Post on 20-May-2015
POWER :DRIVING INDIA
BY
SUDIPTA SAR
AGENDA
1. Overview – observing industry
2. Industry structure
3. Sectorial overview
4. Industry Analysis
5. Conclusion
GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Correlation between GDP & Power generation
Correlations GDP POWER
GDP Pearson Correlation 1.000 o.396Sig. (2-tailed)
.958N 10.000 10
Power Pearson Correlation .396 1.000Sig. (2-tailed) .958
N 10 10.000
Indian Energy Scenarios: 2015
Coal60.44%
Gas14.49%
Diesel0.48%
Nuclear5.06%
Hydro15.96%
Solar thermal0.40%
Biomass1.19%
Wind1.99%
Gas14.49%
Diesel0.48%
Nuclear14.60%
Hydro15.96%
Solar thermal0.40%
Biomass1.19%
Wind1.99%
Coal50.90%
Same Fuel Mix as now
Aggressive Nuclear Capacity Addition
• Reduction in annual coal consumption ~ 100 Million Tons• Reduction in annual CO2 Emissions > 170 Million Tons
Primary energy consumption per capita
7
India - Low penetration and underserved market
• Low penetration providing significant opportunities for future growth
Over 400 million people without appropriate access to electricity
14
,24
0
8,2
31
8,4
59
7,4
42
6,7
56
6,4
25
2,3
40
1,6
84
61
8
18
,40
8
022
000
Ca
na
da
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Fra
nce
Jap
an
Ge
rma
ny
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Ru
ssia
nF
ed
era
tion
Bra
zil
Ch
ina
Ind
ia
(Kw
h/ye
ar)
Source: World Energy Outlook, 2006; Human Development Report 2007-08, Source: China Electricity Council, China Power Year Book, Government of India, Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation
Per Capita Consumption of Electricity
Large investment required to achieve Govt. target of per capita consumption of 1,000 KWh by 2012
India China
Installed capacity in 2006 (GW)
132 622
Per capita consumption (per kWh)
618 1,684
Capacity growth rate over the past 6 years
4.4% 11.8%
Capacity addition in past 6 years (GW)
30 303
Comparison with China
POWER DEMAND SUPPLY GAP (BU)
Effect of the gap:
1. Industries under utilised
2. Lac of irrigation –lower agriculture growth
↓↓ Lower GDP0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
ENERGYDEMAND
ENERGYSUPPLY
Widening demand supply gap
Inability of Centre/ State to meet capacity addition
Power sector reforms
Huge opportunity for private sector participation
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
$2,300 Bn
$1,900 Bn
High Investment DemandScenario (3%)
Low InvestmentDemand Scenario (2%)
Historic Future
Private Capital Mobilized in Power Sector
Gap covered by public financing, self -financing, donor funding, and rationing.
Tot
al P
ower
In
vest
men
t ($
Bil
lion
)
Cumulative Sum ($Bn)
Source: : World Bank, IEA, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Emerging Markets Group
Financing required for the Power Sector in India 1990 - 2020
Indian market environment Indian market environment – – Demand for Power Investment - a large Demand for Power Investment - a large
Growing Gap? Growing Gap?
SOURCE : IDEAs workshop Delhi
Major Stages in Electricity Sector
NTPC 1975-90 Increased Access & Federal intervention
Growth 1950–75 Major Growth, Public Ownership
IPP Era 1991-98 Private Power Projects
E Act 2003 Competition
WB Model 1996-2002 Orissa & others
11
COMPLEX INDUSTRY STRUCTURE WITH MULTIPLE STAKEHOLDERS
Power is a concurrent subject Multiple stakeholders with different functions
• Sets the vision (Vision 2012)
• Frames laws (Electricity Act, 2003)
• Frames taxation policies
• Sets investment guidelines (FI sectoral limits etc)
• New National Electricity Policy
• New National Tariff Policy (Draft)• Owns and controls State Electricity
Boards
• Constitutes state regulatory body
• Determines extent of subsidies
• Significant presence across the system– National Thermal Power Corporation – Power Grid Corporation of India– National Hydro Power Corporation
Central government
30 State governments
Public utilities
SEB’s (30)
Central public utilities
*
*
* *
*
*
*
*
*
• Accounts for 11% of generation
• Present in distribution (e.g., Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Orissa parts of Gujarat)
• Two large players – TPC and REL, several small players - IPPs (e.g., GMR, Torrent ) and Distcoms (e.g., AESC, CESC)
Private sector
20th Dec 2005 IDEAs workshop Delhi
Competition in Power (Bulk / Retail)
Regulator
Market
SOURCES
13
Conventional View of the Industry Structure
14
The Emerging View - anchored in competition
THERMAL POWERTHERMAL POWER
• Oldest sector in india • Contribution: -65% of total electricity
generation• Generates :-86015MW (as on March
31,2007), By 2011- expected 78000MW
• Key players:- NTPC, RPL,DVC,PGCL,TATA POWER
• GOVT. INITIATIVES: -• proposal of ten UMPPs each of capacity
4000MW (in 11th five year plan) ,projects awarded to Reliance Power & Tata Power
Hydro-Electricity
• Inferred potential > 120 GW
• Installed capacity 30 GW
• Most big projects are in North-Eastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Uttaranchal and J&K
• Problems of rehabilitation and resettlement with large projects
• Environmental issues
• Water sharing agreements with neighbors
National Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India
Natural Gas
Indore
- onwards to India
TAPS
TAPS(across water)
CENTGAS
- to Pakistan
Indore
Baroda333333333
KarachiGwadar
222222222
444444444
Gas supplyConsumptioncenter
New Delhi
Multan
1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar1 Turkmenistan 2 Iran 3 Oman 4 Qatar
111111111
Pakistan
Afghanistan
Iran
Turkmenistan
QatarIndia
Oman
Gas Authority of India Limited
India’s Gas Pipelines
Possible Gas Imports (Tongia & Arunachalam, 1999)
WIND ENERGY
Denmark
In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2) in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2) and US US
Nuclear Power: The Present Status
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1969 1973 1981 1984 1986 1991 1992 1993 1995 2000 2005 2006 2015
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity (M
W)
Planned
Presently installed
• 123 Agreement• 123 Agreement
India has been pursuing a 3-stage Nuclear Power Program. The first stage - Pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWRs) and associated fuel cycle facilities. The second stage - Fast breeder reactors (FBRs) backed by reprocessing plants and plutonium based fuel fabrication plants. The third stage - thorium-uranium-233 cycle. Utilization of thorium.
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