President Donald Trump:

how and what next?

Dr Tom Packer

Rothermere American Institute

thomas.packer@rai.ox.ac.uk

Tuesday 28 March 2017

Summary

Polling error how/where/why?

Who voted for Trump?

Why did they?

How Popular is Trump?

What to worry about/hope for

Trump 45.9% Clinton 48%

3

How wrong were the polls

Year

Error in last 7

days of

election cycle Year

Error in last 7

days

1980 7.56 % 2000 4.31

1984 1.51 2004 1.44

1988 0.36 2008 0.58

1992 0.86 2012 2.98

1996 3.22 2016 1.07

Average 2.39 %

4

Where the errors were

5

Where the polls were wrong- white working

class surge for Trump - key to polling error

6

Non-college educated whites

overrepresented in the swing states Swing states had an above average share of white

noncollege voters

STATE

TIPPING

-POINT

CHANC

E

WHITE

NON-

COLLEGE

SHARE

Florida 17.6% 40.1% –

Pennsylvania 12.3 49.8 –

Michigan 11.7 52.5 –

North

Carolina11.2 40.4 –

Virginia 6.0 36.7 –

Colorado 6.0 41.6 –

Ohio 5.2 53.3 –

Wisconsin 4.8 57.2 –

Minnesota 3.8 53.7 –

Nevada 3.7 41.9 –

Arizona 2.8 41.6 –

New Mexico 2.8 27.5 –

New

Hampshire2.3 56.5 –

Georgia 2.3 34.2 –

Iowa 1.3 62.0 –

Weighted

avg. of

tipping-point

states

45.3 –

United

States41.6 – 7

The weighted average includes states where the tipping-point chance was below Iowa’s 1.3 percent.

Trump’s luck

8

What made the

popular vote

(almost) a tie?

9

Ethnic Revolution that wasn’t

10

Pattern stayed the same?

11

‘I love the uneducated’ – non-

college educated whites gave

Trump the White House

12

Non-college educated whites

key in the swing states

13

Trump’s youth vote?

14

Why did they?

15

Hillary Clinton advert ‘Mirrors’

16

Hillary Clinton advertising more

personal less policy orientated

17

Pol science models

fundamentals prevailed?

18

Was it ‘personality’/emails?

19

Trump won on policy not personality: which

candidate has the right temperament?

Clinton Trump

Other/

no

answer

Both do

5%20% 77% 3%

Only

Clinton

does

49%

90% 5% 5%

Only

Trump

does

29%

2% 97% 1%

Neither

does

14%

12% 67% 21%

20

Trump won on policy not

personality II TRUMP’S MARGIN AMONG VOTERS WHO RATED …

STATE

ONLY CLINTON

FAVORABLE

ONLY TRUMP

FAVORABLE

BOTH

UNFAVORABLE

Kentucky -98 +100 +46

Georgia -98 +97 +39

Florida -98 +98 +37

Texas -99 +97 +37

Wisconsin -98 +99 +37

N. Carolina -97 +97 +36

Missouri -96 +98 +35

Indiana -97 +92 +32

Ohio -98 +97 +30

S. Carolina -100 +99 +30

Pennsylvania -98 +98 +25

Nevada -97 +95 +23

Iowa -96 +98 +21

Michigan -98 +97 +21

Minnesota -98 +98 +20

Utah -92 +95 +19

Arizona -97 +96 +17

Colorado -97 +96 +13

Virginia -97 +98 +12

New Mexico -94 +96 +10

N. Hampshire -97 +94 +9

Washington -98 +97 +5

New Jersey -93 +96 +3

Maine -97 +99 +2

Oregon -97 +98 0

Average -97 +97 +22 21

Clinton TrumpOther/ no

answer

Foreign

policy

13%

60% 33% 7%

Immigration

13%33% 64% 3%

Economy

52%52% 41% 7%

Terrorism

18%40% 57% 3%

22

Most important Issue Facing the Country (CNN)

Immigration advert

‘Two Americas’

23

General Election II

24

The nearly Presidents?

25

Rick Santorum

Pat Buchanan

A western backlash –

not made in the US

26

Values voters remain (mostly)

loyal

27

Values voters II-why

28

Judge Antonin

Scalia

Is Trump Popular?

29

Trump approval

All adults 43% 51%

Voters

(registered

or likely)

47% 49%

—

SURVEY

METHOD

Live caller 42% 52%

Online or

automated47% 48%

30

Most unpopular president at this stage

since records started. Will he do/achieve

nothing?

31

Big shift in people thinking the

country on the ‘right track’

32

Disapproval of his

‘unique’ style

33

What to fear/hope for?

34

People’s fears/hopes of Trump –

Standard GOP Agenda

35

Judge Neil Gorusch

Vice-President Mike Pence

Protectionism/immigration/

Anti-interventionism?

36

Attorney General

Jeff Sessions

Fascism/right-wing

authoritarian?

37Stephen Bannon, Assistant to the President

Corrupt?

38

Authoritarian/breakdown of

liberal norms?

39

Incompetent/over his head?

40

Good news for Britain?

41

Conclusions

Polling errors were small but disproportionately in the

right states for Trump.

Trump was saved from disaster and outperformed polls

due to gaining enormous support from anti

immigration/anti-free trade white working class voters.

Early signs are unpopular/badly organised

administration, but early days. Trump’s policies

continue to be more popular than he is.

Important to identify what aspect of Trump is most

worrying – different concerns would imply a different

style of opposition. 42

QUESTIONS?