´

20

25

30

35

Exp

ort

s o

ve

r G

WP

(%

)

-20

-10

0

10

20

An

nu

al G

row

th R

ate

(%

)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

GWP Growth Trade Growth Exports over GWP

Economic Growth Up, Trade Down.

A New Disturbing Pattern?

Source: UNCTAD Calculations

1995-2000 3.65

Source: UNCTAD Stats

-40 -20 0 20 40. Growth (%) as (%) of Trade Decline

IT Equipment

Textiles and Apparel

Motor Vehicles

Mining

Machinery

Metals

Chemicals

Other Manufacturing

Agriculture

Services

Energy Related

Not only energy products, trade growth has been negative in all sectors

Energy Losses?

Source: UNCTAD calculations

7 Source: UNCTAD calculations based on the UN Comtrade database.

0

5

10

15

20

US

$ T

rilli

on

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Goods Services

Trade of Goods and Services

Source: UNCTAD calculations based on the UN Comtrade database.

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Perc

enta

ge

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Services Developing Services Developed

Goods Developing Goods Developed

Export Growth

A very large part of world trade is clustered around three regions…

…and during 2015, trade has

declined in all regions across all

trade flows (however with some

differences)

´

9 Source: UNCTAD calculations based on Comtrade data.

0

5

10

15

20

US

$ T

rilli

on

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Distribution of World TradeDeveloped-Developing Countries

North-North North-South

South-North South-South

35.92

40.99

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

DevelopingeconomiesExportsingoodsandservices(%ofGDP)

developingeconomies

developingeconomiesexcludingChina

´

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

MEGA-REGIONALSPercentageoftotalworldimports

(1995-2015)

EU28(EuropeanUnion)

NAFTA(NorthAmericanFree

TradeAgreement)

TPP(Trans-PacificPartnership)

(undernegotiation)

TTIP(Trans-Atlantic

Trade&InvestmentPartnership)

Linear(EU28(EuropeanUnion))

Linear(NAFTA(NorthAmerican

FreeTradeAgreement))

Linear(TPP(Trans-Pacific

Partnership)(under

negotiation))Linear(TTIP(Trans-Atlantic

Trade&InvestmentPartnership))

Imports from intra-group Imports from rest of the world

´

There is no

room for

mistakes

Moving from a reactionary to a visionary policy

•

•

•

•

•

•

´