PowerPoint PresentationSource: UNCTAD calculations based on the UN Comtrade database. 7 0 5 10 15 20...
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Transcript of PowerPoint PresentationSource: UNCTAD calculations based on the UN Comtrade database. 7 0 5 10 15 20...
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20
25
30
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Exp
ort
s o
ve
r G
WP
(%
)
-20
-10
0
10
20
An
nu
al G
row
th R
ate
(%
)
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
GWP Growth Trade Growth Exports over GWP
Economic Growth Up, Trade Down.
A New Disturbing Pattern?
Source: UNCTAD Calculations
1995-2000 3.65
Source: UNCTAD Stats
-40 -20 0 20 40. Growth (%) as (%) of Trade Decline
IT Equipment
Textiles and Apparel
Motor Vehicles
Mining
Machinery
Metals
Chemicals
Other Manufacturing
Agriculture
Services
Energy Related
Not only energy products, trade growth has been negative in all sectors
Energy Losses?
Source: UNCTAD calculations
7 Source: UNCTAD calculations based on the UN Comtrade database.
0
5
10
15
20
US
$ T
rilli
on
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Goods Services
Trade of Goods and Services
Source: UNCTAD calculations based on the UN Comtrade database.
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Perc
enta
ge
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Services Developing Services Developed
Goods Developing Goods Developed
Export Growth
A very large part of world trade is clustered around three regions…
…and during 2015, trade has
declined in all regions across all
trade flows (however with some
differences)
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9 Source: UNCTAD calculations based on Comtrade data.
0
5
10
15
20
US
$ T
rilli
on
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Distribution of World TradeDeveloped-Developing Countries
North-North North-South
South-North South-South
35.92
40.99
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
DevelopingeconomiesExportsingoodsandservices(%ofGDP)
developingeconomies
developingeconomiesexcludingChina
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0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
MEGA-REGIONALSPercentageoftotalworldimports
(1995-2015)
EU28(EuropeanUnion)
NAFTA(NorthAmericanFree
TradeAgreement)
TPP(Trans-PacificPartnership)
(undernegotiation)
TTIP(Trans-Atlantic
Trade&InvestmentPartnership)
Linear(EU28(EuropeanUnion))
Linear(NAFTA(NorthAmerican
FreeTradeAgreement))
Linear(TPP(Trans-Pacific
Partnership)(under
negotiation))Linear(TTIP(Trans-Atlantic
Trade&InvestmentPartnership))
Imports from intra-group Imports from rest of the world
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There is no
room for
mistakes
Moving from a reactionary to a visionary policy
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