 4% 9% 4% 2% 5% 0%

14% 5% 0% 8% 5%

2% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 2% 2% 1% 2%20%

0% 2% 1% 5% 0% 3% 1% 0% 4% 0% 8% 14%0% 1% 1%

2% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 2% 5% 1% 3% 0% 3% 1% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 5% 0% 4% 1%

’t w

Very unsatisfied

Unsatisfied

Satisfied

Very satisfied

Government performance - Reduction of corruption and crime

58%72% 80%

57% 56% 64%43% 46%

66%44%

27% 35%61% 58%

48%62% 55%

78% 75%

62%49% 50%

75%63% 71%

30% 24% 16% 23%39% 31% 31% 41%

28% 35% 35% 36% 30% 39% 34% 32% 35%19% 24%

30% 21% 16% 25% 21% 22%

9% 1% 2% 11% 4% 4%19%

9% 4%15%

34%24%

4% 3% 12% 6% 4% 3% 1% 2% 4%

30% 20%0% 8% 5%

2% 1% 1% 6% 1% 0% 5% 1% 1% 4% 5% 3% 3% 0% 1% 0% 5% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0%14%

0% 4% 1%

1% 1% 2% 2% 0% 0% 2% 3% 1% 2% 0% 2% 1% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1%

’t w

Very unsatisfied

Unsatisfied

Satisfied

Very satisfied

Government performance – Reduction of unemployment

62% 73% 79%56% 65% 66%

50% 55%69%

51%30%

41%63% 68% 59% 64% 57%

80% 80%

61%43%

78% 70% 70%

27% 23% 17% 26% 31% 28% 26% 34% 25% 29% 27% 30% 31% 28% 28% 33% 34%20% 19%

11% 13% 22% 15% 16% 25%

8% 2% 2%14% 3% 5%

18% 7% 4% 14%30% 24%

5% 4% 9% 3% 6% 0% 0% 3% 0%21% 17% 6% 8% 4%

2% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 5% 3% 0% 4% 13% 4% 1% 1% 2% 0% 3% 0% 1% 6% 0% 5%19%

0% 3% 1%

1% 1% 2% 2% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1%

’t w

Very unsatisfied

Unsatisfied

Satisfied

Very satisfied

Opinions in Opinions in BiHBiH’’ss territorial arrangementsterritorial arrangements

Support accession to EU– whole sampleDo you personally support or oppose BiH accession to the EU?

Support accession to EU– by entityDo you personally support or oppose BiH accession to the EU?

Support accession to EU– by demographyDo you personally support or oppose BiH accession to the EU?

Completely support

Somewhat support

Somewhat do not support

Completely do not support

61% 60% 61% 59% 53%67% 64% 63% 60% 61% 58% 56% 62% 70% 64% 59% 60% 56%

26% 24% 27% 25% 33%22% 22% 25% 26% 27% 29% 29% 23% 18% 24% 29% 26% 20%

6% 7% 6% 8% 7% 5% 6% 4% 7% 6% 8% 6% 8% 4% 5% 7% 7% 10%

6% 8% 4% 7% 7% 5% 6% 7% 6% 5% 5% 7% 6% 6% 5% 4% 5% 13%

1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 2% 2% 0% 1% 0%

Gender Age Education OccupationWorking status

61%77%

57%75%

53%36% 47%

40%28%

58% 63% 74%62%

41%62% 59% 61% 65%

53% 61% 62%

26%14% 7%

26% 21% 32% 43%29% 18%

38% 43%27% 25% 19% 24%

36%21% 26% 27% 22%

34% 28% 23%

6% 2% 0% 9% 2% 12% 10% 9% 4% 10%23%

8% 5% 3% 9% 11% 5% 6% 5% 5% 8% 8% 8%

6% 6% 2% 6% 1% 4% 9% 13% 3% 11% 5% 6% 6% 3% 5% 10% 12% 8% 5% 7% 5% 3% 5%

1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 2%

Support accession to EU– by geographyDo you personally support or oppose BiH accession to the EU?

Region Entity Nationality Type of settlement Personal income

Completely support

Somewhat support

61%41%

80%69%

75% 80%

45% 48%

82%70%

38%53%

63% 65%

26%37%

16%25%

46%31%

11%20%

40% 38%

8%18% 13%

39%21% 22%

6% 12%3% 4% 10% 14% 9%

0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 5% 3% 9% 5%

6% 8% 1% 0%11% 4% 6% 0%

11% 12% 11% 12%

6% 7% 6%

1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 1% 2%

Support accession to EU– by party preferenceDo you personally support or oppose BiH accession to the EU?

Completely support

Somewhat support

Support for joining NATO – whole sampleDo you personally support or oppose BiH NATO membership?

Support for joining NATO – by entityDo you personally support or oppose BiH NATO membership?

Support for joining NATO – by ethnicityDo you personally support or oppose BiH NATO membership?

Support for joining NATO – by demographyDo you personally support or oppose BiH NATO membership?

