Post on 16-Nov-2014
description
Research Proposal
Devastating Cyclone “Aila” and its Socio-Economic Impact
on Coastal Region of Bangladesh
Submission Date: 20/07/2009
Submitted To: Submitted By:
Professor Dr. Md. Saiful Islam Md. Naimur Rasheed
Head of Economics Discipline, Student No: 061538
Khulna University, Bangladesh Khulna University
Abstract
Natural disaster is very much common in Bangladesh. Bangladesh is not excluded
from its affect. Every year we usually face different types of disaster. Cyclone is
one of them. Aila in 2009 is more or less exceptional than the previous disaster
occurred in Bangladesh. The cyclone was the fifth natural disaster to affect
Bangladesh in the past twelve months. Previously, two monsoon floods and cyclone
Sidr had caused extensive damage to agricultural production and physical assets
mainly at coastal region. The successive occurrence of these events is a reminder of
the extreme vulnerability of the country to the very frequent hydro-meteorological
hazards that threaten Bangladesh, and which are likely to increase due to world
climate change.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Framework
1.1 Introduction
Cyclone is a tropical storm or atmospheric turbulence involving circular motion of winds, occurs in
Bangladesh as a natural hazard. The cyclone Aila formed in Bay of Bengal battered Bangladesh's
southwestern coast on May 25, leaving at least 179 people dead and over three million affected in
about a dozen of districts in the coastal areas. The tropics can be regarded as the region lying between
30°N latitude and 30°S latitude. All the tropical seas of the earth with the exception of the south
Atlantic and southeast Pacific give birth to deadly atmospheric phenomena known as tropical
cyclones. On an average, 80 tropical cyclones are formed every year all over the globe (BUET, 2008).
1.5 Theoretical Framework
Both qualitative and quantitative endeavors will be handled differently in the lines of inquiry. The
author tries to accomplish it by following ways:
Figure: Theoretical Framework
Aila
Aila Affected Community
Identifying the losses and
damages
Hiusing Agriculture ( live stock,
Rice, fish)
Find out the pre and post Aila
situation
Income
Expenditure
Housing condition
Food security
Employment
Poverty Find out the problem created by
the socio-economic losses and
damage
1.3 Relevance of the Research
Bangladesh is a disaster prone country that is affected almost every year by a natural disaster of some
kind. Located between the Himalayas and the Bay of Bengal and with three mighty rivers (Ganges,
Brahmaputra, and Meghna) converging on its territory, Bangladesh is prone to floods, torrential rains,
erosion, and cyclones. Over a period of 100 years, 508 cyclones have affected the Bay of Bengal
region, of which 17 percent made landfall in Bangladesh. A severe cyclone occurs almost once every
three years. Although the frequency of cyclones is not unusual compared to other cyclone hotspot
countries, the impact it causes stands out: 53 percent of the cyclones that claimed more than 5,000
lives took place in Bangladesh (GOB, 2008). This research may help to know the overall
socioeconomic scenario after the devastating Aila occured, so it will be very relevent topics for study.
2. Problem Statement
Bangladesh is a least-developed, low-income food-deficit country with an estimated 40 percent of the
population living below the poverty line. Of these, 56 million people live on 31 US dollar cents per
day or 2,122 kcal/capita/day and 36 million live on 27 US dollar cents a day or 1,805 kcal/capita/day
(FAO, 2008). Bangladesh is currently facing a creeping inflation, rising budget deficit and foreign
exchange challenges. On 25 May 2009 Cyclone Aila hit the south-western parts of Bangladesh.
According to the localPress, some 2.3 million people were affected by Aila, many of them stranded in
flooded villages. Storm surges in Bangladesh flooded agricultural areas with salty water. Home to
roughly 25,000 residents, the coastal island Nijhum Dwip was reported to be completely submerged.
In this circumstances this research could be exemplify how severely Aila affect the socioeconomy of
Bangladesh coastal region. And it may help to consider the step towards this type of hazards.
3. Purpose of the Study
The purpose of the study is found out the scenario of this devastating cyclone and its socioeconomic
affect on coastal people of Bangladesh.
As we know hundreds of thousands displaced by a cyclone Aila could be homeless until the monsoon
season ends in three months, aid workers and the UN warn, despite government assurances most have
returned home. The storm destroyed mort than 4,000 kms of roads and embankments, thousands of
houses, livestock and other properties in eight districts in southwestern coasts, with affected areas still
being flooded twice daily at high tide which is contaminating drinking water.
Broadly the author aims to highlight at following cases:
To identify the damage and losses of the socio-economic sectors.
To ascertain the problem created by the socio-economic losses.
4. Literature Review
4.1 Review of the related literature
The researcer will take the literature review from various books, reports, journals, magazine, seminar
papers, suing GIS application and various webaddresses that focus on the issue will be studied during
preparation of this rsearch.
4.2 Related literature
Heather Blackwell, the head of Oxfam in Bangladesh said the homes of 75,000 families were still
damaged, with a third of those families living in ''camp-like'' settlements. Others were living in schools
and cyclone shelters, she said. ''Around 75,000 families are displaced, with around five people on
average in each family'', Blackwell said. ''About 25,000 families are living in long lines along the
embankments. Very few can return to their homes. I think it's very unlikely that we will see much
movement of people before the end of the monsoon season''. The Food and disaster minister Abdur
Razzak said the economic loss from Aila estimated at 18.85 billion taka (about 269.28 million US
dollars) ''The cyclone caused 18.85 billion taka loss, including losses due to damage of rural
infrastructures, schools, crops and livestock'',
5. Questions and Hypotheses
5.1 Research question
Since the perceived damages and consequences are known, the research question will be as follows:
Objectives Research questions Expected output
To identify the
damage and losses of
the socio-economic sectors
1 .What types of damage are done
during Sidr in terms of housing,
agriculture?
