Planning Australia’s major cities:

Dorte EkelundExecutive DirectorMajor Cities UnitPresentation to the NATSTATS 2010 Conference, Sydney16 September 2010

Creating an evidence base

Federal Government involvement in cities

- State of Australian Cities 2010- National urban policy

What do we need to know?- Defining urban- Indicators for effective urban

policy and planning What are we measuring?

- Reliability and consistency- Causal versus correlated data

Outline

Transforming our Cities 1950s

- Housing 1970s

- Services 1990s

- Regeneration 2007 +

- Infrastructure Australia- Major Cities Unit- COAG Reform

Pyrmont Bridge 2006

A national objective for cities that they are:- Globally competitive- Productive- Sustainable- Liveable- Socially inclusive

National criteria for strategic planning systems - State governments to meet criteria by

2012- Linked to federal infrastructure funding

National planning criteria for cities

Developing national urban policy

Phase 1 •Gather the evidence•State of Australian Cities 2010

Phase 2 •Prepare options •A strategy for Australian Cities

A national snapshot of Australia’s cities

An evidence base to:- generate debate- present challenges- highlight trends- measure progress- develop policy

http://www/infrastructure.gov.au/mcu

State of Australian Cities 2010

Defining ‘urban’ - What is a city?

Australia: an ‘urban’ nation

75 % population live in 17 major cities over 100,000

82% in cities over 30,000

2 Cities > 3 million

39% of total population

3 Cities 1-3 million

22%

Cities 250,000 -1 million

8%

Cities 100,000-250,000

6%

Cities 50,000 - 100,000

5%

Cities 30,000 - 50,000

2%

Rest of Australia18%

Where are city boundaries? Spatial aggregation

- Statistical v Local Government v Metropolitan v Conurbation

- Cities within cities- Expanding urban boundaries- Peri-urban areas

Policy implications- Tracking change over time- Scale- Density

- ‘Per capita’ indicators

Themes- Productivity- Sustainability- Liveability

What do we need to know?- Where are we now?- Where are we going?

What are we measuring?- Gaps- Overlaps- Interrelationships- Causes or correlations- Interpreting the data

City indicators

SydneyMelbourneBrisbanePerthAdelaideHobartDarwinCanberra

20562056

2056

2056

2056

205620562056

2026

2006

2026

2006

2026

2006

2026

20062026

2006

2006 2006 2006

Population growth

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2009) Population Projections 2006-2100. ABS cat 3220.0

Population projections Multiple projections

- ABS v Treasury IGR 3 v States v Agencies (eg. Health)

Policy sensitive projections- Components of growth- Projected v Planned v Targets- eg. Fertility v Immigration v

Labour force Spatial projections

- Combining location and nature of growth

What are we measuring?

Economic importance of cities 76% of employment 80% of economic activity (GDP) 84% of economic growth (2003-2008) Gateways to the global economy

Productivity

Isolating factors in the city system- Eg. Urban congestion

Dangers of extrapolating state data to cities - Eg. Queensland

Identifying contribution of cities to regional economic activity

Eg. mining and agriculture (research, distribution, administration, finance)

What are we measuring?

PerthBrisbane

Sydney

Melbourne

Adelaide

0 60 100GDP per Capita ($US ‘000)SOAC 2010 p. 18

Contribution of cities to productivity

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gg

(to

tal C

O2

equi

vale

nt e

mis

sion

s)

International shipping

International aviation

Domestic marine

Domestic aviation

Rail

Road

Total Greenhouse Contribution of Australian Transport

Note: total warming effects - includes both directly radiative gases and indirectly radiative gases. Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2009), BITRE estimates

Base case projections

Emissions for international transport, to and from Australia, are estimated using half of total fuel use.

Sustainability

Recent trends in car use

What are we measuring?

Source: Stanley, J. 2010 Moving People

Measures of progress

Houses are getting bigger...

but households are getting smaller!

1994

–95

1995

–96

1996

–97

1997

–98

1999

–00

2000

–01

2002

–03

2003

–04

2005

–062.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

Year

WAWAQLD

VICNSW

SA

NSW

VICQLD

WASA

Bedrooms per dwelling

Persons per household

Source: BITRE analysis of ABS 2007 Cat. No. 4130.0.55.001

Liveability

Housing diversity

What are we measuring?

Community wellbeing indicators Need for indicators

Accessibility Natural landscapes Quality open space Safety Legibility

What’s important to whom? Real Perceived Quality Quantity

Indices City indices Issue- specific indices

SEIFA VAMPIRE

Social inclusion Resources +

Participation- Choice- Opportunity - Capability

Interpreting the data

Brisbane 2006 Dodson and Sipe (2008) Unsettling the suburbs. Urban Research Program, Griffith University

Conclusion Limitations

- Data gaps - especially about the

contribution of cities to productivity, sustainability, liveability

- Lack of comparability- Different scales- Different methodologies- Different purposes

Conclusion Need a suite of indicators

- Consistent geographies- Consistent time series data- More open data sources- Measures of progress not just of

problems- Separating causes from correlations- Better appreciation of

interrelationships between built environment and economic, social and environmental outcomes

- Considering alternative futures

“If you think you know all about a city, it’s probably just a town.” Peter Carey, 30 Days in Sydney.

Pyrmont Bridge c1900

Complex systems

Thank you

Pyrmont Bridge 2006

Dynamic systems