44% 45% 44% 43% 40%49% 46% 48% 42% 49% 44% 40% 43% 50% 51% 50% 43% 38%

24% 23% 26% 26% 28%20% 24% 26% 23% 26% 26% 24% 24% 21% 25% 29% 24%

8% 9% 7% 9% 10% 8% 5% 3% 10% 8% 11% 7% 6% 4% 7% 6% 9% 14%

19% 22% 17% 20% 20% 19% 18% 16% 21% 15% 17% 21% 24% 19% 14% 15% 20% 26%

4% 1% 7% 2% 3% 4% 8% 7% 4% 3% 1% 7% 2% 6% 3% 1% 3% 6%

Gender Age Education OccupationWorking status

Completely support

Somewhat support

Completely support

Somewhat support

44%32%

60% 52%

12% 12%

44% 42% 47%61% 64%

16%37% 40% 43% 41% 37%

56% 50%

24% 27% 34% 36% 27%10%

26% 21%31% 23% 25% 25% 28% 21% 30% 26% 24% 20%

33%24% 22%

8% 17%2% 10% 18%

7% 5%14% 6% 10% 7% 4% 6% 13% 12% 6% 7% 9% 10% 10% 8%

19% 21%1% 2%

40%61%

15% 21% 18%5% 3%

17% 24% 18% 25% 16% 10% 18%

4% 2% 3% 1% 4% 10% 3% 6% 4% 5% 4% 4% 0% 6% 3% 5% 8% 5% 3% 1% 3%

Support for joining NATO – by geographyDo you personally support or oppose BiH NATO membership?

Region Entity Nationality Type of

settlement Personal income

66%55%

60% 64% 68%49%

64% 62%

18%41% 40% 50%

24% 21% 26% 28% 20% 26% 18% 26%43%

8% 16% 22%8%

26% 23%

8% 14% 4% 6% 12% 9% 9% 0% 5% 9% 4% 0%20%

6% 10% 7%

19%46%

5% 2% 4% 2%

10% 16%

0%21% 14%

4% 5% 2% 4% 11%0% 7% 2% 0% 0% 5% 0% 5% 0% 2% 6%

’t w

Support joining of BiH to NATO – by party preferencesDo you personally support or oppose BiH NATO membership?

Completely support

Somewhat support

Likely voters in the October 2010 elections

If general elections were held next weekend, how likely is it that you would vote?

Previous elections (only those who could vote)

56%47%

23%30%

7% 11%22%

10% 9% 9%

4% 2% 0%

46% 50%

25% 23%30% 25%

7% 4%11% 11%

10% 5%11% 10%

4% 3% 3% 3%B

Likely voters – by entity and ethnicityIf general elections were held next weekend, how likely is it that you would vote?

certainly vote

probably vote

probably would not vote

certainly would not vote

Closest political optionWhen taken all into account, what political parties represent the political option that is closest to you?

Reasons to vote for a political party What are the two main reasons why you would vote for a political party?

0% 10% 6% 7% 10% 2% 5% 0% 0% 29% 17% 14%

16% 12% 8% 0% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 33% 19% 4%

5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 29% 0% 25% 20% 18%

16% 0% 7% 19% 1% 10% 2% 0% 0% 17% 17% 10%

17% 9% 0% 11% 9% 11% 0% 0% 0% 10% 18% 15%

19% 0% 20% 7% 4% 0% 2% 0% 0% 11% 12% 25%

6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 33% 6% 28%

7% 6% 7% 6% 2% 0% 0% 8% 6% 15% 3%40%

41%0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 16% 13% 28%

15% 3% 9% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 6% 25% 13% 19%

3% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%

STRANKA ZA BIH

SBB BIH

HDZ 1990

NAŠA STRANKA

“second choice”

“Firs

ice”

Ratings– Second choice by party preferences (only FBiH)If you somehow decided to vote for another political party, for which party would you vote?

“Second choice”

“Firs

ice”

0% 0% 0%

19% 19% 6%

12%21% 19%

10% 14%

0% 0% 4% 2%

20%28%

0% 0% 0%

10% 12% 10%

PDP RS

Ratings–second choice (only RS) – by party preferences (only RS)If you somehow decided to vote for another political party, for which party would you vote?

Opinions on Opinions on BiHBiH’’ss territorial arrangementsterritorial arrangements

Which of the following best describes your attitude about the territorial arrangement of Bosnia and Herzegovina? - whole sample

Which of the following best describes your attitude about the territorial arrangement of Bosnia and Herzegovina? - by entity

Which of the following best describes your attitude about the territorial arrangement of Bosnia and Herzegovina? - by ethnicity

Which of the following best describes your attitude about the territorial arrangement of Bosnia and Herzegovina? – by party preference

Entities should be abolished as the level of government

Arrangement of the state should remain unchanged

Bosnia and Herzegovina should be divided into three independent States

Bosnia and Herzegovina should be divided into up to 5 or 6 economic regions, which should have a great deal of autonomy

Third, Croatian entity should be formed

64% 64% 76% 71%

40%60%

6% 11% 7% 6%27%

54% 55%

31% 44%

23%10%

45% 40% 42%

11% 18%

5% 7% 11% 7%

29% 22%

14% 4%33%

18%35%

39%11% 4%

32%11% 9%

13% 16% 7%

11% 13% 7%22%

7% 15% 12% 4% 9% 22%6%

17%2% 11%

18% 11% 11% 10% 14%

8% 9% 6% 5% 8% 5% 2% 3%

0% 2% 3% 5%19%

11% 5%

4% 4% 3% 4% 1% 2% 1% 5% 4% 15% 6% 1%0%

5%0% 0%

6% 3% 8%

’t w

When you think of the BiH economy, which party do you believe is best able to solve the issues?

When you think of social sector reforms, which party do you believe is best able to solve the issues?

When you think of corruption and organized crime, which party do you believe is best able to solve the issues?

When you think of education system reforms, which party do you believe is best able to solve the issues?

In your opinion, what is the bigger priority for the RS at the moment? –only RS respondents

Public opinion poll in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH ... · Republika Srpska (22%) and in the Brcko...

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