Identifying damages and
losses of socio-economic
sector in terms of housing, agriculture.
To ascertain the
problem created by
the socio-economic losses.
1. What is their economic
condition?
2. How their livelihood pattern? 3. What are the problems created in
socio-economic sectors?
4. How do the affected people maintain their family in that period?
Income pattern and source,
Expenditure, housing
condition, Food security, safety and comfort, health
condition, employment and
their problems.
5.2 Sub questions
Our research will consist of a qualitative part which serves to identify which changes and
consequences found in the literature are relevant for our research. Then some sub questions will be
addressed:
5.3 Null Hypothesis
The null hypothesis will be tested in research as the Aila has no socio economic impact on coastal
region of Bangladesh.
5.4 Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis will be tested in research as the Aila has a significant socio economic
impact on coastal region of Bangladesh.
6. Research Strategy – Methodological Framework
In the context of an epistemological discussion, our opinion is that qualitative and quantitative
methods are complementary to each other. Both qualitative and quantitative research strategies will be
combined in this research in a consecutive order. Since we know the perceived affects and the
consequences, a qualitative strategy will be applied first in order to clarify, explore and define the
concepts. This qualitative part of researchers’ research is of exploratory and inductive nature.
6.1 Research Design and Data collection
Data will be collected using semi-structured interviews and a survey. In a chronological order, the
following actions will lead to the corresponding results.
1. Semi-structured interviews > Qualitative data
2. Analysis of qualitative data > Concepts and Hypotheses
3. Literature study > Verification and refinement of concepts and hypotheses
4. Survey > Quantitative data
5. Analysis of quantitative data > Conclusions on population level
6.2 Data Analysis
Qualitative strategy
Based on these concepts, dependent and independent variables and, subsequently, hypotheses can be
formulated. After refined by a literature study, the final concepts will be displayed in a matrix that
clarifies dimensions and indicators.
Quantitative strategy
The quantitative part consists of a survey and will be analyzed using SPSS. Because the hypothesis
and conceptual model are not clear yet, it is not possible to determine which techniques will be used.
6.3 Sample Strategy
Following Sampling technique may be considered in this research-
Population size
Stratified random Sampling
Different income groups
Proportional Random Sampling
Final target group
6.4 Research quality indicators
Qualitative strategy
The quality indicators below will be used for evaluating the qualitative part of the research
1. Credibility 2.Confirmability 3.Dependability
Quantitative strategy
The quality indicators below will be used for evaluating the quantitative part of the research on
validity and reliability.
1. Reliability
2. Validity
In the context of our quantitative research, validity can be divided into the two different types that are
described below:
- Measurement validity
- External validity
- Criterion validity
7.Limitations and Delimitations
7.1 Limitations:
Time constraints of the survey may be treat as a limitation for an ethnographic study. Because of vast
study area and a huge impact of Aila the observation through survey is too much dificult.
Communication that will not be revealed during observations. Being an outsider may also limit what is revealed to the researcher.
7.2 Delimitations:
The author choosing not to observe multiple samples of affected population, even though such
comparisons might be valuable, in order to allow more depth of understanding regarding the group on which the researcher focus. Additionally, the author will not use structured interviews in order to
minimise his obtrusiveness and influence on the sample.
8. Significance of the study
The coastal area has suffered a financial loss of about Taka 1,020 crore and a production loss of crops
of nearly 3.75 lakh tonnes as over 2.50 lakh hectares of land had been submerged due to the recent
devastating cyclone Aila. The Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) disclosed this after conducting a final assessment on the extent of damage to the crops. Various standing crops, including
Aus seedbeds, Aus paddy, Boro paddy, jute, chilli, vegetables, nut, palm, mung, betel leaf, banana,
papaya and mango, have been damaged as the cyclone Aila hit the south-western parts of the country.
Meanwhile, this type of study may help to identify how this damage socio economically impact on the
coastal regions people.
And the research also can be treat as a side document for further study on this area.
This study can promote what type of steps or initiatives should be taken on this circumstences.
References
BUET (2008). Field investigation on the impact of cyclone Sidr in the coastal region of
Bangladesh.
FAO (2008).Food Assistance to cyclone affected populations of southern Bangladesh.
GOB, UNDP, World Bank (1993) multipurpose cyclone Shelter Programme. Executive
Summary of Final Report.
MoFDM (2008). "National plan for disaster management."
Piddington, H. (1848). The sailor's horn-book for the law of storms.
WFP (2008). Crop and food supply assessment mission.
WHO (2007). Communicable disease risk assessment and interventions
And like that other references will be include at the time of prepration of reference portion of main
research.
Appendixes
Research questionnaire, protocols of interview of target population and various tables of research will
be included in appendix portion. For example following tables have been shown here
Figure: Research Gape
Research Gape
To find out the existing socio-economic
condition
To ascertain the problem created by the
socio-economic losses.
The cyclone over Bangladesh at a glance
Date and Year Maximum
wind speed (km/hr)
Storm surge
Height (Meter)
Death Toll
11May 1965 161 3.7-7.6 19,279
15 December 1965 217 2.4-3.6 873
01 October 1966 139 6.0-6.7 850
12 November 1970 224 6.0-10.0 300,000
25 May 1985 154 3.0-4.6 11,069
29 April 1991 225 6.0-7.6 138,882
19 May 1997 232 3.1-4.6 155
15 November 2007 223 6.1-9.1 3363
25 May 2009 170 5.2-10.0 400
(Source: Bangladesh Metrological Department, 2009)